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Variable-Rate Particle Filter

4.3 Existing smc Algorithms

4.3.1 Variable-Rate Particle Filter

In this section, we describe filtering for

pdp

s viasequential Monte Carlo

(

smc

) methods. All three algorithms presented in this section may be viewed as special cases of the generic

sir

algorithm from Section 2.3.1. Hence, we always use the same symbolsX1Wn,n,n,Pn andGn to refer

to the ‘states’, normalised and unnormalised extended target measures, proposal kernels and unnormalised incremental weights even though the particular form of these quantities may change between the next three subsections. The actual (marginal) target measure,Qn 2M.zEn/, and its

normalising constant,z

n, are defined as in Subsection 4.2.1.

The first particle filter for

pdp

s, termed variable-rate particle filter

(

vrpf

), was proposed by Godsill and Vermaak (2004). The

vrpf

can be viewed as an application of the generic

smc

algorithm to a slightly reparametrised model described in the following.

Let 0D t0 < t1; < t2 < : : : be a sequence of strictly increasing (non-

random) times, wheretp, forp > 1, represents the time of thepth

smc

step. Moreover, let.p;k; p;k/denote thekth jump time in the interval .tp 1; tpand its associated jump size. Letkp 0 be the total number of

XnWD.kn; n;1Wkn; n;1Wkn/, forn >1, takes values in (a subset of) EnWD 1 [ kD0 .fkg T.tn 1;tn;k Φ k /;

X1WD.k1; 1;1Wk1; 1;0Wk1/takes values in (a subset of) E1WD

1 [

kD0

.fkg T.0;t1;k ΦkC1/:

Let.n/ WDsupfm2Nn 1jkm>0gbe the index of the last interval

of the form.tp 1; tpbefore.tn 1; tnin which the

pdp

has had a jump,

with the convention that if.n/ D 1, then we set.n/;k.n/ D0D0

and.n/;k.n/ D0. The target distribution is then given by

n WD n=z n onE1WnWD

pnD1Ep, where n.dx1Wn/ WDS.tn; .n/;k.n//q 0.d0/g.y.0;tnj.0;tn/ Y p2 zDn 1T.tp 1;tp ;kp.p;1Wkp/ q.dp;1j.p/;k.p/; p;1; .p/;k.p// f.dp;1j.p/;k.p// kp Y jD2 q.dp;jjp;j 1; p;j; p;j 1/f.dp;jjp;j 1/:

Here,Dzn WD fp 2Nn jkp >0gis the collection of indices of intervals

of the form.tp 1; tpthat contain at least one jump. Fort 2.tn 1; tn, the

pdp

is then defined by

t WD

(

F.t; n;j; n;j/; ifkn >0 andt 2Œn;j; n;jC1/, F.t; .n/;k.n/; .n/;k.n//; otherwise,

with the convention thatn;knC1Dtn. The extended distribution

n then

4.3 Existing

smc

Algorithms At Stepn, the algorithm generates a particle Xn from the proposal

kernel

Pn.dxnjx1Wn 1/WDPn;1.dknjx1Wn 1/

Pn;2.dn;1Wkndn;1Wknjkn; x1Wn 1/:

In the above equation, the kernels on the right hand side are selected in such a way that the usual absolute-continuity conditions are satisfied. At Step 1, the kernelP1;2also samples a value for0.

The unnormalised incremental weight at Stepnis then given by the

following expressions. IfknD0, then with some abuse of the notation

for Radon–Nikodým derivatives,

Gn.x1Wn/D S.tn; .n/;k.n// S.t n 1; .n/;k.n// g .y .tn 1;tnj.n/;k.n/; .n/;k.n// Pn;1.knjx1Wn 1/ :

Ifkn1, then again with some abuse of notation, Gn.x1Wn/ D S .t n; n;kn/ S.t n 1; .n/;k.n// g.y.tn 1;n;1/j.n/;k.n/; .n/;k.n// P n.xnjx1Wn 1/ g.y.n;kn;tnjn;kn; n;kn/ q.n;1j.n/;k.n/; n;1; .n/;k.n//f .n;1j.n/;k.n// kn Y jD2 g.y.n;j 1;n;j/jn;j 1; n;j 1/ q.n;jjn;j 1; n;j; n;j 1/f.n;jjn;j 1/:

As shown in Whiteley et al. (2011), the

vrpf

can suffer from severe sample impoverishment. This is because at Stepn, jumps are only pro-

posed in the interval.tn 1; tnand only based on information available

jumps in.tn 1; tn, as they usually are in

pdp

s, then at later steps, this

information can only be incorporated by reweighting particle paths. This can increase the variance of the particle weights which in turn aggravates the sample-impoverishment problem outlined in Subsection 2.4.1.

The

smc

filter from Whiteley et al. (2011), outlined below, can reduce sample impoverishment because – even in its simplest form – it allows new jumps to be sampled anywhere after the most recent jump and also allows previously generated jumps to be adjusted.