There is 0 STOXX 600 companies with quarterly estimates expected to report Q earnings during the week of September 28. 9/3 8/20 8/27 8/6 8/13

17 

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REPORTING ANALYST: Greg Harrison

September 24, 2015

STOXX 600 EARNINGS OUTLOOK

EUROPEAN AGGREGATE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS

Second quarter earnings are expected to grow 6.8% from Q2 2014.

Second quarter revenue is expected to grow 0.05% from Q2 2014.

267 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported earnings to date for Q2 2015. Of these, 53% reported

earnings above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 48% beat analyst EPS estimates.

302 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported revenue to date for Q2 2015. Of these, 61% reported

revenue above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 53% beat analyst revenue estimates.

The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is 13.9.

There is 0 STOXX 600 companies with quarterly estimates expected to report Q2 2015 earnings during

the week of September 28.

SECTION A: EARNINGS OUTLOOK

Q2 2015: EARNINGS REVISIONS

Exhibit 1A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth Estimate Trend

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 6/ 4 6/ 11 6/ 18 6/2 5 7/ 2 7/ 9 7/ 16 7/ 2 3 7/ 3 0 8/ 6 8/ 13 8/ 2 0 8/ 2 7 9/3 9/10 9/1 7 9/2 4

(2)

Q2 2015: EARNINGS SCORECARDS

Exhibit 2A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings vs. Expectations

Surprise Reported Cos. w/ Ests.

Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total #

Basic Materials 55% 3% 42% -1% 31 32 Consumer Cyclicals 40% 20% 40% -1% 30 35 Consumer Non-Cyclicals 43% 7% 50% -3% 14 17 Energy 50% 0% 50% -9% 18 20 Financials 56% 9% 35% 2% 55 69 Healthcare 54% 12% 35% 4% 26 27 Industrials 58% 10% 32% 26% 50 53 Technology 56% 19% 25% 7% 16 16 Telecommunications Services 41% 18% 41% 5% 17 19 Utilities 80% 0% 20% 37% 10 12 STOXX 600 53.2% 10.1% 36.7% 4% 267 300

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Through September 24, 267 companies in the STOXX 600 Index reported earnings for Q2 2015. Of these,

53.2% reported earnings above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter (since 2011), 48% of companies beat

estimates, 8% match and 44% miss estimates. Over the past four quarters, 50% of companies beat the

estimates, 8% matched and 42% missed estimates.

In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 4% above estimates, which is in line with the 4%

long-term (since 2011) average surprise factor, and in line with the 4% surprise factor recorded over the past

four quarters.

Exhibit 3A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Earnings vs. Expectations

Reported Cos. w/ Ests.

Sector Above % Match % Below % Total # Total #

Basic Materials 55% 0% 45% 49 51 Consumer Cyclicals 48% 8% 44% 71 73 Consumer Non-Cyclicals 63% 6% 31% 32 33 Energy 57% 4% 39% 28 28 Financials 33% 9% 59% 116 119 Healthcare 49% 9% 43% 35 37 Industrials 44% 9% 46% 106 110 Technology 86% 0% 14% 22 24 Telecommunications Services 43% 5% 52% 21 21 Utilities 59% 0% 41% 17 17 STOXX 600 47.7% 6.6% 45.7% 497 513

(3)

Q2 2015: REVENUE SCORECARDS

Exhibit 4A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Revenue vs. Expectations

Surprise Reported Cos. w/ Ests.

Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total #

Basic Materials 61% 0% 39% 1% 33 33 Consumer Cyclicals 64% 3% 33% 3% 36 37 Consumer Non-Cyclicals 47% 0% 53% -2% 19 20 Energy 60% 0% 40% 13% 20 20 Financials 60% 0% 40% 3% 63 64 Healthcare 67% 0% 33% 2% 27 27 Industrials 65% 0% 35% 2% 57 57 Technology 56% 0% 44% 1% 16 16 Telecommunications Services 74% 0% 26% 2% 19 21 Utilities 33% 0% 67% 3% 12 12 STOXX 600 60.9% 0.3% 38.7% 3% 302 307

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Through September 24, 302 companies in the STOXX 600 Index reported revenues for Q2 2015. Of these,

60.9% beat analyst expectations. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 3% above

estimates.

