External Conference Call
8 September 2010
2
Investments
Karen Robertson
Investment Director
3 Investments
Agenda
Investments•
Team
•
UK Investment process
4
Investments
Key messages for your clients
•
Premier investment house responsible for over £143.7bn of assets
•
UK Institutional pensions fund assets of over £28.3bn
•
Approximately £25.8bn of UK Equities
•
Clearly differentiated successful UK investment process
Focused on delivering superior performance
5
Investments
9 17
8 Corporate Governance & SRI
10 16
2 Quantitative analysts
13 21
4 UK Small Company Specialists
10 13
13 UK Large Company Specialists
Average years at Standard Life Investments Average years experience
UK equity resource
Active communication structure
structured global input
Rewarded on delivering client and business
performance objectives
Clear incentivisation and
accountability
Coverage, co-ordination, communication, rapid
investment response
Optimum team size
Key Attributes
6
Investments
Support Services (Business Support Services), Telecoms (Fixed Line & Mobile)
Andrew Millington
Food Producers, Nonlife Insurance
Ian Runacres
Travel & Leisure (exc. Bus & Rail)
Helen Driver
Media, Software & Computer Services, Technology Hardware & Equipment
Elena Fernandez
Chemicals, Real Estate, Household Goods, Construction & Materials
Mike Bessell
General Financials
Thomas Moore
Gas, Water & Multiutilities, Electricity, Beverages, Tobacco
Karen Robertson
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology, Oil & Gas Producers, Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution
John Wilson
Banks, Life Insurance, Equity Investment Instruments, Healthcare, Personal Goods (ex BRBY)
Euan Stirling
General Retailers, Food Producers, Food & Drug Retailers
Kiki MacDonald
Industrial Transport, Industrial Engineering, Electronics & Electricals, Aerospace & Defence
Edward Legget
Support Services (exc. Business Support Services), Travel & Leisure (Bus & Rail)
Lesley Duncan
Oil & Gas Producers (Integrated), Mining & Metals
David Cumming
UK Equity Team
Source: Standard Life Investments, 30 June 2010
7
Investments
17
UK Equity Team
6
Corporate Governance Team and SRI
39
Bond and corporate debt teams
10
Economic and market strategy team
44
Global and overseas equity investment managers and analysts
Research
Common investment language across research platform
8
Investments
Proprietary stock ranking tool, assimilation of
quantitative information. 12 factors linked to share
price performance. Proven added value
UK Matrix
Analysis of board performance and incentivisation.
Engagement in management change
Rigorous corporate
governance and SRI
No compromise on coverage. Winners List
Full FTSE350 and
small cap coverage
Scale, direct company contact, systematic
approach to information gathering, key driver focus
Superior information
flow
Change in company expectations drives
outperformance. Key issue analysis. Identify
change early
Focus on Change
A clearly differentiated investment process
9
Investments
The UK matrix
•
A proprietary stock ranking tool
•
Effective assimilation of key quantitative information
•
Useful for ideas, screening, identification of issues
•
10 factors linked to share price performance
10
Investments
Source: Standard Life Investments, 12 August 2010
7 Short-Term Momentum 3.3 3m Earnings 3 S C O R E 5 S C O R E 21 TOTAL 0 13.6 1 4.1 S C O R E EPS Growth S C O R E Dividend Yield
Matrix buy example
Expected EPS Relative
to FTSE350 (Indexed)
Source: Thomson Datastream, 12 August 2010
Britvic
Relative Price Share
Consensus Earnings Forecast Year 1 (R.H Scale) Consensus Earnings Forecast Year 2 (R.H Scale)
A S O N D J F M A M J J A 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
11
Investments
Success of winners list and matrix
Source: Standard Life Investments, 13 August 2010
Performance of winners and matrix top quintiles vs. FTSE 350 since August 2000
Winners Perf. Matrix Top Quintile Perf.
