A social-ecological systems analysis of impediments to delivery of the Aichi 2020 Targets and potentially more effective pathways to the conservation of biodiversity

A

social–ecological

systems

analysis

of

impediments

to

delivery

of

the

Aichi

2020

Targets

and

potentially

more

effective

pathways

to

the

conservation

of

biodiversity

R.

Hill

*

,

G.A.

Dyer

,

L.-M.

Lozada-Ellison

,

A.

Gimona

,

J.

Martin-Ortega

,

J.

Munoz-Rojas

,

I.J.

Gordon

a

CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation(CSIRO),POBox12139,EarlvilleBC,Cairns4870,Queensland,Australia

b

DivisionofTropicalEnvironmentsandSocieties,JamesCookUniversity,Australia

c_{DesarrolloyAlimentacio´nSustentable,A.C.,MexicoCity,Mexico}

d

JamesHuttonInstitute,Invergowrie,Dundee,UK

1. Introduction

Biodiversitylosscontinuesglobally,drivingmajoralterationsto earth’s ecosystems and the services they provide to humans (Cardinaleetal.,2012;Hooperetal.,2012).Globalcommitments made under the Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD) to

substantiallyreduceratesof biodiversitylossby2010werenot met.ThenewStrategicPlanforBiodiversity2011–2020including theAichiTargets(hereafterStrategicPlan2020,AichiTargets)sets outtwomechanismstoprovideastrongerbasisforglobalaction: (1)20‘‘SMART’’(Specific,Measurable,Ambitious,Realistic, Time-bound) targets tobe achieved by 2020; and (2) adoption of a specificImplementationDecision(SecretariatoftheConventionon BiologicalDiversity,2010,2011).TheStrategicPlanand Implemen-tationDecisionhavebeenwelcomedbysomeasambitious, well-targetedand highlyrelevant,clearly addressingsocio-economic factorsthatconstitutetheunderlyingdriversofbiodiversityloss (Perringset al.,2011). Nevertheless,a mid-term analysisfound

ARTICLE INFO

Articlehistory:

Received11September2014 Receivedinrevisedform7April2015 Accepted11April2015

Availableonline

Keywords:

AichiTargets

Biodiversity Politicalecology Power

Social–ecologicalsystems Environmentalists’paradox

ABSTRACT

TheAichi 2020Targets,undertheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(CBD),aimtohaltthelossof biodiversityby2020,inordertoensurethatecosystemscontinuetoprovideessentialservices.Herewe applyasocial–ecologicalsystemsanalysistoprovideinsightintothediversesysteminteractionsthat poseimpedimentstodeliveryoftheAichiTargets.Weappliedananalyticalframeworkofpair-wise exchangesalongsixaxesbetweenthesocial,economic,environmentalandpoliticallocioftheglobal social–ecologicalsystem.Theanalysisidentifiedthatmanyimpedimentsresultfrompartialdecoupling inthesystemthroughphenomenaincludingdelayedfeedbacksandinsufficientinformationflows.It suggests15oftheAichiTargetsareunlikelytobedelivered;3arelikelytobedeliveredinpart;and2in full.Weconsideredhowinterventionsatleveragepointsmayovercometheimpediments,andcompared thesetoactionsincludedwithintheImplementationDecisionfortheAichiTargets,tofindgaps.Thesenew leveragepointstofillidentifiedgapsinvolvemanyaspectsofsystemre-coupling:co-productionof knowledgeandmoreequitablefoodsystemsgovernance(environmental–socialaxis);supportforsocial changemovements(social–politicalaxis);anappropriatefinancialtargetforbiodiversityconservation investment,withaclearmeansofimplementation suchasacurrencytransaction tax(economic– politicalaxis);and co-governanceofnaturalresources (environmental–politicalaxis).Therecently releasedGlobalBiodiversityOutlook4showsthat18ofthe20AichiTargetsaretrackinginaccordance withouranalysis;andthatcurrenteffortsareunlikelytoresultinanimprovementinthebasestateof biodiversityby2020,confirmingsomeofourresults.Wearguethatattentiontotheinteractionswithin, andthepartialdecouplingof,theglobalsocial–ecologicalsystemprovidesnewinsights,andisworthyof furtherattention bothfordeliveryoftheAichiTargetsand forguidinglongertermactionsforthe conservationofbiodiversity.

ß2015TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.ThisisanopenaccessarticleundertheCCBY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

* Corresponding author at: CSIRO, Room 104E, Australian Tropical Forest InstituteBuilding,McGregorRoad,Smithfield4878,Queensland,Australia. Tel.:+61740595013;mobile:+61418188958.

E-mailaddress:ro.hill@csiro.au(R.Hill).

ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirect

Global

Environmental

Change

j ou rna l hom e pa ge : w w w. e l s e v i e r. c om/ l o ca t e / gl oe n v cha

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.005

thatdespiteacceleratingpolicyandmanagementresponses,the conditionofbiodiversityistrendingdown(Leadleyetal.,2014; Tittensoretal.,2014).Thesepolicyinitiativesoccurinacontextof complexsocial and ecologicalsysteminteractions where inter-ventions can have unanticipated consequences (Collins et al., 2010;Norris, 2012). In thispaper,we applya social–ecological systems(SES)analysistoprovideinsightintothediversesystem interactionsthatposeimpedimentstodeliveryoftheAichiTargets and consider the implications for potentially more effective pathwaystotheconservationofbiodiversity.

Social–ecologicalsystems (SES)sciencerespondsto accumu-lating evidence that society and the environment are strongly coupledandcoevolving(Collinsetal.,2010;Liuetal.,2007).Planet Earthcanbeconsidered asa large,coupled humanand natural systemincludingmanysmallercoupledsystemslinkedthrough flowsofenergy,information,matterandevolvingthroughtimeas asetofinterconnectedcomplexadaptivesystems,thatarereferred toassocial–ecologicalsystems(SES)(Liuetal.,2015).However, evidence is also accumulating that economic and cultural globalisationisdecouplingsocialandecologicalsystems,through innovation,andincreasesintheconnectivity,speedandscaleof linkages that drive social system change, without evident accompanying environmental change (Young et al., 2006). Raudsepp-Hearne et al. (2010) consider that such partial decouplingintheglobalSESmayexplainwhyhumanwell-being increasesasecosystemservicesdecline,termedthe ‘‘environmen-talists’paradox’’.Thebehaviourofanycomplexsystememerges,in part,fromtheinteractionsbetweenitscomponents(Newell,2012; Sterman,2000). Basicsysteminteractions include flows(e.g.of informationandmaterials),accumulationsofstocks(e.g.natural andsocial capital)and effects suchas positivefeedbacksloops, thresholds,orlagsthatdampenanddelayflowsandconnections between components(Newell,2012; Sterman,2000). ‘‘Leverage points’’canexistasa resultofsuchsysteminteractions:places whereasmallshiftinonepartcanproducelargechangesinthe wholesystem(Forrester,1969;Meadows,2008).

WebeginbypresentingandjustifyingourSESframeworkfor representinginteractionsalongsixaxesbetweensocial,economic, environmentalandpoliticalloci,followedbyadescriptionofour methodsforanalysis.Wethenpresenttheresultsofouranalysisof howinteractionswithintheSESmayimpededeliveryoftheAichi Targets, and the potential leverage points for interventions to overcome theseimpediments.We then present ouranalysis to identifygapswhereactionsaremissingorgivenminimalattention withintheImplementationDecision,andwhereadditionalactions couldgeneratepotentiallymoreeffectivepathwaysofchange.We conclude by discussing how scientific attention to the SES interactionsanddynamicsiscriticaltoenhanceopportunitiesto delivertheAichiTargetsby2020,andsetmoreeffectivepathways forthelonger-termconservationofbiodiversity.

