End Point

This thesis has made a contribution to the understanding of risk assessment for water supply system and new ideas of organising complex risk information based on concepts of object- oriented approach. It is hoped that this work will increase the efficiency of water utilities to manage risks in a complex water system that is affected by multiple hazards.

It is emphasised that this work is the first step in the formulation of object-oriented frameworks for risk assessment of water supply systems. It is anticipated that future research will result in a better understanding of this method, and overall improved risk assessment.

References

References

Ahammed, M. and R.E. Melchers (1994). Reliability of Underground Pipelines Subjected to Corrosion, Journal of Transportation Engineering, © ASCE, Vol.120, No.6, pp.989-1003.

Akter, T. and S. P. Simonovic (2005) Aggregation of Fuzzy Views of a Large Number of Stakeholders for Multi-Objectives Flood Management Decision-Making, Journal of Environmental Management, Vol.77, No.2, pp.133-143.

Andrews, J. D., T. R. Moss (2002) Reliability and Risk Assessment, Professional Engineering Publishing, London and Bury St Edmunds, UK

Ang, H.S. and H. Tang (1984). Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, John Wiley, Hoboken, N.J.

AWWA Research Foundation and Sandia National Laboratories (2002). Risk Assessment

Methodology for Water Utilities (QAM-WTM), AWWA Research Foundation, Denver, Colorado.

AWWSC (2002). Deteriorating Buried Infrastructure Management Challenges and Strategies, White Paper Prepared for US Environmental Protection Agency Workshop on Distribution System Issues, March 7-8, Voorhees, NJ.

Ayuub, B.M. (2001). Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks, CRC Press. Bailey, K.C. (2001) The Biological and Toxin Weapons Threat to the United States, National Institute for Public Policy, Farifax, VA.

Bao, Y. and L.W. Mays (1990). Model for Water Distribution System Reliability. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering. ASCE, Vol.116, No.9, pp.1119-1137.

Bardossy, A. and L. Duckstein (1992) Analysis of a Karstic Aquifer Management Problem by Fuzzy Composite Programming, Water Resources Bulletin, Vol.28, No.1, pp.63-73.

Beard, L.R. (1997). Estimating Flood Frequency and Average Annual Damage, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol.123, No.2, pp.84-88.

Bender, M.J. and S.P. Simonovic (2000) A Fuzzy Compromise Approach to Water Resource Systems Planning under Uncertainty, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol.115, No.1, pp.35-44.

von Bertalanffy, L. (1969). General System Theory, Revised Edition, George Braziller, Inc. New York, NY.

Bilgiç, T., and I.B. Turksen (1999). Measurement of Membership Functions: Theoretical and Empirical Work, Chapter 3 in D. Dubois and H. Prade (eds) Handbook of Fuzzy Sets and Systems Vol.1, Fundamentals of Fuzzy sets, Kluwer, pp.195-232.

Black, J.J., and O.O. Megabit (1995). Simulation of Complex Manufacturing Equipment Reliability Using Object-Oriented Methods, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol.48, No.1, pp.11-18.

Blomgren, P. (2002). Utility Managers Need to Protect Water Systems from Cyber terrorism, U.S. News, 19: 10.

Booch, G. (1994). Object-Oriented Analysis and Design with Applications. Second Edition, The Benjamin/Cummings Publishing Company, Inc.

Cai, K.Y. (1996). Introduction to Fuzzy Reliability, Kluwer Academic Publisher, Boston, London. Cai, K.Y., C.Y. Wen, and M.L. Zhang (1991). Fuzzy States as a Basis for a Theory of Fuzzy Reliability in the Possibility Context, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol.42, No.1, pp.17-32.

Chen, S. J. and S. M. Chen (2003). Fuzzy Risk Analysis Based on Similarity Measures of Generalized Fuzzy Numbers, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, Vol.11, No.1, pp.45-56. Chen, S.M. (2001). Fuzzy Group Decision Making for Evaluating the Rate of Aggregative Risk in Software Development, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol.118, No.1, pp.75-88.

Chen, S.M. (1998). Aggregating Fuzzy Operations in the Group Decision-Making Environment, Cybernetic Systems: International Journal, Vol.29, No.4, pp.363-376.

Chen, S.M. (1996). New Methods for Subjective Mental Workload Assessment and Fuzzy Risk Analysis, Cybernetic Systems: International Journal, Vol.27, No.5, pp.449-472.

Chen, S.M. (1994). Fuzzy System Reliability Analysis Using Fuzzy Number Arithmetic Operation, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol.64, No.1, pp.31-38.

Cheng, C.H., and D.L. Mon (1993). Fuzzy System Reliability Analysis by Interval of Confidence, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol.56, No.1, pp.29-35.

