Possible impact of removal of quota restrictions

In document Garment Industry (Page 78-92)

Garment industry in India

6. Possible impact of removal of quota restrictions

Studies in general point to various possibilities for low-income economies like India in a MFA era. While greater access to markets is a distinct possibility under the post-MFA environment, competition from other countries may also possibly undermine the market shares. Given the multiplicity of factors determining outcomes of global integration, the outcomes cannot be, however, predicted with a great degree of certainty.

Irrespective of the possible trajectories that the sector may assume, the immediate impact of quota removal on labour is likely to be negative. Studies have pointed out that quota restrictions do constrain Indian garment exports (Khanna 1990). It is generally recognized that the removal of quota restrictions would lead to an expansion of export markets for Indian garment producers. On the other hand, the lower labour productivity of Indian labour observed in an earlier section, as compared to some of its competing nations like China, Indonesia and Bangladesh, may threaten India’s competitiveness and hence lead to a decline in exports. Since India seemingly has an edge in the semi-fashion segment where economies of scope rather than scale matter, it is possible that they may continue to retain or expand their shares in such markets. However, respondents from the industry and other secondary sources do indicate an anticipated threat from China even in this segment (Manager, Export firm, interview by the author in Tiruppur, dated 5/8/2001).

Given the structure and dynamics of the world garment industry, two possible strategies can be delineated to sustain/enhance apparel exports from India. One requires a spread to the mass market, through improved productivity, ensuring of scale economies by movement to large-scale production, installation of productivity enhancing techniques, etc. Given the presence of a domestic base in cotton, a movement to the large-scale sector would definitely

20 Except for the knitwear sector, which continues to be restricted to the small-scale sector.

benefit producers to compete in this segment. However, for labour, this movement is fraught with danger, as it would involve increases in competitiveness through productivity increase that may not always be through introduction of new or improved technologies. Rather, it may be due to greater extraction of labour power and a possible downward pressure on wage rates, rather than on extraction of relative surplus. Resistance on the part of labour to this trend may be met with relocation to other, less unionised regions within or outside the country. As borne out by the shifting geography of world apparel production, such a strategy is soon bound to flounder against the rise of new locations that can compete on the basis of still lower wages. Hence, competition based on lowering of wage costs would be detrimental to labour and to the industry as a whole in the long run.

To counter the strategy of footloose capital seeking out lower wage locations, it may be required to impose codes of sourcing or producing among manufacturers and importers globally. Such enforcement mechanisms, as has always been the case, would still be difficult to implement and ensure compliance. The continued use of child labour in Tiruppur is a case in point. Alternately, competing countries can come together and decide to co-operatively compete rather than eat into the market shares of each country. Importantly, it is imperative that they agree to the provision of a ‘living wage’ to its workers. Here, trade unions have an important role in ensuring that competition is based on ‘active’ rather than ‘passive’

flexibility. Labour institutions, by resisting downward pressures on wage rates, may force regions to compete through ‘high road’ strategies. We observed earlier that India has a greater comparative advantage vis-à-vis some of its main competing economies in specific product categories. Targeting these specific niches and seeking to build competitiveness in these segments and to move up the value chain may therefore be a better competitive strategy.

There may be less likelihood of a downward pressure on wage rates and work conditions, when competition is based on fashion and design rather than on costs. Such competition warrants firms to move into upper segments of the hierarchy of the apparel market or create new niches. The strategy involves higher marketing and selling efforts apart from considerations of quality and timeliness of delivery. This would involve creation of new institutions by the state that would enable producers to compete ‘actively’ as opposed to

‘passive’ competition based on lowering of wage costs. Improvements in process and manufacturing techniques require installation of new machinery that warrants access to institutional credit, which is at present difficult to access for most firms in the apparel sector given their confinement to the ‘unorganized’ sector.

