a) The “crude oil trade” sector has been considered separately, w ith respect to shipborne volum es as w ell as fleet gross tonnage and, consequently, new tonnage requirements.
T w o different series of equations of regression— one for this crude oil trade sector and the other for the whole of other sectors— were thus used in parallel, in the
m odel set up. This m ade possible a m ore accurate determ ination of the double cor relation used in 1 969 betw een, on the one hand, the growth of O E C D m em ber countries’ G N P and the whole of seaborne cargoes and, on the other hand, between the latter and the gross tonnage of the w orld fleet. In particular, it was possible to define, for the crude oil trade, a regression equation of “m odified geom etrical” form which gives a better account of the recent evolution than the linear equation pre viously used for the whole of international seaborne trade. H ow ever, the latter form of adjustm ent has been maintained for the sector of “dry cargoes” to which it is better suited.
b) Tw o alternate assum ptions regarding the effective growth of the O E C D G N P have been chosen, this time, for the 1 9 7 0 -1 9 8 0 period, still covered by the new estimates.
The high assum ption im plies an average annual growth rate of 5 .2 5 % , in accordance with the 1970 forecasts for the 1980 range, prepared by O E C D experts, regarding the econom ic expansion that should be achieved by m em ber countries “in the absence of any m ajor econom ic or political difficulties” and pre supposing, besides, that “the trend towards a liberalization of international sea borne trade should be maintained”.
These reserves led the working group to adopt also a low assumption reducing the average annual growth rate to 4 .7 5 % . This precaution seem s to be justified by the recent developm ents and by the expected consequences of the present inter national m onetary crisis.
H ow ever, this low assum ption is higher than the single one m entioned in the 1969 report and which im plied a rate of 4 .5 % per annum for the effective econom ic growth of O E C D m em ber countries.
c) A s far as newbuilding requirem ents are concerned, due consideration was given, for the calculation of the w orld fleet replacem ent rate, to the recent trend towards advancing the average age of elimination of ships in operation, a phenom enon which derives from the acceleration of technological progress. 2) The results of this revision are shown in Table A herein, and call for the fol lowing comments:
a) The expansion of international seaborne trade expected in the present decade, should be based on an average annual growth rate ranging between 7.6 and 8 .5 % in the “oil trade” sector, and between 5.4 and 6 % in the sector “other cargoes”, i.e. “dry cargoes”.
b) The forecasts form ulated with respect to the gross tonnage of the world m erchant fleet in 1 980 correspond to average annual growth rates ranging between 7.2 and 7 .9 % as regards tankers and between 4.2 and 4 .7 % for other ships. c) The total new tonnage requirem ents derived from the expected growth and replacem ent rates of both sections of the w orld merchant fleet are within a range extending from 2 4 4.3 to 2 5 9 .3 million grt in the 1 9 7 0 -1 9 8 0 period.
On an annual basis, these requirem ents w ould correspond to average newbuilding deliveries ranging betw een 22.2 and 2 3 .6 million grt a year. This new forecast is therefore much higher than those appearing in the 1969 report.
d) Such a long-term forecast should be com pared with the average annual
deliveries of the w orld shipbuilding industry during the previous period—1960-
1970— which amount to 12.8 million grt.
In centering these past average deliveries in the year 1965 and the estim ated future average annual requirem ents in the year 1975, the overall approach has m ade it possible to consider that the long-term trend of evolution of the w orld shipbuilding production shows an annual growth rate in the order of 5 .7 to 6 .3 % per annum to m eet the new tonnage requirements, assuming that the latter w ould not be either advanced or deferred due to short-term conjunctural variations.
Owing to these variations, it does not seem possible to foresee the actual volum e of deliveries in a given calendar year. Therefore, the only possible forecasts are average annual newbuilding requirem ents forecasts. H ow ever the extrapolation up to the end of this decade of the long-term trend defined in the overall approach, places the w orld shipyards’ average level of output at this time between 2 9 .4 and 32 million grt.
Indeed, The W orking Group consider that, over and above the short-term conjunc tural variations, the corrective mechanisms existing in the m aritim e econom y tend, in the long term, to align newbuilding dem and and deliveries with the actual requirem ents of seaborne trade.
B. Evolution of production capacities
The revision of the theoretical capacity forecast for the year 1975 appearing in the 1969 report has been conducted as follows:
a) The case of the m ajor shipbuilding countries was considered separately but, apart from Japan which, due to its im portance, stands alone as the main ship building centre in the world, these countries were grouped in areas according to geographic, econom ic and political criteria: thus, W estern Europe was divided into 3 regions: “N orth-W estern”, “South-W estern and South-Eastern” and the Com m on M arket in its present extension. Likew ise, the rest of the w orld was divided into the countries of the “Socialist B loc”, U nited States and “Developing Countries”.
b) A n inventory of all the projects of creation, extension and m odernization started up or announced as decided since the beginning of 1969 has been under taken, according to the information available at the end of the Summer of 1971. The extra production capacities, corresponding to the production program m es announced— or estim ated according to the characteristics of investm ents— have been in each case calculated in terms of grt for the year 1975. H ow ever, only the projects offering a high degree of credibility, due to their state of progression, the im portance and quality of the investors and the concerned country, were taken into account.
2) Table B herein depicts the opinion now prevailing among the working group