+139.1 +96.9 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Sep -00 Nov-0 0 Jan-01 Mar-0 1 Ma y -0 1 Jul-01 Sep -01 Nov-0 1 Jan-02 Mar-0 2 Ma y -0 2 Jul-02 Sep -02 Nov-0 2 Jan-03 Mar-0 3 Ma y -0 3 Jul-03 Sep -03 Nov-0 3 Jan-04 Mar-0 4 Ma y -0 4 Jul-04 Sep -04 Nov-0 4 Jan-05 Mar-0 5 Ma y -0 5 Jul-05 Sep -05 Nov-0 5 Jan-06 Mar-0 6 Ma y -0 6 Jul-06 Sep -06 Nov-0 6 Jan-07 Mar-0 7 Ma y -0 7 Jul-07 Sep -07 Nov-0 7 Jan-08 Mar-0 8 Ma y -0 8 Jul-08 Sep -08 Nov-0 8 Jan-09 Mar-0 9 Ma y -0 9 Jul-09 Sep -09 Nov-0 9 Jan-10 Mar-1 0 Ma y -1 0 Jul-10
12
Investments
Factor performance over the last 12 months
-8.63 Price / Sales Ratio
12 0.97 1m Chg in 9m MAV 11 1.38 3.52 3.82 7.99 9.96 10.53 12.47 14.05 15.46 15.76 Perf.
Dividend Cover Forecasts 10
Dividend Yield FY1 9
1m Chg in 6m MAV 8
Rolling 12m EPS Growth 7
Revisions Ratio (EPS FY1) 6 3m Sales Revisions 5 3m EPS Revisions 4 Z-score 3 Total Score 2
Broker Confidence Score 1
Factor Ranking
Source: Standard Life Investments, 9 August 2010
12 month factor performance relative to FTSE350
1 year performance
-20.00 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 17/08 /200 9 31/08 /200 9 14/ 09/2 009 28/ 09/2 009 12/1 0/20 09 26/1 0/20 09 09/11 /200 9 23/11 /200 9 07/ 12/2 009 21/ 12/2 009 04/0 1/20 10 18/0 1/20 10 01/02 /201 0 15/02 /201 0 01/ 03/2 010 15/ 03/2 010 29/0 3/20 10 12/0 4/20 10 26/04 /201 0 10/05 /201 0 24/ 05/2 010 07/ 06/2 010 21/0 6/20 10 05/0 7/20 10 19/07 /201 0 02/08 /201 0
1m Chg in 6m MAV 1m Chg in 9m MAV Price / Sales Ratio Dividend Yield FY1 Fwd 12m PE Rolling 12m EPS Growth Revisions Ratio (EPS FY1) 3m EPS Revisions 3m Sales Revisions Broker Confidence Score Dividend Cover Forecasts Z-score Total Score
13 Investments
High conviction stock picking fund
UK Equity High Income Fund
•
Aims to provide a high level of income and capital appreciation from
investments in mainly UK Equities
•
To fulfil IMA UK Equity Income Sector requirements, the fund must
have a yield of at least 110% of the FT All Share
•
Number of stocks range 60 – 70
•
No sector constraints
14 Investments 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.25 1.26 1.36 1.46 1.84 1.93 2.18 Position % 1.48 Smiths Group 1.24 BBA Aviation 5.11 GlaxoSmithKline 1.29 WH Smith 6.23 BP 1.50 GKN 1.50 DS Smith 3.25 Xstrata 2.14 Vedanta Resources 2.26 Britvic Fund % Overweight
UK Equity High Income Fund
-1.41 -1.43 -1.77 -2.01 -2.04 -2.05 -2.17 -2.38 -2.41 -2.73 Position % 0.00 SABMiller 0.00 Reckitt Benckiser Group
0.00 Diageo
0.00 Anglo American
5.01 Royal Dutch Shell
0.00 Tesco 0.00 BG Group 0.65 AstraZeneca 4.93 HSBC Holdings 0.00 BHP Billiton Fund % Underweight
Active money positions
15
Investments
UK Equity High Income Fund
Oil & Gas Producers Food & Drug Retailers
Banks
Support Services Food Producers
Electricity
Industrial Engineering
Gas, Water & Multiutilities Financial Services
General Industrials
-5.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00%
Overweight/underweight positions
16
Investments
UK Equity High Income Fund
Sold
Mondi
IMI
National Grid
Britvic
N Brown
Bought
Fenner
Barratt
Domino Printing
Vedanta
Ladbrokes
Source: Standard Life Investments, 30 June 2010
17
Investments
UK Equity High Income Fund
•
Top decile performance
over 3 months and 7
years and top quartile
performance over 6
months and 5 and 10
years
•
AA rating from
OBSR
•
AAA rating from
S&P
Fund Research
•
Citywire Income Fund
Manager of the Year
Award in 2006
9 16 29 41 23 10 23 0 25 50 75 100 3 m ont h s 6 m ont h s 1 Year 3 Y ear s 5 Y ear s 7 Y ear s 10 Y ear s Per cent il e r a nki n g w it h in t h e I M A U K Equi ty I n com e Sect orUK Equity High Income
Percentile ranking relative to peer group
18 Investments 96 77 91 87 44 33 24 29 20 50 80 3 m o n ths 6 m o n ths 1 Y e ar 2 Y e ar s 3 Y e ar s 5 Y e ar s 7 y e ar s 10 y e a rs P e rc en tile r a n k in g w ith in th e IM A U K E q u it y In co m e S ecto r
UK Equity High Income
Percentile ranking relative to peer group
Source: Morningstar, 1 August 2010
19
Investments
UK Equity High Income long term performance
Source: Morningstar, bid-bid, 31 January 2010
The value of your units may go down as well as up. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future.
