Hereby a description of the main significant inputs used to measure the fair value of items categorized in Level 2 and 3 of the fair value hierarchy.
Volatility
Volatility is a measure for variation of price of a financial instrument over time. In particular, volatility measures the speed and severity of market price changes for an instrument, parameter or market index given how much the particular instrument, parameter or index changes in value over time, expressed as a percentage of relative change in price. The higher the volatility of the underlying, the riskier the instrument. In general, long option positions benefit from increases in volatility, whereas short option positions will suffer losses. There are different types of volatility: volatility of interest rate, inflation volatility, volatility of foreign exchange and volatility of equity stocks, equity or other indices.
Correlation
Correlation is a measure of the relationship between the movements of two variables. When parameters are positively correlated, an increase in correlation results in a higher fair value measure. On the contrary, given a short correlation position, an increase in correlation, in isolation, would generally result in a decrease in a fair value measure. Therefore changes in correlation levels can have a major impact, favorable or unfavorable, on the fair value of an instrument, depending on the type of correlation.
Correlation is a pricing input for a derivative product where the payoff is driven by multiple underlying risks. The level of correlation used in the valuation of derivatives with multiple underlying risks depends on a number of factors including the nature of those risks.
Dividends
The derivation of a forward price for an individual stock or index is important both for measuring fair value for forward or swap contracts and for measuring fair value using option pricing models. The relationship between the current stock price and the forward price is based on a combination of expected future dividend levels and payment timings and, to a lesser extent, the relevant funding rates applicable to the stock in question. The dividend yield and timing represents the most significant parameter in determining fair value for instruments that are sensitive to an equity forward price.
Interest rate curve
The calculation of the interest rate curve is based on standard bootstrapping techniques relying on the set of quotes of appropriate financial instruments, for each currency.
Less liquid currencies interest curve refer to the rates in currencies for which doesn’t exist a market liquidity in terms of tightness, depth and resiliency. The illiquidity of these input data impacts directly the valuation of securities or derivatives expressed in illiquid currencies.
Inflation Swap rate
The determination of forward levels for inflation indexes is based on swap quote over inflation indexes. Swap over inflation may present a low liquidity level whether there is no liquid market in terms of rigidity, deepness and resistance. The illiquidity of those inputs has an indirect impact on the valuation of a debt instrument linked to inflation (inflation-linked note) or in case of a derivative over inflation.
Credit spreads
Different valuation models, especially for credit derivatives require an input for the credit spread which reflects the credit quality of the associated credit name. The credit spread of a particular security is quoted in relation to the yield on a benchmark security or reference rate, typically either U.S. Treasury or LIBOR/EURIBOR and is generally expressed in terms of basis points. The ranges for credit spreads cover a variety of underlings (index and single names), regions, sectors, maturities and credit qualities (high-yield and investment-grade). The broad range of this population gives rise to the width of the ranges of unobservable inputs.
Loss Given Default (LGD)/Recovery Rate
LGD also known as loss severity (the inverse concept is the recovery rate) represents the percentage of contractual cash flows lost in the event of a default, expressed as the net amount of loss relative to the outstanding balance. An increase in the loss severity, in isolation, would result in a decrease in a fair value measure. Loss given default is facility-specific because such losses are generally understood to be influenced by key transaction characteristics such as the presence of collateral and the degree of subordination.
Price
Where market prices are not observable, comparison via proxy is used to measure a fair value.
Prepayment Rate (PR)
The PR is the estimated rate at which forecasted prepayments of principal of the related debt instrument are expected to occur. Voluntary unscheduled payments (prepayments) change the future cash flows for the investor and thereby change the fair value of the security.
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In general as prepayment speeds change, the weighted average life of the security changes, which impacts the valuation either positively or negatively, depending upon the nature of the security and the direction of the change in the weighted average life.
Probability of Default (PD)
The probability of default is an estimate of the likelihood of not collecting contractual amounts. It provides an estimate of the likelihood that a client of a financial institution will be unable to meet its debt obligations over a particular time horizon. The PD of an obligor not only depends on the risk characteristics of that particular obligor but also the economic environment and the degree to which it affects the obligor.
Early conversion
The early conversion is the estimate of the probability that the liability would be converted into equity earlier than the terms stated.
EBITDA
EBITDA is an indicator of the current operating profitability of the business, that is the income generated by the use of the company’s assets and the commercialization of the products manufactured.
Ke
The Ke (cost of capital) represents the minimum rate that the company has to offer to its shareholders as remuneration for the capital received.
Growth rate