• No results found

The various differences between GDE and economic welfare that could eventually be quantified in terms of money will now be described. Also, the efforts made in the literature to transform GDE into an

indicator of economic welfare, by including or excluding certain items, by using more consistent valuation, and by reclassifying certain groups, will be presented.

(1) The items and concepts relevant to economic welfare that could he

valued in terms of money.

First, a number of goods and services that do not yield a price on the market place are excluded from GDE. They range from home­ grown vegetables to housewives' services. Furthermore, the size of this barter and home-consumption economy varies among countries and is usually greater for poorer countries; in any event, its value can be estimated

(imputed) for each country. Second, the items entering GDE are not all valued consistently. While most goods and services are included at market prices, the public goods and services are usually included at

factor costs and therefore their impact may be underestimated. Third, as mentioned in Chapter I and in Section A above, economic welfare refers strictly to expenditures on private consumables. Hence, any expenditures

on intermediate goods and services included in GDE and all investment

expenditure represent a divergence between GDE and economic welfare. To

transform GDE into an indicator of welfare, these items should thus be

reclassified and eventually revalued.

Indeed, certain items treated as expenditures on final goods

and services in GDE are actually costs. For instance, the expenditures

on police or defence, included as a public service in GDE, are really

costs of maintaining peace. The same argument could apply to health

expenditure which can be interpreted as the cost of reaching high life

expectancy rates and low mortality rates. Finally, depreciation is

obviously a cost. Another group of items which should be included in a

measure of economic welfare as cost or as benefit and which are ignored

are the negative or positive externalities. The deterioration of the level

of living due to industralisation is not properly taken into account by

GDE. Moreover, when such concerns are included in GDE, it is usually

done incorrectly; for instance, if the task of cleaning up pollution is

left to the government, it is reckoned as a final expenditure, whereas

it should be treated as a cost.

Furthermore, as noted in Chapter I, investment goods can be

included in a measure of economic welfare only in the form of the dis­

counted value of the flow of goods and services they will produce during

their life-time. This is obviously a major discrepancy between economic

welfare and GDE, which includes gross investment. Similarly, a number of

items included in GDE as final consumption expenditures should be reclass­

ified as investments, and treated likewise. First, consumer durables

should really be considered as investments because their life span is

greater than a year (or unit of accounting). Second, education and health

expenditures are often considered as investment in human capital; however,

(2) Methods valuing and integrating these items or concepts into a

monetary aggregate.

The most famous study valuing and integrating various items

and concepts of economic welfare into a monetary aggregate is the one

undertaken for the USA by Nordhaus and Tobin (1972). The main line of

argument is as follows: If growth is measured in terms of an increase in

GNP only, its harmful effects may not be revealed. In fact, welfare might

even be deteriorating without our awareness. Hence the concept of GNP

should be amended in order to take into account various quantifiable

factors that affect the general level of welfare. A similar point of view

has been expressed by A.K. Sen (1973). We will now survey these two

pioneering studies.

Sen's approach is to supplement the traditional national income

measures with various partial indicators. Aware of the intricacies of

the index number problem, he admits that the new indicators cannot be

adequate measures of social welfare. However, within a simplifying frame­

work, he shows how some important modifications of the national income

weighting scheme could produce important improvements by stressing under­

rated considerations or by downplaying overrated ones. He focuses on

five main considerations and proposes specific ways to deal with them.

The five topics covered are: military and policing expenditures, environ­

ment and exhaustible resources, saving valuation, life expectation, and

inequality and income distribution. However, Sen devotes almost his

entire attention to expositing the methods he develops to modify the

usual national income measures to take account of these five factors.

The only application presented is an attempt to take into account life

expectancy concerns for 27 countries.1

He actually weights "the GNP per head by the expectation of life compared with a standard longevity assumption."

Nordhaus and Tobin, on the other hand, although they do not include the

last two concerns in their study, carry out much more detailed empirical

development limited however to one country, the USA. They aim at trans­

forming GNP into a more welfare-oriented measure, the MEW (Measure of

Economic Welfare), by correcting certain valuations, including certain

new items and reclassifying certain groups. Then, the effects of economic

growth on the depletion of the natural resources and the specific case

of economic growth with zero population growth are also surveyed.

The authors' initial task was to reclassify GNP final expend­

itures and this gave rise to a number of difficult and controversial

issues. The first problem was to group government purchases into inter­

mediate and final items. Furthermore, a number of other controversial

decisions had to be made; e.g. they chose to treat consumer durables

as capital investment; similarly education and health expenditure, both

public and private were reclassified as capital investment. As their

approach is growth-oriented, they took into account as costs the growth

requirements needed to sustain the same per capita consumption assuming

a certain rate of technological progress. Finally, they reclassified a

number of instrumental outlays that fulfil intermediate, rather than

final, consumption needs. They excluded defence expenditure and police

outlays as being "regrettable outlays" and not adding to welfare.

