1996 Annual energy review. Energy in Europe, special issue September 1996

(1)

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(3)

DIRECTORATE • GENERAL

@;

FOR ENERGY

(

DG XVII)

•••

•

• _•

_•

_*

*

ENERGY IN EUROPE

1996 - ANNUAL

ENERGY REVIEVV

SPECIAL ISSUE

-

SEPTEMBER

1996

(4)

PART I

PART II

PART Ill

ln.\ro&uclion , , •• , , •.• , .. , , ,

Exeeul.ive Sun·u•nofy , •• , , •• , , •.•.••. , • • • ••

Sot..~tces ond Me!hod~

lHE WO~LO .

.

. .

.

~

.

WESl<llN EUROPE

ftlROPEAN UNION Au,.lfio

aelgi~~m

.

~

...

~

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.

..

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.

...

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,

7

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•• 17

29

30 • . 6.2

. . 63 Dcnfflatl , , , , , , , , , , , •• ,, •• , . . . .6A

H11klnd • • . • • • . • • • . • • • • • • • . • . . . •••..••.•••.••. 65

Fron<::c , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,66

Gefm.ony •••••••••••••••.•.•.•.•••. -.. •• ••••••••• ..67

GreeCE '

...

..

...

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II~IMd . . . 69

...

,

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,,

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,,

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_'.'_{' ' ..}₇₀ ... ' .. 71 llciy

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Portvool

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Spain . . . ----·-~··••· ·~•··.-•··~···-···· •• . ,, ... 7.&

Swed.en '

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.75

United Kingdom .•••.•••..•... , ... ....•••••... 76

EFTA

Iceland

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CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPe

CENTRAL AI'JD fASlfRN EUROPE

' "

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Fottner Cze<:bo:.lovt:klo •••.•...• ... , ... , ... , .. 96

Cz

e

ch

Repvblk ond·Siovokio , • , , , , , , • , . • , , , 97

Hungmy Potond

···-· .-.' •..•• ·~ •• ·~ ••.•• -- •.. ·-· ••.. 98

...

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• ' . ' .. 99 Romania •• , , •• , , .. , ... , •...•..•. .•• _ ••• .. .... ,, .. ,, .. , .• 100

fo.-rne.r YUQO$:Iov1o ... , , • , , •• , , •• , , • • • • •

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103

SA!JlC COUNlRlES

E.~nio, lotvio o.nd lilhoonio ,

I

996

• Anr;uo

l E

n

e

r

g

y

Rev;ew

(5)

PART IV

PARTV

PA.IT VI

PART VII

PART VIII

PART IX

PAll X

PART XI

PART XII

CIS

NAFTA

"

Cor~da Mexico Unt-.d S.Oto~

"

.

'

..

....

..

.

-

.

'

.

109 .

.

...

.

.. 119

' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

.

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---·-· .... 128

129

136

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...

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AFRK:A

NO!IIH Af~ICA

'-'9o< ..

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Lbya Motoc;w

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OT>lEl< AFRICA

MIDDlE EA51

···~···-.

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ol

AUa ~l'l.«:lvdtf'l9

· oeco

Paci11q

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5f!OOI-1£•M [N[RGY OUTlOOK FO!IlHE !UROOfAN ~NION

1 996 -

Annuc;~l En~rgy

R

eview

147

• 150 155

--

..

156

157

- •..•.. 158

'.

159

16()

. - 163

170 171

173

180

... 181

' ' 182 ••••. ' ... 18J

185

192

193 194

(6)

(7)

ABBR

E

VI

ATIONS,

D

E

F

INITI

O

NS AND U

N

I

TS

DG XVII

Energy Intensity

kgoo

MECU

NARA

O'ECD

OIAOE

SOEC

UN·'ECE

Cof1\1'ilul'lity of IMependonl S1ote1

Oirl;l~ralleoGcnerol ior fconomi<: Affairs of lhc F.vrorx:on Comme.uion

~vtio of

C1C

•o GOP

Europeon Union

(;v!f·Coopoeto6on Coundl

Gro.s& Oome~1k P~oduel

lntemo1ionol Energy Agency

Thoeuord Y'Volthotu

Mllteon ECU

Milli011 lOe

.No11fl Amenc¢n free Tr<:XIe Agrcemcml

Orgon•~cJIOtl l¢t Ec:oeK>t(llc Co-o,pcfofloo Md Oc~oproen1 le,;clt\dulQ Hu!lgc'IIY, Cueh Republie

and Polondl

Sulphur

Short-Term Enefgy Out\ook for !he Evropoon Vnir",n

Mellie ~<>nne, 01 1000 !dlogrcm$

TQt'lne ol oel O~lrY.;J!ent, 01 I

o7

kiloc-n!orJCo,, Ot ,A 1.86 GJ

laro Well hcur. or I 0 l2 Wolthour

V.'Ofld Sank,

(8)

(9)

I

NTRODUC

T

ION

FOREWORD BY MR

.

P. BENAV

I

DES

,

Direc/or·General

for

Energy

In

January

1996

the European Commission

published

ils

While Paper

on

energy policy

.

from the

wide-ranging

discussions

on the

Green

Paper of a

year

earlier the Commission

was able to distill four prioritie

s

for European

energy

policy

.

lnlegra~on

of

lhe

market

,

management of exlemal

dependen<y, bu

i

ld

i

ng susta

i

nable

developmenl, and creating

o

favourable

cl

i

mate

for energy technology and research

wer

e

identified '" ils lour

comerstones

.

In the pursv

i

J of

o

teo/

co-nsensus

O(ouncl

Jlu

~

stt

priotities

at

Uruon

level.

shored

anolys,~s

• '

s now on

essential

tool

in

the proces$ o

f

shaping

these corners/ones. The

oim

of the Annual

Energy

Rev

i

ew

is

to

support the

discuss

i

on

by

both providing the

hard

Facts about

the

past

and

uncover

i

ng

the

trends

which underlie the

near future

Afte

r

long

negol

1 al

l

ons, Europeon

electricity

marke

t

s

ore

now

on

the

p

.

ath

to

competilion

and freedom of

c

hoic&

,

Gas

markets are

lacing th

e

same

situation, at

a quicken;ng pace

thanks

to

the

historic agreemenJ

on

electricity.

T

he growing importance

of

gas again revealed

by

our

new

Review olso poin

ts fo

the need

for

monitoring the

markets.

Of

course

o

il

rema

ins

o vito!

energy source

,

at

!he present

stage of technology

esp<!)'iolly as regards

transport

,

and tl>e geopolit

ic

al

l

mpl

ic

oHons

of

o

i

l

supply

obviously demand

c

onstant

wotchlvlne$s

.

(10)

The Annual Energy Review has been changed considerably

,

in format and

con/en!, for

t

his edition

as

compared with its predecessor which

appeared

in

mid-

f

994 ,

Substantia/

dnd

ongoing changes

in

energy

policy

and

the

markets themselves h(Ne been Ioken

into account.

In

future

Reviews the

r

e

will

no

doubt continue to be further

shiFts in

Focus

,

and considerotio11 of

new

aspects

of

energy policy itself.

The

relative

Imparlance

of

issues

c

overed

to

date must

be

reassessed

. '

Creating consistent

energy

policy

in lhe

framework of the White Paper

sounds

like

o •lroightforword venture

.

