Working Paper January 2012
Does Earning an Associate Degree Lead to Better Baccalaureate
Outcomes for Transfer Students?
David
Crook
<
david.crook@mail.cuny.edu
>
Colin
C.
Chellman
<
colin.chellman@mail.cuny.edu
>
Aleksandra
Holod
<
aleksandra.holod@mail.cuny.edu
>
Office of Policy Research
The City University of New York
CUNY OFFICE OF POLICY RESEARCH
4555 West 57th St., Suite 1240
New York, NY 10019
© by CUNY Office of Policy Research. All rights reserved. Do not quote without permission of the
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Does Earning an Associate Degree Lead to Better Baccalaureate
Outcomes for Transfer Students?
David Crook, Colin C. Chellman, and Aleksandra Holod
City University of New York
Existing research does not consistently support the notion that articulation policies increase rates of student transfer. Using data from a cohort of students who transferred within the City University of New York (CUNY) system, we examine associations between associate degree attainment and post-transfer baccalaureate outcomes. We find that earning an AA or AS degree -- holding constant the number of credits earned -- is associated with a 6.9% increase in the probability of attaining a baccalaureate degree, an effect similar in magnitude to the average effect of an additional semester of full-time coursework. Results suggest differences between the AA/AS and the AAS degree in the value both of the degree itself and pre-transfer credits completed. These associations may be due peculiarities in CUNY transfer policies, although further research is needed to determine causality.
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Articulation policies designed to facilitate the transfer process for students who wish to
transfer from a 2-year community college to a 4-year university have proliferated in recent years
(Smith, 2010). Articulation policies include statewide legislation compelling community
colleges and universities to develop a process for the transfer of lower division coursework, and
the development of a “common core” that guarantees the ability to transfer general education
coursework. Statewide transfer policies often guarantee students junior status if they complete
an associate degree prior to transfer to a public four-year institution within the same state. In
addition to placing value on the associate degree credential, many policies aim to increase the
portability of credits.
Existing research does not consistently support the notion that transfer policies increase
community college student transfer rates. However, there have been few studies examining the
influence of articulation policies on student performance after transfer. This paper analyzes
baccalaureate attainment among transfer students at the City University of New York (CUNY), a
public university system that enrolls over 250,000 students per year. We explore the value of
earning an associate degree prior to transfer as well as the value of credits earned at the
community college, while considering differences in transfer policy for students who transfer
with and without an associate degree. We also distinguish between students who originate in
programs granting Associate in Arts or Science (AA/AS) degrees versus students from more
vocationally oriented Associate in Applied Science (AAS) programs.
Literature Review
Community College Experiences and Baccalaureate Attainment
Research has identified several aspects of students’ community college experience that are
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associated with persistence after transfer and is consistently one of the strongest predictors of
baccalaureate completion (Bailey & Weininger, 2002; Crook & Lavin, 1989; Wang, 2009). The
number of credits students earn in community college also appears to be important. For
example, one study found that students who earn more than 48 credits are 15 times more likely to
transfer, and students who earn an associate degree are 40 times more likely to transfer, as
compared students who do not achieve these benchmarks (Roksa & Calcagno, 2010). Earning a
greater number of credits prior to transfer is also associated with an increased likelihood of
earning a baccalaureate for community college transfer students (Koker & Hendel, 2003).
Furthermore, the number of credits that are accepted at transfer is associated with student success rates. Eighty-two percent of students who had all of their credits accepted at transfer
graduated within six years, as compared to 42% of students who were unable to transfer all of
their credits, according to one descriptive analysis (Doyle, 2006).
Given that earning and transferring a greater number of credits is associated with higher rates
of baccalaureate attainment, we would expect that earning an associate degree may also be
associated with a greater likelihood of bachelor degree completion, particularly if transfer
policies reward associate degree completion. However, there is little evidence to support this
hypothesis. One study testing a new accountability method for New York State colleges did not
find an association between associate attainment and the likelihood of earning a baccalaureate
after transfer (Ehrenberg and Smith, 2004). Similarly, a study comparing outcomes of immigrant
and native students in the City University of New York system found that receiving an associate
degree prior to transfer was not significantly related to completing a baccalaureate (Bailey &
Weininger, 2002). A national study conducted by the American Council on Education in the
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credits, despite the fact that only a third of students earned an associate degree before
transferring (Palmer, Ludwig, & Stapleton, 1994).