In the global commodity chain, given the lack of access to high-fashion markets, producers may continue to face disadvantages. However, as borne out by the experiences of East Asian economies like Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan, movement along the value chain and backward integration is feasible to an extent. A closer understanding of the experiences of these economies may offer valuable lessons for South Asian garment exporters.

Diversification of output markets into new geographical regions would be another key

component of a ‘high road’ strategy. Another complementary strategy to overcome this hurdle to enable the labour to retain or improve their incomes would involve expansion of the domestic market and competition in the domestic market through design and fashion.

Expertise built in the domestic market may serve to build competitiveness in the global premium segments.

ANNEXURE 2 Table A3.1: Segmentwise composition of Indian garment exports, 1983-91

(in percent value) Year Handloom garments share Knitted garments share Millmade garments

share

1983 6.9 16.9 76.2

1984 4.9 17.0 78.1

1985 3.5 15.6 80.9

1986 1.9 17.6 80.5

1987 1.1 19.5 79.4

1988 0.9 21.2 77.8

1989 0.6 22.0 77.4

1990 0.3 22.5 77.2

1991 0.3 22.7 77.0

Source: Chatterjee and Mohan 1993, M-104.

Table A3.2: Segmentwise and fibrewise composition of garment exports, 1991/92 – 1999

(in percent value) Year Knitted garments Handloom garments Mill made garments

Cotton Synthetic Wool Cotton Synthetic Wool Cotton Synthetic Wool

1991-92 22.1 0.9 0.30 0.4 0.00 41.3 28.9 0.2

1992-93 26.5 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.00 46.1 24.2 0.5

1993-94 26.5 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.00 47.9 20.4 1.4.

1995 23.3 1.06 1.46 0.82 0.03 0.00 44.8 25.12 2.29

1996 26.59 1.6 2.48 0.61 0.01 0.02 44.1 23.08 0.98

1997 29.14 1.23 2.52 0.25 0.01 0.01 42.01 23.67 1.33

1998 28.11 1.86 2.26 0.16 0.01 0.02 42.51 24.26 0.81

1999 30.97 2.28 2.16 0.13 0.03 0.03 39.34 23.88 1.18

Source: Handbook of Export Statistics, AEPC, and various issues.

Table A3.3: Ranking of leading apparel exporting countries, 1980-95

Rank 1980 1990 1995

1 Hong Kong Italy China

2 Italy China Italy

3 South Korea Hong Kong Hong Kong

4 Germany Germany Germany

5 Chinese Taipei South Korea US

6 France France Turkey

7 UK Chinese Taipei France

8 China Portugal South Korea

9 US Turkey Thailand

10 Netherlands UK UK

11 Portugal Thailand India

12 India US Portugal

13 Thailand India Chinese Taipei

14 Turkey Netherlands Indonesia

15 Indonesia Indonesia Netherlands

Source: Calculated from Ramaswamy and Gereffi 998, 124.

Table A3.4: Itemwise composition of India’s garment exports

Item description 1991 -$ Million 1991 -Share 1994 -$ Million 1994 -Share

Clothing and accessories 2531.1 100 3711.9 100

Men’s outerwear non-knit 94.0 3.7 156.8 4.2

Women’s outerwear non-knit 1032.8 40.8 1409.2 38.0

Dresses 191.8 7.6 286.0 7.7

Skirts 85.5 3.4 193.9 5.2

Blouses 510.2 20.2 617.7 16.6

Outer garments 166.8 6.6 214.6 5.8

Undergarments non-knit 435.5 17.2 724.6 19.5

Men’s shirts 408.6 16.1 659.0 17.8

Of cotton 325.6 12.9 604.5 16.3

Of synthetic fibres 83.0 3.3 54.5 1.5

Outwear knit non-elastic 236.6 9.3 338.5 9.1

Jerseys, pullovers, etc 70.0 2.8 116.0 3.1

Outer clothing accessories 123.5 4.9 175.6 4.7

Undergarments knitted 298.2 11.8 480.3 12.9

Textile clothing accessories nec 106.4 4.2 172.6 4.7

Headgear non-textile clothing 327.5 12.9 429.9 11.6

Source: Ramaswami and Gereffi (1998, 124)