2. Analyticalframework

Social–ecologicalsystems (SES)analysisis arapidlygrowing field of scientific endeavour, which has led to fundamental discoveries: emergent properties and complexity; interconnec-tionsamongmultiplekeyissues(suchasair,climate,energy,food, land, and water); assessment of multiple, often conflicting, objectives;andsynergisticinteractionssuchasbetweeneconomic efficiency and environmental impact mitigation. In addition, systems analysis allows for clarification and reassignment of environmentalresponsibilitiesamongactors,reductionofconflicts anddesignofconservationanddevelopmentpoliciesandpractices thatminimisetrade-offs(Liuetal.,2015).Nevertheless,veryfew SESanalytical frameworksand approachesspecifically consider interactions between system components (Binder et al., 2013;

Hufnagl-Eichineretal.,2011).Binderetal.’s(2013)examinationof how interactions were addressed within ten common SES frameworks found that only three addressed bi-directional interactions between social and ecological components; none considerbi-directionalinteractionsbetweenmultiplesubsystem components.WeidentifiedoneSESframeworkthatconsiderssuch multiplebi-directionalinteractions:thefourspheresframework for SES analysis in sustainability contextscreated by O’Connor (2006)andMaximetal.(2009).Wedevelopedamodifiedversion ofthis‘fourspheres’frameworkforouranalysisofinteractionsin SES,whichtheydepictasamatrixofpair-wiseinterfacesbetween economic, social, environmental and political domains (Fig. 1, Table1;O’Connor,2006;Maximetal.,2009).Wedefinedthemas lociratherthanspheresasintheoriginal,toavoidconfusionwith theencompassingplanetarysphere.

The pair-wise interactions in the four-loci model are char-acterised according to the original four-spheres framework. Exchangesofinformationandresourcesoccurbetweentheloci, which have accumulations that can be considered as social, natural, economic and political ‘‘capital’’ (Maxim et al., 2009; O’Connor,2006).Forexample,interactionsbetweenthesocialand economiclociincludeexchangesoflabourandwages; character-isticsoftheseflowsincludeemploymentconditionsandpaylevels that are highly diverse and change over both time and space. Interactionsbetweenthesocialandpoliticallociincludeflowsof publicparticipationandreturnsoflegitimacy;characteristicsof these interactions include issues of equityand justice. Table 1 summarises the interactions between all fourloci, drawing on previous more elaborated descriptions in O’Connor (2006) and Maximetal.(2009).

3. Methodsforanalysis

Byitsnature,social–ecologicalsystemsanalysis,attheglobal scale, requires multiple disciplinary perspectives, with diverse epistemologiesandconceptualframeworksthatarechallengingto combine(Jernecketal.,2011).Newell(2012)providesasystematic approach to structuring integrated analysis in such contexts throughafocuseddialoguemethod,whichweadaptedtoa four-step process (Fig. 2). In thefirst step we identified our multi-disciplinary team of nine members with diverse expertise: anthropology;biodiversity;biology;ecology;economics; ecosys-temservices;governance;humangeography;landusemodelling; landscape planning; political ecology; and social–ecological systems science. Preparatory documents for a 2-day expert workshop on understanding pair-wise interactions framed our approachtotheanalysisofimpedimentstothedeliveryoftheAichi Targets in terms of SES interactions across social–economic– environmental lociwithglobalizationas akey influence.Inthe secondstep,weconductedthedeliberativeanalysisatthe2-day expert workshop, through four elements: (i) how pair-wise interactionsbetweenthelocicouldimpededeliveryofaparticular AichiTarget;(ii)whichpair-wiseaxishadthemostinfluenceon particulartargets;(iii)whatwerethepotentialleveragepointsto addresstheseimpediments;and(iv)howthesecouldbeusedto generatepotentiallymoreeffectivepathwaysforconservationof biodiversity(Fig.2).

foundinrelationtotheidentifiedimpedimentsandleveragepoints forchange.Theanalysiswas,therefore,bounded bytesting the deliberationsfromtheexpertsintheworkshop.Instepthree,again post-workshop,wecomparedthepotentialleveragepointswith theexistingactionswithintheImplementationDecisiontoidentify gaps.Thepotentiallymoreeffectivepathwaysforconservationof biodiversityare,therefore,limitedtoareaswheregapsexistinthe ImplementationDecision.Thesegapswerefoundtoberelatedto interactionsalongfourofthesixpair-wiseaxes(Table3).TheSES analyticalframeworkwasupdated in iterationsthroughout the post-workshop process. In the final step, we considered our findingsinthecontextofexistingtheoryinthescientificliterature relevant to biodiversity conservation policy, to underpin the discussionandconclusionsinthispaper.

4. SysteminteractionsthatimpededeliveryoftheAichiTargets

Ouranalysisidentifiedsignificantimpedimentstothedelivery oftheAichiTargetswithinthecomplexmutualinteractionstaking placebetweenthediverse lociof theSES.Thecolourcoding in

Table2,whichisthesameasthecolourcodinginTable1,indicates the axis that we identified as posing the most significant impedimentaffectingeachtarget:

Redforthesocial–economicaxis.

Bluefortheenvironmental–economicaxis. Greenfortheenvironmental–socialaxis. Yellowforthesocial–politicalaxis. Orangefortheeconomic–politicalaxis. Purplefortheenvironmental–politicalaxis.

ThesecondcolumninTable2summarisesthetargets,thefull versionofwhicharepresentedinS1.ThethirdcolumnofTable2 summarisestheidentifiedimpedimentsarisingfromSES interac-tionsonwhichtheclassificationintoaparticularaxisisbased.The superscriptnumeralsinthistablecitesourcesfromtheliterature reviewthatsoughtconfirminganddisconfirmingevidence;these sources are listedin theSupplementary Material. Many of the interactions that impede delivery of the targets can be char-acterisedasformsofpartialsystemdecoupling,includingdelayed

Table1

Theaxesandassociatedexchangesbetweensocial,political,environmentalandeconomiclocidepictedinFig.1.

feedbacksand insufficientinformation flows. The influences of these interactions is such that 15 targets are unlikely to be delivered;3arelikelytobedeliveredinpart;and2infull(16and 18)simplybecauselittlechangeisrequiredfortheirdelivery.

4.1. Red:social–economicaxis

Interactionsalongthesocial–economicaxiswerenotidentified asthemajorsourceofimpedimenttothedeliveryofanyoneofthe

Fig.2.Stepsintheanalysis.

Table2

SysteminteractionsthatposeimpedimentstodeliveryoftheAichiTargets,togetherwithidentificationofthemajoraccessofinfluenceoneachtargetandlikelihoodoftarget delivery:redforsocial–economic;blueforenvironmental–economic;greenforenvironmental–social;yellowforsocial–political;orangeforeconomic–political;andpurple forenvironmental–political.a

Aichi Target Impediments from SES interacons Major axis of

influence

Delivery # Focus

1. People more aware of biodiversity values

This target implies a deficit model of communicaon that assumes the publics’ percepons of risks and benefits of biodiversity loss are rooted in ignorance. However, people already have awareness of biodiversity values underpinned by culturally-based world-views, knowledge systems and discourses1

. These socio-cultural values are blocked from influencing biodiversity outcomes primarily through the polical-instuonal subsystem2 and also through pressing needs for provisioning services3, 4

.