Howeve

r,

it

is sometimes

soid

#lot only

change is con$1ont

,

and

tMs odoge

becomes a truism when

speaking

obout markets

.

In

!his sense llle primary

purpose of the Annual Energy Review remains

ils

original one of making

conven(e.ntly available and assessing

these

mainly shor/-lerm trends using a

dynamic and evolving approoch.

I

hope lhot

it

will prove relevant and useful not

only

to

readers

of Ener9Y

in Europe

but

Jo on even wider audience including

tho

se

involved

in

or

concerned by energy policy-making and analysis within their

various

responsibilities, bath within and beyond

!he European continent

,

(11)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The

review

is

presented here

in

twe

lv

e parts

according to

the most strategic and important

world regions.

The

first port

provides on overview of world energy by

region

.

Part //

looks at

Western

Europe and

ana

lyses in detail

th

e Evropeon

Unio

n,

i

ndud

ing summary

t

ables

on

ener9Y

prices,

ond

EFTA countrie

s

.

Pori Ill

analyses Central and EosJern Europe in

$Oin9

detail

by

counlry,

including

Bollics

countries.

Port

IV

provides

information on the Former USSR

In

this

port/her

e

is

on attempt

to

show details

for

each Republic of

the former

USSR,

to

the ex

t

en

t

of avai

la

bili

ty

of

sfotisli

col do

l

o.

The other ports look at

the other world

regions

but

in

less

detail.

Finally,

the Short-Term Ener9Y

OvtlooJc

for the

E

uropean Union is reviewed For

1996

and 1997

.

Some of

tl>e key

findings

ore

summ

ol'ised

in

th

e next pages.

19 96 Annvol Eno

r

gy Review

(12)

EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

WORL

D

GROWfH tN WORlD ENE~GY CONSUM."J''N SlOWSO

DOWN fi!OM 1.9%P.A. IN lHE SO'S TO 0.6% P.A. IN fH£

EARLY 90'S, SEFOR:E INCREASING SOMEWHAT IN 19.94

• The slowdown ol energy oonl-lm-.plion grvwth WO$ ~v$oC!d moinly by reWuc:IVring In !he CiS ond rbe C~ltfo! ond Eo'*"n Europoon covr.triq.s t:norgy t011$vmpiion in thi~;

regiO(I :.onk by 7.7% p.o. f1om 1990 10 1994. Tht d~e!ll'le

WO$ po{liculo,ty morked in )99d wilt! o }oU oi 9..1%-;

• Energy <:on•qmp~lon In

deco

wo' up by 1.4% p.'(J. between t990 ar.d 199A. Gro-.v!h W<IS lowe~! In !he

Evropeon Vni~ 10 3% p o I ond higll4n1 in OECD Pocifi~

12.6%1. In 199.4, OECD energy COtU>J!'I'lp!tou grew 1li-gh1!y foster reochu\9 1.8%;

• Growth In energy demond wo.s oor~tcnlrotccl moinly in tno

~eloping couf!Jrie$ ond mo-sl ~1obly r,, Asio. where

e;~ergy co~vmpnon increO$Etd by 4 8% p.o. $inc. 1990, This growth wo~ pothculorty s•gnifko1\l in 199..! ~5.2%1;

THE FUEl MIX IS CHANGING SUl Oil R!:MAINS

PREDCV,INANr

• Oil remo,M the p~dominor.l ellergy s.ovn:e ~ee!)t"9 irs .sho;$ of 3$% 4ince 1990)

• NQ!vtol SO$ i.\ gtowifl9 brQO~Iy in hnc wrtn overoU energy

CO(I!>U'mpj<OO. SrroR9 growth in 0£CO counlries ~e.g In

pow(lf goA~;totit~n) Is bo~nc.d ~y dim1ni$hing oncrgy de,mol'ld in eounlr!~ ir. lfOA.SU!or.;

• Solid fuel del)lOnd hc:a been .s10ble !-<1-.ce 1990, ofter

.slrong growl'h ,., lho prqvio111 two de<::odlt$;

• The carbon IJ~c C!"~'9Y sovrr~ \n~,~eleor c.nd tenewobll"..s) fored ~I in !he eofly 90's with coosvmprion bring nooriy 9% high.-..r '"" 1994 c:ompc~rod to 1990. R(lnewoble~

reoched o shore of oboor 10% 11'1 1994;

• Elec1r!diy gor.erohon ir<reo1ed fos&ei" lhon groS$ energy

c:an~v"'pbon refl~ng the gi"Owing .sh01e qf dedricity In final energy dtcrnond (~6% in l993 compored wilh I 2% in

l9$0)o

·Hydro ptodvc!ioo increo;ed fo!>lesl with MCJOr dewlop. m¢nl rn A~io ond l1Jttn Amorico;

• NudE!cr copodry u11lisotion conlu\ued ro lmptove: . Whi!o thq r:<~mlnbvlfon af lhmmol gfJn01<1lion increowd

'lowly. dlere wO$ o s!gntf;conl mo~ .owofd$ ga~otet uie oi not"'ol go$;

OECD ~EGlON PROOUCES MORE Of WORlD ENERGY

• lnlft~ earty 90'~, OECO ptoriu<:I!Ot\ g•ew 1,<1% p o, wbtlc::

n~ECO prodoct.on re.molnod t~nchonged;

• In dMt noo.OECD oroo thete. were subslanlfol corbock.$ of

pto<fuchoi\ In !he COunlrl\!~ in lroJUi1!0lt, whieh wete nimo~l

compen$oled

by

p1odoctlon tncreos.e$ in developing counlnt.t:;

• The OECO p(Odu<:hon golf'll wl!l:!' molnly rn olt, 90:> und nuclear, whae non·OECD c:ovf\tri.e& i11creo$ed ptedonunon~y

1<>1id fuel p.toduetion;

• The OPEC shote il\ oiJ produo:h-on was .41% In 199.4,

teGOV'e("ing horn ill ll'linimum of 29% m 1985. bVI h h .stal

b~low •b 1980 level of .1~%:

CECD ENERGY ilAOE WAS BROAfXY STABlE, WHitE THERE WERE MAJOR SHIFTS IN OTHER REGIONS

• OECD depe11de"'y on e!!ergy Jmporls incteo~ by 1% In ~994 ofler o '~lotf.+-o ~robilily boiwGen l990ond l993:

• lhc EllropQt~n llman, by for !he l~rgr,s! r.cl imparlr.r,

tediiCed Irs itnpOt"l!> in 1993 c11d 1994. OECO.Poc.fk, the ;ectmd lo1g(l~t fmpottor, rewl"li4id growing in 1994 17~

ohtt: o smoU dedu1e o~ NAFTA rmpo1b, lhltd lotg!!sl, g.-ew

ropidly $illce 1990:

• e~f)Qf"l$" f.om CIS. rr..;Q'o~«.. from lilolr 1991 low by rl.$ing ln 3.5% 1993 ond 7.5% •~"· 1994: howevel, CIS &Jif)OU.S ln

J99od weHl 20% bel1JW ~oir J>$Ok voluo in 1986;

• MKic.f.lc £o1t o.Kporb g~cy.-10% bQiwc;:en J990 o.nd 1994.;

ENERGY INlENSITY CONllNUES 10 OECUNE

• Energy n"<lens.ily (energy conwmption divided bt GOP)

<:OIII"H'Iued 16 de<:reosc by 1.2% p.o. ~ 1990 c~ 199.;

• While energy ,,,ens\ty is docreo;ing in the otCt> and

th.e devclopu"~g cou-zd1ic:._.. tl i~ using rn the CIS 01,1d Cenlrol oDd Eostero Eur09e. Thet-e. economk feUrl.ldvtii\IQ hos

re-.sulll!d' in !ndltstl"i(Jl prodvc:rion "tl.;n:-cning ln1tor t!tcm energy coMvmprlon,

(13)

EXECU

T

I

VE SUMMARY

FUR MIX CI<ANGES ~fSULll:D IN LOWeR C02 EMISSIONS PER UNIT OF ENERGY CONSUMPTlON

• Whil,e corbol'! fnleMily (C02 emi~S;iont. por unit of e_nergy

OOMuntpbonj li dee,e-osll)g bo1h In OECO ond lhe counlne.s

1n tronsiiM)n, <:orbon inten$iry i$ ri$i.ng rn !he res! of 1he "<odd;

• Corbon i(llen$ity in the ~lopi11g covnlri$$ j$· cit.ing OOe

to lh, ~hifl lo t:Ot'l)me-rclol et~erm-..soutce~. tno~!!y fos!.il ~~

WOR<DC02 !MISSIONS REMAINED AT THf 19'10 LEVEL

UNTIL 1993

• T!~e wo~ no 9fowth of C02 ~musiOn!. between 1990 o!'d \993. Economic grOW7h oi L4%.p.o. we:S<o.'npenso!ed

by dedlnlng <:!riCI9Y. ond ca1l>on imenuiy

ol

0.9:'4 p..a. and

0.6% p.o. respecti~Jy Tlt~re wete difrelenl reg!onol potil:rn1 in thQ t990'~;

EURO

P

EAN U

NI

O

N

SINCE 1990, ONLY WfAT"fR HAS CAUSED NOTABLE

CHANGES IN fNEl!GY CONSUMPTION

• Dl)t.pl~ rqc4n$ion (GOP !ell O.cl%1 ond wonT'! ~o!hor

gtou lnlond tol\wtnptlon -dt-etecued on..ly 0.2% In 19.93, rqd~~~:lo.g o 0 2% in«eose il'l ef'lergy fl>lens.ily;

• lhe 1994 recovc1y (GOf> grew 2.8%1 wo$ OOiol'lood by

ver-y worm wt!OJ~er I I ,3.% cba.-e alte EUi·12 ove•agl'!l or\d

energy co!"'s.t~mphen lncroo$ed only 0.5%. CofJe!1)ondlngly. eomgy Tnlcrul,.f IQ(iur;c:d 1.2%,

• 5.11\Ce 1935, ot/'11etgy coruumplion hrn grown 0.8%. p o.

while economic ocri'llity' ho~ ineteos.ed obovt2% p.o •.

• F,nol ene1gy demo~ inr.reos.ed s.IJghtly lo~r 1hon g:os.s.

Inland demand dvr.llg 1990 to 1994 The 9rowtfl (n fif'lo~ demond wos rooinly 1n !he !ronsporl !.ee!OI,

• Tron$porl vse rr.creosed 1.8% p.o. si:oce 19:90 ohef having gfown 4 5~ d\lrin9 Iii~ $C~o!id hoff of tho 80'$, In

199& !he ue.'\d lvrned ol\d deu~ot~d r~uced 2.2%:

• 1nduMrkll energy consulf'lplioo d~!treosed 2,5% p.o.

bt!rween l990 nr\d 1993 but r~O'··crOO In t994 12 2~

rhete were l'l".odesl eCOnOtllJC {lfOw!h and dtt!etieuction. ol

ent~rgy inlcn$~ in ll'thJslr)· till 1993 In t994, both

econcn11C g.ro .... th and Mergy rnten:.ily rmprov1d,

• Sbor,.lefm vOtimioo~ 11'1 li;.-rtiury-dOr'l!eslic ~101' c:M•!:IY

ccn~t.mphan arf') hc!h""'l?rllo orlg!no;e mo.nly from waothef

-C02 eiT'Ii.uioiU fel.sharply m Th! CIS

OM.!

Tn Central ond

Eo$Tern fvrope due to lfOf'l$itkJn ond 18$11tKf\.lring Q( e<:ol'lomie,., Emis:siotll dt:<:lu~ There by B 6% p.o_,

-In the d~·ecloping world, on The <:Ot!Kary, C02 en;i$;i0njo

~ve grQWn l.lrcngly 1eRcx::llog ec<mortliC 910wth ond

increo$if!g cotboo lntensiJY;

• C02'4tlf1i$$l01'1~ in

oe<;:o

9fCW ccmporol\vely ~ly

O•ey deelined In the Evropeon Un_!on doe to ~nergy i>1~siry imprO'IIerncr.tt. or.d cho"'9e$ in th~ !vel inix,

which ;~ polhcvlot'ty mo1ked

by

th~ JeWuclufll'l9 cl The

highly carbon 101enslve ex.GDR;

• With strong econon1ic growth Tn 199A,Ihe ir.di<:Qheln$ nrc

fo1 !l$ittg C02 em1utan" iri 1994 d!t).pi~ a oonsideroble d«line it\ enetgy int>eftsity;

H~r, enc•rgy demond gfev .. 0.7% j).o. on o<~«oge from

1990 To 1994 notwilhs&onding w~lhc:r being $imllor ir, 199~ 'llld 19.90:

FUEL SWITCH1NG CONTINUED

• NQIIJiolgc.s demtmd iner.o$otKI3 A% p.o borwoon 1990

ond 1994,

• 0,1 dernond 9~'-"IJI.ISI un~ l"' p.o. f1om 1990 JO 199.11_

Tro.ruportdcmcm&wtM rhG moln growth $6<!or,

• Solid fuel~ b~l mor\:el .horc• Qnd gtO» · c:;on$'vmption declined 5.6% p-.o. sitKa 1990;

• Electnc(ty 1w.1 con~nu('d JO graw mOte. roJ)'dly 1hcm luk'll

encrey demand/ <t5pc:~iolly in 199;-', lh., s.hore of elecfrldty

l.n l•ool OOtnMd Tncr~osed lo 19% lit 199.d. Th~re wt!fe

clv.ln_g<l.$ in rho production of ef.eciricity. too·

-Hyd•O and wind p1odv<:1i6r\ lncreosed;

-Nudeor gtGW 2 ;1"10 p.o. $ince 1990, bvl competed wt!h the so·~ 910wth 10Ae1 boll~ ()UI;

· In lherrnol geoel'o!lon go) u~ lf'ltr(:!Q!I:d und Sohd rue!l

nnd oil use dc!c:r~(l$e:d;

• Rent'Woblos gtew s'gnifi<:ttnTtv·OO:wcon 1990 ond t99d

l3'i',. p.o.~ In l99A, rhe $1;(1~ of h~•\1..--woble.slll 91C>n enetgy <:QCl~IJmpTion rcoctlod S.t..%;

(14)

EXEC

U

T

I

VE SUMMARY

DEPENDENCY Ot-t fXTERNAl ENERGY SU .. tiES

DE CUNEO

• Enetgy produdlon gre-W losrer 1hon gros-s. lnlo!\d

(onsvmption both 1n 1993. and 1994, Import depend~ncy

fall ;Significonttt ;n l99.d (46%). f!s peo~ volw i11 1992: wos SOl>:

• lhe: don1elik ptodu<:t:on of 01l, goJ₁nudem (md

renev10btes iiiCreosed;

• Oil pt"oduoion grow ~lfOngly l'l3%Pn 199-11, The dOI"'''oesljc pfodU<:tttJn of 10101 011 demand lt1Cff:O~~ f~om 22'% to 28%

<luring i992-l99.d;

.

o~"' prod.vcfion ol.no·urolg~ rnol63% of nohnol 90$ dE.<mcnd 111 1994. Ill 1992 the Jhore wo~ 62%,

• Solid fuel production, i!'xposed to resrrue1\lr1ng. ~nk obov!

