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Dr John Paull

Geography & Spatial Sciences

University of Tasmania

j.paull@utas.edu.au

Tasmanian Organic

s

Network

18 April 2018

Image : J Paull, 2016

Tasmania's Organic Spring:

The 99.8% Opportunity

(2)

Context - World

Context - Australia

China - Tasmania

2 or 3 success stories - global

Map of Tas organics

Free certification?

Organics

(3)

Organic is important

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Netherlands

UK

Canada

Japan

Australia

Belgium

Germany

USA

France

Argentina

Spain

South Korea

Italy

Mexico

Brazil

Russia

China

58%

52%

49%

46%

42%

41%

36%

35%

34%

31%

29%

29%

28%

27%

26%

24%

22%

Organic

GfK, 2017

Food shoppers want organic

(4)

GM-free is important

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Netherlands

UK

Belgium

Australia

Japan

Canada

USA

Argentina

Germany

South Korea

Brazil

France

Russia

Spain

Italy

Mexico

China

60%

49%

49%

45%

45%

45%

45%

43%

43%

41%

37%

37%

36%

33%

32%

31%

28%

GMO-free

GfK, 2017

Food shoppers don’t want GMOs

(5)

“it is generally unsafe to eat

foods grown with pesticides”*

69%

*Pew Research Center, 2015, p.5, US adults N=2002; US scientists 31%, N=3748; Lamberts (2017): Aus adults N=1203

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

US adults Aus adults US scientists

31%

62%

69%

(6)

Source: Pan UK (2017)

(7)

Organic Agriculture

excludes

synthetic fertilisers

synthetic pesticides

GMOs

engineered nanoparticles

irradiation

x5

(8)

Consumers buy

Organic

because

better for family

better for me

better for environment

better for animals

x4

(9)

Q:

The consumer is King?

Farmer is King?

(10)

Hectar

es

0

15,000,000

30,000,000

45,000,000

60,000,000

02.2000

08.2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

World Organic Agriculture

+12% pa

(11)

The World of Organic Agriculture (hectares)

Density equalising map

Paull & Hennig, 2016

(12)

GMOs (ha)

Rest of World

99.5%

Australia

0.5%

Organics (ha)

Rest of World

53%

Australia

47%

Australia is a Pygmy in the GM World

&

a Giant in the Organics World

Organics data: Willer & Lernoud, 2018

(13)

Tasmania

4003 hectares - certified organic

79 organic producers

Aglaw & Mobium, 2017

(14)

1924: Agriculture Course at Koberwitz (Poland)

Rudolf Steiner (1865-1925)

(15)

Ernesto Genoni, 1928, Experimental Circle

1928: Australia’s first organic farmer

Ernesto Genoni (1885-1974)

(16)

Ileen Macpherson (1898-1984)

1934: Australia’s first woman organic farmer

(17)

Lord Northbourne, 1940, “Organic farming”

1940: coins the term “organic farming” (UK)

(18)

1946: Tasmania’s first Organic

Farm

ing advocacy society

(The Living Soil Association of Tasmania)

(19)

Organic Gardening &

Farming Society of

Tasmania (1972-2009)

published

a national journal

(20)

data: Willer & Lernoud, 2018

Rest

37%

Spain

3%

USA

4%

China

4%

Argentina

5%

Australia

47%

Organic (ha) - Big 5

World total = 57.8 m ha

(21)

data: AgLAw & Mobium 2017

TAS

<0.01%

VIC

2%

NT

5%

NSW

11%

WA

14%

QLD

30%

SA

38%

Organic (ha) - Australia

Australia total = 27.1 m ha

Tasmania = 4,003 ha

TAS <0.01%

(22)

data: AgLAw & Mobium 2017

TAS

4%

VIC

21%

NT

1%

NSW

29%

WA

9%

QLD

24%

SA

13%

Organic (producers) - Australia

Australia total = 2075 producers

Tasmania = 79 producers

(23)

data: Willer & Lernoud, 2017

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Liechenstein

Austria

Sweden

Estonia

Switzerland

Latvia

Falklands

Australia

Germany

Poland

W

orld

USA

Serbia

China

Russia

T

asmania

Bosnia & Hertzegovina

0.03%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.6%

1.1%

3.8%

6.5%

7.1%

12.5%

12.8%

13.1%

16.5%

16.9%

20.3%

30.2%

Organic (ha) - % of Ag land

(24)

image: newstarget.com

, 2016

Vision:

Russia to supply the world

with organic food

(25)

China

(26)

Chin

a

(27)

China

(28)

China

(29)

China

(30)

China:

Alternative certifications

China

(31)

Organic mentions=nil

(32)

Organic mentions = nil

(33)

“Bhutan to be the world’s first 100% organic country”

Prime Minister

3 of 20 states already declared organic

“Gross National Happiness is more important than

Gross National Product”

Constitution 2008

c

Vision

(34)

100% Organic: Sikkim

Prime Minister Mohendra Modi & Chief minister Pawan Chamling January 2016

intoday.in

74,190 certified organic hectares

64,000 farmers

(35)