Environmental-social; Community

capacity/diversity, also the contexts of marginalized peoples

Not likely

2. Biodiversity integrated into development

Technical barriers exist that impede defining and measuring culturally-diverse biodiversity values5, 6

which oen involves monezing and privazing7

; lack of agreed local-global framework of accounng for natural capital, and for the relaonship between biodiversity and ecosystem services8

.

Environmental -economic; Issues of natural resource economics

Not likely

3. Perverse incenves and subsidies removed

Economic interests impede shiing away from subsidies. The food producon system has economic distorons, typically import barriers and subsidies that favour farmers in developed world, and urban populaons9, 10. New market mechanisms that “enclose” land and natural resources serve in many cases to dispossess the poor rather than slow biodiversity loss11, 12

. Higher levels of debt service, structural adjustment and primary sector exports are associated with higher levels of environmental degradaon in poor naons13

.

Economic-polical; Issues of rules of markets, distribuve jusce, power differenals

Not likely

4. Sustainable producon and consumpon

Sustainable producon and consumpon is impeded by the fundamental issue that the world economy/populaon is geng larger in scale than the planet14-16

. Few stakeholders have access to democrac connecons to enable acons that reduce power imbalances. Future generaons are not represented. Rich countries have 2-5 mes the per capita sustainable consumpon idenfied through ecological footprint analysis17; new global financial structures support increasing subordinaon to internaonal economic liberalizaon18 .

Environmental-social; Issues of marginalised peoples, rights of future generaons suppressed in global power differenals

Table2(Continued)

5. Rate of loss of natural habitats halved

Human populaons and their levels of consumpon are both increasing19

; 850 million people face hunger globally20; agricultural expansion is the largest threat to remaining areas of natural habitat globally21; conflicng evidence about whether agricultural-intensificaon (land-sparing) or agro-ecological matrix (land-sharing) offer the best approaches for food security and biodiversity conservaon impedes acon22, 23.

Environmental -polical; Issues of seng standards that balance risks/benefits of pressures on and services from environment.

Not likely

6. Sustainable harvests of fisheries

Global trade has effecvely masked the successive depleon of fish stocks in industrialised fishing since 1950 and about one-third of current fisheries are probably over-fished24; n on-compliance is normalized rendering policy sengs dysfunconal25

; duplicity and ignorance undermine fisheries management26.

Social-polical; Issues of equity, undermining of legimacy of compliance regimes.

Not likely

7. Sustainable agriculture, aquaculture and forestry

High producon costs and collapsing prices for farm products push farmers out of opons for trialling sustainable systems20; agriculture, aquaculture and forestry produce ecosystem-disservices including soil erosion, pest outbreaks, nutrient and pescide run-offs27, 28

; trade-offs between yield and biodiversity appear intractable29, 30; agricultural protecon connues to favour developed naons at the expense of developing, both net food-imporng and net-exporng31

.

Environmental -economic; Issues of environmental condion, power differenals between producers and consumers.

Not likely

8. Polluon brought to safe levels

Control of diffuse polluon (from intensive farming, aquaculture, urbanizaon, industrialisaon, greater shipping traffic, fishing 32, 33) impeded by informaon asymmetries34 and stochasc effects that render both market and regulatory mechanisms ineffecve and slow to respond35, 36; me lags between pracce change and polluon reducon (e.g. in farming)37

; point source polluon (e.g. chemicals) control easier but impeded by adhoc arrangements38 and compliance costs in systemac approaches39

.

Economic-polical; Issues of market failure (informaon, compliance).

Not likely

9. Invasive species control

Some invasive species’ eradicaon results in increases of provisioning and cultural ecosystem services and is supported by mulple stakeholders40

while control is impeded by scale and priorizaon challenges 15, 41; the need for biosecurity measures to control trade, mass transport, immigraon drivers (e.g. movement constraints) is not widely accepted42, 43

.

Environmental-social; Issues of power differenals between producers and consumers.

Not likely

10. Climate impacts on biodiversity minimized

Climate change policy iniaves are impeded by growing public scepcism related more to socio-cultural and “affect” factors (e.g. conspiracy theories) than scienfic uncertainty44, 45

; the most crical threats (terrestrial polluon, fishing impacts, climate change) are not well-addressed in even best-managed reefs; policy priorises development (e.g. ports for export industries)36.

Environmental -polical; Issues of seng standards, credibility, legimacy.

Not likely

11. Protected areas cover 17% of terrestrial, inland water; 10% of coastal and marine

85% of protected areas globally are occupied by indigenous peoples and ongoing parks-people conflicts impede expansion46, 47

; compeon for land use that skews protected areas

to places “high and far” where they do not oppose the conversion of habitat for human use48 is instuonalized in the new differenal 17/10 target, impeding representaveness; 40% of protected areas in a recent global analysis showed major deficiencies in effecveness49; establishment of protected areas is impeded by marine resource-dependency50

and indigenous territorial claims51

.

Environmental-social; Issues of marginalized peoples, power differenals.

Likely

12. Exncons of threatened species prevented

Time lags between anthropogenic drivers and exncon outcomes, and interacve effects between mulple anthropogenic drivers, impede idenficaon of “those most in decline”52; mulple acons needed to prevent exncons are impeded by drivers for ongoing supply of ecosystem services for humans associated with land use and cover change53.

Environmental -economic; Issues of environmental condion, produ cer-consumer power differenals.

Not likely

13. Genec

diversity of culvated biota maintained

Genec diversity increases yields in crops and fisheries14; nevertheless genec erosion connues through homogenizing effects of industrial agriculture involving replacement of landraces by modern culvars and further breeding54, 55

; reversing genec erosion is impeded by lack of recognion and power in the tradional farming, collecve property and acon systems that establish and maintain land/sea race variees56, 57

; sovereign resource rights and private intellectual property rights dominate over communal rights in internaonal regime complex58 .

Social-polical; Access to resources structured by gender, class, race and geopolical power differenals.

Not likely

14. Ecosystem services restored and safeguarded

Access to essenal services for indigenous peoples and local communies is impeded by polical, social and economic inequies59, 60 e.g. export of embedded ecosystem services (e.g. water) to developed countries61

; restoraon efforts in degraded environments are impeded by war, refugee movements, lack of infrastructure and unstable governments59, 62, 63.

Environmental-social; Issues of distribuon structured by gender, class, race and geopolical power differenals.

AichiTargets.AselaboratedinO’Connor(2006)andMaximetal. (2009), these interactions are essentially between labour and capital.Thecharacteristicsofsuchinteractionswerethesubjectof many20thCenturypoliticalcontestsregardingtherelativemerits of capital–labour relationships in communist, socialist, free-marketandcentrallyplannedeconomies.Couplingbetweenflows oflabourinreturnforwagesappearsrelatedtosocialconditions such as the skill of the workers and their extent of collective organisation, for example through unions. While the diverse characteristicsofthesearrangementscouldinfluence biodiversity-related outcomes, highrates of biodiversity lossare associated withhigh-wage,high-consumptionandlow-wage,highpoverty contexts (Tittensor et al., 2014). Given this variability, the relativelylowimportanceofsocial–economicinteractionsasan impedimenttotheAichiTargetsisperhapsnotsurprising.

4.2. Blue:environmental–economicaxis

Interactions along the environmental–economic axis, in particulartimelagsthatdelaythefeedbackbetweeneconomic activitiesandenvironmentalimpacts,impededeliveryofTargets 7 and 12. In Target 7, time lags occur between changes to agriculturalpracticesandreductionofenvironmentalpollutant loads(SpragueandGronberg,2012).InTarget12,timelagsoccur betweenanthropogenicdriversandextinctionoutcomes(Jackson and Sax, 2010). Target 12 is also impeded by insufficient informationflows:interactiveeffectsbetweenmultiple anthro-pogenicdriversimpede identification of whichspecies canbe fairlyconsidered‘‘thosemostindecline’’(JacksonandSax,2010). Bothtimelagsandinsufficientinformationflowsreflectpartial decoupling.

