Adapting to a changing environment: confronting the consequences of climate change

(1)

ADAPTI NG

TO

A

CHANGrNG

ENVIRONMENT

CONFRONTING THE CONSEQUENC·ES

OF CLI MATE CHANGE

•

(2)

(3)

(4)

Adapting to a Changing

Environment

CONFRONTING

THE

CONSEQUENCES

OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Tim R

.

McClanahan

and

Joshua

E

.

Cinner

OXFORD

(5)

OXFORD

VNIVBII.SITY PllESS

Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University's objective of excellence

in research, scholarship, and education.

Oxford New York

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With

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in

Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi

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Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam

Copyright

0

2012

by Oxford

University Press,

Inc

.

Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016

www.oup.com

Oxford is a registered trademark ofO:dord University Press

stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

McClanahan, T. R.

Adapting to

a

changing environment: confronting the consequences of climate change I Tim R. McClanahan and Joshua E. Cinner.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index_ ISBN 978-0-19-975448-9 (hardcover: alk. paper)

1. Climatic changes. 2. Global environmental change. !. Cinner, Joshua E., 1<)72- II. Title.

QC<)0).M39; 20ll 304.2's-dc21 "2Oll007320

1357<)8642

(6)

Fishes and Flsherles

57

6. Vulnerability of Coastal Communities 67

7.

Coastal

Communities

'

Respon

ses

to

Disturbanc

e

84

8.

Linking

Social

,

Ecological, and

Environmental

Systems 100

9.

Building

Adaptive Capacity 115

10

.

Managing Ecosystems

for

Change 134

11

.

Confronting the Consequences

of

Climate Change

150

Bibliog

r

aphy 154

Index 181

(7)

(8)

PREFACE

The

c

h

a

n

g

ing

climate

ma

y

fundamentally

a

lt

e

r

the land and

sea

as we know

it.

For those who depend on

th

e

b

ea

u

ty and bou

nty

of

the

Ear

t

h's natural

r

eso

ur

ces

for their

livelihood

s-es

p

ec

i

ally

the

wo

rld

's

poor

- t

he

se

changes

could spe

ll di

saste

r.

The

problem

s

climate

c

h

ange

poses are

com

plex, a

s

are

th

e

ways in which

s

ocietie

s cope

wit

h

a

n

d adapt

to

change. Understanding

and

addressing

the

se

problems requires

brid

ging

diverse

fields

w

ithin

the

geophysical. ecological,

a

n

d

socia

l

sciences.

An

eco

l

ogist

and a social

scientist, we

h

ave spen

t the

last decade

working

together to integrate

t

he

se fields.

We approach the book from the

perspec-tive that

social and ecological sys

t

e

m

s a

re inti

mate

ly linked.

Social p

ro

cesses,

which

ca

n

include

cu

ltural

,

politi

cal, and eco

nomi

c c

haract

er

i

stics

of

society,

influence

the

ways that people

u

se and

manage natu

r

al re

so

ur

ces

. Lik

ew

i

se,

ecologica

l

co

n

ditions and

p

r

ocesses

ca

n

influ

ence

t

h

e societies'

well

-

being.

Usi

n

g

th

i

s

interdisciplinary approac

h

, this book

sy

n

thesizes, i

n

si

m

-pl

e

t

er

m

s,

the

rapidl

y e

mergin

g

fields

of

climate change

sc

i

e

n

ce a

n

d

human

adaptatio

n

an

d

develo

p

s

a practical

framewor

k

for much-needed

po

li

cy an

d

adaptive responses.

The framework addresses

the

differentia

l

responses of

the

env

ir

onme

nt,

eco

l

ogy,

and people

in affec

t

ed areas,

and

i

dentifies the

policy

action

priorities based on

thi

s

heterogeneit

y.

We

hope that

th

i

s

type

o

f

i

n

te-grated analys

i

s

and

p

roblem

so

lvin

g

will

l

ead

to

policy actions

t

hat

p

romote

appropriate and

l

asti

n

g

adaptati

ons.

As a foca

l

ens

for these

i

nt

egrated

climate

c

hange issue

s,

w

e exp

lore

co

ral

reefs

and

the coastal

soci

etie

s

that depend

on

them

throu

g

hout

t

h

e easter

n

coastline of Afr

ica

and

the island

s

of the

weste

rn

Indian

O

cea

n

.

This

i

s whe

r

e

m

any of

the

Ear

th

's

most impoverished people l

i

ve.

Here

,

both

ecosyste

m

s

and peop

l

es'

li

ve

li

hoods

are

ext

r

emely se

n

s

iti

ve

to climate disturbances.

Monsoonal rains, which are

h

eavily

i

nfl

u

e

n

ced

by

cli

mat

ic

patterns, provide

nearly

all of the ra

i

nfall for t

h

e

region

's

ag

ri

cu

lt

ure

.

Likewise,

t

h

e

i

sla

nd

s

and

coasts are

frin

ge

d

by

coral

re

efs, w

h

ic

h

provide livelihoods for millions

of

fishers and

th

e

ir

dependants

i

n th

e

region, but

are

one of the most

climate

-sensit

i

ve ecosystems

.