Table A3.5: Market share in 16 categories of MFA imports of the US, 1996

Category description US imports India Bangla- Pakistan Sri Indo- China Hong

$US million desh Lanka nesia Kong

all countries

Cotton women’s non knit shirt 891.6 24.9 6.5 1.5 5.9 5.6 7.2 24.8

Cotton men’s knit shirt 2919.1 6.4 1.7 10.2 3.0 2.9 5.1 4.1

Cotton men’s non knit shirt 2137.3 7.7 7.6 1.3 3.2 5.9 2.9 13.7

Cotton other manufacturers 812.5 21.7 3.2 15.4 1.2 0.5 23.9 0.9

Manmade fibre dresses 904.6 8.7 0.9 0.1 4.9 6.6 18.5 5.7

Cotton other apparel 1157.7 4.7 10.5 2.1 5.3 4.6 15.3 10.3

Cotton women’s knit shirt 1937.2 2.6 0.7 2.4 1.5 1.7 2.5 10.5

MMF women’s non-knit shirt 555.1 9.0 2.8 0.1 4.2 15.7 20.7 8.6

MMF skirts 419.7 10.9 0.6 0.1 4.5 5.3 8.3 6.6

Cotton dresses 403.4 8.4 3.9 4.1 3.2 3.5 5.4 6.4

Cotton/terry towels 264.2 11.5 3.4 17.9 1.0 0.0 14.8 0.4

MMF women’s coats 1066.9 2.6 3.1 0.7 3.3 2.9 15.9 9.6

Cotton skirts 345.0 7.9 4.1 1.9 7.7 4.0 5.6 14.5

Cotton women’s coat 354.4 6.3 4.5 0.8 7.6 2.6 21.0 14.3

Cotton sweaters 336.5 5.6 0.7 0.1 1.2 9.6 8.1 23.0

Cotton men’s trousers 2942.2 0.7 3.5 0.8 1.9 3.8 3.8 8.1

Cotton women’s trousers 2288.7 0.9 1.4 0.6 2.1 2.4 4.8 17.4

Source: Ramaswami and Gereffi (1998, 127)

Table A3.6: Revealed comparative advantage indices for China, India and Indonesia

(Garment exports in 1995)