4.3. Green:environmental–socialaxis

Influences from interactions along theenvironmental–social axiswereidentifiedasposingthemajorimpedimenttodeliveryof AichiTargets1,4,9,11,14,16and18.Target1seekstosupport information flows on a ‘‘deficit model’’ of communication that

assumespublicperceptionsoftherisksandbenefitsofbiodiversity loss are rootedin lack of knowledge, and will be changed by additional information (Groffmanet al., 2010). However, many people already have awareness of and information about biodiversity thatis embedded insocio-culturalworldviews and communitycapacity.Uptakeofnewknowledgewillbeimpededif people arenotabletoconnectit withtheir existingknowledge system(Howittetal.,2013).Targets4and14encountermultiple impediments related to how current interactions and power differentialsmarginalisesomepeople.Forexample,exportsdeliver embeddedecosystemservices(e.g.water)todevelopedcountries inecologicallyunequalexchanges(Shandraetal.,2009).Through these types of interactions, rich countries are ableto generate benefitsbasedon2–5timestheglobalpercapitaconsumption, whileeithernotreceivingtheenvironmentalimpactsinexchange, or receivingthem only invery delayedmeans, suchasrefugee movements from water-depleted regions (Ehrlichet al., 2012). Thesedelaysreflectconsiderablesystemdecoupling.Target4also encounters the fundamental issue that the world economy/ populationisgettinglargerinscalethantheplanet’scapacityto supplyservices(Barnoskyetal.,2012).Futuregenerationsarenot representedinanyinteractions,impedingthesystem understand-ingofthelong-termconsequencesofresourcedepletion,againa form of partial decoupling. Restoration efforts in degraded environmentsare impededby war,refugeemovements,lack of infrastructure and unstable governments, which again in part resultfromecologicallyunequalexchangesandpartialdecoupling (Raleigh,2011).

FeedbacksfromimpactsonmarginalisedpeoplesaffectTarget 11particularly,astheexpansion(andeffectiveness)ofprotected areasistriggeringresistanceandongoingparks-peopleconflicts due tothe perceived inequitable distribution of parks globally (Clarketal.,2013;DeSanto,2013;Hill,2011).Forexample, nation-states amongst the lowest Gross Domestic Product per capita globally,includingZimbabweandLiberia,havemorethan15%of theirlandinprotection,whilesomewithveryhighpercapitaGDP, includingAustraliaand Canada,have muchless(McDonaldand Boucher, 2011). The differential targetsfor 10% of coastal and

Table2(Continued)

15. Ecosystems’ resilience and contribuon to carbon enhanced

Incenves necessary to promote restoraon are impeded by the lack of effecve market and instuonal arrangements globally64, 65

; technical challenges in quanfying the relaonship between carbon and restoraon remain; effecve climate migaon measures impeded by the power of carbon-intensive industrial actors and naons66

; fundamental injusces in REDD mechanisms impede their wide uptake67

.

Economic-polical; Issues of seng of market rules, standards, distribuve jusce.

Likely for some

16. Nagoya Protocol enforced

The Nagoya Protocol can be enforced without achieving access and equitable benefit sharing68 as key provider naons’ points including retroacvity, checkpoints, cerficaon and disclosure were not agreed69

; indigenous and local peoples’ consent only required where naon-state recognises their rights.

Environmental-social; Issues of

marginalisaon and rights recognion.

Likely, lile change

17. Naonal Biodiversity Acon Plans implemented

Adopon and implementaon of biodiversity policy is hampered by instuonal fragmentaon, contested interests, lack of effecve parcipatory methods, and diversity of knowledge systems and world views70, 71

; parcipatory implementaon requires parcipatory formulaon which is hampered by resource and capacity constraints.

Social-polical; Issues of legimacy, public confidence, equity.

Not likely

18. Tradional knowledge respected, full parcipaon of indigenous and local communies

Contested construcons of “environment” and deep ontological divides underpinning compeng discourses impede indigenous parcipaon72, 73; actual full and effecve parcipaon impeded by lack of rights-recognion by naon-states, power differenals between local and indigenous peoples and naon-states, elite capture at local levels, ongoing arion of local languages and knowledge systems74-76

.

Environmental-social; Issues of

marginalisaon, cultural diversity.

Likely, lile change

19. Science and knowledge shared

Sharing and applying knowledge is impeded by a “deficit model” of science communicaon77; challenge of negoang boundaries between diverse knowledge systems78, 79

; science viewed as a colonising project with agendas that limit sharing and favour powerful elites80

.

Social-polical; Issues of community capacity, equity.

Likely for some

20. Sufficient finances mobilized

Donor fague, the global economic crisis, compeng aid requirements, are impediments to mobilizing resources81, 82 ; the raising of green capital constutes new threats and new ways of appropriang resources from the poor and marginalized12

.

Economic-polical; Issues of distribuve jusce.

Not likely

a

Table3

GapanalysisbetweentheidentifiedpotentialleveragepointsforactionstoaddresstheimpedimentsandcurrentsactionsintheImplementationDecision,andaxisofinfluence oftheidentifiedgap:redforsocial–economic;blueforenvironmental–economic;greenforenvironmental–social;yellowforsocial–political;orangeforeconomic–political; purpleforenvironmental–political.ColoursoftherowshererepresenttheaxiswherethereisanimplementationgapforthedeliveryofthatTarget,andsoaredifferenttothe coloursoftherowsinTables1and2andS1.a

Tar-get No.

Potenal leverage points for acons to address the impediments Current acons in the Implementaon Decision and clause numbers e.g. 1(e)

Implementaon gap and associated axis of influence

1 Respect peoples’ knowledge and support process of mutual learning about risks and benefits of biodiversity loss5

. Address provisioning services: food security, educaon, poverty reducon; increase socio-economic equity6.

1 (e) enhanced knowledge management, informaon and technologies; (6) Collaboraon with others including UN Develop Prog.

Co-producon of knowledge;

Environmental –social axis

2 Address the technical gap: more effecve indicators11, 12

; transdisciplinary methods and pluralisc frameworks for “biodiversity values”13; ensure the Intergovernmental Plaorm for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) implements a transdisciplinary local-global framework that effecvely includes indigenous and local knowledge14.

1 (f) Support to assess, on a scienfic basis, the ... values of biodiversity

Co-producon of knowledge; Environmental-social axis

3 Include efforts to remove barriers to agricultural trade within an overall equitable food governance approach16, 20. Insert requirements for distribuve jusce and equitable development into biodiversity market arrangements18

. Decouple power from economic interests through increased aenon to gender equity21, 22, non-government organisaons roles19

and social capital23 .

(2) Pares to establish mechanisms to foster full ... parcipaon; previous CBD decision recognises gender acon.

More equitable governance of food systems;

Environmental-social axis

4 Recognise polical ecology of power differenals and support processes that enable power-shiing e.g. social movements that create narraves and discursive frames to mobilize actors in socio-polical change29, 30. Increase the democrazaon of internaonal financial instuons and their harmonizaon with the UN’s biodiversity instuons19, 31

.

Implementaon Decision

refers only to coherence between global biodiversity instuons but Strategic

Plan recognises partnerships.

