Some writers claim that Gedeo agroforestry system is resilient, resource conserving and productive (Tadesse, 2002). However, in recent time it seems that the agroforestry system of Gedeo is gradually losing its ecological sustainability as perceived by the local people. This can be manifested in different ways such as decline in quality of the soil, decline in biodiversity and climate variability. Loss of biodiversity through destruction for timber, fuel wood, house construction, and preparation of farm tools is becoming common phenomena in most parts of the zone. The indigenous trees are now endangered. Indigenous trees such as Acacaia abyssinica Hochst.ex.Benth, Acacia albida Del, Ekebrgia capnesis (Sparrm) Euphorbia abyssinica Gmel, Juniperus procera Hotchst ex.Engl, Olea europaea subsp.cuspidata (Wall.ex G.Don) Cif, Ploysica fulva (Hiern) Harms, Termminalia brownie, Aningeria adolfifriederecii Rob and Gilb, and Shefflera abysisinca(Hochst.ex A.Rich)Harms are among the rare indigenous tree species (Bogale, 2007). In some areas, indigenous tree species are replaced by exotic trees. For instance, driven by its income generating capacity, farmers in the highland region have been replacing the indigenous tree species with exotic one, mainly eucalyptus tree. The increasing demand of household utensils and fuel wood by the urban dwellers is increasing the rate of deforestation in recent time. The study conducted by SLUF (2006) indicates that the rate at which indigenous trees are cleared is becoming higher than its replacement rate. The survey conducted revealed that old indigenous trees are disappearing rapidly. According to the survey result, the age of indigenous trees identified in farmer’s farmland ranges from 1 year to more than 250 years, with majority of them indicating that most of the indigenous trees grown on their farmland are 15 to 20 years old on average.
The problem of biodiversity loss is more significant in the cold highland region. Unlike the midland region where there are varied species of indigenous trees, the cold highland region is covered with few indigenous tree species. The only dominant indigenous tree species found in the cold highland of Gedeo are Hagenia abyssinica (Bruce) J.F.Gmel, Erythrina brucei S chweinf.(weleena) and Arundiaria alpina K.Schum.
Despite the evergreen nature of the landscape, the local people claim that the soils are not as productive as it used to be. There is an increasing perception among the local people that the fertility
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of their soil is declining from time to time. One of the informants residing in the cold highland region said the following regarding the nature of the land:
Our land is getting older and older. It is demanding much from us. In order to get production from the land, we have to invest much. We have to use fertilizer to get better production. This was not the case in the past. I do not know what has happened to the land (Shunde Udo, 82, Sika).
Soil acidity is one of the big problem challenging farmers in the cold highland region. Despite the recent efforts made by the government to reduce the problem of acidity, the problem still persist in most of the highland region, particularly in the cereal crop producing cold highland region. The local people revealed that because of acidity, the productivity of the land is declining.
Asked to give their view about the changes observed in biophysical aspects in the last three successive regimes (Haile Silase I, Derge and EPRDF), the respondents indicated that it is easy for them to remember what has happened in their locality in the last half century. Accordingly, more than 90% of the respondents perceived that the biophysical aspects have shown significant changes in the last five decades. Most of them perceived that above all climatic condition is becoming variable and unpredictable. They claim that they are not able to predict rainfall pattern due to the fact that sometimes rain comes late while in other times early. There has been an increasing variability of rainfall pattern, sometimes deviating from its normal period, even resulting in prolonged dry season. Farmers residing in the lowland region reported that rain is accompanied by hailstorm and strong wind. Mr. Bekele is an inhabitant of Amba kebele. He explained the situation of rain as follows:
We expect the rain to come in the mid of March as April and May are the time of seedling plantation. Often times the rain delay up to late April. If we do not get the rain in the right time, then we may not be able to plant the seedlings of enset and coffee (Bekele Gadicho,47, Amba kebele ).
It is obvious that climate variability is expected to have impacts on the production of both annual and perennial crops. Any change in the amount of rain or deviation from its actual raining time is likely to have an impact on growth of plants and their productivity. Indeed the variability of climatic elements (rainfall and temperature) is being prevalent as depicted in fig 6.1-6.5(see also annex 3, table 4 to 5). As depicted in fig.6.1, there is an increasing trend in rainfall, and the computed coefficient of variation is calculated to be 33.3% implying that annual rainfall distribution in the area
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is relatively variable. This is also clearly indicated in fig. 6.2. As it can be noted from fig. 6.2 there were rainfall deficit for about 16 years while the surplus rainfall occurred only for about 9 years (fig. 6.2). .
Fig.6.1: Annual rainfall trend (1988-2012)
Fig.6.2: Annual rainfall anomaly (1988-2012)
Regarding temperature variability, it is indicated that the average monthly maximum, minimum and mean annual temperate increase by 0.43, 0.25 and 0.35 degree Celsius per decade respectively. The variation is found to be statistically significant at 0.1 significant level. This may imply that temperature is relatively variable and would have its own impacts on growth of plants and hence on the livelihood of the local people.
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Fig. 6.3 Annual maximum temperature trend (1988-2012)
Fig.6.4 Annual minimum temperature trend (1988-2012)
Fig.6. 5. Annual mean temperature trend (1988-2012)
Apart from the empirical data presented in fig 6.1-6.5, farmers’ perception conducted with regard to climate variability reveals that rainfall variability (its deviation from its actual time, variation in amount and duration) is one amongst the factors affecting productivity in the area. The local people
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also perceived that temperate is showing some increment from year to year. In the survey made, about 96.7% of the respondents reported that the production obtained from both annual and perennial crops is declining from time to time because of climate variability.
Enset is one among the perennial crops being affected by a combined effect of climate change and decline in soil fertility as perceived by the local people. The following quote taken from the explanation of Mr. Kassu Fondqa, is a good testimony for the claim that production of enset is declining. He begins his assertion stating his fear that the successive generations are endanger:
We are not in good condition. I do not know where we are heading. Every day you see changes. In the past, it was very difficult for a woman to finish harvesting of a single enset tree within one day. It may take more than one day if done alone. However, nowadays, one can finish it within few hours. In the past, women use to ask help from their husband or son to chop down the enset trees because of its size. However, nowadays she can do it by herself. In the past, one cannot embrace the enset plant in full arms because of its thickness. However, these days one can hold it even with a single arm.
The assertion of Mr. Kassu indicates that the productivity of enset is declining from time to time mainly because of biophysical changes. As enset is the only staple food available all the time for majority of the people, a decline in its production presumably have an immediate impact on the livelihood of the people. More than 80% of the household respondents reported that because of decline in the production of enset, they are not able to feed their family, particularly during summer season. Robbery cases are becoming common since recent time. Some reported that processed enset is being stolen from where it is stored (Hasewwa). As a result, there is a tendency to conduct part of the harvesting processes away from its natural setting (Hasewwa) in fear of being stolen.
As indicated above, changes have been noticed with regard to biodiversity, soil fertility and climate. The changes were found to have both direct and indirect impacts on IK changes and continuities. Changes in biophysical conditions have threatening the livelihood of the local people by affecting the productivity of the land. On the other hand, the change occurring have been limiting the participation of young people in some agroforestry practices abandoned as a result of decline in soil quality and climate variability (eg. enset suckering in the lowland region).
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6.3. Demographic and Socio-Economic Changes and their Impacts on IK Changes and