TABLE II.3 Regression Model:

In document Internal migration and political change in India : a case study of a new industrial town (Page 60-69)

Dependent Variable: Proportion of Total Votes Secured by the Congress in the Traditional City Seats it Contested Number of cases = 103

Constant term = +0.438

Coefficient of ^

determination, R = .141

Variables Estimated coefficient

Literacy level 0.031

Per cent of migrants 0.031

Sales Tax 0.022 F 7 8 4 TABLE 11.4 Regression Model:

Dependent Variable: Proportion of Total Votes Secured by the Communists in the Seats They

Contested

Number of cases = 46

Constant term = 0.305

Coefficient of ^

determination, R = .271

Variable Estimated coefficient

North India -0.100

Per capita sales tax 0.039

Sex ratio 0.036 -Value .804 .200 .157 -Value 4.695 3.603 3.045

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some data which were available for traditional cities were not available for industrial towns or were inapplicable in their case. for example function of workforce, decennial growth rate, and percentage of migrants were additional variables included in the analysis of traditional cities. So I decided to use these data in a critical analysis to make the comparison of voting patterns in industrial towns and traditional cities more reliable.

Method of Analysis

The analysis was done in two stages. In the first stage I examined the influence of all independent real and dummy variables separately on the vote secured by each party. In the second stage I deleted variables whose P

14

statistic was below the 10 per cent level of significance and worked out the overall coefficient of determination of all the independent variables whose P statistic was significant enough to be included in the model.

The proportion of total variation accounted for by the independent 15

variables was highest in relation to the religious rightist vote, next

highest in relation to the Communist vote and least in relation to the Congress vote. Of all the independent variables included in the analysis, the class of dummy variables based on the geographical location of the city was associated most closely with the voting patterns.

Voting Support for Congress

In general the cities which had registered a high, level of Congress vote were characterised by high literacy, low percentage of migrants, and high sales tax per capita. In general Congress was less popular in the traditional cities of north India than elsewhere. It may be observed in Table II.3 that the variables of literacy, percentage of migrants, and sales tax per capita accounted for 14.1 per cent of the variation in votes secured by the Congress.

The dummy variables based on function of workforce, and geographical location of city did not affect the Congress vote in any way.

Voting Support for Communists

The results of the regression are much clearer in the case of the Communists. Of the ten independent variables, three — northern region, sales tax per capita, and sex ratio — produced P statistic above the ten per cent

TAELE

II.5

Regression Model:

Dependent Variable: Proportion of Total Votes Secured by the Religious Rightist

Parties in the Seats ^hey Contested

Number of cases Constant term Coefficient of determination 81 0.056 0.397 Variable Regression coefficient Computed P-Value North India 0.178 50.624 Entertainment Tax - 0.037 9-982 Percentage of migrants 0.029 5.953 East India 0.090 5.658 Manufacturing Cities 0.042 3-398

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l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e . The p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l v a r i a t i o n i n th e com m unist v o te a c c o u n te d f o r by t h e s e t h r e e v a r i a b l e s was a s h ig h a s 27*1 p e r c e n t

(TABLE I I .4) . The F s t a t i s t i c o f none o f th e o t h e r v a r i a b l e s was above th e 10 p e r c e n t l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e . But th e i n c l u s i o n o f f i v e s u c h v a r i a b l e s i n th e m odel im proved th e e x p l a n a t i o n by 2 .6 p e r c e n t . One w ould e x p e c t t h a t t h e c i t i e s i n w h ich i n d u s t r i a l la b o u r was n u m e r i c a l ly d o m in an t i n th e w ork­ f o r c e w ould v o te more h e a v i l y f o r th e C o m m unists. B ut th e a d d i t i o n o f

dummy v a r i a b l e s b a se d on f u n c t i o n o f w o rk fo rc e d id n o t im prove th e c o e f f i c i e n t o f d e t e r m i n a t i o n . V o tin g S u p p o rt f o r R e l ig io u s R i g h t i s t s Of th e e i g h t in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , f i v e — n o r t h I n d i a , e n t e r t a i n m e n t t a x p e r c a p i t a , p e r c e n ta g e o f m i g r a n ts , e a s t I n d i a and m a n u fa c tu r in g c i t i e s — w ere s i g n i f i c a n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w ith th e v o te o f th e r e l i g i o u s r i g h t i s t p a r t i e s . The p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l v a r i a t i o n a c c o u n te d f o r by a l l th e s e v a r i a b l e s was 3 9 .7 p e r c e n t (TABLE I I .5) . The t r a d i t i o n a l c i t i e s t h a t e x te n d e d g r e a t e r s u p p o r t to r e l i g i o u s r i g h t i s t p a n t i e s w ere l o c a t e d i n n o r t h and e a s t I n d i a . They w ere g e n e r a l l y b ack w ard , t h e i r p o p u la tio n c h a r a c t e r i s e d by lo w e r p u r c h a s in g p ow er, low s ta n d a r d o f l i v i n g , low e d u c a t i o n a l a c h ie v e m e n ts b u t a h ig h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f m ig r a n t p o p u l a t i o n . A lso a m a j o r i t y o f th e w o rk fo rc e i n th e c i t i e s t h a t e x te n d e d r e l a t i v e l y h ig h e r s u p p o r t f o r th e J a n a Sangh was en g ag ed i n m a n u fa c tu r in g i n d u s t r i e s . U n d o u b ted ly t h e s e a r e th e t y p i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e n o r t h I n d ia n t r a d i t i o n a l c i t i e s w here th e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n h a s b een g r e a t l y a f f e c t e d by th e i n and o u t m i g r a ti o n o f th e r e f u g e e p o p u l a t i o n owing to th e p a r t i t i o n o f th e c o u n tr y i n 1947»"^ W ith in th e c i t i e s w ith th e above a g g r e g a te

