Market analysis for small scale wind turbines Nicaragua,

(1)

Market analysis for small scale wind

turbines

Nicaragua, 2012-2013

WEAthens2014 – Wind Empowerment 2

nd

_{Global Conference}

3

rd

_-7

th

_{November 2014}

(2)

WEAthens2014 | Jon Sumanik-Leary | jon.leary@sheffield.ac.uk | www.TheWindyBoy.wordpress.com

Summary

• The history of small wind in Nicaragua

• Quantifying the potential of the technology

in Nicaragua

(3)

The history of small wind in

Nicaragua

(4)

Small wind

“blueEnergy took the

decision to stop

implementing small

wind for our community

projects in the

Caribbean...”

Mathias Craig, Director

& Founder, blueEnergy

Wind power in

Nicaragua

Big wind

A big success!

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cap

ac

id

ad

in

st

al

ad

a (

MW

)

(5)

• Fundamental problems

–

Low wind resource

–

High frequency of failures

–

Low capacity to perform maintenance

Small wind on the

Caribbean coast

(6)

• Caribbean coast:

• Cuajinicul (central highlands):

Pilot project in a

different context

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Disponible para generar Disponible para generar pero esperando reparación Fuera de operación 55W solar 55W solar 55W solar 55W solar 50W PV, TecnoSol 540W solar 1kW eólico Microred

(7)

Cuajinicuil Previous blueEnergy installations 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Pro me di o me ns ua l d e elo cid ad de vi en to (m /s )

Caribbean coast

Cuajinicuil (central highlands)

(8)

Caribbean coast

Cuajinicuil (central highlands)

(9)

Caribbean coast

Cuajinicuil (central highlands)

Lack of local knolwedge for

O&M

Participatory manufacture

Lack of motivation for

maintenance

Stronger sense of community, more electricity

generated & participatory construction

(10)

Caribbean coast

Cuajinicuil (central highlands)

Long supply chain

3 hours in pickup from Managua

Poor access

Average access

Minimum trip

length

2 days

Travel

allowance: $25

Wages: $40

1 day

Travel

allowance:

$12.50

Wages: $20

Transportation

with heavy

items

Private boat

6hrs each way

$400 round

trip

Pickup

3hrs each way

$62.50 round

trip

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

Buen acceso

Acceso normal

Mal acceso

(11)

Caribbean coast

Cuajinicuil (central highlands)

Poor quality control

Difficult to ensure high quality products when

manufacturing in low volumes

Lack of funds for

maintenance

Irrigation system & fruit processing not yet

working

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400 -25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0 5000

10000

2010

2011

2012

US$

C$

Tarifa/aporte

Insumos

Repuestos

Fondo

Rotor y estator Sistema eólico FALLO DE DISEÑO PAGÓ BLUEENERGY Fusible Sistma eólico FALLO DE INSTALACIÓN PAGÓ ASOFENIX Rectificador Sistema eólico FALLO DE DISEÑO PAGÓ BLUEENERGY Controlador de carga Sistema solar PAGARÁ LA COMUNIDAD Resistencia Sistema eólico FALLO DE DISEÑO PAGÓ BLUEENERGY

(12)

Quantifying the potential for the

technology in Nicaragua

(13)

First fliter

Municipialites where small

wind could work

Municipalitie

s where solar

$/kWh <

wind $/kWh

Municipaliti

es with good

hydro

potential

(14)

(15)

• $/W

–

Materials: $5/W

–

Total: $15/W (wind)

$10/W (PV)

• $/kWh

Economic modelling

(16)

WEAthens2014 | Jon Sumanik-Leary | jon.leary@sheffield.ac.uk | www.TheWindyBoy.wordpress.com 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Promedio anual de radiación solar (kWh/m2_/día)

Co st o Le ve liz ad o de G en er ac ió n ($/ kW h)

Promedio annual de velocidad de viento (m/s)

8kW Wind Imported (Bergey Excel-R) 1.2kW Wind Imported (Bergey XL.1) 1kW Wind Local Manufacture (blueEnergy BD4) 150W Wind Imported (Southwest Windpower Air-40)

8kW PV with MPPT Imported (SuniSolar & Ecami) 1kW PV with MPPT Imported (SuniSolar & Ecami) 55W PV w/o MPPT (from Cuajinicuil case study)

8kW eólica importada

1kW eólica importada

1kW eólica nacional

150W eólica importada

8kW solar FV

1kW solar FV

150W solar FV

$/kWh

(17)