Mobilisaon of social change to address power differenals; Social-polical axis

5 Promote sustainable consumpon paerns that lower environmental impact32, 37 ; European scenario modelling demonstrates biodiversity loss slowed most by the adopon of more localised food producon and sourcing rather than liberalisaon38

.

Text is silent on consumpon.

Sustainable consumpon; food producon localisaon; Environment-social axis 6 Establish co-governance to re-couple fisheries across jurisdicons42, 43 and to build social

capital, trust and social learning between fishers, managers and sciensts44, 45

; integrate human rights, indigenous claims, adapve capacity and wealth into co-governance46-49

.

(2) Pares to establish mechanisms to foster full...parcipaon; Partnerships recognised in clause 17 in Strategic Plan

Co-governance of natural resources; Environmental-polical axis

7 Support localized food systems that produce food where the hungry live33, 35 ; address distribuonal issues in food security; tailor mixtures of land-sparing, land-sharing, collecve management, agricultural protecon and local-global supply chains to the socio-economic context20, 35, 38, 54

.

Strategic Plan recognises the

need for mainstreaming across all sectors.

More equitable food producon governance; Environmental-social axis

8 Support development of low-cost monitoring technologies for diffuse polluon58 ; provide incenves and regulaons for polluon reducon from farming, urban, industrial systems63

; increase parcipatory soluon-generaon for polluon reducon and social learning to integrate management, address me-lags and bridge knowledge asymmetries64-66.

1 (b) human resource development; 1 (e) enhanced knowledge management.

Co-producon of knowledge; Environmental-social axis

9 Accept some novel ecosystems through co-producing new knowledge about their risks and benefits71

; integrate socio-economic drivers in risk and control priorizaon72 through long-term, flexible funding, and acve public involvement approaches68.

2 Pares to establish mechanisms to foster full ... parcipaon.

Co-producon of knowledge; Environmental social axis

10 Adopt a social-ecological systems approach to risk-assessment and priority seng for management of reefs and other vulnerable ecosystems75, 76

.

1 (e) enhanced knowledge management.

Social-ecological systems approach; All axes

11 Establish naonal Protected Area Negoang Tribunals with indicators, definions, supported negoaons, ability to address legacy issues and overcome power differenals83 and support great equity84

; support the principles of Free Prior and Informed Consent for protected area creaon (and development) in indigenous customary territories85.

2 Pares to establish mechanisms to foster the full and effecve parcipaon of indigenous and local peoples.

Co-governance; Environmental-polical axis

12 Increase focus on linking the charismac and producve species that are valued for their ecosystem services to the non-charismac non-producve species87

; increase focus on socially-designated protecon areas88; develop new financial arrangements e.g. a currency transacon tax to reduce debt and build secondary and terary export sectors 19

.

1 (f) support to assess ... values of biodiversity.

Appropriate financial target and means of implementaon; Economic-polical axis 13 Include Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas (that protect culvated genec

diversity) into the naonal protected area systems88

; support endogenous development that is based on locally conserved biocultural diversity94; strengthen tradional systems

2 Pares to establish mechanisms to foster the full...parcipaon.

marineareas,and17%ofterrestrialandinlandwaterwillfurther skew protected areas to places ‘‘high and far’’ from key development contexts, where they do not opposethe ongoing conversionof habitatforindustrial,urbanand agriculturalland uses (Hillet al., 2015; Joppa and Pfaff, 2009). This differential Target may be impeded by increasing effectiveness of the resistancetoprotectedareaexpansionfromlocalandindigenous peoples,astheyaregaining powerwithintheCBD,forexample through therecognition of the requirementfor free, prior and informedconsentoveractionsintheirterritorialdomains(Carino and Colchester, 2010). However, the global recognition of indigenous and localpeoples’ rights is alsoscaling downwards tosomelower-leveljurisdictionstoenablere-couplingbetween people and natural systems. Recognition of Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas as able to provide biodiversity protectionisenablingpeopletoreturntolandsfromwhichthey wereremovedinthefortressconservationera,andalsosupporting the expansion of protected areas without displacing people (Berkes,2009;HooleandBerkes,2010).Targets16and18 repre-sentcaseswherethelikelihoodofachievabilityreflectsthe low-levelofgoalsetting.TheNagoyaprotocolonlyrequiresconsent arrangementsinplaceswhereindigenousandlocalpeoples’rights arealreadyrecognisedbythenation-state,and thecertification anddisclosurearrangementsarenotconsideredadequatebymany provider nation-states (Kamau et al., 2012). Similarly, the recognitionoftraditionalknowledgeandparticationofindigenous andlocalpeoplesinTarget18islimitedbytherequirementthat thisoccursaccordancewithexistingrecognitionandparticipation measuresofthenation-states.

4.4. Yellow:Social–politicalaxis

Influencesfrominteractionsalongthesocial–politicalaxiswere identified as posingthemajor impediment todelivery of Aichi Targets6,13,17 and19. Target6isimpededbyglobalpolitical arrangements that have masked feedbacks fromthesuccessive depletion of fishstocks byindustrialisedfishing since 1950,as fleetsmovetodifferentfishstocks,aformofpartialdecoupling. Aboutone-third of current fisheries areover-fished (Srinivasan etal.,2012).Policies thatunderpinflowsofresourcesforsocial needsfromdevelopingtodevelopednationsarecharacterisedby higherlevelsofdebtservice,structuraladjustment andprimary sector exports, which are associated with higher levels of environmental degradation in poor nations (Shandra et al., 2010). Target 13 is challenged by the homogenising effects of theflowsfromindustrialfoodsystems,whichinvolvereplacement oflandracesbymoderncultivarsandongoinggeneticerosionin keycentresofdiversity(Dyeretal.,2014).Thetraditionalfarming, collectivepropertyandactionsystemsthatestablishandmaintain biological race varieties lack recognition and power, impeding feedbacksandattemptstoreversegeneticerosion,againaformof partial decoupling (Eyzaguirre and Dennis, 2007). Sovereign resourcerightsandprivateintellectualpropertyrightsdominate overcommunalrightsintheinternationalregimecomplex.Target 17encountersimpedimentsfromthelackofeffectiveparticipatory policyformulationandpoliticalrecognitionofdiverseknowledge systemsandworldviews(Hilletal.,2010).Socialnetworks(both national and transnational) of powerful economic agents, that enjoy influence on governments (and so on institutions and

Table3(Continued)

through applicaon of the Nagoya Protocol and other means of achieving access and benefit-sharing95.

14 Requires an orchestrated global effort to generate sufficient resources to achieve equitable human development between developing and developed naons101

.

Strategic Plan refers to

contribuons to the Millennium Development Goals (MDG).

Appropriate financial target and means of implementaon Economic-polical axis 15 Implement an effecve internaonal carbon migaon agreement with transfers to

compensate developing naons104

; transfer ownership over large forest commons to local communies with payments for improved carbon storage106; enhance local and

instuonal capacies107 .

Implementaon Decision

refers to parcipaon rather than recognion of ownership and rights.

Co-governance; Environmental-polical axis

16 Integrate the Nagoya Protocol into naonal legislaon; connue to mobilise actors to gain sufficient democrac power to negoate for hard-instrument provisions to change naonal legislaon109.

1 (a) support for updang the naonal biodiversity strategies...as effecve instruments.

Mobilisaon of social change to address power differenals; Social-polical axis 17 Implement hybrid adapve governance112

and collaborave partnerships for both policy formulaon and implementaon49, 113

; tailor biodiversity conservaon policy to the local context114 and culture115.

Partnerships and

parcipaon key features of

Implementaon Decision

noted above.