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c one w o u ld , h o w e v e r, w onder w h e th e r th e c o m p a r a tiv e ly p o o r , ■uneducated, u n em ploy ed , and m ig r a n ts o r t h e i r c o u n t e r p a r t s h ad v o te d f o r th e r e l i g i o u s r i g h t i s t p a r t i e s . F u r t h e r , when a l l th e in d e p e n d e n t and r e a l v a r i a b l e s and a l l th e c l a s s e s o f dummy v a r i a b l e s w ere in c lu d e d i n th e m o d el, th e dummy v a r i a b l e o f n o r t h e r n r e g i o n em erged a s th e m o st e f f e c t i v e v a r i a b l e i n a c c o u n tin g f o r th e v a r i a t i o n s i n th e r e l i g i o u s r i g h t i s t v o te (TABLE I I .5) .

P a s t e l e c t i o n l i t e r a t u r e i n g e n e r a l s u g g e s ts t h a t o c c u p a tio n a l econom ic and c u l t u r a l d i f f e r e n c e s b etw een d i f f e r e n t seg m en ts o f th e s o c i e t y , c o u p le d w ith th e e f f e c t s o f a h ig h d e g re e o f i n / o u t flo w o f r e f u g e e s , a g g r a v a te d th e s o c i a l and r e l i g i o u s c l e a v a g e s , th e r e b y e n c o u r a g in g th e r e f u g e e s and

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of the PSP which was significantly associated with the Communist vote was negatively associated with religious rightist vote.

COMPARISON OP PARTY VOTE IN INDUSTRIAL AND TRADITIONAL CITIES

Comparison of Congress Vote in Industrial and Traditional Cities

A comparison of Congress voting support in the industrial towns

and traditional cities makes the following differentials obvious. The voting support for the Congress was fairly high and evenly spread out in all kinds of industrial towns while it was significantly associated with some socio-economic variables in the case of traditional cities.

While industrial towns whose population solely comprised migrants extended good voting support to the Congress, in traditional cities the higher the proportion of migrants, the lower the proportion of the Congress vote.

So it is possible to speculate that migrants in industrial towns and traditional cities may have different voting attitudes towards the Congress. Wbat makes a migrant in an industrial town more likely to vote Congress and a migrant in a traditional city less likely to vote Congress perhaps depends on the pattern of migration and the characteristics of migrants rather than on migration itself.

It is surprising that the Congress which fared so well in new industrial towns (inhabited predominantly by industrial labourers) did not show any positive or negative association in its electoral performance with manufacturing traditional cities. It is possible to hypothesize that

industrial workers in traditional cities and industrial towns vote differently and it may also mean that the sources of Congress voting support are essentially different in industrial towns and traditional cities.

Unlike its voting support in industrial towns, the Congress vote in traditional cities was significantly positively related to the variables of literacy, and sales tax per capita. It is however a debatable question whether the Congress was securing its votes from the highly literate and

economically well off social sections or from economically weak and illiterate sections for some other reasons.

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The effect of the variable region on Congress voting in industrial towns was only marginal while the proportion of total variation in Congress vote accounted for by region was considerable in traditional cities. for example, even in the industrial towns of east India (where the voting support for Congress was poor) the percentage of votes secured by the Congress was far higher than that of any other party. In other words industrial towns were comparatively immune from regional political influences, while traditional cities were not.

One would think that the population in industrial towns is more mobile, territorially and socially, than the population in traditional cities. So one may speculate that people who are more mobile may extend higher support to the Congress than the people who are relatively stable.

Comparison of Communist Vote in Industrial and Traditional Cities

A comparison of the Communist vote in industrial towns and traditional cities makes the following differences and similarities obvious.

The sources of the Communist vote in traditional cities and industrial towns appear to be different, because while a large proportion of the variation in the Communist vote in traditional cities was ’explained’ by the indicators of social and economic development, such as higher purchasing power, even sex ratio and large number of radios per thousand population, in the case of industrial towns the trend was exactly the opposite.

In the case of industrial towns the region of east India accounted for a considerable proportion of the variation in the Communist vote while in the case of traditional cities the region of south India was responsible for that. Yet in both types of cities the performance of the communists was very poor in north and west India.

As might be expected of a party championing the cause of the industrial workers, the percentage of votes secured by the Communists in industrial towns

(23%) was almost twice as high as its vote in traditional cities (1 3%), and three times as high as its vote at the all India level {9%). Yet it is surprising that the Communist vote did not show any sign of positive or negative association with traditional manufacturing cities. So, it is

39

possible that workers in manufacturing industries in traditional cities are probably not as vulnerable to Communist propaganda as workers in the new industrial towns.

In both industrial towns and traditional cities the percentage of votes secured by the Communists was highly sensitive to the level of votes secured by the other leftist parties. For example, the lower the vote of other leftist parties the higher the Communist vote in all kinds of industrial towns.

Comparison of Religious Rightist Vote in Industrial and Traditional Cities

A comparison of the religious rightist voting support in the industrial

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