WEAthens2014 | Jon Sumanik-Leary | jon.leary@sheffield.ac.uk | www.TheWindyBoy.wordpress.com 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Promedio anual de radiación solar (kWh/m2_/día)

Promedio annual de velocidad de viento (m/s)

1kW Wind Local Manufacture (blueEnergy BD4)

1kW PV with MPPT Imported (SuniSolar & Ecami)

1kW eólica nacional

1kW solar FV

(18)

$/kWh: Difficulty of

accessing installation

site

4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Promedio annual de radiación solar (kWh/m2_/day)

Promedio annual de velicidad de viento (m/s)

Poor access (1kW blueEnergy BD4) Good access (1kW blueEnergy BD4) Average access (1kW blueEnergy BD4) Good access (1kW PV) Average access (1kW PV) Poor access (1kW PV)

Mal acceso

(1kW eólica nacional)

Buen acceso

(1kW eólica nacional)

Acceso normal

(1kW eólica nacional)

Buen acceso

(1kW solar FV)

Acceso normal

(1kW solar FV)

Mal acceso

(1kW solar FV)

(19)

(20)

Second filter

Maximum market size

% population

with grid

(21)

(22)

•

31 municipalities

• 97,574 ppl.

• 19,514 homes

• 1,394 x 1kW

SWTs

–

MAXIMUM!

Market size

(23)

• Highly dependent on quality of wind map

Limitations of the

model

(24)

• Hybrids not included.

Limitations of the

model

Average Solar Radiation for Nicaragua

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

kW h /m ^ 2/ d ay

Source: Surface Meterology and Solar Energy Resource Data, NASA

Bluefields Managua

Recurso

eólico

Vi

ento

(m

/s

)

Pr

ec

ip

itac

ió

n

(cm

)

Recurso

hidraulico

(25)

• Small scale technologies can complement

large scale.

• Small businesses not included.

Limitations of the

model

(26)

• Local studies necesary:

–

Ability to pay

• Availability of micro-finance.

• Willingness to pay for access to electricity.

• Productive uses of energy.

–

Community organisation.

–

Cultural differences within and between

communities.

–

Environmental hazards (e.g. lightning,

corrosion).

Limitations of the

model

(27)

(28)

• Interviews with 13 experts

→

Intervention necessary

Current state

Negativo Neutral Positivo

Opinions of small wind

in Nicaragua

(29)

• High spatial & temporal variation (P

α

V

3 )

–

More detail in regions of high potential.

–

Offer finanical & tech. support for wind

resource evaluations for all new projects.

–

Select & demonstrate hybrid PV-wind systems.

–

Investigate hydro-wind hybrids

High variability in wind

resource

(30)

• Improve national capacity

–

Promote small wind for grid-tie & mechanical

water pumping

• Lobby govt. for feed-in tariff.

–

Offer tech. training:

• Encourage tech. & financial support from wind farm

developers.

• Design & implement a training program for electricity

sector empolyees (inc. government employees).

• Strengthen curriculum at universities & tech. colleges.

(31)

• Reduce probability of failures

–

Investigate environmental hazards in regions

of high winds.

–

Local manufacture is an option, but needs a lot

of support in early years.

• Lobby govt. to reduce import taxes on SWTs &

small wind system components.

• Ability to pay

–

Energy-based micro-enterprises.

High maintenance

needs

(32)

• Maintenance services must be available

locally:

–

Select regions where a critical mass of users

exists.

–

Empower motivated & capable technicians to

perform maintenance in their own

communities , especially in very remote

places.

–

Create a network of service centres in regions

of high potential.

High maintenance

needs

(33)

“Our maintenance

plans are corrective,

not preventative.

We’ve never been

avble to offer a

preventative plan for

our systems”

Douglas González,

Operations manager,

Suni Solar S.A.

High maintenance

needs

(34)

• Carribean coast isn’t the right context for

small wind

• Methodology for quantification of market size

presented

• Potential in central highlands & Pacific coast,

but small wind is a riskier solution than PV

• Key barriers:

–

Wind resource difficult to evaluate

–

Lack of national capacity

–

High maintenance needs

(35)

• Comissioners of the market study:

–

Green Empowerment, WISIONS

• My PhD funders:

–

EPSRC (E-Futures DTC)

• Consultancy team:

–

Lâl Marandin, Mathais Craig, Christian Casillas

• AsoFenix & blueEnergy:

–

Gustavo Reyes, Caitlyn Peake, Bryan Ferry, Cindy

Bennett

• Community memebers:

–

Rosa Zenayda, Cow y Lilian

(36)

• Download the full

market analysis from: