In document Environmental and territorial modelling for planning and design (Page 164-169)

In particular, the approach introduces and quantifi es indicators of different types, linked to characteristic aspects of a place and able to know the variation of the level of exposure to risk


Among the different settlement systems, as described in paragraph 1, in the paper the school system is deepened. A first application of the proposed approach is carried out in the city of Savona.

The Municipal Territory of Savona, a provincial capital city, is located in the coastal area of the western Ligurian Riviera. The territory has an extension of 65 km2; fractions develop in hilly / mountainous areas while the urban and suburban centers in the plains. Savona has a densely urbanized territorial structure, particularly in the plain area consisting of an alluvial plain of the Letimbro stream and along the sea front. In this area there is about 80% of the buildings, which is the main urban center of Savona. Over the centuries, the urban center has progressively expanded in the area of the commercial port both from the point of view of the building and from the infrastructures that serve it. Immediately near the harbour dock there is the historic center.

Fig.5 Graphical interface for the calculation of the Global Index Analysing the current Municipal Emergency Plan of Savona, it emerges that the territorial analysis was carried out to highlight areas subject to various risks such as:

hydro-morphological-geological risk;

fire risk;

seismic risk;

risk from exceptional meteorological events;

industrial and technological risk;

risk deriving from transport on aircraft, road or rail and emergency at sea.

Regarding the school system, analysed in the paper, the current Municipal Emergency Plan of Savona (section 4.4.1 "Evacuation - General Procedures") in the event of critical hydrogeological / hydraulic issues defines: in the time of non-operating school facilities, the closure of all public and private schools or educational institutions, of any order and degree; in time when the schools are operational, all those present must remain there until the communication of "endangered danger" by the Authorities. If the subjects are in a building located in a floodable area they must move to the upper floors in safe areas and follow the procedures described in detail. The individual schools should know and follow these instructions and self-protection measures set by the Department of Civil Protection. Wanting to insert the new methodological approach in the Civil Protection Plan of Savona, in a first phase, in order to compile the database 1, all the schools (of different order and degree) in the Savona territory have been identified and numbered in progressive order.

Subsequently, the presences of each single school were reported taking as reference the times of a typical week, marking the days in 30-minute intervals, so as to record with greater detail the variation of the exposed vulnerable. Through the use of an excel tool (Power Map) were made three-dimensional maps. These maps make possible to identify which school - at a time and place specific - have a greater number of exposures - in terms of number - and how they are distributed throughout the territory (Fig. 6).

Fig. 6 Examples of representation of the number of people present in the Savona area

In order to compile the database 2 for the study of school-rescue links, local rescue personnel were identified and located. For each school, the shortest path was then analysed, verifying the possibility of alternative paths, if the main one was not practicable. The municipal territory was then divided into three homogeneous zones:

center, suburb, hill to take into consideration the location with respect to the center. Once the data - in terms of attendance and localization - necessary for the compilation of the first two databases was obtained, the 5 indicators identified in the approach were calculated. According to the classifications - high, medium, low - described in the methodology, an initial analysis was performed on the levels of each indicator. In Fig. 7 the relative quantifications are shown. Still using the Excel tool (above mentioned), each indicator has been mapped with the purpose of analysing the individual indicators and evaluating them according to the territorial and temporal distribution.

Fig.7 Indicators 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 for the Savona school system: qualitative analysis

The next phase concerns the quantification of the global index value in the time intervals considered.



INDICATOR 2 (Reference)


INDICATOR 4 (Localisation)

INDICATOR 5 (Alternative)

1 High Low Medium Medium Low

2 High Low Medium Medium Low

3 High Low Medium High Low

4 High Low Low High Low

…… …… …… …… …… ……

49 Low Medium Medium Medium High

50 Low High Medium Low Low

51 Low High High Low Low

52 Low High Medium Low Low

53 Low High High Low Low

54 Low High High Low Low

This phase shows the times when the risk exposure is greater and therefore what are the structures that need help in the emergency phase, but also in periods of peace to be able to reduce these levels of exposure in case of occurrence of an event. Starting from these values, for the considered temporal discretization, exposure scenarios for each single school is realized. Some considerations emerge from the analysis of the results obtained. Take for example the time interval between 7:30 am and 8:00 am on Monday, in Fig. 8 are shown the data and the representations - obtained through the power map - related to the presences and the global index calculated for the schools from Savona. Both graphically and in tables, in some cases, there is a strong difference in the value of the global index for the same number of exposed. In case 1: schools with 20 present are analyzed. The global index is very different. In fact, while for schools 7, 19 and 20 the index is a value between 0.15 and 0.25, for school 18 the index has a value of 0.55, so very high compared to the average. In case 2: schools with 25 present are analyzed, only school 6 has a very high global index value while the others take a value between 0.18 and 0.26.

Fig. 8 Comparison between exposure referring to number of present and to global index

The results of this first application show the importance of the factors introduced in the approach presented:

age of the subjects, position of the structure on the territory, ability to reach the school with the means of rescue. In fact, in an analysis of risk exposure it is not enough to consider only the number of those present, but a more in-depth analysis is required. The application of the approach ends with the proposition of some mitigation actions that can reduce the level of exposure by acting on the individual indicators proposed such as the increase of educators in kindergartens, the possible relocation of schools or emergency services, infrastructural interventions on roads. The proposed approach is therefore a new tool to be included in the Civil Protection Plans. The knowledge of the individual indicators and the global index can be useful to plan and correctly manage the different phases of risk, starting from prevention, emergency, post-emergency and reconstruction. The approach taken for the school system, if applied also to the other settlement systems, would lead to the realization of a global model at a territorial level for the definition of dynamic risk scenarios.

The introduction of such time scenarios within the Municipal Emergency Plans (mandatory from L.100 / 2012), allowing a greater knowledge of a territory, become a fundamental tool in ordinary time, to plan mitigation actions in order to make an area increasingly resilient to natural events.



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WEB SITES Last access June 2018; Last access June 2018; Last access June 2018; Last access June 2018; Last access June 2018; Last access June 2018


Francesca Pirlone is an associate professor in town planning at Polytechnic School - University of Genoa, PhD, engineer.

She is a teacher in three university courses of three Degree Courses. She has developed different lines of research, from requalification, natural risks, sustainability, waste, tourism, infrastructures and mobility, activities carried out in particular in EU and national programs. Author of numerous publications and speaker at International and National Conferences.

Ilenia Spadaro is an engineer, Ph.D. and research fellow in town planning; she carries out scientific activities at Polytechnic School, University of Genoa, where she is assistant in courses on Territorial Planning. Her researches are focused on ensuring safety of a territory by natural risks, requalification of historical-cultural heritage, environmental sustainability themes: waste, tourism, mobility and transport, energy. Author of several publications and speaker at International and National conferences.


Francesca Pirlone: the author has edited paragraph 1 and paragraph 2 in collaboration with I. Spadaro.

Ilenia Spadaro: the author has edited paragraph 3 and paragraph 2 in collaboration with F. Pirlone.

How to cite item in APA format:

In A. Leone & C. Gargiulo (Eds.), Environmental and territorial modelling for planning and design.

(pp. 52 - 55). Naples: FedOAPress. ISBN: 978-88-6887-048-5, doi: 10.6093/978-88-6887-048-5


In document Environmental and territorial modelling for planning and design (Page 164-169)