Transportation evacuation models

A long history has been recorded for the damage caused during disasters. In Pennsylvania in the USA, 1979, a nuclear incident hit along 3 miles, and important inadequacies issues were revealed in the disaster response system. Since then, many researches have been conducted on different disaster scales.

Moreover, within the transportation area, a number of researchers approached the evacuation strategies limitations and have improved evacuation models using either traditional traffic assignment or simulation approach [151].

Regarding the optimal scheduling difficulty which is dealt through Dixit and Radwan proposal, through simulation and optimization algorithms, a real time decision support system has come as evidence that its usefulness is an essential tool to develop evacuation operation efficiency [155].

For the large-scale vehicular network simulations, an analysis methodology approach has been suggested by Perumalla and Beckerman. This approach has been used to employ a solution to the decision makers, as well as tracking the refinement of simulation result quality. This methodology has been used in across multiple runs and in order to detect the timing of evacuation the methodology has been simplified to be used for the evacuation scenario [101] and [156].

General and specific simulation models have been developed over the last two decades, significant developments in computer have been produced including visualization have facilitated to create the computer based models; such as simulation models [157]. Pham et al. reviewed 11 current evacuation simulation models (were developed between 1980 and 2007), and these models consists methodologies used in current available large-scale simulation evacuation models and decision support systems, these models are summarised in Table ‎3.4 [158].

Table ‎3.4 A summary of the evacuation models reviewed [158]

Model Name

Year Usage Authors

NETVACI 1982 Network Emergency Evacuation model based on a simulator capable of estimating traffic pattern and evacuation time on

road network surrounding nuclear power plants Sheffi et al.

CLEAR 1983 Calculates Logical Evacuation and Response model is based on a microscopic simulator for evaluating network evacuation time during a nuclear emergency

McLean et al.

NESSY-IV 1983 Net Structure Analysing System IV model based on a macroscopic simulator is suitable for small area and works properly for earthquake emergencies

Hiramatsu

I-DYNEV 1980

Interactive Dynamic Network Evacuation model is used for emergency planning and evacuation in case of nuclear power

plant incidents Lieberman

MASSVAC 1985 Mass Evacuation model is a tool for the assessment and _{analysis of urban area evacuation plans}

Hobeika and Jamei; Hobeika

and Kim

TEVACS 1990

Transportation Evacuation System model is used for emergency management and evacuation is case of nuclear incident. It is based on an advanced version of the NETVACI simulator

Han

REMS 1991 Regional Evacuation Modelling System model is a decision support tool mainly used for traffic control and management in case of emergencies

Tufekci and Kisko

TEDSS 1994

Transportation Evacuation Decision Support System is based on MASSVAC model and used for traffic management and evaluation of evacuation time for nuclear power plants in Virginia

Hobeika

OREMS 1994 Oak Ridge Evacuation Modelling System is used for

emergency management in large scale evacuation process. Rathi and Solanki; Rathi

CEMPS 1996

Configurable Emergency Management and Planning System combines a discrete event simulation model and Geographic Informative System to support evacuation planning management

Pidd et al.

D4S2 2007

Dynamic Discrete Disaster Decision Simulation combine san ARENA simulation model with a GIS and SQLServer database to simulate evacuation process and resources deployment

This report produces a SPreadSHeet (SPSH). It involves different techniques/strategies that could be applied to improve and support the evacuation management system. Particularly, it provides significant and efficient emergency responses, and hence increasing the potential of different traffic network devices to guide the evacuees to safe destinations. The sheet demonstrates different scenarios and connecting to a simulation model; S-Paramics ITS System, to compare their performance.

4

METHODOLOGY AND MODELS

This chapter provides the theoretical background to the modelling and simulation methods that have been employed to model different disaster and evacuation scenarios, and demonstrating our proposed system. The chapter provides a broad introduction to the area of traffic modelling covering various modelling and simulation methodologies. A range of techniques have been used to model and evaluate different disaster and evacuation strategies scenarios including a tool based on OmniTRANS and S-Paramics softwares.

Chapter Three presents the applied theory of traffic flow modelling and simulation. It reveals the important theoretical models used to present the principles of the traffic network. To this end, the principal variables that have been considered for the traffic flow will be illustrated (which form the traffic flow theory). Then, the report gives the basic traffic formula and provides the primary relationship between these variables. Moreover, the models that have been developed have been reviewed which they suited for analysing the behaviour of the traffic flow, especially in such disaster scenarios. All these materials will be presented and described through the sections below. Consequently, we will define and present various algorithms and models that have been considered in order to justify an explanation for the implementation models.

Sections between ‎4.1 and ‎4.3 present a review of the basic traffic flow theory variables that have been provided by [159]. We define the fundamentals of the traffic flow, the relations and the formulas between them. Sections between ‎4.3 and ‎4.7 give a review of traffic simulation and summarize the advantages and disadvantages of major models. The rest of the chapter is devoted to the available data which have been offered by different resources. It summarizes the details of each city such as location maps, layouts, etc. The data have been used to provide the necessary input for using the micro-simulation and macro-simulation models, and to test the developed model.