Transfer Policies: Background and Evidence of Effects
Many states have legislated transfer policies during the last several decades, based on the
belief that statewide policies would be more effective at facilitating transfer than articulation
agreements negotiated at lower levels within the higher education system (Anderson, Sun, &
Alfonso, 2006). Today, 36 states have instituted statewide transfer policies (Smith, 2010), and
28.9% of students at 2-year community colleges transfer to four-year colleges (NCES, 2003).
Given the prevalence of transfer policies and the number of students who are subject to them,
surprisingly few empirical studies have examined the effects of these policies. The limited
research available on transfer policies is often descriptive in nature, although a few studies have
investigated the association between transfer policies and transfer rates, and the effect of transfer
policies on transfer student degree attainment.
Descriptive studies catalogue existing policies and their features (e.g. Smith, 2010; Ignash &
Townsend, 2001). For example, Ignash and Townsend (2001) developed a system for
classifying the strength of a state’s transfer policy based on its components. In order to be
classified as a “strong” transfer policy, Ignash and Townsend (2001) suggest the policy must
cover a large proportion of a state’s students and all types of vertical and lateral transfer. The
policy should cover students earning different types of associate degrees, streamline both general
education and major requirements, and encourage common course numbering. Faculty must
have been involved in the creation of the policy. Finally, the policy must have been evaluated
based on statewide data (Ignash and Townsend, 2001). More recently, the Education
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provide students with a written guide to transfer policy, 34 have a common core, 22 provide
students with incentives to transfer, and 17 employ common course numbering. Many of these
policies aim to increase the portability of credits. For example, common core policies simplify
the articulation process by specifying in advance which courses will satisfy graduation
requirements after transfer. Other policies guarantee transfer of all coursework for students who
complete an associate degree.
Several studies have also investigated whether transfer policies increase rates of transfer from
2-year colleges to 4-year colleges, with mixed results (e.g. Anderson et al., 2006; Banks, 1992;
Gross & Goldhaber, 2009; Higgins & Katsinas, 1999). Studies conducted using student-level
data find that transfer policies have no effects. For example, using data from the Beginning
Postsecondary Study, Anderson et al. (2006) find no significant effect of statewide transfer
policies on community college students’ likelihood of transfer, even among students who
initially aspired to a baccalaureate degree. Gross and Goldhaber (2009) also find no association
between the existence of a statewide transfer policy and students’ chances of transfer, even after
accounting for the strength of the state transfer policies using the Ignash and Townsend (2001)
typology. Gross & Goldhaber (2009) also examine specific policy components, such as
automatic transfer of associate degrees and common course numbering. None of the policy
components significantly predicted students’ likelihood of transfer, and several had negative
coefficients. However, as pointed out by Roksa (2009), studies using institution-level data find
that formalized transfer and articulation policies are associated with higher rates of student
transfer (e.g. Banks, 1992; Higgins & Katsinas, 1999).
Existing research does not consistently support the notion that transfer policies increase
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assumption that students are aware of and understand transfer policies - an assumption unlikely
to be true. A recent survey of students in Florida indicated that nearly 70% of students - students
who had earned an associate degree but did not plan to apply to a state university - either were
not aware of the state articulation policy or did not understand its provisions (OPPAGA, 2010).
Therefore, it may be more fruitful to look for effects of transfer policies on student attainment
after transfer. As Roksa and Keith (2008) have suggested, the primary purpose of transfer
policies may be to facilitate degree progress for students who choose to transfer, rather than to
increase transfer rates. They find that transfer students in states with formalized transfer policies
take as much time to complete the bachelor’s degree and earn as many total credits (and
sometimes more) en route to the degree as students in states with no such policies (Roksa and Keith, 2008). However, further research in this area is needed. Most previous research has
examined the effects of transfer policy on transfer rates; a focus on degree progress following
transfer is relatively new in the literature. Additionally, greater attention should be given to the
effects of specific elementsof transfer policies on student outcomes after transfer. These
specific elements include the extent to which transfer policies increase the portability of credits
as well as the value of an associate degree itself. Nor has previous work examined differences in
outcomes by type of associate degree, even though transfer policies often vary for students who
transfer from occupationally oriented degree programs.
The Current Study
We add to the research base with a university system-specific study, conducted using data
from CUNY. We focus on the relationships between associate degree attainment and
post-transfer baccalaureate outcomes, keeping in mind potential variations in the implementation of
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associate degree program pursued. The system-wide articulation policy at CUNY distinguishes
between students who hold associate degrees at the time of transfer and those who do not, which
-- as described further below -- allows us to disentangle the value of community college
coursework and the value of earning an associate degree en route to a baccalaureate degree.
Furthermore, CUNY policy differs for students who transfer from AA/AS programs versus AAS
programs. Our large institution-level dataset includes detailed information on students’
academic trajectories during high school and early college, thereby allowing us to control for a
variety of potential confounding factors. Our study provides a preliminary examination, albeit
not a causal analysis, of associations between transfer policy and baccalaureate attainment. Our
research questions are as follows.
Research question 1: Are community college students who earn an associate degree prior to transfer more likely to complete a baccalaureate than transfer students who
complete a comparable number of credits but do not earn the associate? We expect that
students who earn the associate degree prior to transfer will have a higher probability of
graduating within four years of entry to the baccalaureate program than students who do not earn
the associate degree, because under a university-wide transfer policy, certain degree completers
are deemed to have fulfilled all general education requirements for the baccalaureate. That is,
students who complete an AA or AS degree are guaranteed junior status when they transfer to a
senior college within the CUNY system. For students who do not receive a degree, CUNY’s
transfer policies are less robust. Therefore, students who transfer prior to completion of the AA
or AS degree must undergo transcript review to determine which liberal arts courses will satisfy
8
Research question 2: Does the “credential effect” differ for students who have earned
different types of associate degrees? CUNY grants the AA, the AS, and the AAS degrees. We
hypothesize that the credential effect may be greater for the AA and AS degree than for the AAS,
because the University’s transfer policy is more generous for the former. Under CUNY Board of
Trustees policy, recipients of the AA or AS are deemed to have fulfilled all lower-division liberal
arts and science distribution requirements for the baccalaureate degree. Recipients of the
vocationally oriented AAS, on the other hand, are not credited with completion of general
education requirements. Instead, University policy specifies that only a subset of courses
transfer - those in the liberal arts and sciences - may transfer, and only if these courses can be
applied to discipline-specific general education requirements in the bachelors program.
Research question 3: Should students who intend to transfer without an associate degree do so quickly or after earning a critical mass of community college credits? That is,
how valuable are credits earned prior to transfer? We expect to find a positive relationship
between credits completed in the associate program and the probability of earning the
baccalaureate degree for students who transfer without the associate degree, because CUNY
policy supports transfer of credits earned in the associate program. However, we also expect to
find a diminishing return to credits earned in the community colleges. University policy
guarantees transfer of liberal arts courses either for general education or elective credit, but not
the transferability of upper division courses and courses in the major. Because students pursuing
the associate degree tend to take a higher concentration of major courses later in their career, we
expect that students presenting higher credit totals for transfer will receive less benefit from
those credits, with regard to baccalaureate completion. In addition, CUNY’s four-year colleges
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Research question 4: Is the “credit effect” moderated by the type of associate program
a student transfers from? We hypothesize that credits earned in AA and ASprograms will be
associated with a greater increase in the likelihood of baccalaureate completion than credits
earned in the AAS programs. As previously mentioned, the University’s transfer policy stipulates
the portability of liberal arts and science courses for transfer students who do not complete an
associate degree. Because many of the credits earned in AAS programs are specific to the major
rather than in liberal arts courses, they are less likely to transfer. Consequently we expect to
find a lower baccalaureate pay off for credits earned en route to the AAS than for AA and AS
credits.
Data and Methods Data
Drawing on data from the CUNY institutional research database, we examine a cohort of
students who transferred from a CUNY associate program to a CUNY baccalaureate program
during the 2003-2004 academic year (N=4,549). This longitudinal dataset allows us to track
students’ progress through the baccalaureate program over a 4-year period after transfer and
account for performance in the associate program. The dataset also includes information on
students’ demographic characteristics, high school performance, early college performance and
enrollment status.
