Description of the intelligence process

The intelligence process consists of five steps; data gathering, evaluation, preparation, analysis, and distribution.

Data gathering

Data gathering is a controlled and focused gathering of information from all sources, e.g. individuals, police, judicial system, and open sources.

Examples: - Police databases - Informants - Surveillance - Interviews/Interrogations - Official statistics - Literature studies

- External databases (open sources)

In tactical analysis the goal of the team of investigators is to explore the most useful sources, and to gather the information that most likely will give positive results. The head of the team must make sure that all possibilities are explored and that possible clues are prioritised. Data gathering methods shall be evaluated during the investigation to determine if they are efficient or not. Planning secures that all members in the team (management, investigators, and analysts) are moving in the same direction and understands what they are searching for.

In strategic analysis the task is to view the present situation in relation to one specific type of crime or try to locate future trends and what this mean for the tasks of the police. Typical aspects are social, political, and economic factors, geography, technology, laws and police methods, and relevant indicators.

The analyst is a vital part of the data gathering phase. Main work tasks are co-operation with the management in planning, organising and examination of the information, and propose hypotheses that need testing through further data gathering.

Evaluation

This step includes determination of the information’s usefulness (anvendbarhet) and evaluation of the information.

The information’s usefulness (anvendbarhet) is determined by the properties described in table 6.4.

Property Description Relevance

(relevans)

Does the information concern the crime?

If yes, is the information connected to the current violation of the law? Comprehension

(forståelse)

Is there room for misinterpretation in the further examination of the information?

The information ought to be presented and documented in a clear and concise way.

Sufficiency (tilstrekkelighet)

Does the information include details about space, time, person, etc? Without such information it is not possible to draw a conclusion. Essentialness

(vesentlighet)

To which degree is the information relevant for the case? Some of the information is more relevant.

Timeliness (aktualitet)

The police often receive information after a crime is committed. Information about future events are often very useful and often the best information.

Reliability (troverdighet)

There exist several different systems for evaluating reliability. In the system used by Kripos the following is considered:

- what are the facts?

- reliability evaluation of the source for the information - the information’s validity (holdbarhet)

- source evaluation and information evaluation are done separately

Table 6.4 Overview of properties determining the information’s usefulness. Adapted from: Nordisk kurs i kriminalanalyse (Kripos, 2000).

Preparation

Preparation is completed when information are stored and cross-referenced in ways that provide easy access to the data. In order to avoid waste of time and effort the plan for how the information should be compared should be decided in the planning process.

Analysis

The analysis phase consists of 4 steps/processes 1. Integration

2. Interpretation

3. Develop and test hypotheses

4. Develop conclusions and recommendations

1. Integration

The goal for the analyst is to integrate the information in such a way that the meaning becomes clearer, and it becomes easier to point out the need for additional information. The analyst often gives the information a visual form (diagrams). Different techniques are used for different types of information. The nature of information and the goal of the analysis determine which techniques that is suited in each case. The different techniques/diagrams are described in table 6.5.

Technique/diagram Description

Relationship diagram Shows relationship(s) between entities (e.g. persons and organisations).

Examples: A person’s participation in an organisation (e.g. owner, employee, membership). One person’s relationship with another (e.g. family member, friend, been in contact).

Relationships can be of two types; verified or unverified.

Commodity flow diagram Defines and illustrates the flow of money or

commodities (e.g. drugs or stolen goods) through the entities in a criminal network.

Flows can be of two types; verified and unverified. Event diagram Shows relationships of time between criminal events. Activity diagram Defines patterns or sequences of criminal acts, including

modus operandi.

Table 6.5 Overview of techniques/diagrams used in case analysis. Adapted from: Nordisk kurs i kriminalanalyse (Kripos, 2000).

2. Interpretation

The most important part of the intelligence process. The analyst ought to use inductive logic and be as objective as possible towards the information. The analyst also has to go beyond facts to generate hypotheses, predictions and evaluations. If the analyst does not take any

risks and goes beyond the facts, the analyst is not able to provide the team with a worthwhile goal.

Interesting aspects of the information is: Who is involved?

What are they doing? How are they doing it? Where does it happen? When did or will it happen? Why are they doing it?

3. Develop and test hypotheses

The hypothesis presents a theory that focuses on further information gathering. Every hypothesis must be tested, and exists only for this purpose. The testing is carried out by gathering new information, and by evaluating, preparing and integrating the new information. These activities lead either to rejection of the hypothesis or changing it to a conclusion.

The interesting aspects of the information relate to the parts of the hypothesis as table 6.6 shows.

Aspect of information Part of hypothesis Who is involved? Key person(s) What are they doing? Criminal activities How are they doing it? Modus operandi

Where does it happen? Geographical perspective Why are they doing it? Motive

When did or will it happen? Time frame

Table 6.6 Parts of a hypothesis related to interesting aspects of information. Adapted from: Nordisk kurs i kriminalanalyse (Kripos, 2000).

A plan for the information gathering should be made to:

- Secure that necessary information is gathered and that irrelevant information is not. - Improve efficiency.

- Strengthen co-ordination and understanding.

4. Develop conclusions and recommendations.

The end products of the analytic process are conclusions and recommendations that should be reported, verbally or written, as soon as possible. Conclusions and recommendations should be useful, i.e. they ought to have logical support and be tailor made for one particular area of use, e.g. prosecution, strategy, further investigation, or developing guidelines.

Distribution

The end product of the intelligence must be delivered to the decision-makers, the head of the investigators or the civil servants working with the case. Diagrams must not be used in isolation, but with an explanation of the meaning. Presentation can be delivered verbally or in writing, but a written report should always be available as support for the oral presentation.