12% in lx>ih 1993 (l,g 199.d, me-ding

56%

ol sol~ fll'tll$

demo11d In 1994 (66% In 1992),

• 8o!h nvdear of!d renewable fuel producllol'l lnctedwd,

ENERGY PRICES IN THE UNION WUf PARl'ICIJLARLY lOW

• In I Q9A, world oil rool prices. were on lowes! ~el for

lwenly ~01!.;

• Neve{t~u, Pflc~ for troospOtl fueb lnc"'016d ,llghtfy

dve 10 &xcise toxo!ion, Gosoli~ ptio;rs ro$e fo$t.3r thon

d•e-sel f"XiO!s;

• Eoetgy ptl~ lot dotr1e~!lc f!O(I$11'.'J*'"S wete dedu\lng. ox~t for-olac-lricity, ihe p-rice5. of whi~h were vnchonged Mnce 1990;

• In indowy, oil prke$ ln<:reos~d due lo lhe !Wildt lo bener

qvolrty !?fo.-lv"' tJnd 1o~otioo Go1 ond oloctticily Rfi®s

decr~osed;

fNERGY AND CARSON ~iENSinES HAVE DECREASE-D

SINO: 1990

• Ene1gy iniOruity docreo:Sed 0.7%. betw'*n l990 ond

1994. In lh~ 80',. It dt!ueo!.ed ot d90ble this spcc:d;

• CotbOft tni~M•IY :.onk 1.2% p Cl. nrtce 1990, ~lowef' thon

in !he 80's, Whi~ n·ucleor p8ne.lrotion "''OS Jhe moin drMI'Ig

!Otce in lhe 80's, ti i1 the $Wileh (u>m ~oltd~ hl naJUJd go" 1n

the

90-'J:

• In 199,, qno1gy in!en,ily do<roos'od oolohly, who1eos

cotbOf• n\len~!ly de<:lt!O~ed nt<>re ~wly than hefo1e;

C02 EMJSSIONS DECUNEO 0.9% P-A f~OM 1990 10

1994

• C02 emi~sions decu~·O$ed O.Q% p.o. belweel\ 1990 ond

1994, o" ooonornic gtowlh wos mcdltsl

tl

.

O%

p

CJI

ond

energy ond eo/bon tn!~MiheJ. declined (0.7"~ p.o. a:1d 1.2% p.c. raspect1ve!yl. Chongo$ in e11ergy ond carbon .nlenJive ex·GDR ho»i! f.u.ppos!t!d thl~ p~ten;

• C02 emissio"s were fi!dvced espeeloUy 11'1 power

ganorotion ond non.;1onsp'ort !lnol domond, wh~ro omls"$ions

were 6t' ... oAd 100:-lower••• 1994 cor•'9Citi!d to 1990;

• Tronspon !«lor e•ru.s-sloM rose 7% befv.~ 1990 ood

199A;

SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUftoOK FOR THE EUROPEAN

UNION

• Energy consulflptioo in the furopeon Unlo1\ jEUR-121 W:ll

grow in ~~ noor lvtvrlfll; os O.'lgoir:g oconomi<; growth ond fl'loderdt.e M~tgy prke~· tlfe e~ect.r:d. Afte-! hoving

inc;eo$$CI 2.4% if'l 1995 gtO$$ energy COO$VI}1pticn i$

expected JO

gtow

f\lrthet 2 . .J~:. 11'1 1996 oud 0,2% in 1997.

• Go.S-

not only coveu oil gtowlh In en1:1gy den\ond, but 11 ol~o $Cl$ oth~r lvcl$ O$id$~

• AMval C02 .,trli$~i<)n~ Dtt! 0]'!4 highe1 m 1997 <:O<nporad to 199-4. bu' 3.1% lower thon 1990 !EUR-12

uiduding c~RI. The A..,c;tunhon:. m onn(IQI C02 emln!Qn~

wilhin the foreco.s-1fng period ore cov.s-ed mainly by weo1he1

.;hongcl Mon.modo ~i~n~ Qbovl fvol milf orQ nbohng emi.S-$t0M tfl !ho.tHerM, orfse:ttlng lh~ efied of GCP gfowth;

(15)

SOURCES AND METHODS

The

World i•

d

i

v

i

ded

in

lo

the

following

r

egion.:

EUROPEAN UNION

Au1ttio, Belgurm, Denmo!~. fil'llo.-KI, Fror'lce, Germur1y,

G1eece. tretond, ltol~·. luxembourg, she Ne;Aerionds; PortugoL Spo1n, Swedt!fl ond &he lJniled Kingdom:

EFTA

-Iceland, Norway ond Switzerland;

CENTRA

L

AND EAST

ERN EUROPE

Albonto, Bvlgooo, C:t:ec::h Rep.vblrc, H11rtgory, Polcnd,

Rt~monio. Slovcle:io ond lormer YugQ:Siavio;

BAlTIC'S

FORMER USSR

Atm(lnio, Alor&oijon, &elorv.s. G&Otgio, Kozo~h$10n, KytgyL~IO!\, M.61dovo, R<~U:(J, lojlkhiOD, T1.ukmeni$lon,

Uk.tol.,e, Uzbe:k~oon;

NAFTA

OECD

P

AC

I

F

I

C

Au~!10li9, Jopon ond Nctw Zoolond;

MEDITERRANEAN

Cypr.,s, Gibrobor, Moho ond Tvrk.ey;

AFRICA

Norrh Ailico !Aigerfu, Egypl, ltbyo. ~¥\or'()(:OO and 1uth~o) ond oil Olher Africon couwie~ not ind11ded elsewhere:

M

IDDlE EAST

8ohrorn, lsroi!!l. lton, lroq,. Jetdon, \ebonon1 KllvtOil, Omon, Oo10r, Sot~di Arobio, Syrio, Um~ed Arob Em;role~ and

Y~men:

ASIA

-

_{Chino, Newly}_t_{ndu$trlalisi~} _Econom_ies·_l_{tto~ ~Mg,} S1noopore, Sooth Korea and loiwQn~ ond olt Olh4ti /'sion covn~ nol iSiduded el>ewhere ond the Pod!,<: 1.dond~:

LAT

I

N

AMER

I

CA

8n:u~:rl, Ver.exuela onr.l oil c:lthc:r-Ccntrol ond South ArnericOn

<:OVillfie~.