13 10 7 20 37 53 35 0 25 50 75 100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 P e rc e n til e r a n k in g with in th e IM A U K E q u ity In c o m e S e c to r
UK Equity High Income
Percentile ranking for the Standard Life Investments UK Equity Income fund
against the Morningstar IMA UK Equity Income sector for each discrete year
20
Investments
UK Equity High Income Fund
Q2 2010 performance attribution
Source: Standard Life Investments, 30 June 2010
Positives
Overweight
Britvic, N Brown, IMI, Severn Trent, Wincanton, Domino
Printing, Hiscox, IG Group
Underweight
BHP Billiton, Anglo American
Negatives
Overweight
BP, Xstrata, Vedanta, DSGI
21
Investments
UK Equity High Income distributions since 2000
-5.99% +5.38% +8.67% +13.98% +13.63% +4.89% +11.81% +7.55% +11.91% 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 £587.42 £657.38 £706.98 £790.44 £829.13 £942.10 £1,073.76 £1,166.89 £1,229.62
Average Income Growth 7.98% p.a. – optimism regarding 2010
* based on £25,000 invested on 31 December 1999 Source: Lipper Hindsight
Total distribution for calendar year (£) *
22
Investments
Reasons to be positive
Market focus will return to improving fundamentals
To 12 August 2010
Sources: Thomson Datastream and Standard Life Investments, 12 August 2010
•
Global recession is over
•
Corporate news flow improving
•
Earnings forecasts increasing
•
Monetary policy supportive
•
Excessive “double dip” fears
•
Valuations very attractive versus
bonds and cash
FTSE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND MSCI WORLD EX UK - TOT RETURN IND
FTSE BRIT.GOVT.FIXED ALL STOCKS - TOT RETURN IND
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Q4,08 Q1,09 Q2,09 Q3,09 Q4,09 Q1,10 Q2,10 Q3,10
23
Investments
UK equities – still attractive?
6.0%
Vodafone
7.1%
Royal & Sun Alliance
6.2%
Shell
5.5%
GlaxoSmithKline
December 2010 forward yield
Sources: Thomson Datastream, Bloomberg, 1 August 2010
12.0
1.1%
3%
3.9%
2010
8.5
4.4%
2011
PE ratio (All Share)
Cash (6m LIBOR)
10 Yr gilts
UK Equity dividend 12m fwd
Developing corporate environment provides opportunities
for active investors who respond to change
•
Attractive yield vs. bonds and cash
•
Valuation very attractive given
earnings recovery prospects
•
Technical pressures (fund raisings)
have eased
•
M&A activity increased
Sources: Thomson Datastream, 1 August 2010 Source: Standard Life Investments, August 2010
UK Bond Yield / UK Dividend Yield Ratio
0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Equities expensive Equities cheap
24
Investments
Where are we now?
UK earnings forecast improving rapidly –
total profits 2010E £bn
Valuation
opportunities
above average
Momentum
•
Corporate refinancing (£82.5bn
rights issues 2009)
•
Cost cutting and earnings
recovery underestimated
•
Trend in earnings forecasts
strongly upwards
•
Balance sheet leverage now low
across market vs. history
115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2008 2009 2010
25
Investments
Where are we now?
Revisions to 2010 profit estimates (% change on previous quarter)
•
Domestic sectors performing strongly
•
Defensives lagging even with currency tailwind – which is now abating
3 2 2 2 -4 -2
Excluding Resources & Financials
6 5 5 5 -3 -17 Excluding Resources 7 4 4 5 -7 -11 Excluding Financials 8 6 6 7 -6 -19 Total 18 44 44 47 2 -78 Banks 1 3 3 0 -9 8 Mobile Telecoms 5 1 1 2 -6 -10
Travel & Leisure
4 4 4 -4 -4 0 Media 3 12 12 14 14 -5 General Retailers 0 0 0 2 4 -3 Food Retailers 3 1 1 5 -7 4 Pharmaceuticals 0 2 2 2 0 2 Tobacco 7 3 3 121 23 -61 Housebuilders 4 3 3 1 1 -3 Food Producers 2 4 4 3 -5 -2 Beverages 22 16 16 33 -16 -38 Mining 5 3 3 1 -12 -16
Oil & Gas Producers
Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 % Change 2010 2009
Source: Factset, June 2010
26
Investments
UK quoted corporate sector in sound shape
Dividend cover much higher than in early 1990s – supportive
•
Dividend cover
high relative to this
point in previous
cycle
•
Balance sheet
leverage now low
across market vs.
