Module 2
Unit 1: Intelligence and Early Warning Systems
At the end of this unit you should be able to:
• Distinguish early warning from intelligence 3.0 Main Contents
It is a fact that no two conflicts can completely be the same and this is why early warning systems of conflicts would clearly be based on the emergent goals and actors involved. It posited that early warning should be a function of the emergent signs and available information on the parties in conflict.
According to Keyserlingk and Kopfmuller, (2006), while intelligence is characterized by secrecy, early warning systems are expected to be an open information system.
Intelligence report procedure
Intelligence Services Early Warning Systems Approach Interventionist Facilitative
Method Quantitative Qualitative
Goal Prediction Anticipation
Formulation Universal Laws Context Results Universal Patterns Dynamic
Concerns Strategic Security Human Security Information Base Secret Transparent Institutional Base Centralized Decentralized
Source: H. Adelman, CEWARN Workshop, Nairobi 6th May 2001
From the table above, the clear cut differences between intelligence and early warning have been presented in general terms. Much as the focus of both intelligence and early warning are similar, the operational focus of the two differs. In the next section of this unit, the types of early warning systems will be presented based on what the state and
non-state actors do in response to different types of conflicts. Two types of conflicts and their attendant early warning signs will be analysed. These are genocide (ethno-cide) and political violence or electoral violence. This is because they can be regarded as reflective of the common types of conflicts in Nigeria and many African countries.
In order to deepen our understanding and clarity of early warning signs of violent conflicts some types of early warning systems are presented below.
3.3 Signs and Indicators
According to Fusato (2003), one of the frameworks of early-warning puts the markers of early warning into two categories; signs and indicators. The indicators include data which when studied over time give insight into economic and political conditions.
They are long-term in perspective and include quantitative and qualitative information such as crime rates among certain groups, trends in unemployment, negative attitudes, forms of expression and political association.
Signs are more sudden and irregular but point to fundamental changes in the situation of a country or the worsening of inter-group relations. They include sharp increases in violent crime, vandalism, protests, threats or rhetoric as well as upsurge in ethnically and religiously motivated attacks. Fusato, (2003) presents types or variables that can indicate early warning signs of conflict in the classification below:
Demographic:
• Sudden demographic changes and displacement of people
• Increasing territoriality of groups/peoples Economic:
• Short-term and long-term changes in economic performance of a country or region
• Increase in poverty or inequality
• Rise in unemployment rate
• Economic shocks or financial crises
Policy Related
• Deliberate acts of government against a specific group or region
• Destruction or desecration of religious sites
• Active discrimination or legislation favoring one group over another
• Potentially destabilizing referendums or elections
• Government clampdown Public Opinion or Social Factors:
• A rise in “societal” intolerance or prejudice
• An increase in numbers or demonstrations and rallies External:
• Intervention or support on behalf of one of the parties/groups by an external actor
• “Diffusion” or “contagion” of ideologies or conflicts in neighbouring regions
• An influx of refugees from a conflict in a neighboring country.
Presented below is a table containing various early warning signs of domestic violence that are observable and appropriate steps to be taken in response.
Self Assessment Exercise What is intelligence?
What is early warning?
4.0 Conclusion
Considering the different types of conflicts treated in this study to expose early-warning signs. For more understanding, we need to take a cursory look at the application of such concepts like security, human security and intelligence as core to this discussion in order to avoid conceptual confusion. A look at the different types of early warning signs of violent conflicts also underscores the reality of the concept while emphasizing the need to put in place effective systems of monitoring and prompt response. There are also early warning signs of domestic violence which are observable and assessable.
5.0 Summary
The unit showed the relatedness of the concepts; security, human security and intelligence with the concept of early warning. The range of difference between the concept of intelligence and early warning was also presented. The types of early warning signs were also presented in detail both in domestic and social contexts.
6.0 Tutor Marked Assignments
• Discuss with tabular illustrations the difference between intelligence and early warning systems.
Define the following terms;
• Security
• Human security
• Intelligence
• Discuss the types of abusive relationships and the signs of domestic violence 7.0 References and Further Reading
Alkire, S. 2003. A Conceptual Framework for Human Security. Oxford. Center for
Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity, CRISE. Working Paper N0 : 2.
Fusato, M. (2003). Preventive Diplomacy and International Violence Prevention.
www.beyondintractability.org . accessed on 16-8-09
Unit 2: Instruments of Early Warning