Oo$0 eover 1~ pellod f1am 1980 to 199.4 !01 the OeCD Covnll'iq$>

end

up to 1993" for oil non.OECD Coun!rle~, Dow for l99A' in non:o€CO Coonkie~ ore shown w~ev&f JXaYi!-ionolfjgvres ware awnloble.

The STEO covcr1. lhc p!Jtiod from lf!c ~f$f01X)rter 1996 lo !he fovrth OuO'"Ior-ot 1997

(16)

SO

UR

CES

AND ME

T

HODS

T

he

l

is

i

o

f

do

t

o soor~es

is:

• A" EVt<.>peon Uni<.>n ond its Member Ski!<:~ ene1gy o .. olo were token from !he Srotishco1 Office oJ rb.e- EIH'opeo.n

Comm,~$.ion ISOEC) Dolo 01) cl<tC;u~-~;lty .gonc:uoliog

copodtle~ wefe fl(O\O>ded by tsAP l&.!glum), th! ~V~onthly do•u vi th11 lormr4 GcfTl'IQI'I Dr.moc;.u1\it Ropvbr.c, indudod in

OOJt Sllor1-Terrn E1~1Qy 0Jiiook of the EIH'Of)(!Oh Utuon, wO$ COilUrtK!I3d wilh lfle help of Or. J tiec;$elboch of the IFf l.eip:dg GmbH.

We coli the reader'$ o·ltcnllon 10 th'e fod lho'i dolo for !he

STEO ot~ bosed Of'l ~o•\lhly ~lis.IIC) while otl other dolO ore

bos.ed

on onnuol bolonce $heets;

The diHer~n~;e~ bclwecn mon.thly ,olid -onn~,KJI .series. moy

~me!ime-s ba tignificon.l;

• Energy doto fcc ctl olhm OECD Counllie:s-c:ome from !~ ln!~rnotionol Energy ~y (lEA) enetgy bol011ces; the

rc~pcoive mocu:::c«>nomiv ond popv-lc.ioton <Joto ~(0 •okon from dECO, UN. World Bonk und IMf !!<llhrlct,: dCito on oiDCI'ricity generating c:opoQtie$ woro: p10vldod by ESAP (S~Iglum),

• .All

ene;gy dolo

to

,

non OECD Covn!nes, ax<;ept Cf:!r,llal ond fO$lefn Europe ond the lotmer USSR, OIJd latin Amen.c:o wmc lrom the lEA energy boloncos; 1994 d¢o hq~ b~W~

exuopo~oted ffom BP $I01hties; the r~~peclwe mocrooconomic: ond popvl01ioa dolo woro 1ok~n ~rom bQ{h OECD. UN, V..br!d Sank t~nd !Mf ~.ali~tic!; wilete..-et

O\'Oflob-io, dolo on ele<:•ridty go9nero1ing oopocilies ...,~

provid.eod by E.SAP (Belg1um~;

• AU energy <k.llb fo1 the Cenllal anti Eo.,&crn E>~ropcon C<n.m!nes ood !be iormer USSR come fron1 the: lEA anergy bolancCJ; the rc$pc:tcti~ n10croeconQWir.. ond popvlot•on dolo were taken !rom the UN, 'JI.brld Bonk. IMF o:1d Pkmf.con l\IQiisticr, whr.rC'II·cr avoi!ob!e, dolo an tJ!ectricily

ge~~erorlog oopcu::itleo$ weje provided by ESAP ~lg1unl),

• All doro for kiln AmefiCOfl C-ov11lues <:an'loe ffom lEA e1'1$1'9'f bolot~ceJ ond were theck.ed ogo~nu the fEI$pectlve

energy bolon~ provided by OLADE; th¢ rc~p<::<.:l1ve

mocrooconomk and popu4otion ond electlkily gMe1o1ing

oopociii~ do1a were lc~en lrorn tho OtAD€ ~l{lll~lic,,

OOft'Jple!ed w11h OECD, UN, \o\bdd &nk (11\d IMF OOh.s.J•~:

• P1ke:t of od products to11'1e l10m OGXVH s.iOIS"tl~; U\'eJoge p-ite:s lor oiher fuel$ (KIIid$, no<urolgo.rond elec.tridty~ were

!o~en ftom the lEA 'Enet'gy ?ti~~ Slathlk:t".

Dilfi~ic~ in r;:oltqr;ling

doto

fer I'!On.OECD Cot.~nlf1G$.Icod

u~_ to od'llse o degree.cf couiiOII tegordlng !~ d.olO quo·

lity in 1ho60 j:0$<1$, lhu1. COfl'lporbOI'Is betwoon $Or!os

ol

ob,clu~~ Yoiut!i shovld be 16gorded ot. pvrely lndleolive,

(17)

A l&w

wo

r

ds

on methodo

l

ogy

and

def

i

n

it

ions ore necessa

r

y

.

GENERA

L

• Prima:ry hyc:lro-efectridty p1oduchon b <:ofl!ide1~d

in !arms of nctJ cotorific:: volvo

U

GWh • 66 loe( and

prin1ary nuclear ptodochCH'l h. cokt.~1o!ed o' £vel

equivalent to ptodvce the some omcunl of eledrkiry lt1 o

po'Wel' :lotion w11h o tharn10l efffc!~q of 33%

• 8ioma:S$ dolo lor OECD Coont(ie$ (excluding Evropeon \.:.Inion M~Mber Sto~s) eorMspond 1o who!

lhe

lEA :..how:. in il$ enargy bolonc:es v!'lder "Otfler- S~id fvels". Do&O foe

o!l no....OECD CoanJrie$ t:ot.r~nd 10 lEA Ol'd UN dolo

under !h~ deUgoollort of "Veg.sol Fuel:.". h' tlte cose oi tl~

fu~n Vni9n ~co bolow

• Primary heat lgeolhem'IOI energy) is c-onsidered os being cx.~ll.u!Vdy 1,1~e.d lor p~W<lt gen(lro!ion. Heat shown in !he fiflol demo!ld £echo!\ h e~~.dU!.!vely deth·ed !rom other

lvcls (powqr gqno10'1ion and di$1ric;t hoQiingl In rhG-co~ of

the Evropeon Union ~ below.

• In the World Summary £netgy Balance, gro-ss energy consumption t:Of'l~spo"di to the lotol p<bYiaty cnc:tgy ~nwrned induding quon!iTiO$ dcli'IOrOO to motinc bunlref'3 Torol final energy consumption (TfEq does not induck on)' quantifies used lor oooo~gy porpo$$$.

• fnorgy inte-n.sity t$ ~Hoed os the rorio of eoe1gy

cqnwrnp!ion ~ o.n economic (lc;1ivity indkot01 In the co5G ol \'.)101 ene1gy tn!i!t,~!ly, the rut\c is belweo:n tht' Gro)~ lnlof>d Can$1/mplion ond GDP.

• C02 omissions cte gi ...

e:n

unly on Ot\ il\dicoti~ bo$i;. ot~ wcne col~!oTed vs•ng tOtnmon emiui011 fooor$ ocross oil c;o~rnJr•E>S. AJ 'vorld lt:vt!l, C02 embsiom r~l.·lbtlij fr0111

bvr.l;cr fuels were fndvded Ill The tQbles simito1ly 10 tho!e rewltmg from fuel:. wid to airline flnn;\porl

EURO

P

EAN

UNION

• The SOEC ~ter,ay bolnncc nOW available indvde~

oddiTio/\(11 fn1crmol!.01'1 on ronowoble energy sou1ces (biomo:;$, :;ofor, wind ond goothermal) The$c dolo rclo!W tQ ren~·oble energy !0\lfO::to! Of~ ovolklb&e s.lnoe 1985fi lhl1

lfmif$ 1ho onoly$.1.$ for Member S!ol(t~ to tho poriod 1985·

199.t 10 enw~ conslsl~l'lt:y 11'1 lht' !nne :.esle~.

• Dokr for Gennony ulclvde bolh the (Ofmer Y..~$1

Getm1ltly ond Me fo(J'I'Icr Ger100n Demotro~c Rej)llb!ic.

Moro d'OOitGd definitions ore $hown in~SOEC ond ItA pvbii'Colionl

(18)

(19)

(20)

Totol e-nel'gy production 1.1\ the worid o~ c wt.ole lequivoietlt !o Qn»$ energy <:OO$Vmption o~idc from

wme lo1oel. v(HiollOM and ~M!Iool errors) H'ICie<>!ed

from 1980 lo 1994 by oboV1 I ,.t% per year. bvt by only

0.4% ~ince 1990. Th~ rect:tll trend ter.ulb from the

lmpreuh·e reduc1ion of prcdoct.ion in CIS ~.52 Mtoe or

a redv;;tion af 2.$% bclwe~n 1990 end 199.:1) ond

CEEC (·27 Mkl.e or o reduc!ion by 11 %) It WO$

<:OfllponK!tcd by lncroo$0$ in oil othor rcg}on$ of the

world, mointy In fu.ta (+ 175 Mtoe ot + 13%1. rhe Middle fo$1 1~137 Mtoe or ._l4%), .in NA:f-TA <:oontril)l (•66 Mtoe Of +4%~ .o,,.j in Efl'A eot»\!flet. (+51 MJoe 01

+39%). In 1994, oil wos .still the m0$1 i"'po£'1ol'll fuel with 38% olto!91 (4$% in 1980t bli111s p1oduc::1ton hQ!, grown s4owet thon IO:OI ef'lefgy (0.3% per year in me period) fhll $Otond rnotl imporlol)l (~,.'!;) i~ solids whi~h kepi a

coo5ront shc.re of 1h.e Jotol of oboul ooe-qoon~. Not ... r.ol gos ronk$ lh.ird irv mecling "'~,Q

noodr.

wid! 20% in 199.4 118% m 1980) on& 11 hos ~en o sleCidy g~owlh of 2.6% per yeor in lhe peliod. tlenc•Noble e!"'C'9Y $0VfCe)

(hydf'Q, gcl()lhelmol, blomou and wind! OOmei foutlh In ~~slying

worSe!

ef!ergy demond Wilh olmo:~ I 0% rn

l'99A

19%.

in 1980) (lnd ho$ hod on onnuol overogo

i:JfOWih role ol o·lmosl 2%. Fioolly. Mcleor energy 91~

1he l\l$lesf in the porlod, moinly vp lo 1986 {l6% por yeml; ~~~ !Oir of 9rowlh ~~ down be~n 1986 ohd l<f</b to ,61(. pe1 year ond only '2.8% pe1 yeor ~1-ffl:cn 1 990 and 1994,

WORLD

~

PM!ory Produrf10t1: r<Jd ,l)o;ns

«oo

,

---..

.,

IIIII)

'"'

'"''

,

.,

·~

•

• I

•

₂

_F

• <

(

2

• _~

}

I· I

•

f

•

TOTAl PRIMAY ENERGY PRODUCTION : TOTAl BY REGION

M - 1980 198S 198.8 1990 1992 1993. 1994 8.5/10 90/U 92/90 93/9'1 94/93

...

....

...

.

..

.

....

...

.

...

..

.

...

..

.

...

..

.

...

.

..

...

....

...

....

...

....

...

....

...

....

..

....

.

..

.

...

..

.

....

.

ANI...ol " Cftoi'Q(I

.

_,....,.

.

..

.

...

.

..

...

..

...

.

,

....

..

...

.

..

...

..

.

...

..

.

....

.

....

...

..

.

...

..

...

.

..

...

.

....

.

....

...

.

..

...

.

....

...

.

..

.

70.10.9 7 ... 1,3 81~5" 1'!~~.1..(1 .S.V...G il442".$ 11~7$.3 U!t>

2.~"-.(1, ' " ' 0.1"1. 1.~'4

'W-ftltll E-.t•oP"'

...

af~,t~ 11&6,·6 ll41.$ &so,& ll7.t,7

""l

.4-1';. a . .s~

'"

1 _,.,

....

~U~on

I"'•

_7~_._· 7.11' llO.A 1.01.1

,.

...

,

...

....

~.r.:. ..0.~'!; 10, 2.~~

WA 6.1.6 !13:.1 1>.1' Ill? ISS. I IU,9

..

,.,.

.... ~ 9l'i(, 9.r. •.9':. 10.0'1;;

o. ... d ....

a r

...

~o ... F. • ...,... 268.1 zas_o, llllt.? 23~. ?13.6 210.l

,

...

t .21.. .;un:.

"·

"'

1.~s 1.'1'4

OS (11 1:160..1 ll>14,9 1an.a

"'"' 1 I.HIJ.-1

1278,). '170,!1 _~" L.tr.

,,

,

..

,

..

.

....

"'

"

'

191:01 1996,-c l\171.4 ;:u~.o 2)?0,4 "2112.7 ntn7 1.0~

,

..

""

.()"'

4.rt'~

a:co rn.v ..

ll ... 9 196.4 111.9 2:!$. ~8.0 27.2:3 27<..1

'""

.1,0::, ... r..

,,.

_I.>!_"

,\1oc!l...,_ l7.'2 211

'

"

lOA io.o 20;.a 16.!1

'

"'

'·""

I 1':\ _o.:s_~

...

,....,

·1"'-' ~26.2 ~6J,a. _""A

""·'

~.t~.C <>i.$

'·"'

l.A~ 1.7':\ 1 " 1.3).

,.

,

16J.t

....

...

~ GQ!t.J 942.~ 9~JI 1018.0 1011 a

'""'I

..

,,.

It:.~ l.J':\ >.2'4 1.~%

....,;,

,

.,

.

1108.8 J;tj$.1 ll(;l.6 1443.0 1•7.1 J. _U\1_1:₃

"

~.no _J.~.

,_,,

.,.

ln~;,.t-. .. :1<11

""'

Utl.l 4~.0 A307 4!19.C. 4~1 6-

,...,

2A ,,2,:.

:u'JI.

,_.,

0,$,

.

...

..

....

...

..

,

.

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.

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.

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,J ... .h l'r.)

c.~-..un;c,. M

•••

'

"

..

'·'

'·

'

..

...

·3.2'4 .0.6'4

...

··"'

OKO 'l&.!o

..,,,

,

...

'37.8 ):8'j _30.0

,

..

lA• lA~

....

'"

I I ll..du6o19 lkfllc C11...,11;., lo;~o •IUUi"tcl ·-·~

(21)

WORLD

Between 1980 ond 1994, OECO ond ncn.OECD oreo~ hod

oppr-oxl;'I\O!ely it.~ ~CrM growlh u'l lokll ~etgy product;on (l .4'%. per YQO!), bua evolution differed $l,ightly In lime by

regi<m~. The bvllc of ln4;1¢0~ in non.o<;OE covnlrt1!3. Qt(;I.JH~

between 1986 ond 1990 wilh on overcge onnuolgrowth of 3.5% moinly in tho Middle EQ~t ( .. 9 570 por yoorl which

reeovefed •n 1990 JO otY.,vl !he 1980s le-vel. Md 111 A~o

(""d.5~ pee yeorl, During lhe s.ome time, OE.CD grew only by

obout I & pe1 yew wilh o ~k

of

9.5% In EfTA cct,~nlries S'i.oce 1990. !he production hod o drop of obo111 1'%.

c;omporod IQ on inor::f90$C of

6 .

0%

in the O€CI> Aporl llom

deV'etoprtlMIS ;,~ tl~ fotrilel USSR o~ In C~tr~l Ol'ld EC!slettl

Europe, prodvctioB <on.•inved co increo~o moil'ly in Asio 117.5

Mt~>e or ... 3.0% per yeot), •n the tv\i.ddle &ul (137 Mlc;~c ot

+3.4t.;. per yeor) ond ln lolin Am!;!rlco. ~ .. 71 MY.Ie 01 +3.9%

pc;t ~ru).

""

_''"

<m• omo

·=

<ru>

....

I

• I

• ..

> 0 >

1 ~

~

> >

_"

i

"

i!

,

·

•

• ,

•

• '

;

•

In 19:9~, enmgy pmdv~ion cont.in~ !Q full in Ccnlrpl Qnd

Eoslem Europe ond in CIS, witll o.n occelefotion of the lfend In

the Cl& (·8..4%)

On

thO; olher hond, prodoction in tl)g Middle

Eo~! lnc.te<J~ ~wly by t'lllno~l 2%, A!fo by ..!.3-~ and lohn A.tn9rlco by 6.5%. T~ furopoon Union in 1994 confirmed on upword lfend (.,-2.5%) in •ts do•nes.!ic p•odu<;lion cngogcd in 1993. 8uilbe E1Kope011 limon, olwg With Cenlfol ond Eo$le(n

Europe ond the !Qrmct VSSR, ~hore l+lo dls.tiru;tion ol b<llng 1ho

only w()(ld ~ions where produc1iO() fn I ~9~ v«J:> IC!wt!t' than In 1985 Wifhin 1ho noi'\-OECD o.uw ~~ rnoin ene1gy ptoduce<.s ore: A\iO Ol'ld d.e forme• USSR ecJcb uc(:o~,~nltn<J fo•

18% of 30tol wotld prcd;~ction, ond the M.dd.le EO$! witl1 I 3-%.

Oil rcmoil'l$ the dammonl !vel In world prodvcllon

on&

coMumptiOn, althovsh o:> stcted obove '' 00$ lo$1 tl$ ,hare ll\ lotol e:r~gy ptodtX:rioon, wi1h ;:he }:99d ~~ only d% hjghei

thon tn 1980. OPEC 0$ o whole u:mo1m. !he maj()J o•1 ,prodocer, but h$ welghl in lOtol wotld oil production f.ell {rom

44% In 19'80 r54% Ill 197311o ·II% in 199.1, ....,tt, o minlmvm !llo.-e of 29% In 1985, Sil'l<:l! 1990, dko 1ho(~ of Wt~~tn Evrope ho.s 5horply ;nueOsed lirom 6% in ~990 to. 9% '"

1'99AI i!'l liM wilh !he UICU!(I~i.ng produd!OJl ft<;>!n lhe Nor-th Seo. ln le<r,ltle1e lo;t lour yeors prodoclion losws in CIS ot~d

Eo~to:rn ~wniT•C$

h<lvo:

beer; compcn~o~ only by the Middle

Eo$1 (112 Mice), \\~stem Europe (87 Mice) ond loll" Ametloo (50 M'o(ll. the rAh'llf' regions OOing qvi*O $loble, in porticulor the N..-.HA tegior), rhe ~ond wottd ptoduter

(22)

WOR

L

D

~

TOTAL SOLID PRODUCTION : TOTAL BY REGION

1911:0 1915 1988 1990 -1992 "1993 1994 85/80 90/85 92/90 9J/9? 94/9~

.

...

.

..

.

...

.

....

...

..

· '

.

....

.

..

...

....

.

...

·'·

...

..

....

;

.

,

...

....

,

.

...

.

,

.

...

..

...

"''

..

...

..

....

··~··

...

'

.

...

....

...

.

....

...

.

...

. .

...

.

..

~

l"""f'Mfn t,lo:l,...

rnA

C~la·.! En"'"'" fu•ol'• CIS II!

NMTA

C£.m.i'<Y.&o

rh<llwm"'""

AAiw

ll<.ld\;, &..II

...

1(112.3 7~7.&

~~,.~

"·

'

192.2 338,1'

.470:'2

6·l,b

"'

'"

_•••

,.tOJ.l

,

,.,..

;2.tl;tl

'1:)99

••

'""'

,.,_,

""-'

ln. I

IO)

los.1

""

S32.3

10..!>

?171,7 1210~

?Jl l 2149

?».9 , .... ,

U.l 0.?

?03.9 1<':7<3

J.JI:B ~l

537 I .5~0.'7'

n.1

nz.>~

11.3 12 . .4

11111 ILU 0,8 06

~,a 66&₁s

l!i.~ 18 . .t 21<1$,.

(Jij:'1.

"~ _O> ljJ.

,

..

.

,..

1?3:3

,

,,

109.<

••

"""

1.5$7

IS$.~

•·

'

150.7

"139.7

.S?II.~

lltii.J 11,7

113.8

•

7.;ti..S 19.8

'2:1.0$

1:16.7

130t$

01

1<1_8,'?

:nJ:S ::179.?

I :IS?

111

I:Zl.J

~

·

7&7.9

111

13~

,

"'

-1 .t'\.

..

...

I "

•• 6'S.

I>' 7.l'\. II&\

,

..

6.~'\ h$~ II\~

''

"

·12'-·'?'it~ 10~~

'

"'

.

..

·~

...

,,.

1.11\.

.

...

,.

tl.~

·• $11.

.9,.1\;,

...

'

"'

• ,q <J;.

·s.&'i;.

· '

.ql

· '

~

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•• ~'J:. .],l'). 7,l'$.

'·

"'

.

....

u~

••• 0'\

.~,.,~

2$.3"'

I'>'

·

• on.

· •.,.

I"

.J 0~

,

...

"'

'

"'

~""

"'

·112~ \1:.2,

~? 3'·

I.'~~ .

·1

...

00 ..

O.!t..

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...

,

,..

•

l''''''''''''t''''''''''''''''" ''"'''"''''''" ' "''''' '"''''''''''''''' ' '''''''"'''''' " ' ' ''''''' '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ' ' "'''' ' ' "''''" '" l)l .. i.tell lltl

f~ ... "'~

""""

, ... :1

4).:1

u.s 10:6 4U 39.Y

9,7 :;..~ :;~ 6.• ·lA'l. ·3.Y~ .&.1"1: -9"~"- J,tJ,_ 41.0 .:W.9 :Jfi.C: ~ .In 0~ ·1.4% ~~ lA

TOTAL OIL PRODUCTION : TOTAL BY REGION '

...

