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Extrapolating survival from randomised trials using external data : a review of methods

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Figure

Figure 1Example survival data. The aim is to extrapolate theincremental expected survival between interventions (B–A) byusing long-term data from an external population (C).
Figure 2Framework of model choices for survival extrapolation using external data. Long-term survivalgroups A and B is estimated via assumptions about equivalence of hazards S for control and treatment h between populations A, B, and C.
Figure 3Example hazards for disease and external populations as functions of time, under 4 different assumptions about how the diseasepopulation hazards relate to the external population hazards.

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