Descriptive statistics for the sample are displayed in Table 1. Nearly two-thirds of students
in the sample entered their baccalaureate program without an associate degree, a rate similar to
the national rate reported by NCES (2003). Those students who completed an associate degree
prior to transfer were generally more disadvantaged than students who did not complete a degree
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indicated by Pell grant receipt), less likely to have a college-educated parent. On the other hand,
they were more likely to have earned a GED (as opposed to a high school diploma), and they
earned lower scores on New York’s standardized high school exit exams in English and
mathematics (the Regents Examinations). On average, they also earned more credits prior to
transfer (65 vs. 48, p<.001).
Measures
Our independent variables of interest are a dichotomous variable indicating whether the
student earned an associate degree prior to transferring into a baccalaureate program, a
standardized measure of the number of credits accumulated in the associate program prior to
transfer, and the number of credits squared to capture a potential nonlinear relationship between
credits earned and graduation. Our outcome variable is an indicator variable for graduation
within four years of matriculation into a baccalaureate program. We control for a wide range of
background characteristics, including demographic characteristics, high school background, and
early college performance and attendance. Demographic characteristics include gender, race,
age, citizenship status, parental education, and residence in New York City. We also include
Pell grant receipt as a proxy for income, following a precedent set in previous research (e.g.
Murashkin, Lee, Wilner, & Swail, 2004; Engle & O’Brien, 2008). High school background
variables include whether the student earned a GED as opposed to a high school diploma and
Regents English and math scores.
We also control for early performance and attendance in the community college, including
initial proficiency in reading, writing, and math, i.e. “exempt from remediation”; participation in
CUNY’s higher education opportunity program for disadvantaged students called College
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fall term; full-time attendance in the baccalaureate program; and cohort year of entry into the
associate program. We standardize all continuous control variables, except for student age, to
allow for easier comparison of the relative magnitude of their effects.
Analytic Approach
To examine our first research question regarding the association between earning the
associate degree and the likelihood of completing a baccalaureate degree (the “credential
effect”), we regress the baccalaureate graduation indicator on the dichotomous variable for
receipt of the associate degree before transfer for the full sample, controlling for number of
credits earned. To test whether there is a moderating effect by type of associate degree program,
we then repeat our analysis for students who initially enrolled in an AA or AS program, and for
students who initially enrolled in an AAS program. Note that we restrict the sample to students
who have transferred. We do not attempt to predict transfer itself.
To test our second set of research questions regarding the value of credits earned, we limit
our sample to students who did not complete an associate degree prior to transfer and regress the
baccalaureate completion indicator on credits earned at transfer (z-score) and credits squared. We initially test this model for all students who transferred without an associate degree. Then, to
see if the value of credits earned prior to transfer varies by degree program, we run our models
on subgroups defined by the type of associate degree pursued prior to transfer.
To do this, we use probit regression techniques for all analyses and report marginal effects
calculated with covariates held constant at their means. All models are estimated using robust
standard errors to calculate p-values to account for the non-independence of the observations
posed by student clustering within senior colleges. We also include fixed effects to partially
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missing values on our independent variables with zeros and include indicator variables to denote
missing data.
Results
Examining the full sample, we do not find evidence for our first hypothesis: Earning the
associate degree does not appear to be positively related to baccalaureate degree completion
within four years after transfer into a baccalaureate degree program. As illustrated by Table 2,
students who earned the associate degree prior to transfer were 3.4% more likely to graduate
within four years as compared to transfer students who did not earn the associate degree, but this
effect does not achieve statistical significance (table 2, equation 1).
Several other variables in our model have much larger estimated associations with the
probability of completing the baccalaureate degree than the credential effect. For example,
students who attended their four-year college full-time were estimated to be 24% more likely to
complete their baccalaureate. A one standard deviation increase in GPA prior to transfer (0.79)
was associated with a 14.7% greater likelihood of baccalaureate degree completion. In addition,
a one standard deviation increase in credits accumulated before transfer (23 additional credits)
was associated with an 11.7% increase in a student’s probability of obtaining a baccalaureate
degree in four years.
