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A bounded model of time variation in trend inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips curve

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Figure

Figure 1: Joint predictive density of inflation and unemployment for 2013Q2,2013Q3 and 2013Q4
Figure 2: Marginal, joint and conditional probabilitiesinvolving inflation and unemployment rates
Table 1: Relative RMSFEs (against VAR(2)) for forecasting inflation andunemployment; 1975-2013.
Table 2: Sum of log predictive likelihoods (against VAR(2)) for forecastinginflation and unemployment individually, as well as jointly; 1975-2013.
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