CHAPTER 4: USING ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TO PREDICT THE
4.5.4 Conservation Implications
Hyperolius pickersgilli occurs within an area that is being heavily impacted by human activity (Johnson & Raw 1987; Armstrong et al. 1998; Goodman 2000). Based on the results generated from the surveying efforts of this study EOO was recalculated for H. pickersgilli as 2081.5 km² and the AOO as 14.17 km² (or 120 km² when non-breeding habitat is taken into account). As could be expected from the range expansion to the south and an overall increase from 12 to 17 localities, the AOO has increased somewhat. The recalculated EOO is approximately 220 km² less than the figure given in the 2011 assessment, possibly as a result of the large amount of ocean area that was clipped from the total polygon. The discrepancy in results indicates that more refined methods are probably necessary before making any decisions regarding a status update for H. pickersgilli. Increases in range size are expected with increased survey intensity and, if relevant, updates to species status (Botts et al. 2012).
Although the AOO now exceeds 10 km2, there is still severe fragmentation between localities, and a continuing decline in habitat quality (IUCN Red List Guidelines Committee 2011). Based on the results of surveying, and on assessment of the level of threat at each locality for the species, it is recommended that the Red List status of H. pickersgilli be reassessed as Endangered (EN B1ab(iii)+2ab(iii)). The AOO now exceeds 10 km2, but the population remains severely fragmented, and habitat area, extent and quality are continuing to decline (cf. IUCN Red List Guidelines Committee 2011).
In addition to producing positive results in terms of finding new populations, species distribution models are useful for examining potential dispersal routes between sites within meta-populations. Ideally, such corridors can be translated into long-term conservation plans for H. pickersgilli. Meta-population dynamics, especially of low-vagility organisms such as frogs is adversely affected by fragmentation (Carr & Fahrig 2001; Cushman 2006), and should be taken into account when designing conservation plans. The meta-population maps produced here can be used to support conservation plans.
Overall, the species is currently present at seventeen localities. Only two populations, those at Umlalazi Nature Reserve and iSimangaliso World Heritage Site, are offered formal provincial protection. The Mtunzini populations at Forest Lodge and the Raphia Palms monument are afforded some protection under the Twinstreams-Mtunzini Natural Heritage
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Site and conservancy area. All remaining populations, namely Isipingo, Mt Moreland, Zimbithi, and Port Durnford, Adam‟s Mission, Stanger and Charlottedale face varying levels of threat. It is important to recognise that each of these sites has conservation value and to work with relevant authorities, stakeholders and land-owners to secure long-term protection of these populations. Table 4.3 provides suggestions for land protection methods for each site.
The Prospecton site occurs within the proposed area that is to be developed for the Durban South Port Development, which will essentially result in complete habitat removal and extirpation of this subpopulation of H. pickersgilli. Taking into account that each locality comprises approximately five percent of the total range of H. pickersgilli, loss of any site has serious implications for the overall population. The recommendation for Critically Endangered species is no further loss of habitat (Driver et al. 2009; Pfab et al. 2011), however, in this case preservation of the site seems untenable. The only solution will be a rescue and translocation programme funded by offsets by the developer. This will be a major undertaking requiring careful planning throughout, including identification of a number of possible re-introduction sites in the vicinity; rehabilitation thereof if necessary; and long-term management and monitoring (Soorae 2011).
An ex-situ programme, which commenced in January 2012, is being implemented and headed by Johannesburg Zoo for H. pickersgilli. This is the first such programme for a threatened amphibian in southern Africa with the long-term goal of creating an assurance population of this species for eventual re-introduction into the wild (Visser 2011). Additional conservation actions are discussed in Chapter 3.
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Table 4.3: Recommendations for land protection of the currently known Hyperolius pickersgilli populations (North to South).
Locality Name Approximate Size Status and Ownership Management Recommendation St Lucia Large (~ 20 ha) Protected (iSimangaliso
Wetland Heritage Site) Long-term monitoring (KZN Wildlife)
Richard‟s Bay Medium (~ 10 ha) Not protected Stewardship Port Durnford (2
sites) Medium (~5 ha) Not protected (Mondi) Rehabilitation and Stewardship Umlalazi Nature
Reserve Medium (~ 5 ha) Protected (KZN
Wildlife) Long-term monitoring (KZN Wildlife) Mtunzini (2 sites) Small (~ 2 ha) Not officially protected
(Forest Lodge and Mtunzini conservancy)
Stewardship
Zinkwazi Beach Medium (~ 5 ha) Not protected (Private) Stewardship Stanger and Ethafeni Small (~ 2 ha) Not protected (Private) Land acquisition Simbithi Eco Estate Small (~ 2 ha) Not protected (Private) Stewardship Mt Moreland Large (17 ha) Not protected (ACSA) Stewardship
Prospecton Medium (~5 ha) Not protected (ACSA) Translocation (new site necessary)
Isipingo Small (2 ha) Not protected (Private) Land acquisition Adam‟s Mission Small (2 ha) Not protected (Private) Land acquisition Umkomaas Small (2 ha) Not protected (Private) Land acquisition Sezela Small (1 ha) Not protected (Private) Land acquisition
Total 80 ha
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Currently approximately 31% of H. pickersgilli‟s range is officially protected. Successful stewardship programs for Mt. Moreland, Port Durnford and the Mtunzini sites would secure a further 30% for long-term survival. Stewardship agreements require long-term commitment from land-owners and are an onerous process to implement, but are becoming increasingly popular for protection of habitat with high biodiversity value on privately owned land. This method of securing habitat will be well suited to Mt. Moreland, which in addition to hosting H. pickersgilli is also an important bird area, and its protection will involve multiple stakeholders. Smaller, privately owned sites would be better suited to land acquisition options, whereby the land is purchased and managed by a local conservation authority or non-government organisation. The Isipingo and Umkomaas sites are most suitable for this option currently. Development plans for housing units, including a sewage processing plant and parking areas are currently being considered for the land at Umkomaas. Presence of H.
pickersgilli here will ideally prevent this from going ahead. Land acquisition similarly is only viable if long-term management procedures are put in place, including monitoring (Field et al. 2005).