Our second research question asked whether the credential effect may differ in magnitude,
depending on the type of associate degree pursued. As anticipated, we do find a positive
relationship (6.9%) for completion of an AA or AS degree prior to transfer (table 2, equation 2),
but not for the AAS degree (table 2, equation 3). No matter what degree is pursued, pre-transfer
grades and early full-time attendance in the bachelor’s program have a much greater association
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credits earned in pursuit of the degree. As a check on the robustness of our results, we also
tested models for a subsample of students with 60 or more credits at the time of transfer. This
model also revealed a modest but statistically significant credential effect for AA and AS
students, but no significant effect for AAS students. (Full results for this model are not shown
here but are available from the authors.)
Our third research question pertains to the value of credits for students who transfer before
completing the associate degree. We found that a one standard deviation increase in credits
accumulated before transfer (23 additional credits) is associated with a 10.7% increased
probability of obtaining a baccalaureate degree in four years. This effect translates into a 5.6%
boost in the likelihood of bachelor’s degree attainment, on average, for earning 12 additional
associate-level credits - the equivalent of one semester of full-time coursework. However, the
negative coefficient on the quadratic term for credits accumulated indicates that credits earned
prior to transfer are not uniformly beneficial (table 3, model 1). Students who transfer with
relatively few credits gain a greater per-credit boost to their baccalaureate prospects than do
students who have completed many credits in the associate program. For example, the increment
from 0 to 12 credits is associated with an 8.5% increase in likelihood of baccalaureate
completion, while the increment from 48 to 60 credits is associated with just an additional 4.2%
percentage points in the baccalaureate rate.
Finally, our fourth hypothesis predicted that credits earned in AA and ASprograms would be
associated with a greater increase in the likelihood of baccalaureate completion than credits
earned in the AAS programs. Results displayed in Table 3 suggest that AA/AS students receive
a substantially higher return on their credits than AAS students (as shown in models 2 and 3). A
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12.9% increase in the likelihood of bachelor’s degree attainment for AA and AS students, but
only an 8.9% increase for AAS students. For an additional semester of full-time coursework, it
is associated with a 6.7% boost in the probability of earning a bachelor’s degree for AA and AS
students, but only a 4.6% boost for AAS students. Additionally we find a diminishing return to
credits for AA/AS students, but not for AAS students.
Discussion
Little is known about the effects of transfer policies on baccalaureate attainment among
transfer students. We contribute to the literature with an analysis of associations between
associate degree attainment prior to transfer and baccalaureate degree attainment after transfer,
keeping in mind differences in transfer policy for students who transfer with and without an
associate degree. We also consider differences in transfer policy for AA/AS students versus
AAS students.
Consistent with our hypothesis, the results of the present analysis suggest the AA and AS
degrees are associated with a slightly increased (+6.9%) probability of bachelor’s degree
completion, but the AAS degree is not. This expected difference in the “credential effect” may
be associated with CUNY’s system-wide articulation policy guaranteeing students who earn an
AA or AS degree 60 credits toward the baccalaureate degree and satisfaction of general
education requirements. The policy confers a value on the course work associated with the AA
or AS above what an equivalent number of credits would carry without the degree. The AAS is
afforded no such guarantee. Even when limiting our sample to students who accumulated 60 or
more credits in their associate program, we find a positive relationship for AA/AS students
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We find it notable that credits accumulated prior to transfer also have a significant
relationship with the probability of baccalaureate attainment for students who were pursuing an
AA/AS or an AAS but did not complete their degrees. Among AA/AS students, results suggest
that successfully completing 12 additional credits prior to transfer -- the equivalent of one
semester of full-time coursework in the community college – is associated with an average
increase in the probability of baccalaureate attainment similar to that of earning the associate
degree. The relationship with credits earned was somewhat smaller for students transferring
from AAS programs but was still significant. Because CUNY transfer policy only ensures
transfer of liberal arts credits for students without degrees, and AAS programs are comprised of a
smaller percentage of liberal arts credits than AA or AS programs, credits earned in pursuit of
the AAS degree are less likely to fulfill baccalaureate general education degree requirements.
We also conducted an analysis limiting the sample to students who earned at least 60 credits.