Their second task was to impute values to a number of final

goods and services not included in GNP. In the same manner as rent is

imputed on owner-occupied homes, they allowed rent imputation for consumer

durables (now included in capital goods) and for other public investments.

Leisure and non-market activities,mainly housewives' services, were also

taken into account in the new measure.

Finally, they undertook to impute some values to various nega­

tive externalities in order to substract them from this measure. As many

used the differential between urban and rural earnings to evaluate the

disamenities of urbanisation.

This study, the first of its kind, is extremely valuable for

several reasons. It develops a method which permits one to appreciate

the real effect of growth on the public and not only on the productive

capacity of a country; it also relates growth to the stock of natural

resources and to population increase. However, the greatest contribution

of this study is to develop actual techniques to quantify a number of

concepts and items linked to the general welfare and otherwise ignored

by the traditional national accounting methods. These techniques might

be crude or one may not agree on some specific assumptions, as a certain

amount of personal judgment has to enter into each imputation. However,

these criticisms do not deny the great value of the study as many re­

finements can readily be applied to it.

The only additional remarks we will make are the following.

It was stated at the beginning of this chapter that income and welfare

could depart from each other on two levels; on the theoretical level of

valuation and on the level of the inclusion of the goods and services.

Evidently Nordhaus and Tobin apply themselves to solving the second set

of problems only and they do not choose to include any distributional

concerns.

Nordhaus and Tobin performed their welfare corrections for the

US, and thereby inspired other economists to develop and apply similar

techniques to different countries; see e.g. a study by the Economic

Council of Japan (1973) and a study by Gillin (1974) for Australia.

The concept of MEW, so far applied only to individual countries,

can eventually be extended for purposes of making international compari­

sons. To do so, MEW would have to be strictly defined by an international

agency and then each country would have to adjust its GNP into a MEW

an undertaking, although time consuming, is not impossible, But as MEW

is a monetary measure, if we want to transform it into an internationally

comparable indicator, all the problems linked with exchange rates or

purchasing power parity will still be present. However, in Part II we

will show that some of the difficulties introduced by exchange rate con­

versions could be avoided by a non-monetary approach and of course, as

many authors do, we can always ignore the worst theoretical difficulties

by assuming the existence of a social welfare function. In Part III of

this thesis we will thus try to integrate some of the Nordhaus and Tobin ideas into a non-monetary approach in order to perform international wel­

fare comparisons. Moreover, we will be able to integrate additional

concerns that are quantifiable in a non-monetary manner only.

To summarise, this section has dealt with the limited concept

of economic welfare implying the possibility of valuing everything in

terms of money. However, many authors have adopted a much wider and

general definition of welfare and have criticised national accounts for

not embodying these concepts. We will now exposit these criticisms and

in the next chapter describe the attempts made by various authors to

measure a wider interpretation of welfare that we have called socio­

economic .

II. GDE versus socio-economic welfare

A number of concepts which are deemed quite important in a

rather popular view of welfare fall in the classification of socio­

economic concerns. They can sometimes be translated into monetary values,

but such transformations are usually cumbersome, indirect, and hence

often inexact. These socio-economic concepts are usually quantifiable

more directly in a demographic form and such evaluation is thus much

more reliable, A large body of welfare concerns is thus available

health, education, labour conditions etc. Other welfare concerns are

quantifiable in number of units and it would be very difficult to assign

a price for such units. For instance, some might be of the opinion that

the average daily intake of calories and proteins is a better welfare

indicator for nutrition than the average expenditure on food; as there

is no market price for calories, they would have to use these indicators

in their physical or non-monetary form.

In fact, many authors believe that, for most of the socio­

economic indicators, the non-monetary or physical form is much superior

to the monetary form. A large body of literature concerned with the task

of identifying and aggregating such non-monetary indicators has thus

emerged. The first section of the next chapter will be devoted to the

presentation and to the discussion of this non-monetary literature.

Ill, GDE versus qualitative welfare

Finally, there are a number of sociological and political con­

cerns like racism, individual freedom, etc. which do not lend themselves

readily to quantification. Attempts to give a score to the degree of

intensity of such concerns are most subjective. Moreover, the philosoph­

ical aspects of welfare like happiness, pleasure, religious satisfaction,

etc. can only be appraised in a qualitative manner. In our study, we will

thus avoid including any of these non-quantifiable aspects of welfare

and we will restrict ourselves to a socio-economic and quantifiable (in

a monetary or in a non-monetary way) definition of welfare. In the second

section of the next chapter, we will thus present the non-monetary and

quantifiable socio-economic indicators along with the purely economic

indicators themselves in a physical or non-monetary form.

In conclusion, if we ignore the theoretical dilemma described

in the first section of this chapter, or if we circumvent them by assuming

between some existing national accounting aggregate that we will inter­

pret as Gross Domestic Expenditure and the narrowest concept of welfare

that we will call economic welfare can not only be isolated, but they can

also be valued in monetary terms. Thus it is possible to transform

empirically a national income aggregate into a measure of economic wel­