Co-governance; Environmental-polical axis

18 Inclusion of Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas into naonal protected area systems; support indigenous governance and co-governance49, 118

and indigenous driven -planning and knowledge co-creaon84, 120.

As above; Strategic Plan recognises support for

contribuons of knowledge, innovaons and pracces of indigenous and local communies.

Co-governance; Environmental-polical axis

19 Increase the aenon to transdisciplinary methods that bridge science and society in IPBES125

; support the role of NGOs to contest the terms of neoliberal globalisaon to democrase informaon access126.

Partnerships with civil society recognised in

Strategic Plan.

Co-producon of knowledge; mobilisaon of social change;

Social-polical axis 20 Green economy is viewed as the means of financing sustainable development129

but structurally embedded power differenals remain a significant barrier to such a transion29, 30

; global currency transacon tax can raise funds without deepening power differenals

Clauses 4 and 5 of

Implementaon Decision

relate to raising finances through donors and the GEF.

Appropriate financial target and means of implementaon; Economic-polical axis a

policies)andmediathroughavarietyofmechanisms,frequently capture the regulatory agenda, and impede implementation of effectivenational biodiversity strategies (Katic and Kim, 2013; OrsiniandDampagnon,2011).Target19encounterschallengesin negotiating boundaries between diverse knowledge systems (RobinsonandWallington,2012).

4.5. Orange:Economic–political

Influencesfrominteractionsalongtheeconomic–politicalaxis wereidentified asposing themajor impediment todelivery of Targets3,8,15and20.Target3encountersthemultipleeconomic distortionsintheglobalpoliticalarrangementsfortrade,typically marketrulesthatprotectsubsidiesfordeveloped-worldfarmers, fishersand forestersand urbanconsumers (Moon, 2011). New marketmechanismsthat‘‘enclose’’landandnaturalresourcesin manycasesendupdispossessingthepoorratherthanpreventing biodiversityloss,aslackofpoliticalrecognitionoftherightsofthe poor prevents feedbacks, again a form of partial decoupling (Fairheadetal.,2012).Target8isimpededbydampenedfeedback, forexampletimelagsbetweenmarketmechanismsandreduction ofenvironmentalpollutantloads(SpragueandGronberg,2012).

Target15encountersthepowerdifferentialbetween carbon-intensive industrial actors and global arrangements for rule-settingdriventhroughtheUnitedNations,sothatproposedpolicy initiativesto addresscurrent environmental feedbacks, suchas displacementofpeopleonsmallislandnationsthroughsealevel rise, are suppressed in global negotiations, and effectively decoupled from their intended impacts (Mathys and de Melo, 2011).Target20encountersimpedimentsfromtheeconomicand geopoliticalpowerdifferentialsthatunderpintheglobaleconomic crisis and competing aid requirements so that even existing, inadequate,commitmentstocontributionsarenotmet,without punitive consequences. Meanwhile, the proposed solution of raisinggreen capital constitutes newthreats and new waysof appropriatingresourcesfromthepoorandmarginalised,further decoupling the connection between benefits in the developed worldandimpactsinthedevelopingworld(Fairheadetal.,2012).

4.6. Purple:environmental–political

Influencesfrominteractionsalongthe environmental–politi-calaxiswereidentifiedasposingthemajorimpedimenttothe delivery of Targets5 and10. Target 5is affectedby impeded information flows from conflicting evidence about whether agricultural-intensification (land-sparing) or agro-ecological matrix(land-sharing)offerthebestapproachesforfoodsecurity andbiodiversityconservationand,therefore,about howtoset context-relevantenvironmentalstandardsthatbalancetherisks andbenefitsofbiodiversityloss (Hilletal.,2015;Ramankutty andRhemtulla,2013).Target10isalsoimpededbyinformation flowsthatfeedpublicscepticismaboutclimatechangeimpacts, related more to cultural diversity and belief systems (e.g. conspiracy theories) than scientific uncertainty (Smith and Leiserowitz, 2012). Climate awareness enhances adaptive capacity and the supply of environmental standards is nega-tivelyaffectedbytheabsenceofrelevantinformation(Marshall etal.,2013).

5. Leveragepointsforgeneratingpotentiallymoreeffective pathwaysfortheconservationofbiodiversity

Our analysishasidentifiedthatmanyoftheimpedimentsto deliveryoftheAichiTargetsarisefromimpededinformationflows, delayedfeedbacksandotherformsofpartialdecoupling,suchas betweenbenefitsdeliveredfrombiodiversitychangeinconsumer

nations,andimpactsonecosystemservicesinproducernations. Weidentifiedmultipleleveragepoints,andtheassociatedaxisof influence,whereinterventionscouldhelpshiftthesystemtowards potentially more effective pathways for the conservation of biodiversity (Table 3, column 2). We compared our identified leverage points with the actions within the Implementation Decision (full text in Table S2), to highlight gaps where new actionscouldgeneratechange(Table3,column3).Wefoundthat thereisnotalwaysadirectcorrespondencebetweentheaxisof impedimenttoachievingatarget,andtheaxisofinterventionto overcomethisimpediment;sometimestheleveragetomovean impedimentcomesfromadifferentaxis.Asaresult,twoaxesare absent in Table 3. No leverage points that would remove impediments to any of the Aichi Targets were identified along thesocial–economic(red)axis.Incontrast,manyleveragepoints wereidentifiedalongtheeconomic–environmental(blue)axis,but werefoundtobealreadywellrepresentedintheImplementation Decision.LeveragepointswheregapsexistwiththeImplementation Decision, and where actions could generate potentially more effectivepathwaysforconservationofbiodiversity,wereidentified alongfouraxes:

Greenenvironmental–socialinteractionswhereco-productionof knowledge and more equitable food systems governance are potentialleveragepointstogeneratemoreeffectiveinformation flows.

Yellow social–political interactions where support for social change movements is a potential leverage point for shifting powerimbalancesthatdampensystemfeedbacks.

Orange economic–political interactions where an appropriate financialtargetforbiodiversityconservationinvestmentanda clear means for its implementation (such as a currency transaction tax) is a potential leverage point towards more effectivepolitical structuringand connectionswith economic interactions.

Purple environmental–political interactions where co-gover-nance of natural resources is a potential leverage point for structuringmoreeffectivefeedbacksfromtheenvironmentto policyinterventions.

5.1. Greenenvironmental–socialinteractions:co-productionof knowledgeandmoreequitablefoodsystemsgovernance

More equitablefood systems governanceis critical to over-coming the impediments posed by ecologically unequal exchanges,asdiscussedinSection4.3.Supportforlocalisedfood systems that produce food where the hungry live could help addresssuchdistributional injustice.Improvementsin informa-tion flows about food supplies are also a leverage point. For example,therecentNigerfood crisisisarguedtohave resulted morefrominstitutional failurethat impeded information flows thanfromlackoffoodproduction(Juhola,2012).Mechanismsto allowagreementamongststakeholdersabouttheseverityofthe situation,toincorporatefarmers’knowledgeandtrigger(free)food distributionoutsidethemarketarrangementshavebeenidentified asfoodsystemsgovernanceinterventionsthat couldhelpavoid futurefamines,andrepresentimprovementsinsystemcoupling (Juhola,2012).Requirementsfordistributivejusticeandequitable developmentcouldbeinsertedintoexistingagriculturalmarket andemergingbiodiversitymarketarrangements,overcomingthe barriersthatcurrentlyblockfeedbackstoconsumernationsfrom the producer nations about environmental and social costs of production(Fairheadetal.,2012).Transferofownershipoverlarge forestcommonstolocalcommunitiescombinedwithpayments forimprovedcarbonstoragecouldalsoremovecurrentblockages tofeedbacksfromecologicallyunfairexchanges,whilstcontinuing to generate biodiversity conservation outcomes (Chhatre and Agrawal,2009).