Results showed no significant credit effect for students pursuing any type of associate degree,
suggesting that credits in excess of 60 are of little incremental value to progress toward the
baccalaureate degree. This is not surprising given that CUNY policy places a ceiling on the
number of credits a student can transfer.
Our findings suggest that students who benefit from more generous transfer policies –
namely students in AA/AS programs who complete an associate degree prior to transfer –may
be more likely to complete a baccalaureate degree within four years of transfer. In contrast,
previous research to examine the relationship between transfer policies on baccalaureate degree
attainment of transfer students did not find this association. Roksa and Keith (2008) found that
transfer students in states with formalized transfer policies did not complete their baccalaureate
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such policies. Our results may vary because we study transfer students within a single system of
higher education, rather than studying students across states. As such, our results can be seen as
an upper bound on these effects; if there is any credential effect, it is most likely to be found
within a single system in which ties between colleges are expected to be tighter, as opposed to
colleges across an entire state. In addition, we examine the relationship between associate
degree attainment, transfer policy, and baccalaureate success for a slightly different outcome
than Roksa and Keith (2008). Rather than looking at time to degree, we examine the likelihood
of degree completion. Our analytic approach is driven by the assumption that transfer students
may be discouraged from continuing their education if they find that the work they did in
community college does not count toward their baccalaureate studies.
Many of the previous attempts to assess the influence of transfer policies on transfer behavior
or baccalaureate outcomes have been hampered by data that are insufficiently detailed or by
sample sizes too small to make these kinds of distinctions (e.g. Anderson et al., 2006; Banks,
1992; Higgins & Katsinas, 1999; Palmer, Ludwig, & Stapleton, 1994; Roksa & Keith, 2008;
Roksa, 2009). Our study improves upon past work due to the size of our sample and the depth of
data available on each student, including detailed high school and college performance data. By
focusing exclusively on transfer students, we are able to examine the value of earning an
associate degree prior to transfer from community college to a four-year college and model
important distinctions such as differential guarantees associated with the AA/AS and the AAS,
and the portability of credits versus the value of the associate degree itself.
To be clear, our findings do not cast doubt on the value of earning an associate degree in
general. Community college students who complete an associate degree have been found to
17
2010; Kane & Rouse, 1995). In addition, we do not address whether earning an associate degree
has an effect on the likelihood of transfer. Our study focuses on a group of students who have in
fact transferred. From a policy perspective, it may make sense to encourage associate
degree-seeking students to complete their degree before transferring into a baccalaureate program not
only because the AA and AS seem to increase the probability of graduating with a baccalaureate
degree but also because of the economic returns of the degree.
We must acknowledge several limitations of our approach. First, because we rely on data
from a single system of higher education institutions, our results may not generalize elsewhere.
Second, this study is correlational in nature, and causation cannot be determined. In particular,
receiving a credential before transferring may be capturing unobserved differences between
associate students, such as motivation or academic focus, or differences in the amount or quality
of guidance services provided or requested by the student. Estimating the causal impact of
receiving the associate credential on the probability of baccalaureate degree attainment is
complicated by the fact that students are not randomly assigned to four-year colleges. Students
select into particular institutions based on their academic preparation and interests, and although
we control for observed student academic preparation and college fixed effects, there may be
other unobserved factors involved. Community college quality has an impact on a student’s
probability of graduating with a baccalaureate degree, but it also (partially) determines a
student’s senior college choice (e.g., Dunlop, 2011). In future analyses, we will explore methods
to account for selection to a greater extent, such as propensity score matching. Another option is
to apply an instrumental variables strategy such as that employed by Dunlop (2011).