Considerable

cli

m

ate

impacts

h

av

e

already

occu

r

red

t

o

the

r

egions cor

al re

efs-

a

n

d

even more

severe

ones a

r

e expected. Th

i

s

r

eg

i

on,

like

o

th

ers

i

n

p

oo

r

t

ropical

co

u

nt

ri

es,

ha

s

neither

co

ntributed

much to

ri

sing

gree

nhou

se gas em

i

ss

ion

s

,

nor is

it

likely to

co

n

tribute great

l

y

t

o

the

effo

rt

s

(9)

'1111

Adapting to

a Changing

Environment

to adapt, but these efforts will face considerable

c

hallenges

from persistent

poverty,

implementing

decisions

,

corruption, and other prevalent

socioeco-nomic

con

ditions.

The

challe

n

ges of undertaking climate science,

making

the

findings

accessible, and catalyzing action a

r

e cons

i

derable, but

this region

is w

h

ere

these efforts and responses are

mo

st

needed

.

Harsh

realities

will need to

be

confronted with decisions that

in

crease

the

c

han

ces

for

successful

adaptation.

Although our book focuses on a specific geographic

region

and ecosystem,

the

conceptua

l

f

r

amework we develop is applicable to

most regions

an

d cli

-mate change problems. Those interested

i

n

how

climate c

h

ange may

i

nfluence

(10)

ACK

NOWLEDGMENTS

We thank the Western Indian Ocean Mari

n

e Scie

n

ce Association (WIOMSA)

through support from the Swedish International

Developm

ent

Corporation

Agency (SIDA), and the John D. and

Catherine

T.

MacArthur Foundation for

their support of

this book.

WIOMSA's vis

i

on of

interdisciplinary

research toward

practical problem solving has

inspired

much of

our

most satisfying research, and

this book represents an effort to con

t

extualize, syn

th

esize, and

build

on these

ideas. We also

thank

a

large

number of

colleag

u

es

who have helped

us

during

our research and preparation of th

i

s

book

,

includi

n

g helpful reviews and

com-ments.

These

include

Ca

roline

Abunge, Eddie A

lli

son, Mebrahtu Ateweberhan,

Andrew Baird, Andrew C.

Baker,

Duan Biggs, Lionel

Bigot

, Tom B

r

ewer, Kat

ri

na

Brown,

Henrich

Bruggeman,

Pascale

Chabanet,

Dee Cinner, Susan Clark, Tim

Daw, David Feary, Chris Funk, Rene Galzin, Kajsa Garpe, Nick Graham, Mirielle

Guill

i

ame,

Ch

ri

stina

Hicks

,

Cindy

Huchery

,

Simon

Jennin

gs,

Albogast

T.

Kamukuru, Yves Letourneur, U. Lindhal, Joseph Maina, Nadine Marshall, Caleb

McClennen,

Nyawira

Muthiga, Mohammed Sulieman. Ruby Moothien

PilIa

y,

Chris Muhando, Marcus Ohman, Nick Polu

n

in, Car

l

os

Ruiz

Sebastian, Charles

Sheppard, Mark Spalding, Selina Stead, Ras

h

id

Sumaila,

Saleh Yahya, Andrew

Wamuko

t

o, Shau

n

Wilson,

and

J

ens Zinke.

(11)

(12)

LIST

OF ABBREV

I

AT

I

ONS

AHP

BMU

SP

CV

EEZ

ENSO

FAO

GOP

GELOSE

H

OI

100

IPCC

lTCZ

LMMA

MP

A

MMSY

NGO

NOAA

OECD

PAR

PD~

PPP

SlDA

SST

UNCLOS

UV

W

IO

WIOMSA

WWF

Analytic Hierarchy Process

beach management

u

ni

t

s

befo

r

e th

e p

r

esent

coefficient

of va

ri

at

i

on

exclusive

econom

i

c zone

EI

Nino southern oscillation

Food and Agriculture Organization

gr

oss domestic pr

oduct

Gest

ion Loca

l

e Securisee

human gevelopme

n

t index

In

dian Ocean dipole

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

i

nte

r

-

tropica

l

co

n

vergence zone

Locally Managed Marine Areas network

mari

n

e protected ar

ea

multi

-species maximum

sustainable y

i

eld

n

ongovernmen

t

al o

r

gan

i

zat

i

on

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric

Administration

Organ

izatio

n for Economic Co-operation and Development

p

hotosynthetica

ll

y active

radiation

Pacific decadal oscillatio

n

purchasing power parity

Swedish International

Development Corporation Agency

sea-surface temperature

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

ultravio

let

western Indian Ocean

Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association

World Wildlife F

und

Adapting to a changing environment: confronting the consequences of climate change

ADAPTI NG

offices

Copyright

0

CONTENTS

Fishes and Flsherles

climate

climate

and a social

haract

climate change

heterogeneit

the coastal

hoods

provide livelihoods for millions

neither

socioeco-nomic

confronted with decisions that

ange may

WIOMSA's vis

who have helped

Brown,

McClennen,

ens Zinke.

coefficient

Locally Managed Marine Areas network

Swedish International