Ukraine has a relatively well-developed statistical agency, Ukrstat. During the 2000s, Ukrstat received a lot of help from international donors to upgrade data collection processes, data quality and methodology, including a major $45 million loan from the World Bank.186 An ongoing twinning project with the Danish statistical agency also seems to be moving at a good pace.187
In part thanks to international funding, Ukrstat introduced a number of new statistical products and revamped existing ones. For example, the consumer prices index was reformed in 2007-08. National accounts are now produced based on standardised models (SNA-2008 and NACE 2.0). The methodology for the industrial output index was revised several times in recent years. Most publications by Ukrstat are now published online and generally on time. The output compares
186 See www.worldbank.org/projects/P076338/development-state-statistics-
system-monitoring-social-economic-transformation-project?lang=en.
favourably with most post-Soviet states, and with Eurostat on some points.188
However, the many revisions in methodology have caused breaks in data series, including four such breaks for the industrial output index. Back-cast data were provided with a significant delay. Ukrstat is currently adjusting for important discontinuities resulting from the loss of Crimea and the conflict over the eastern Donbas (see Box 13.1).
Box 13.1 Impact of Crimea and eastern Donbas on Ukrainian statistics
The loss of control over Crimea in March 2014, led to relatively straightforward consequences for Ukrainian statistics. Most statistics are aggregated from data gathered by regional/oblast statistical offices. After reports from Crimea and Sevastopol stopped, Ukrstat started to provide data aggregated from reports by the 25 remaining regional offices, and Ukrstat is now providing adjusted retrospective data in most cases from 2010. The loss of Crimea causes a break in most data series, but adjustments are relatively small as Crimea and Sevastopol accounted for less than 4% of GDP in Ukraine.
In the case of eastern Donbas, the situation is more complex. Some economic establishments were destroyed and others continued to operate but ceased reporting. Others nevertheless continued to report to Ukrstat, despite operating on uncontrolled territory. Ukrstat stated that 2015 statistics and some of 2014 statistics excludes “part of the zone of the antiterrorist operation” but did not provide guidance on what this means. In practice part of oblast-level statistics and thus national aggregates clearly include reported economic activity in the eastern Donbas.189 This may result in an overstating of the reported reduction in economic activity in 2014 and 2015. The IER has estimated that GDP in Ukraine, excluding eastern Donbas (and Crimea), fell by less than 10% in the first half of 2015, compared to the 16% drop reported by Ukrstat. In 2016, reports from companies in eastern Donbas continued to be included at minimum levels of industrial output, and construction and services activity. Survey-based statistics have by necessity been calculated without the eastern Donbas.
188 According to personal experience with cross-country data.
189 For example in first quarter of 2016, Donetsk city accounted for 25% of
reported construction work in the Donetsk oblast and steel production in the Lugansk oblast (with no large mills in controlled part of oblast) contributed 29% of sales by industrial companies in the oblast.
However, it is not completely clear how the displaced population, estimated at over 1 million,190 was accounted for in recent household surveys.191
The main challenges on data gathering are the coverage of individual entrepreneurs and households, and delays in censuses of households and agricultural undertakings. Individual entrepreneurs are not subject to mandatory statistical reporting, although they account for large market shares in a number of service sectors, including hotels and restaurants, IT services, real estate services, professional and business services, etc. So far Ukrstat has resorted to extrapolation, based on data reported to tax authorities, but did not make much progress in voluntary surveys.
The household survey has a relatively high response rate (77%) but the response rate for urban households was lower, at 70% for large cities and only 49% for Kyiv. This probably means that a large share of middle-income households and most high-income households are excluded from the sample. This is reflected in an improbably low Gini index of 0.246192 for distribution of income by Ukrainian households, which is the lowest recorded by the World Bank.193
A census of households was initially planned for 2011, i.e. ten years after the previous census in 2001. But this has been pushed back repeatedly, most recently to 2016, because of the budget crisis. This means that the Ukrstat’s population estimates are based on 2001 data, adjusted for administratively registered births, deaths and migration. For example, Ukrstat’s 2016 population estimate for Kyiv city is 2.9 million, while the unregistered population is estimated at 0.4 million.194 A delayed agricultural census is also critical for accurate agricultural
190 About 1.6 million were registered as displaced by social services (required
for regular welfare payments), and 1 million received assistance from the emergency services.
191 In 2015, the reported number of households in 23 regions not affected by
conflict increased by 0.3 million from the 2013 level, despite mortality exceeding the birthrate. It is difficult to judge whether this reflects displaced persons and whether they were represented in the survey sample.
192 See www.ukrstat.gov.ua/druk/publicat/kat_u/2016/bl/05/ bl_vrdu15_pdf.zip, p. 144. 193 See http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?order=wbapi_ data_value_2011+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-first&sort=asc. 194 See www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2016/ds/kn/kn_u/kn0316_u.html.
statistics, since 45% of agricultural production is estimated to be produced by households.
Current progress and plans for the implementation of EU standards cover an extensive range of statistical series, including business sentiment, structural statistics, a labour force survey, household survey, education statistics, gas and electricity prices, agricultural holdings, fisheries, livestock and meat statistics, and pesticide statistics. For these series implementation is at various stages of completion. Overall Ukrstat is likely to be able to implement EU rules on statistics as scheduled, as no major increase in scale or complexity of data gathering is required.
There remain several serious technical challenges:
- The website of Ukrstat is antiquated and navigation can be difficult for new users.
- Ukrstat.gov.ua is not searchable, either internally or through search engines (except through unofficial sources).
- There is no interface to download data series.
Ukrainian statistics at a glance
Ukraine has a relatively well-developed statistical agency, although its website is still rather antiquated.
Programmes for harmonisation with European methodologies are extensive and broadly proceed as planned.
However, shortage of resources hold back some important census and survey operations.