1980 t935 '" ' " 1990 1992 1993 1994 85/80 90/85 92/90 93/<ol'i 94/93

... . . . ... 1 ... . . . . ... . . . . ... . . ... . ... . . . ... . . . ... . ... .

...

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.

....

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···

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···

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···

····

· ····

··

·

· ···

··

·

· ···

···

· ...

.

..

....

..

.

...

.

Y'lt.Wt"Eo.~

~ .. !,!n>)fl

"

"'

c;.n~ ""'' &w.-~ futt~l>t

CIS

OfCO~~

M..S...,_•

.,..,

Mkldi• &..i

3fl6 3 IJ<;'.d 94,4

·~

~

· no

01)!1,2.

..

,

..

n

.

2. "

Jl~I.R

""'

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,.,.,

19.S i!

,.

,

?B$il 9

190,$

1$! 0 -39:"$

191 .$981

l11U

2.?-!

'

· '

171iL

5<175

·'2111 3

191»

!)

,..,.

129.6

U.t,-7

,.,.

.

..

WA

'"""

,.

~

1<>>

,..,

').017

nn

:l?_il3,1

101,11

117.$

~·

\d,

··

o)

S?J.~

970,.1 $11

'

Jl34 '86?,0

..,

_,.

_,

,

3236-1 U>A

121,6

11)9$

lJ> 4$1>0

~18.7

,

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.3:)7'?

02QO

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j!:'i5 7

;l1.tl'8

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.

'Z7 3

ll7.6

~2-9

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,.,

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lH..S 7&0

ol6 3.6 3 s 3,.9

JO:l 18,0 2.9 I 292.

~7.;,,

(:88.6

1566

132.0

126 ~

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9~,1

Jl72 ?85.3

.I . .

9.6%

9,6%

·16%

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1

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10.0)1.

(l

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1.2~

.t 0\. 0.~

56%

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.,

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II 61.

II ' .<>.&'Jr.

·9.0'1>

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....

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4.8 I?~ ~ft lA •A 21~ JO.G 5,2"- ~16~ 1:9\. 6,!1"- , Q'\ TOTAl GAS PRODUCTION : TOTAl. BY REGION

1980 1915 1911 J990 1991 tCXI3

•m astto

90/U 92:190 .93/92 9~/~

... ?''''''"'':~··· .. , ... .

·-

V4HIO:mt.~~

E"IJPOQflllll)¢tl

EllA

Ct<!rQI t;lAd Eo11«.nh!or>t

co

"

OEC:O

"

'"

f'cd lt

M«Jitfl'nte!J~

"""'

MI#"C foil

"''

l,dl!>~tiQII

ol,.lti:fo.f!Q E'I<O!*I'"IJ"bl

0«0

II

UU.I

1S6'

133.3

~.0 ,~;).5

~~.0

5.'2,1 10,3

•

• ''"

36.2

u

o

...

.

1Q7

...

1<132.0

!U.I •at7

~3 . .t

"

'

):.!()' l.~U 10.2

•

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..

$4.9

7:!2

40.1 lblO.-,

IJ9,) IZ<S 25.•

"'

0'>2!/

506.(1 lt.ll 01 51.0

....

•

.1!7 li'Ol.o. 1.)0.8

m.1

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o.S6."J

bU.o

'22.8

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77 78

.. ~. ..., 0

16;.8-J

112.>

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5"40.-' 2.U

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183.0

IS1~

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...

503-.~

>1.2

0,2

72:>

10} I 132:.2

..

~

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1 . . ) !:09.6

21,1

23.1

.)10.1)

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7

2.8')1, ~l'lto

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9.2 -30'4 33'\ 5-h 5.7'- -o.~

1.61 ·.tl~ 17% 30\ ~tO\ 3 l't'

(23)

,

WORLD

·~~~~

....

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t

f!

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n.e

shor-t

oE

solids r~llotd qtt•lit' ~ St«:e l980or

ob~ 25% of !he toeol wtth o peak ot 27'\ ;., 1985 llle

target p(Or.lu~e, ,., i99A refflO•IIed A.!.ill (3~;. of ~ totol compared lo 22'\ in 1<>80!. followed by NAffA f?7% lt1 1994 11'10 a<lMICI M~l tn In 1980) lnclotuerl

prodoction •n thos. rwo rtgion~ compenso1ed ;lowdown

in CIS~ Eo\ltrn eovnh'f.fl) '" u:lol•on 10 ~Ono.."'\iC ond pob~ot reforth~o

Otld

~utdown In 1he EU'I'opeofl Un.oo o~

o con~• of •he tf)"'-'Cti.*Qtion ol tl,e cool 1oec10r, tn 199A, h lw<o ~ FMod.c:en we~e Ch.tJa

t600

- .... Uo ... -

1530

-~

..,....,

by lodio,

....,.,.. end ... 12() .. 125 ,_leo -~

.,

....

..,.

Among.tr !he fouA f~~Ctlt, natured gas ptOd.!.lebon

$howed ltle major lf1Ct60!o• between 1980 of\d 1990

wiih o aotQlgo!n ol 38~ bvl1.1nco 1990 lhc: pux!v<;lion

remoined qv111: 't¢blt. Tht .h01e of no.t~Kol gos gfew from I

r..

,,..

1980 10 20\> •n 1990, •omoir.i119 ol th!,.

ltovel )ll'£~ lt.en Tlw lwo n'IOjOI contHbuiOtl dudl'l9 th~:

period WEote

tn.

OS 13¢0 Mtoe in 1980 ond $16 1-1~

Rl 199~ w.lil o

f*ll

ol 656 MIOe m 1990t ond lho

N..o\f(A ~~ 154 2 Mtott 11'1 1980 to

b.!

COfiiPO'E'd

to

$91 M~t::Je •l'l t99A) TN r lhore"' W gc» podt.~Criott

!JCN>'ed dOWfl

frOtll

7~ •n 1980 k1 64"'o UJ 199.1

Prock'Ction h lncrta""Q M0$1 ropld If\ Asio w;ltl on

ann~XJI grawth

of

olmo1t ~ pa• yem on OYCtogo s.!ncc 1980. All the other ttglot~~ o1e olso •neteosi•ll:) thei1 prod~t;.,n but ot mort modoro)e rot~n

Amol"gsl the non.fouil fuoiJ, ''must be noted:

• r;onJnbul•on

ol

n~~t-~• !JIICIC'CUred from 2 .6"'1o. '" 1980

10 6

r.;.

in 1w.s. WI*' copoc..,,e; l!'laltlfy bcoled '"

()fa)

• d.o<. cl

">d<o

... """"

...a

2.3'-cl ....

k:ltol

wt""

a'IOl(W -~·t

tn

noR-Of:CO C~l&s

whefe the polf:r.llal &or •~~tmrl

''

lnO!t11y loc:chad for

geogropltic reo$o0ns

• b•cmo.1s. oh.Q prO\I'tftl('d n tllo\lln <:onbibl.ltiOt'l (or011t1d

7%) wilt! plodVC:tiOI\ ln(fctCnll\fl (II thto. SOI'lloe: 1a)e both

in the OECD ond ni)I!·OtiCO •og•o•u .