This study has not explored a number of additional potential influences on the portability of
18
to baccalaureate degree progress. Likewise, a change of discipline or program between the
associate and baccalaureate degree may also negatively affect the transfer of credits. Still
another potential influence is a change of pre-baccalaureate institutions (Roksa, 2009). Because a
change of majors or institutions may be associated with earning credits that do not transfer well
or at all, it will be important to control for these variables in future work. Finally, some
combinations of associate and baccalaureate majors may create relatively efficient transfer
pathways, owing to articulation agreements between colleges and departments within the CUNY
system. In future work, we intend to track multiple cohorts of transfer students to increase our
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21 Table 1 Descriptive Statistics By Degree Status at Transfer By Associate Degree Type Full Sample (N=4,549) Without Degree (n=2,980) With Degree (n=1,569) AAS (n=1,668) AA or AS (n=2,881) Female Student (%) 64.01 62.38 67.11** 61.99 65.19* Race/Ethnicity Black Student (%) 31.28 32.35* 29.25 33.87** 29.78 Hispanic Student (%) 28.23 25.57 33.27*** 27.04 28.91
Asian/Pac. Is. Student (%) 14.33 13.76 15.42 17.39*** 12.57
Am. Indian Student (%) 0.11 0.13 0.06 0.18 0.07
Age at Transfer (mean) 24.76 24.23 25.76*** 25.91*** 24.12
(standard deviation) (5.79) (5.67) (5.89) (6.52) (5.23) Citizenship Status Permanent Resident (%) 33.42 30.18 39.14*** 38.66*** 30.50 Undocumented (%) 3.66 3.29 4.31 3.97 3.49 Visa Holder (%) 7.25 6.27 8.99** 7.28 7.24 Refugee/Asylum Seeker (%) 0.68 0.64 0.75 0.66 0.69
Pell Grant Recipient (%) 48.27 46.61 51.43** 47.48 48.73
Parent Has College Degree (%) 41.83 43.73** 38.24 40.40 42.62
GED (%) 9.47 8.62 11.09** 10.49 8.89
NYC Resident (%) 87.89 89.30*** 85.21 89.45* 86.98
Regents English Test (mean) 65.48 66.33*** 63.38 64.14 66.07**
(standard deviation) (10.38) (10.35) (10.19) (11.06) (10.02)
Regents Math Test (mean) 68.26 68.88* 66.86 69.19 67.83
(standard deviation) (17.19) (17.11) (17.31) (17.31) (17.13)
Exempt from Remediation (%) 40.35 38.62 43.53** 40.09 40.50
College Discovery Participant (%) 6.88 5.94 8.67*** 7.73 6.39
GPA at transfer (mean) 2.66 2.67 2.64 2.65 2.67
(standard deviation) (0.79) (0.79) (0.79) (0.81) (0.78)
Credits at transfer (mean) 54.30 48.12 65.40*** 57.39*** 52.59
(standard deviation) (22.71) (25.08) (10.96) (22.48) (22.65)
Spring Entrant, Assoc. (%) 33.85 33.32 34.84 32.33 34.72
Full-time Student, Bacc. (%) 68.98 69.63 67.75 63.97 71.88***
GPA at Transfer (mean) 2.66 2.67 2.64 2.65 2.67
(standard deviation) (0.74) (0.73) (0.75) (0.81) (0.78)
Graduated within 4 years 45.75 41.81 53.22*** 40.95 48.52***
22
Table 2
"Credential Effect" on Baccalaureate Completion within 4 Years
(1) (2) (3)
Variables All AA or AS AAS
Credential Effect 0.034 0.069** -0.025
(0.020) (0.026) (0.031)
Credits Accumulated at Transfer (z) 0.117*** 0.129*** 0.089***
(0.011) (0.015) (0.018) Credits (squared) -0.032*** -0.040*** -0.012 (0.007) (0.009) (0.011) Female Student 0.056*** 0.051* 0.067* (0.017) (0.022) (0.027) Black Student -0.034 -0.018 -0.052 (0.024) (0.030) (0.040) Hispanic Student -0.066** -0.050 -0.098* (0.024) (0.030) (0.040)
Asian/Pac. Is. Student 0.052 0.093* 0.002
(0.028) (0.037) (0.043)
Am. Indian Student 0.418** --- 0.292
(0.150) (0.243) Age at Transfer -0.005* -0.004 -0.004 (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) Permanent Resident 0.014 -0.012 0.068 (0.023) (0.029) (0.038) Undocumented Immigrant 0.050 -0.012 0.167* (0.055) (0.073) (0.081)
U.S. Visa Holder 0.044 -0.010 0.156
(0.046) (0.056) (0.081)
Refugee/Asylum Seeker 0.051 0.170 -0.189
(0.119) (0.141) (0.143)
Pell Grant Recipient -0.021 -0.013 -0.027
(0.020) (0.025) (0.032)
Parent Has College Degree -0.021 -0.005 -0.040
(0.021) (0.027) (0.034) GED -0.018 -0.007 -0.045 (0.031) (0.040) (0.047) NYC Resident -0.026 -0.031 -0.012 (0.030) (0.037) (0.050) Regents English (z) -0.015 -0.007 -0.038 (0.016) (0.020) (0.027) Regents Math (z) 0.002 0.003 0.004 (0.015) (0.019) (0.027)
Exempt from Remediation 0.003 -0.023 0.050
(0.018) (0.023) (0.030)
College Discovery Participant 0.000 0.019 -0.003
(0.034) (0.043) (0.054)
GPA at Transfer (z) 0.147*** 0.155*** 0.137***
(0.009) (0.012) (0.015)
23
(0.018) (0.023) (0.030)
Full-time Student (Baccalaureate) 0.240*** 0.219*** 0.265***
(0.019) (0.025) (0.029)
