304. The domestic output part matrix shows estimates of domestic industries’ total output, (gross sales adjusted for changes in inventories of work in progress and finished goods) compiled at basic prices. However, for the balancing process the estimates of gross domestic product are required at purchasers’ prices, i.e. those actually paid by the purchasers to take delivery of the goods, excluding any deductible VAT.

305. To convert the estimates from output valued at basic prices to output at purchasers’ prices requires the addition of:

• the value of imports of goods and services

• distributors’ trading margins

• taxes (lesssubsidies) on products

Use table

306. The Use table reveals the input structure of each industry in terms of domestic and imported goods and services. It shows the product composition of final demand and, for each industry, the intermediate consumption.

307. The product purchases are represented in the rows of the table while

consumption by industries, and final demands, are represented in the columns. The body of the table, which represents product output, is at purchasers’ prices and so already reflects the product-specific taxes added to the supply matrix.

308. The Supply-Use tables are balanced when:

For industries,

inputs(from the Use Table)

equal

outputs(from the Supply Table).

For products

supply(from the Supply Table)

equals

demand(from the Use Table).

309. That is, when the data from the income, expenditure and production approaches are used to fill the tables all produce the same estimate of current price GDP.

Annex 1

106

The balancing process

310. Initial estimates – once the initial data estimates have been gathered, estimates of the components of supply and demand for products are prepared, together with the estimates of industry outputs and inputs (thus value added). The resulting production- based estimates of current price value added are then compared with the expenditure and income measures and the checks and analysis which follow extend the validation checks which will already have been carried out on the initial data estimates. The investigations which follow often lead to the revision and redelivery of data.

311. In parallel with this work, alternative estimates of value added for each of the one hundred and twenty-three industries are prepared using income-based data.

312. The coherence of these initial estimates is then assessed by:

• comparisons of gross value added for each industry using the income and production-based approaches, and

• comparisons of the components of supply and demand for each type of product

(which effectively compare the production and expenditure approaches).

313. In addition a variety of time series, for example, growth rates and the ratio of gross value added to total output, are compiled to aid the assessment. At this stage the resulting income, production and expenditure aggregates will typically show different profiles over time. To obtain the revised estimates an iterative process begins to reconcile income and production-based estimates of industry value added and the supply and demand for each product.

314. These estimates are scrutinised and validated and checked for their plausibility and coherence across all industries and products. Consistency and coherence over time are also important and the impact of revisions to earlier years and the quality of the relative data sources are also taken into account. When necessary other sources (for example ONS survey data and company reports and accounts), are used to inform the investigation of particular areas.

315. Final estimates – as final estimates are received from data compilers the steps of assessment and scrutiny, comparison and reconciliation continue. For the time series under consideration the quality of source data, revisions performance and any specific estimation problems are taken into account. Any changes to estimates are agreed and the inconsistencies between supply and demand, and between production and income-based gross value added, are continually reduced. This process continues until convergence between the aggregate totals is achieved.

316. The single best estimate of GDP which emerges will reflect the relative merits of the production, income and expenditure estimates at the aggregate level. It will also have been assessed after consideration of the effect on current and constant price expenditure growth rates, the impact on the expenditure deflator, and the relation between current and constant price gross value added.

317. Once this GDP estimate has been fine tuned and agreed by all concerned, the industry gross value added and the gross value added weights are fixed after a full reconciliation of the income-based components with the output-based estimate. Product supply and demand will still differ at this stage because of the lack of detailed source data on, for example, distributors’ trading margins and the allocation of other services provided by manufacturers, but adjustments are made until a balance is achieved. The Use table is then fully balanced by adjusting the

intermediate consumption within the predetermined column and row totals. The end result is a full Supply-Use tables balance where input equals output and supply equals demand for all one hundred and twenty-three product and industry groups.

318. The annual coherence adjustments required to achieve a balance are also published in the Blue Book and Input-Output Analysis publications.

319. The National Accounts are currently in the early stages of a re-engineering programme. Key aspirations of the review include:

• the introduction of automated balancing of the quarterly estimates to improve the transparency of the balancing process;

• maximising the use of data by balancing Expenditure, Input and Output quarterly

data in a Supply-Use table;

• the balancing of the annual estimate of GDP in both the current year’s and the previous year’s prices in a Supply Use table framework.

320. More detail on the changes being considered can be found in Tuke and Aldin (2004).

108

ONS Annex 2.

In document "Last quarter’s GDP growth rate revised up by O 3pp": a typical revision? (Page 105-108)