Chung, C.H. and J.D. Salas (2000). Drought Occurrence Probabilities and Risks of Dependent Hydrologic Processes, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, © ASCE, Vol.5, No.3, pp.259-268. Chung, R. (1996) The January 17, 1995 Hydrogoken-Nanbu (Kobe) Earthquake: Performance of Structures, Lifelines, and Fire Protection Systems, National Institute of Standards and Technology.

References

Clark, R.M., and R.A. Deininger (2000). Protecting the Nation’s Critical Infrastructure: The Vulnerability of U.S. Water Supply Systems, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Vol.8, No.2, pp.73.

Clark, R.M., E.E. Geldreich, K.R. Fox, E.W. Rice, C.W. Johnson, J.A. Goodrick, J.A. Barnick, and F. Abdesaken (1996). Tracking a Salmonella Serovar Typhimurium Outbreak in Gideon, Missouri: Role of Contaminant Propagation Modeling, Journal of Water Supply and Technology, Vol.45, No.4, pp.171.

Clark, R.M., C.L. Stafford, and J.A. Goodrick (1982). Water Distribution System: A Spatial and Cost Evaluation, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, © ASCE, Vol. 108, No.3, pp.243-256.

Clinton, W. J. (1996). Executive Order 13010 on critical infrastructure protection, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.

Clinton, W. J. (1998). Presidential Decision Directive 63, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C

Coburn, A.W., Spence, R.J.S., Pomois, A. (1994). Vulnerability and Risk Assessment, Second Edition, UNDP Disaster management training programme.

Cooper, N.R., G. Blakey, C. Sherwin, T. Ta, J.T. Whiter, and C.A. Woodward (2000). The Use of GIS to Develop a Probability-Based Trunk Mains Burst Risk Model, Urban Water, Vol.2, No.2, pp.97-103.

Courtois, P. (1985). On Time and Space Decomposition of Complex Structures, Communications of the ACM, Vol.28, No.6, pp.596.

Cox, D.R. (1972). Regression Models and Life Tables, Journal of Royal Statistic Society, Vol.34, No.2, pp.187-220.

Craun, G., D. Swerdlow, R. Tarxe, R. Clark, K. Fox, E. Geldreich, D. Reasoner, and E. Rice (1991). Prevention of Waterborn Cholera in the United States, Journal of the American Water Works Association, Vol. 83, No.11, pp.43.

Crossland, R., J.H. Sims Williams, and C.A. McMahon (2003). An Object-Oriented Modelling Framework for Representing Uncertainty in Early Variant Design, Research in Engineering Design, Vol.14, pp.173-183.

Cullinane, M.J., K.E. Lansey, and L.W. Mays (1992). Optimization-Availability-Based Design of Water-Distribution Networks, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, ASCE, Vol.118, No.3, pp.420- 441

Dai, A., K. Trenberth, T. Qian, (2004). A Global Data Set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming. J. Hydrometerology, Vol.5., pp.1117-1130.

Dandy, G.C., and M.O. Engelhardt (2006). Multi-Objective Trade-Offs between Cost and Reliability in the Replacement of Water Mains, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, © ASCE, Vol.132, No.2, pp.79-88.

Deininger, R.A. (2000). Constituents of Concern. The Threat of Chemical and Biological Agents to Public Water Supply Systems. Appendix F in Pipeline Net User’s Guide, SAIC, McLean, Virginia.

Deininger, R.A. and P.G. Meier (2000). Sabotage of Public Water Supply Systems, Security of Public Water Supplies, Vol.66, Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Dempster, A.P. (1967). Upper and Lower Probabilities Induced by a Multi-valued Mapping, The Annuals of Statistics, Vol.28, pp.325-339.

DETR (1995). A Guide to Risk Assessment and Risk Management for Environmental Protection, London, UK, HMSO

DETR, Environment Agency, Institute for Environment and Health (2000). Guidelines for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management.

Dhillon, B.S. and C. Singh (1981), Engineering Reliability: New Techniques and Applications, Wiley, New York.

Dong, Y., and D. Yu (2005). Estimation of Failure Probability of Oil and Gas Transmission Pipelines by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, Vol.18, No.2, pp.83-88.

Dreazen, Y. J. (2003) ‘Backflow’ Water-Line Attack Feared, Wall Street Journal, Vol., No. , pp Duan, N. and L.W. Mays (1990a). Reliability of Pumping Systems, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, ASCE, Vol.116, No.2, pp.230-248.

Duan, N., L.W. Mays, and K.E. Lansey (1990b). Optimal Reliability-Based Design of Pumping and Distribution Systems, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, ASCE, Vol.116, No.2, pp.249-268. Dubois, D. and H. Prade (1992). On the Combination of Evidence in Various Mathematical Frameworks, Reliability Data Collection and Analysis, J. Flamm and T. Luisi, Brussels, ECSC, EEC, EAFC, pp.213-241.

Dubois, D. and H. Prade (1986). A Set-Theoretic View on Belief Functions: Logical Operations and Approximations by Fuzzy Sets, International Journal of General Systems, Vol.12, pp.193- 226.