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Asymptotic statistics

Chapter 6 Further Research

6.2 Asymptotic statistics

One goal of further research is to remove (A2) from the list of assumptions in Theorems 5.1.1 and 5.1.3. If it is possible to prove the asymptotic

lim m→∞ 1 #Ck+2m X g∈Ck Θ(x) k+ 2m = Z f dµ0

without (A2) then equidistribution with respect to µ0, the measure of maximal entropy, holds for each non-trivial conjugacy class inF.

We have considered statistical properties for free groups acting convex co- compactly on hyperbolic space. It is worth investigating whether these statistical properties hold in the more general setting of negatively curved convex co-compact surfaces. We first give some historical context for the problem.

Let M be a compact surface with constant negative curvature and gt :

T1M → T1M the geodesic flow. Let λ(γ) be the least period of a closed orbit γ of the flow and byλf(γ) the integral of a H¨older continuous functionf :T1M →Ron γ so that

λf(γ) =

Z λ(γ)

0

f(gtx)dt

forx∈γ. Bowen [3] showed that the closed orbits of the geodesic flow are equidis- tributed according to µ the measure of maximal entropy. By equidistribution, we mean the following limit holds

lim T→∞ P {γ:λ(γ)≤T}λf(γ) P {γ:λ(γ)≤T}λ(γ) → Z f dµ.

Since each conjugacy classes in π1(M, x) has an associated closed geodesic. Thus when we consider asymptotics in conjugacy classes we instead study based geodesic loops in the manifold.

LetM be a negatively curved convex co-compact surface (or, again, a man- ifold if there are closed geodesics whose lengths have irrational ratio) whose funda- mental groups are free. For a given basepointx∈M, letCbe a non-trivial conjugacy class inπ1(M, x) and consider the set of geodesic loopsγg based atxfor eachg∈C.

We ask whether this restricted set of geodesics is asymptotically equidistributed with respect to the measure of maximal entropy projected toM. We can expect to use a symbolic approximation technique developed in [50] for orbit counting in the context of hyperbolic flows on compact manifolds. This approximation was adapted in [51] for orbit counting and, importantly, a refined directional asymptotic in the harder setting ofZkcovers of compact negatively curved manifolds. Here the results

concern orbit segments of the geodesic flow onT1M, but the asymptotic statements push down to geodesic loops in M. A potential next step is to consider compact negatively curved surfaces.

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