Observations 4,549 2,879 1,668
Pseudo R2 0.188 0.193 0.201
*** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05 Robust standard errors in parentheses.
Models include indicators for missing independent variable data, a control for year of entry into Associate program, and fixed effects for the 4-year college into which a student transferred (not shown).
Omitted reference groups: male, white, U.S. citizen, did not receive a Pell grant, parents’ highest education is less than a college degree, earned a high school diploma, does not reside in New York City, not exempt from remediation, fall entrant (Associate), part-time Baccalaureate student.
24
Table 3
Effect of Credits on Baccalaureate Completion within 4 Years For Students who Transfer before Earning the Associate Degree
(1) (2) (3) Variables All Without Assoc. Degree No AA or AS No AAS
Credits Accumulated at Transfer (z) 0.107*** 0.124*** 0.080***
(0.012) (0.017) (0.019) Credits (squared) -0.033*** -0.039*** -0.017 (0.008) (0.010) (0.012) Female Student 0.078*** 0.076** 0.079* (0.020) (0.026) (0.033) Black Student -0.034 0.002 -0.090 (0.029) (0.036) (0.048) Hispanic Student -0.038 0.014 -0.131** (0.029) (0.037) (0.047)
Asian/Pac. Is. Student 0.048 0.083 -0.010
(0.034) (0.045) (0.052) Age at Transfer -0.006* -0.004 -0.009* (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) Permanent Resident 0.029 -0.005 0.094 (0.029) (0.036) (0.048) Undocumented Immigrant 0.076 0.060 0.073 (0.072) (0.096) (0.097)
U.S. Visa Holder 0.020 -0.010 0.083
(0.060) (0.071) (0.112)
Refugee/Asylum Seeker 0.184 0.286 -0.020
(0.143) (0.185) (0.218)
Pell Grant Recipient -0.041 -0.050 -0.015
(0.024) (0.030) (0.039)
Parent Has College Degree -0.025 0.003 -0.063
(0.025) (0.032) (0.041) GED 0.013 -0.012 0.047 (0.039) (0.049) (0.065) NYC Resident -0.056 -0.063 -0.029 (0.038) (0.046) (0.067) Regents English (z) -0.011 0.006 -0.047 (0.019) (0.023) (0.033) Regents Math (z) -0.019 0.005 -0.056 (0.018) (0.022) (0.032)
Exempt from Remediation 0.002 -0.022 0.039
(0.022) (0.028) (0.037)
College Discovery Participant 0.020 0.035 0.018
(0.044) (0.058) (0.071)
GPA at Transfer (z) 0.138*** 0.153*** 0.125***
(0.011) (0.014) (0.019)
Spring Entrant (Associate) 0.018 -0.011 0.069
(0.022) (0.028) (0.036)
25
(0.022) (0.030) (0.035)
Observations 2,976 1,885 1,091
Pseudo R2 0.188 0.193 0.213
*** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05 Robust standard errors in parentheses.
Models include indicators for missing independent variable data, a control for year of entry into Associate program, and fixed effects for the 4-year college into which a student transferred (not shown).
Omitted reference groups: male, white, U.S. citizen, did not receive a Pell grant, parents’ highest education is less than a college degree, earned a high school diploma, does not reside in New York City, not exempt from remediation, fall entrant (Associate), part-time Baccalaureate student.
