Expected deadweight tonnage of the “other cargo vessels”

a) E s t i m a t e d t o n n a g e o f t h i s s e c t i o n o f t h e w o r l d f l e e t i n 1 9 6 6

The sectorial analysis has, in general, been concerned with merchant ships in service of over 1 000 grt excluding passenger vessels and the Great Lakes fleet. The year taken as a basis for the whole study has been 1966.

Therefore the fleet of “other cargo vessels” of over 1 000 grt in 1966 must be estimated by deducting the categories previously studied from the total. This category of “other cargo vessels” is a residual category which corresponds, on the whole, to short haul traders of very different types, of small dimensions, intended for the carriage of dry cargoes which are neither bulk commodities given to large specialized ships or tramps nor “general cargoes” carried by ocean-going cargo liners.

Table XXVII shows the method of calculating the basic tonnage of the category of “other cargo vessels”.

TABLE XXVII

Classification o f the w orld merchant fleet o f ships over 1 0 0 0 grt. in m id 1 9 6 6

Million grt Million tdw

World fleet ( > 1 000 grt at 1.1.1966)

(Lloyd’s Register) 163.25

of which: US reserve fleet other laid-up ships Great Lakes fleet

8 0.85 3.36 — 12.21

Remaining operating sea-going fleet 151.04

of which: tankers

passenger vessels (estimate) 62.054.60

—66.65

Remaining dry cargo vessels 84.39 equivalent to 119.8

of which: bulk carriers tramps cargo liners 30.8 22.5 43 — 96.3

Remaining ‘‘other cargo vessels” 23.5

To calculate the deadweight tonnage of the “other cargo-vessel” fleet in 1966, it has been necessary to start from the gross tonnage of the world fleet of ships of over 1 000 grt as calculated by the statistical tables of Lloyd’s Register. Available statistics being heterogeneous, it has been necessary to begin the series in gross tonnage and end it in deadweight. The conversion has been made at the level of the dry cargo vessel fleet, by applying a coefficient of 1.42 tdw for 1 grt which is a suitable estimate for such a group of ships of relatively small dimensions. The total deadweight tonnage of “other cargo vessels” amounts thus to 23.5m. tons. This figure corresponds fairly well to the Lloyd’s Register statistics which indicated, at 1 July 1966, 16m. grt for cargo vessels of less than 4 000 grt but more than 1 000 grt. These 16m. grt are equivalent to about 22.7m. tdw, con­ sequently a figure slightly lower than the one resulting from the calculations presented in Table XXVII. This difference can be explained by the fact that the latter estimate includes all dry cargo ships not previously studied, including some specialized units of over 4 000 grt, for instance large fully-refrigerated cargo vessels. On the other hand, cargo liners of under 4 000 grt are excluded from the estimate in Table XXVII.

b) E f f i c i e n c y o f t h i s s e c t i o n o f t h e m e r c h a n t f l e e t

“Other cargo vessel” trade corresponds roughly to the carriage of “miscellaneous cargoes” studied under Chapter II (B-4c) the volume of which was estimated at between 152 and 186m. tons in 1966.

This range, of about 20% as regards the volume carried, due to the lack of precise statistics, gives rise to difficulty in calculating the efficiency of the corresponding fleet, for the basic year, 1966.

Although the actual efficiency rate is not known, it should be calculable. This is why an attempt has been made to restrict the ranges of forecasts for the future, as regards the expected efficiency in 1975 and 1980.

At all events, a strong rise in the efficiency of this section of the fleet is to be anticipated, because its units are mainly employed on short-haul trade and there will be a noticeable increase in the number of roundtrips due to a significant reduction in port time. This reduction will be consequent on the more general use of modern cargo-handling equipment in Europe and North America. Cargoes will be increasingly carried in unit loads: containers, pallets, half-trailers, often handled according to the roll-on/roll-off method.

Actually, most “miscellaneous cargoes” are similar in nature to general cargoes and many transports made by the “other cargo vessels” will be transhipments to and from large terminals for container ships and other fast long-haul cargo liners. On the whole, it has thus seemed possible to foresee, for 1975, efficiency rates of between 7.7 and 8.3% . For 1980 both estimates of efficiency are by 5% higher than those calculated for 1975.

It was assessed that, in this category of ships, the expected effects of the present revolution in port equipment and handling facilities would mainly be felt in the next few years.

c) E x p e c t e d d e a d w e i g h t o f t h e f l e e t o f “o t h e r c a r g o s h i p s ” i n 1 9 7 5 a n d 1 9 8 0

On the basis of these estimates and of the earlier forecasts as to the volume of miscellaneous cargoes shipped in 1975 and 1980 Table XXVIII shows the cor­ responding forecasts for the total deadweight of the merchant fleet of “other cargo vessels” at the end of both periods considered.

TABLE XXVIII

Forecast deadweight tonnage o f the w orld “ other cargo vessel33 fleet in 1 9 7 5 and 1 9 8 0

(million tons deadweight)

1975 1980

Estimates of growth Low High Low High

Millions tons of " other dry cargoes” 240 305 335 395

Estimated efficiency ratings 7.7 to 8.3 8.1 to 8.7

Million tons deadweight of “other cargo vessels”

1. High efficiency 28.9 36.7 38.5 45.4

2. Low efficiency 31.2 39.6 41.4 48.8

The tonnages required to carry the cargoes anticipated will thus total 29 to 40m. tons deadweight in 1975 and 38 to 49m. tons deadweight in 1980.

C. Com parison betw een the forecasts form ulated by the overall approach and the

sectorial analysis on w orld m erchant fleet tonnage in 1975 and 1980

1. Choice o f gross registered tonnage which will enable this comparison to be made