China India Indonesia

No SITC Code RCA SITC code RCA SITC Code RCA

1 6216 20.41868 6214 25.47747 6101 12.31565

2 6213 16.97167 6105 23.72659 6201 10.68808

3 6207 13.76015 6206 21.77933 6202 7.458491

4 6208 13.15757 6205 18.29961 6207 6.877363

5 6116 13.03601 6204 8.569124 6105 6.400447

6 6201 10.50433 6213 7.260608 6113 6.216069

7 6202 9.861238 6208 7.053777 6205 5.369276

8 6103 9.814193 6209 6.599515 6103 5.20369

9 6211 8.670356 6102 6.317059 6112 5.006139

10 6203 8.625962 6207 5.751711 6208 4.550881

11 6204 8.084695 6107 5.482587 6216 4.540025

12 6209 7.954618 6106 4.257315 6206 4.030377

13 6110 7.395208 6103 4.172825 6209 3.937918

14 6109 7.388566 6108 3.699704 6102 3.822141

15 6107 7.314404 6111 3.083288 6210 3.677161

16 6206 6.675327 6104 2.573658 6212 3.563028

17 6205 6.602632 6114 2.487196 6204 3.454933

18 6108 6.594367 6109 2.462706 6116 2.943717

19 6102 5.658824 6117 1.864298 6108 2.872122

20 6214 5.21159 6211 1.850897 6104 2.811419

21 6104 5.197849 6110 1.797846 6111 2.772384

22 6112 5.17591 6203 1.671318 6110 2.614283

23 6101 4.389822 6210 1.640403 6203 2.606099

24 6212 4.296899 6202 1.337566 6115 2.353513

25 6217 4.109059 6216 1.252611 6109 2.257602

26 6215 3.861471 6215 0.951947 6106 2.242135

27 6117 3.749343 6101 0.744278 6107 2.19887

28 6210 3.711216 6115 0.701844 6211 1.362646

29 6111 3.506931 6217 0.569176 6114 1.245352

30 6113 3.033534 6112 0.564115 6117 0.726294

31 6114 2.655998 6201 0.544429 6214 0.562155

32 6115 2.64036 6113 0.473302 6217 0.457038

33 6105 0.868824 6116 0.449461 6213 0.154843

34 6106 0.578157 6212 0.083619 6215 0.011023

Note: The products that the SITC codes represent are given in Appendix 1.

Source: Calculated from ‘India Trades’, CMIE.

Table A3.7: Products with highest comparative advantages among the three countries

INDIA

Women’s or girls’ overcoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks (including ski-jackets, wind-cheaters, 6102 wind-jackets) and similar articles, knitted or crocheted, other than those of heading 6101

Men’s or boys’ shirts, knitted or crocheted. 6105

Women’s or girls, blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses, knitted or crocheted. 6106 Women’s or girls’ suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, dresses, skirts, divided skirts, trousers, bib 6204 and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (other than swimwear).

Men’s or boys’ shirts 6205

Women’s or girls’ blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses. 6206

Shawls, scarves, mufflers, mantillas, veils and the like. 6214

INDONESIA

Men’s or boys’ overcoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks (including ski-jackets), wind-cheaters, 6101 wind-jackets and similar articles, knitted or crocheted, other than those of heading No. 61.03.

Garments, made up of knitted or crocheted fabrics of heading No. 59.03, 59.06 or 59.07. 6113 Men’s or boys’ overcoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks (including ski-jackets), wind-cheaters,

wind-jackets and similar articles, other than those of heading No. 62.03. 6201 CHINA

Men’s or boys’ suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches

and shorts (other than swimwear), knitted or crocheted. 6103

Women’s or girls’ suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, dresses, skirts, dividend skirts, trousers,

bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (other than swimwear), knitted or crocheted. 6104 Men’s or boys’ underpants, briefs, night-shirts, pyjamas, bathrobes, dressing gowns and

similar articles, knitted or crocheted. 6107

Women’s or girls’ slips, petticoats, briefs panties, night-dresses, pyjamas, negligees,

bathrobes, dressing gowns and similar articles, knitted or crocheted. 6108

T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knitted or crocheted. 6109

Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles, knitted or crocheted. 6110 Babies’ garments and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted. 6111

Track suits, ski suits and swimwear, knitted or crocheted. 6112

Other garments, knitted or crocheted 6114

Panty hose, tights, stockings, socks and other hosiery, including stockings for varicose veins

and footwear without applied soles, knitted or crocheted. 6115

Gloves, mittens and mitts, knitted or crocheted 6116

Other made up clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted; knitted or crocheted parts of

garments or of clothing accessories. 6117

Women’s or girls’ overcoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks (including ski-jackets),

wind-cheaters, wind-jackets and similar articles, other than those of heading No. 62.04. 6202 Men’s or boys’ suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches

and shorts (other than swimwear). 6203

Men’s or boys’ singlets and other vests, underpants, briefs, night-shirts, pyjamas, bathrobes,

dressing gowns and similar articles. 6207

Women’s or girls’ singlets and other vests, slips, petticoats, briefs, panties, night-dresses, pyjamas,

negligees, bathrobes, dressing gowns and similar articles. 6208

contd.