history
•
Buybacks and
special dividends
making a return
•
Corporate
refinancing
(£82.5bn rights
issues 2009)
Balance sheet repair complete
Source: Morgan Stanley, Thomson Datastream, 1 May 2010
Source: Thomson Datastream, UBS, 1 May 2010
Di v ide nd Co v e r 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Jan-70 Jan-75 Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10
Net Corporate Flows as % of Mkt Value (3m MA) FTSE100 Level (rhs) -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 % 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 net net
FTSE 350 dividend growth now forecast to be -2% in 2010 and
+17% in 2011 (pre-BP cut, forecasts were +8% and +9%)
27
Investments
Source: Thomson Datastream, 7 September 2010
High Yield stocks have underperformed
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
FTSE 350 - PRICE INDEX
28 Standard Life
Investments
Low yielders include:
DSGI
easyJet
ITV
Tullow Oil
Rios
Vedanta
Less than
3.5%
Greater than
3.5%
Barbell approach –
29 Standard Life
Investments
Standard Life Investments’
Performance awards in 2010
Our dedication to meeting your financial needs is what drives us to deliver excellent performance.
We've been delighted to receive a raft of industry awards in recognition of this commitment.
•
The Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust Plc has, for the fourth consecutive year, won the
‘UK Smaller Companies’
category
(Moneywise Investment Trust Awards, 2010)
•
Standard Life Investments won the
'Best Fund – Equity Global High UK'
category for the
performance of its Managed Fund over a three and five year period
(Lipper Awards, March 2010)
•
Thomas Moore of the UK Larger Companies team was ranked 1
stin the
Thomson Reuters Extel
Pan-European survey
2008 and again in 2010 for the Speciality & Other Financial sector
And other notable awards in 2009
• Standard Life Investments received the award for the ‘Fastest Growing Money Manager over $10 billion’, recognising Canada's most innovative plan sponsors and money managers (Benefits Canada Awards, November 2009)
• For the second consecutive year, Standard Life Investments won the ‘Best UK Small Cap’category (Money Observer Investment Trust Awards, 2009)
• Standard Life Investments won a 5 Star Awardin the Investment category (FTAdviser Online Service Awards, June 2009)
• Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust Plc won the Smallcap Fund of the Yearaward (Growth Company Awards, 2009)
• Standard Life Investments won the ‘Global Fixed Income, unhedged’category (Asian Investor Awards, 2009)
• Standard Life Investments won the ‘Best Sterling Corporate Bond Fund’category (Morningstar 2009 Fund Awards)
• Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust Plc won the ‘UK Smaller Companies’category for the third consecutive year (Moneywise Investment Trust Awards, 2009)
• For the second consecutive year, Harry Nimmo and the UK Smaller Companies team took the number one spot in Citywire’s Top One Hundred Fund Manager of the Year 2009
• Standard Life Investments won the 'Bond Pound Sterling – High Yield'category and the Hong Kong based Award of the 'Best Bond Group'category (Lipper Awards, 2009)
30 Investments
Focus on change
Superior information flow
Full FTSE350 and small cap coverage
Matrix
Active corporate governance
Consistent outperformance
Our competitive advantage
31
Investments
The information shown relates to the past. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of investment can go down as well as up. For full details of the fund's objective, policy, investment and borrowing powers and details of the risks investors need to be aware of please refer to the full prospectus which can be found on www.standardlifeinvestments.com
Standard Life Investments Limited, tel. +44 131 225 2345, a company registered in Scotland (SC123321) Registered Office 1 George Street Edinburgh EH2 2LL.
The Standard Life Investments group includes Standard Life Investments (Mutual Funds) Limited, SLTM Limited, Standard Life Investments (Corporate Funds) Limited and SL Capital Partners LLP. Standard Life Investments Limited acts as Investment Manager for Standard Life Assurance Limited and Standard Life Pension Funds Limited.
Standard Life Investments may record and monitor telephone calls in the UK to help improve customer service. All companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.