5.2. Yellowsocial–politicalinteractions:supportforsocialchange movements.

Leveragepointsalongthesocial–politicalaxiscanhelpremove impedimentstoTargets4,16and19.Therelativepowerlessness andmarginalisationofmanysocialactorsinthedevelopingworld resultsinmany biodiversityconservationchallenges:structural adjustment packages associated with environmental damage; inability to protect biodiversity through traditional farming systemsandcorporatecaptureofregulatoryinstruments(Section 4.4).Promotingprocessesthatenableempowermentand power-shifting offers a leverage point to strengthen feedbacks. Social movements that create narratives and discursive frames to mobilise actorscan move biodiversity as anissue into a more powerfulgovernancecontext(Hilletal.,2013).Non-government organisations are key actors that can contest the terms of neoliberal globalisation; comparative analysis has shown that higherlevelsofnon-governmentorganisationsareassociatedwith lowernumbersofthreatenedmammalsandbirds(Shandraetal., 2010).Supportingnetworklinkers,includingsocialentrepreneurs and leaders, and information-flow processes including shared visions,learningplatforms,bridgingandboundaryorganisations, canstrengthencouplingbetweenvarioussystemcomponentsand helpshiftstowardsadaptiveinstitutionswiththepotentialtosolve theproblemofbiodiversitydecline(BoydandFolke,2012).Social movements’ current mobilisationaround greaterrecognition of commonpropertyrights,greaterdemocratisation,andopposition tounfetteredtradeprovidepotentialleveragepointsforanumber ofsystemimpediments.Greaterdemocratisationcouldaidpower shiftingandmobilisefeedbackstoleverageinstitutional adapta-tion(KimandMackey,2014).

Inclusion of hard-instrument regulatory provisions into the CBDmechanismsisapotentialpathwaytowardsequalisingpower differentialsbetweentheinternationalconservation,development andfinanceinstrumentswhichcurrentlymasksfeedbackssuchas thosefrom climatechangeimpacts andinfrastructure develop-ment(BoisvertandVivien,2012;Lauranceetal.,2015).TheWorld Trade Organization (WTO) and Agreements have enforceable powers,forexampleforbreachingrulesoftheWTO,whereasAichi Targetshavenopenaltyimposedforfailure(Jo´hannsdo´ttiretal.,

2010).TradeAgreementscouldbemodifiedtoallownation-states toputbiodiversitybeforefreetrade,whentheydeemitnecessary, andremove thepowerofcorporations tosuegovernmentsthat implementlegislationthatenhancesbiodiversityprotection.More generally,criteriabasedonsocial,economic,and environmental sustainabilitygoalsshouldbeusedforredesigningandapplying multilateraltraderules.TheNagoyaProtocolcouldbe strength-ened throughvoluntaryapplication (regardless ofstatus in the nation-state’sformalinstitutions)whilenegotiationscontinuefor hard-instrumentprovisionsthatwillrequirechangesinnational legislationandgreaterrecognitionofindigenousandlocalpeoples’ rights,againovercomingimpedimentstofeedbacks,and strength-eningsystemcoupling(OberthuerandPozarowska,2013).

5.3. Orangeeconomic–politicalinteractions:improvedfoodsystems governanceandaninternationalcurrencytransactiontax

Leverage points along the economic–political axis can help remove impediments to Targets 12, 14 and 20. Raising an appropriateleveloffinancialresourcestoimplementactionsfor conservationofbiodiversitywasidentifiedasakeyleveragepoint toovercomeimpedimentstoseveraltargets,andakeygapinthe currentplans(Table3).While Target20 recognisestheneedto increase resources, a specific target detailing the amount of finances necessary is absent. Specific financial targets now accompanydevelopment plans;forexampletheG20nations in 2014 committedtoinvestUS$60–70trillion worldwide innew infrastructureby 2030,therebymorethandoublingthecurrent value of global infrastructure (Laurance et al., 2015). Similar commitmenttoaclearfinancialtargetforbiodiversity conserva-tion investment,withameansfor itsimplementation, is a key leveragepointforovercomingthecurrentfinancialimpediments. The financialchallengeoffundingAichi Targets’ deliveryhas beenestimatedat$76.1billionannually(McCarthyetal.,2012).An internationalcurrencytaxof0.005percentwouldyieldaround$40 billionannually,andsupportforthisatanappropriatelevel(e.g. .02) to fund global human development and sustainability concurrentlyisgrowing(Klugmanetal.,2011).Thistaxcanalso re-coupletheeconomicactivitiesofglobalcorporationswiththe politicalsystem,currentlydecoupledasmanycorporationsappear abletopaylittletaxbyoperatingacrossdiversenation-statetax regimes. Other funding mechanisms relevant to biodiversity conservation,suchastheCleanDevelopmentMechanism,REDD+, and debt relief for poor countries, do not display these characteristics (i.e.clearfinancial targetwithmeansfor imple-mentation, stimulating recoupling)but areworthy of consider-ation(IMF,2014;SchroederandMcDermott,2014;UNFCC,2014). Nevertheless,thetaxwouldallowresourcestobechannelledfrom richer to poorer contexts without the debt and structural adjustmentarrangementsthathavebeenshowntobeassociated with higher numbers of threatened mammals and birds and without the governance, rights and tenure contests that have challengedREDD+andtheCDM(SchroederandMcDermott,2014; Shandraetal.,2010).

5.4. Purpleenvironment–political:co-governanceofnatural resources

jurisdictionsarerecognisedasameanstobuildsocialcapital,trust and social learning between fishers, managers and scientists, leadingtomoreeffectiveresourcemanagement(Fidelmanetal., 2012). Tailoring biodiversity conservation policy to the local contextandculturebuildssocialsupport,andcouldbeameansto negotiate context-specific mixtures of land-sparing and land-sharing(RamankuttyandRhemtulla,2013;Waylenetal.,2010). Anincreasedfocusonsociallydesignatedprotectedareas,with co-governancearrangements,suchasCommunityConservedAreas, helps overcome resistance to expansion of the protected area estateassociatedwithfeedbacksfromthosewhoseterritoriesare affected(Daviesetal.,2013).AdheringtoFreePriorandInformed Consentinindigenouscustomaryterritoriesandaddressinglegacy issues resulting from a history of forced evictions are also highlightedasusefulmechanisms forovercomingimpediments toprotectedareaexpansion(Hill,2011).

6. Conclusion

Ourapplicationofsocial–ecologicalsystems(SES)analysishas provided insight into diverse system interactions that pose impedimentstotheAichi Targets,many ofwhich arerelated to partialdecouplingbetweenSEScomponents.TheGlobal Biodiver-sityOutlook4(GBO-4),whichprovidesamid-termassessmentof progresstowardsimplementationoftheAichiTargets,wasreleased whilethispaperwasinreview(Leadleyetal.,2014;Secretariatof the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2014; Tittensor et al., 2014).GBO-4foundthat18ofthe20AichiTargetsaretrackingin accordancewithouranalysis(Table4).OnlyTarget16isfullyon tracktobe achieved;our analysisidentified that this Target is likely to be achieved in full because the conditionality of the NagoyaProtocolmeansthatitcanbeachievedwithlittlechange. A further mid-term analysisof progresstowardsthe targets using55indicatordatasets,alsopublishedwhilethispaperwas underreview,foundthatrecognitionofthebiodiversitycrisisis increasing,andgrowingeffortsarebeingmadetoaddressit,but theseeffortsappearunlikelytoresultinanimprovementofthe basestateofbiodiversityby2020(Leadleyetal.,2014;Tittensor etal.,2014).Thisprojectedaccelerationofsocietalactions,without changeinbiodiversityconditions,isrecognisedaspossiblydueto time lags, or alternatively to inappropriate or insufficient responsesrelativetothepressures(Tittensoretal.,2014).