11 me-too Indian states …

… Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra,

Meghalaya, Mizoram, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh &

Uttarakhand

image: nmhs.org.in

(36)

data: FAO, 2017

Rest of World

99%

Dominican Republic

1%

Global Bananas

(37)

data: FAO, 2017

Rest of World

45%

Dominican Republic

55%

Global Organic Bananas

(38)

Hectar

es

0

75,000

150,000

225,000

300,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

World Organic Forestry

data: FIBL & IFOAM reports 2000-2018

(Tasmania = nil)

(39)

Hectar

es

0

125,000

250,000

375,000

500,000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

World Organic Aquaculture

data: FIBL & IFOAM reports 2000-2018

(Tasmania = nil)

(40)

Hectar

es

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

World Organic Wildculture

data: FIBL & IFOAM reports 2000-2018

(Tasmania = nil)

(41)

Hectar

es

0

25,000,000

50,000,000

75,000,000

100,000,000

02.2000

08.2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

World Total Certified Organic Land

90,600,111 ha

data: FIBL & IFOAM reports 2000-2018

+Organic Aquaculture (2009)

+Organic Wildculture (2006)

+Organic Forestry (2010)

(Tasmania = 4003 ha)

0.004%

(42)

DPIPWE, 2016

Halpin, 2004

A motivation for an Organic Tasmania …

Tasmania Farm Gate: $2.02 billion

+

Price premium for organic 0% - 200%

=

???????

(43)

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Bronwyn Tilyard, DPIPWE, 2018

Organic Farms

(44)

Q: Are we on the

threshold of an

Organic Tasmania?

(45)

Suggestion:

“$230K over 4 years”

* Mapping Data (TON)

* Free Certification

Liberal Party Tas, 2018

(46)

Thank you

Questions

j.paull@utas.edu.au

(47)

Tasmania's Organic Spring:

The 99.8% Opportunity

John Paull

Geography & Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania

Tasmania has experienced seventy years of organics advocacy (from 1946). Yet

Tasmania has just 0.2% of its agricultural land certified organic. Converting the

state to organic could take 35,000 years at the current rate - and who has that

kind of time? In contrast, Australia has 7.1% of its agricultural land as certified

organic. Australia has more organic land than any other country. Tasmania has

4003 certified organic agriculture hectares and 79 certified organic operators

(compared to the Australian total of 27.1 million organic agriculture hectares and

2075 certified organic operators). This suggests that there is a massive

opportunity - the 99.8% opportunity - for Tasmania to embrace the ethics,

practices, and economic benefits of organic production. With the impending

certification of a number of organic dairy properties in Tasmania, is the state on

the cusp of an Organic Spring? OMG (Organic Milk Group) has just achieved

certification of its first dairy farm and has just started supplying Woolworths

supermarkets with organic milk. Moon Lake has three dairy farms at or near

conversion to organic and plans direct organic milk exports, Hobart to China. A

new map of organic farms in Tasmania is presented.

(48)

References

AgLaw Centre, & Mobium Group. (2017). Australian Organic Market Report 2017. Brisbane: Australian Organic Ltd. Dairy Australia. (2017). Dairy Situation and Outlook: June 2017. Melbourne: Dairy Australia Limited.

DPIPWE. (2016). Tasmania's Sustainable Agri-Food Plan 2016-2018. Hobart: Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE).

GfK. (2017). Decision Factors on What to Eat or Drink: Global GfK Survey (October 2017). London: GfK (Growth from Knowledge).

Lamberts, R. (2017). The Australian Beliefs and Attitudes Towards Science Survey. Canberra, Australia: Australian National University.

PANUK. (2017). Food for Thought: Pesticide Residues in the School Fruit and Vegetable Scheme (SFVS). Brighton, UK: Pesticide Action Network UK (PANUK).

Paull, J. (2009). The Living Soil Association: Pioneering organic farming and innovating social inclusion. Journal of Organic Systems, 4(1), 15-33.

Paull, J. (2014). Lord Northbourne, the man who invented organic farming, a biography. Journal of Organic Systems, 9(1), 31-53.

Paull, J. (2014). Ernesto Genoni: Australia's pioneer of biodynamic agriculture. Journal of Organics, 1(1), 57-81.

Paull, J. (2017). Four new strategies to grow the organic agriculture sector. Agrofor International Journal, 2(3), 61-70.

Paull, J. (2017). Ileen Macpherson: Life and tragedy of a pioneer of biodynamic farming at Demeter Farm and a benefactor of Anthroposophy in Australia. Journal of Organics, 4(1), 29-56.

Paull, J., & Hennig, B. (2016). Atlas of Organics: Four maps of the world of organic agriculture. Journal of Organics, 3(1), 25-32.

Pew Research Center. (2015). Public and Scientists' Views on Science and Society. Washington: Pew Research Center. Royal Government of Bhutan. (2008). The Constitution of the Kingdom of Bhutan. Thimphu: Royal Government of Bhutan. RT. (2017). Putin vows to make Russia major supplier of organic food to Asia-Pacific Region. 11 November. Moscow:

rt.com.

Willer, H., & Lernoud, J. (Eds.). (2018). The World of Organic Agriculture: Statistics and Emerging Trends 2018: Frick, Switzerland: Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL) & Bonn: IFOAM-Organics International.

References

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