Gaussian process prediction and simulation-based based research

Gaussian process (GP) prediction is the foundation for sensitivity analysis and calibration of time-consuming computer models. For simulation-based research in systems biology, sen-

parameters and characterizes their effects, and calibration yields estimates of biological pa- rameters based on experimental data. Model comparison methods quantify the evidence in

favor of one biological model (e.g., model of immune behavior) over another. In chapter 2 we

use GP predictors in the analysis and calibration of a computer model ofL. major infection and in the comparison of alternative models of macrophage emigration.

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CHAPTER 2. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis in an