In response to thelack of progressshown in themid-term analysis,Tittensoret al.(2014) recommend‘‘efforts needtobe redoubled’’(p.244),whilealsonotingthecurrenteffortsmaybe inappropriately directed and discussing the potential need to considertheimpactoftimelags.Marquesetal.(2014)arguethat thepoorprogressmeansthatprioritisationofactionswithinthe currentplansisnow critical.KokandAlkemade(2014) present details of relevant priority actions across food and wood production,waterandfisheriesmanagement,andin mainstream-ing biodiversity. The analysis here presents a complementary option:ratherthanjustprioritisingamongexistingactions,wecan focusonnewareasofaction.Ouranalysishighlightsnewleverage points, currently not within the global biodiversity plans and policies,whichcangeneratepotentiallymoreeffectivepathways fortheconservationofbiodiversity.

The gap analysis showed that the current Implementation Decision focuses on the economic–environmental axis, perhaps reflectingtheinfluenceofmarket-basedsolutions,andinitiatives such as The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB, 2009).However,interventionson thisaxishavelittleimpacton key impediments associated with the context of marginalised peoples,issuesofdistributivejusticeandequity,andentrenched global power inequities. Interventions along environmental– social, social–political, economic–political, and environmental– politicalhavethepotentialtoinfluencepathwaysthatovercome thesesortsofimpediments(Table3).

Many of oursuggestedactions togeneratepotentially more effectivepathwaysfortheconservationofbiodiversityalignwith theemergingconceptof adaptiveinstitutionsforsustainability, withitsemphasisonmulti-levelco-governance,entrepreneurial activism to lead change, networks and cross-scale learning to overcome obstacles to adaptation arising from overly rigid institutional and cultural frameworks (Boyd and Folke, 2012). Theexpansionoftheglobalhumanecologicalfootprintisinducing the growth of socio-environmental conflicts worldwide, but particularlyin regions withecologically vulnerableecosystems, intensivehumanoccupationandhighlevelsofsocialorganisation. On the other hand, social movements of resistance are able, sometimes, to stop, or at least delay, the expansion of the extractionfrontier, andtore-drawitslimits.Inthis context,an increasing number of communities are reacting, searching for informationand experiences.Stimulatingactionsthatrecognise

Table4

TheassessmentoflikelihoodofdeliveryofeachtargetfromthisanalysiscomparedwiththefindingsofGlobalBiodiversityOutlook4(Leadleyetal.,2014;Secretariatofthe ConventiononBiologicalDiversity,2014;Tittensoretal.,2014).

Target# Focusoftarget Ourassessmentofachievability GBO-4findings

1. Peoplemoreawareofbiodiversityvalues Notlikely Notontrack

2. Biodiversityintegratedintodevelopment Notlikely Notontrack

3. Perverseincentivesandsubsidiesremoved Notlikely Notontrack

4. Sustainableproductionandconsumption Notlikely Notontrack

5. Rateoflossofnaturalhabitatshalved Notlikely Notontrack

6. Sustainableharvestsoffisheries Notlikely Notontrack

7. Sustainableagriculture,aquacultureandforestry Notlikely Notontrack

8. Pollutionbroughttosafelevels. Notlikely Notontrack

9. Invasivespeciescontrol Notlikely Notontrack

10. Climateimpactsonbiodiversityminimised Notlikely Notontrack

11. Protectedareascover17%ofterrestrial,inlandwater;10%ofcoastalandmarine Likely Ontracktomeet17%,noton trackotherwise

12. Extinctionsofthreatenedspeciesprevented Notlikely Notontrack

13. Geneticdiversityofcultivatedbiotamaintained Notlikely Notontrack

14. Ecosystemservicesrestoredandsafeguarded Notlikely Notontrack

15. Ecosystems’resilienceandcontributiontocarbonstorageenhanced. Likelyforsome Notontrack

16. NagoyaProtocolenforced. Likely,littlechange Ontrack.

17. NationalBiodiversityActionPlansimplemented. Notlikely Notontrack

18. Traditionalknowledgerespected,fullparticipationofpeoples. Likely,littlechange Notontrack

19. Scienceandknowledgeshared Likelyforsome Ontrackononeoftwoindicators

and support this challenge to the current trajectory may help globalcivilisationtobreakoutofthepatternwhereinstitutions constrainbehaviours,whichinturnpreventinstitutionalchange towardssustainability(Fischeretal.,2012).

OurSESanalysisprovidessomesupportforRaudseep-Hearne etal.’s(2010)contentionthatpartialdecouplingintheglobalSES may explain why human well-being increases as ecosystem services decline, termed the ‘‘environmentalists’ paradox’’. For example, the global political arrangements that have masked feedbacks from the successive depletion of fish stocks by industrialisedfishingsince1950,asfleetsmovetodifferentfish stocks,aformofpartialdecoupling,maycontributetohuman well-beingincreasingasbiodiversitydeclines(Srinivasanetal.,2012). Similarly,humanwell-beingmayberaisedthroughexportsthat deliverembedded ecosystemservices(e.g. water)todeveloped countries in ecologically unequal exchanges, whereby recipient countriesraisethepercapitaconsumptionofmany,andprovider countries receive the environmental impacts in exchange, in regionswithlowerhumanpopulation densities(Shandraetal., 2009).Furtherattentiontomulti-dimensionalaspectsofsystem interactions,couplingandde-couplingmayexplainwhyhuman well-beingincreaseswhileecosystemservicesdecline.

The insights from this SES analysis into the interactions betweenhumansocialsystemsandtheenvironmenthaveassisted inunderstandingimpedimentsandleveragepointswhere inter-ventionscouldpotentially assisttoachieve theAichiTargetsby 2020,andsetmoreeffectivepathwaysforlonger-term conserva-tionofbiodiversity.Wearguethatfurtherscientificattentionto the interactions and dynamics associated with biodiversity in social–ecologicalsystemsiscriticaltomovebeyondanalysingand measuring the problem towards the generation of realistic context-specific pathways towards halting biodiversity loss. New actionsare urgent toreversethe current trajectoriesthat showtheAichiTargetsareunlikelytobedelivered by2020and biodiversityconditioncontinuetotrenddownwards.

Acknowledgements

Thisresearchwassupported bybothAustralianandScottish Governments and research institutions. We acknowledge and thank CSIRO’s former Building Resilient Australian Biodiversity AssetsThemeandSocialandEconomicSciencesProgramsandthe currentLandandWaterFlagship;andtheTropicalEcosystemsHub oftheAustralianGovernment’sNationalEnvironmentalResearch Program for their invaluable support. We also thank and acknowledgetheJamesHuttonInstituteandtheScottish Govern-ment Rural Affairs and the Environment Portfolio Strategic Research Programme 2011–2016, Theme 1 (Environmental Change: Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity) for their fine contributionsandsupport.WeacknowledgetheassistanceofDr KerryWaylenandDrKatrinPragertothedevelopmentofideasin thepaper.WethankDrAndySheppardandDrTabathaWallington andthreeanonymousreviewersfortheirinvaluablecommentson earlierdrafts.

AppendixA. Supplementarydata

Supplementarydataassociatedwiththisarticlecanbefound,in theonlineversion,atdoi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.005.

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