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Rainfall estimation from CML is based on power measurements from the electromagne- tic signal along a link path, i.e., between transmitter and receiver. Rainfall rates can be retrieved from the decrease in power, which is largely due to the attenuation of the elec- tromagnetic signal by raindrops along the link path. The power-law relation between at- tenuation and rainfall (along a link path) was established byOlsen et al.(1978) andAtlas

and Ulbrich(1977) as:

A=aRb (5.1)

whereAis the specific attenuation[dB·km−1]along the link path attributed to rainfall

andRis the rainfall rate[mm·h−1]. The coefficientaand exponentbdepend on the fre-

quency and polarization of the electromagnetic signal, the DSD, and (to a much lesser extent) on the raindrop temperature. At the frequencies CML commonly operate, the ex- ponentbin Eq. (5.1) is∼1.0.Atlas and Ulbrich(1977) state that the near-linearity between

rain rates and specific attenuation (in the20−40GHz band) “makes it possible to use the

total path loss as a direct measure ofR[average rain rate] independent of the form of the

distribution ofR[rain rate] along the path”.

Both the degree to which Eq. (5.1) holds and the values ofaandbare determined by the

DSD. In order to study how strongly this relation deviates from other relations found in the literature, we determine values ofaandbbased on measured DSDs from the São

Paulo region. For each1-min DSD, we compute the corresponding rainfall intensity and

specific attenuation at the three most common frequency bands in São Paulo (11,18,

and23GHz). Specific attenuation is computed for vertically polarized signals (most CML

operate using this polarization) using T-Matrix scattering computations (e.g.Mishchenko,

2000), assuming raindrop oblateness as a function of its volume-equivalent diameter gi- ven byAndsager et al.(1999), and a raindrop temperature of287.15K. The values ofaand bare subsequently determined by nonlinear fitting of Eq. (5.1) to the computed values of RandA.

Figure5.3showstheresultingpower-lawrelationsforthethreedifferentfrequencybands. Also shown in this figure are the power-law relations derived for rainfall in the Nether- lands as used byOvereem et al.(2016b) and those recommended by the International Te- 4DSD data from Parsivel and other disdrometers for the region of São Paulo (and other regions across Bra-

lecommunication Union (ITU). It is clear from this figure that there are certainly differen- ces, and that these differences at high rainfall intensities are largest for the 11-GHz band. For the higher frequencies, these differences are more limited, especially for high rainfall intensities. This is in line with what has been found earlier (e.g.Berne and Uijlenhoet, 2007;

Leijnse et al., 2008). 0.1 1 10 100 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10

Specific attenuation [dB/km]

Rainf

all intensity [mm/h]

DSD data ITU NL SP Frequency 11GHz 18GHz 23GHz

Figure 5.3: Rainfall intensity against specific attenuation for theaandbpara-

meters of three DSD models, i.e, local (SP - continuous line), suggested by ITU-R Recommendation P.838-3 (ITU - dashed line), and RAINLINK's default (NL - dot-

ted line). TheA−Rrelations are presented for three frequencies:11,18, and

23GHz.

RAINLINK (Overeem et al., 2016b) is an R package (R Core Team, 2016) in which rain rates

and area-wide rainfall maps can be derived from CML attenuation measurements. A very brief description of the algorithm is as follows: 1) wet-dry classification−a link is con- sidered for non-zero rainfall retrievals if the received power jointly decreases with that of nearby links; 2) attenuation estimates are obtained from the difference between RSL and the reference signal level representative of dry weather (the median signal level of all dry periods in the previous24h); 3) outlier removal−exclusion of links for which the specificattenuation(accumulatedover24h)deviatestoomuchfromthatofnearbylinks;

4)15-minaveragerainfallintensitiesarecomputedfromaweightedaverageofminimum

and maximum rainfall intensities obtained by the (inverse) power-law of Eq. (5.1); and 5) through Ordinary Kriging the rainfall intensities are interpolated into rainfall maps for the land surface of the Netherlands. This latter step was not implemented in this study.

Overeem et al.(2016b) give a more detailed and in-depth review and/or description about

5.2. Study Area, Data and Methods

Error and Uncertainty Metrics

We evaluated the rainfall estimates from RAINLINK through 1) the relative bias, 2) the coefficient of variation (CV), and 3) the coefficient of determination (r2).

For a given CML, the relative bias is a relative measure of the average error between the RAINLINK estimatesRRAINLINK,iand the gauge rainfall measurementsRgauge,i(the latter

considered as the ground truth):

relative bias= Rres

Rgauge = n X i=1 Rres,i n X i=1 Rgauge,i , (5.2)

whereRres,i = RRAINLINK,i−Rgauge,iandnrepresents all possible time steps for the

(rainfall) event under consideration.Rres,iare the residuals, i.e., the difference between RRAINLINK,iandRgauge,i.RresandRgaugeare the average of the residuals and gauge rain-

fall measurements (in mm), respectively. The relative bias ranges from−1to+∞, where

0represents unbiased rainfall estimates.

Thecoefficientofvariationisadimensionlessmeasureofdispersion(Haan,1977), defined

in this case as the standard deviation of the residualsqVarc Rres

divided by the mean of

the gauge rainfall measurements, for the evaluated CML: CV=

q c

Var Rres

Rgauge . (5.3)

The CV is a measure of uncertainty. It ranges from0(a hypothetical case with no uncer-

tainty) to∞.

The coefficient of determination is a measure of the strength of the linear dependence between two random variables, RAINLINK estimates and gauge rainfall measurements in this case. It is defined as the square of the correlation coefficient betweenRRAINLINK,i

andRgauge,i:

r2= Covc

2

Rgauge, RRAINLINK

c

Var Rgauge·Varc RRAINLINK

, (5.4)

whereVarc Rgauge

andVarc RRAINLINK

are the variance of gauge rainfall measurements and RAINLINK estimates, respectively; andCovc

2

Rgauge, RRAINLINKthe squared covari-

ance between these two variables. r2ranges from0to1, this latter the case of perfect

linear correlation, i.e., all data points would fall on a straight line without any scatter. Per- fectlinearitydoesnotimplyunbiasedestimatesbecausetheregressionlinedoesnothave to coincide with the1:1line, even if it captures all variability.

The metrics were computed on30-min paired rainfall depths, both above0mm to only

accountfor(significant)rainfallevents.30-minaggregationwasnecessarygiventhetem-

poral resolutions of the datasets, i.e.,10min for gauge and15min for link-retrieved data.

5.3

Results and Discussion