Babies’ garments and clothing accessories 6209 Garments, made up of fabrics of heading No. 56.02, 56.03, 59.03, 59.06 or 59.07. 6210

Track suits, ski suits and swimwear; other garments. 6211

Brassieres, girdles, corsets, braces, suspenders, garters and similar articles and parts thereof,

whether or not knitted or crocheted. 6212

Handkerchiefs 6213

Ties, bow ties and cravats 6215

Gloves, mittens and mitts. 6216

Other made up clothing accessories; parts of garments or of clothing accessories, other than

those of heading No. 62.12. 6217

Source: Calculated from ‘India Trades’, CMIE.

Table A3.8: SITC codes for garment product categories under the harmonised system

Trade classification(SITC) description Code

Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted 61 Men’s or boys’ overcoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks (including ski-jackets), 6101 wind-cheaters, wind-jackets and similar articles, knitted or crocheted, other than those

of heading No. 61.03.

Women’s or girls’ overcoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks (including ski-jackets, 6102 windcheaters, wind-jackets) and similar articles, knitted or crocheted, other than those

of heading No. 61.04.

Men’s or boys’ suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, trousers, bib and brace overalls, 6103 breeches and shorts (other than swimwear), knitted or crocheted.

Women’s or girls’ suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, dresses, skirts, dividend skirts, 6104 trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (other than swimwear), knitted

or crocheted.

Men’s or boys’ shirts, knitted or crocheted. 6105

Women’s or girls, blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses, knitted or crocheted. 6106 Men’s or boys’ underpants, briefs, night-shirts, pyjamas, bathrobes, dressing gowns 6107 and similar articles, knitted or crocheted.

Women’s or girls’ slips, petticoats, briefs panties, night-dresses, pyjamas, negligees, 6108 bathrobes, dressing gowns and similar articles, knitted or crocheted.

T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knitted or crocheted. 6109

Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles, knitted or crocheted. 6110 Babies’ garments and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted. 6111

Track suits, ski suits and swimwear, knitted or crocheted. 6112

Garments, made up of knitted or crocheted fabrics of heading No. 59.03, 59.06 or 59.07. 6113

Other garments, knitted or crocheted 6114

Panty hose, tights, stockings, socks and other hosiery, including stockings for varicose

veins and footwear without applied soles, knitted or crocheted. 6115

Gloves, mittens and mitts, knitted or crocheted 6116

Other made up clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted; knitted or crocheted parts of

garments or of clothing accessories. 6117

Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, not knitted or crocheted 62

contd.

Table A3.7: Products with highest comparative advantages among the three countries (contd.)

Men’s or boys’ overcoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks (including ski-jackets),

wind-cheaters, wind-jackets and similar articles, other than those of heading No. 62.03. 6201 Women’s or girls’ overcoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks (including ski-jackets),

wind-cheaters, wind-jackets and similar articles, other than those of heading No. 62.04. 6202 Men’s or boys’ suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches

and shorts (other than swimwear). 6203

Men’s or boys’ shirts 6205

Women’s or girls’ blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses. 6206

Men’s or boys’ singlets and other vests, underpants, briefs, nightshirts, pyjamas,

bathrobes, dressing gowns and similar articles. 6207

Women’s or girls’ singlets and other vests, slips, petticoats, briefs, panties, nightdresses,

pyjamas, negligees, bathrobes, dressing gowns and similar articles. 6208

Babies’ garments and clothing accessories 6209

Garments, made up of fabrics of heading No. 56.02, 56.03, 59.03, 59.06 or 59.07. 6210

Track suits, ski suits and swimwear; other garments. 6211

Brassieres, girdles, corsets, braces, suspenders, garters and similar articles and parts

thereof, whether or not knitted or crocheted. 6212

Handkerchiefs 6213

Shawls, scarves, mufflers, mantillas, veils and the like. 6214

Ties, bow ties and cravats 6215

Gloves, mittens and mitts. 6216

Other made up clothing accessories; parts of garments or of clothing accessories,

other than those of heading No. 62.12. 6217

Table A3.8: SITC codes for garment product categories under the harmonised system (contd.)

Trade classification(SITC) description Code

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In document Garment Industry (Page 78-92)