Exhibit 5A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Revenue vs. Expectations

Reported Cos. w/ Ests.

Sector Above % Match % Below % Total # Total #

Basic Materials 55% 0% 45% 49 51 Consumer Cyclicals 60% 1% 39% 70 73 Consumer Non-Cyclicals 56% 0% 44% 32 33 Energy 46% 0% 54% 28 28 Financials 52% 0% 48% 114 119 Healthcare 49% 0% 51% 35 37 Industrials 52% 0% 48% 106 110 Technology 82% 0% 18% 22 24 Telecommunications Services 67% 0% 33% 21 21 Utilities 41% 0% 59% 17 17 STOXX 600 54.7% 0.2% 45.1% 494 513

(4)

Q2 2015: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES

Exhibit 6A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth (Based on 300 Companies with Estimates)

Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth %

Sector Q215 Q214 Q215 Q215 Basic Materials 6.3 6.0 0.3 5.7% Consumer Cyclicals 10.7 10.3 0.4 3.7% Consumer Non-Cyclicals 5.4 5.7 -0.3 -5.5% Energy 9.3 16.5 -7.2 -43.6% Financials 36.0 24.8 11.2 45.0% Healthcare 13.5 13.0 0.5 3.9% Industrials 9.1 7.5 1.6 20.8% Technology 3.6 3.3 0.3 9.2% Telecommunication Services 3.6 3.8 -0.1 -3.5% Utilities 2.5 2.7 -0.2 -8.5% STOXX 600 100.0 93.6 6.4 6.8%

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

The estimated earnings growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q2 2015 is 6.8%. The STOXX 600 expects to see

share-weighted earnings of $100.0B in Q2 2015, compared to share-weighted earnings of $93.6B (based on

the year-ago earnings of the current constituents) in Q2 2014.

Six of the ten sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to Q2 2014. The

Financials sector has the highest earnings growth rate for the quarter, while the Energy sector has the

weakest anticipated growth compared to Q2 2014.

The Financials sector has the highest earnings growth rate (45.0%) of any sector. It is expected to earn

$36.0B in Q2 2015, compared to earnings of $24.8B in Q2 2014. Three of the five industry groups in the sector

are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The Investment Banking & Investment Services

industry group has the highest growth rate within the sector at 393%.

The Energy sector has the lowest growth rate (-43.6%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $9.3B in Q2 2015,

relative to earnings of $16.5B in Q2 2014. The Oil & Gas Related Equipment and Services industry group has

the lowest growth rate within the sector at -114%.

Exhibit 7A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2015 Earnings Growth (Based on 509 Companies with Estimates)

Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth %

Sector 2015 2014 2015 2015 Basic Materials 37.4 41.5 -4.1 -9.8% Consumer Cyclicals 72.8 61.5 11.3 18.4% Consumer Non-Cyclicals 53.7 55.6 -1.8 -3.3% Energy 42.8 70.7 -27.9 -39.4% Financials 188.0 137.7 50.3 36.5% Healthcare 68.1 66.9 1.1 1.7% Industrials 67.9 59.1 8.7 14.8% Technology 17.8 15.8 2.0 12.8% Telecommunications Services 20.3 14.9 5.4 36.4% Utilities 26.2 26.7 -0.4 -1.6% STOXX 600 595.1 550.4 44.7 8.1%

(5)

Q2 2015: REVENUE GROWTH RATES

Exhibit 8A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Revenue Growth (Based on 307 Companies with Estimates)

Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth %

Sector Q215 Q214 Q215 Q215 Basic Materials 114.7 113.4 1.4 1.2% Consumer Cyclicals 229.5 197.6 32.0 16.2% Consumer Non-Cyclicals 104.2 102.3 1.9 1.9% Energy 190.4 259.2 -68.8 -26.6% Financials 201.7 194.2 7.5 3.9% Healthcare 86.7 80.4 6.3 7.9% Industrials 210.9 202.4 8.5 4.2% Technology 30.8 27.4 3.4 12.5% Telecommunications Services 76.7 71.8 4.9 6.9% Utilities 50.0 46.5 3.5 7.5% STOXX 600 1,295.7 1,295.1 0.6 0.0%

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

The estimated revenue growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q2 2015 is 0.0%. The STOXX 600 is expected to

earn revenues of $1,295.7B in Q2 2015 compared to $1,295.1B in Q2 2014.

Nine of the ten sectors anticipate revenue growth for the quarter. The Consumer Cyclicals sector is expected

to have the highest revenue growth rate for the quarter, while the Energy sector is expected to have the

lowest revenue growth rate.

The Consumer Cyclicals sector expects the highest revenue growth rate (16.2%) for the quarter. It is expected

to generate sales of $229.5B in Q2 2015, compared to sales of $197.6B in Q2 2014.

The Energy sector has the lowest revenue growth rate at (-26.6%). The sector is expected to post sales of

$190.4B in Q2 2015, relative to sales of $259.2B in Q2 2014.

Exhibit 9A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2015 Revenue Growth (Based on 505 Companies with Estimates)

Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth %

Sector 2015 2014 2015 2015 Basic Materials 625.6 620.2 5.3 0.9% Consumer Cyclicals 1,307.9 1,198.2 109.7 9.2% Consumer Non-Cyclicals 753.4 727.8 25.6 3.5% Energy 1,249.9 1,649.2 -399.3 -24.2% Financials 1,494.9 1,409.0 86.0 6.1% Healthcare 421.3 399.4 21.9 5.5% Industrials 1,265.6 1,227.4 38.2 3.1% Technology 159.0 140.7 18.2 13.0% Telecommunications Services 333.3 303.1 30.2 10.0% Utilities 632.5 627.3 5.2 0.8% STOXX 600 8,243.3 8,302.2 -58.9 -0.7%

(6)

Q2 2015: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES BY COUNTRY

Exhibit 10A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth Rate Estimates by Country

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Analysts expect positive earnings growth from 13 of the 20 countries represented in the STOXX 600

index. Ireland (27%) and Denmark (25%) have the highest estimated earnings growth rates, while

Luxembourg (-57%) and Greece (-46%) have the lowest estimated growth.

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Luxembourg

Greece

Italy

Great

 

Britain

Belgium

Czech

 

Republic

Jersey

Norway

France

Netherlands

STOXX

 

600

Finland

Sweden

Bermuda

Germany

Switzerland

Spain

Denmark

Ireland

(7)

FORWARD FOUR-QUARTER P/E RATIO

Exhibit 11A. STOXX 600: Forward P/E Ratio

P/E Ratio Number of Companies

CY 2015 14.8 508

Forward 13.9 508

CY 2016 13.5 508

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is 13.9.

Q2 2015 – Q1 2016: EARNINGS GROWTH

The estimated earnings growth rates for the STOXX 600 for Q2 2015 through Q1 2016 are 7%, -2%, 55% and

0%, respectively. For sector-level growth rates for Q2 2015 through Q1 2016, see Exhibits 2C-5C in this report.

EARNINGS CALENDAR

The next several weeks will see companies report earnings for Q2 2015. There are 0 STOXX 600 companies

with quarterly estimates scheduled to report Q2 2015 earnings during the week of September 28.

Exhibit 12A. Number of Companies Reporting Q2 2015 Earnings

Reported Report Report Report

Q2 2015 To Date This Week Next Week Remaining

STOXX 600 267 0 0 33

(8)

SECTION B: EARNINGS CALENDAR

MONDAY: SEPTEMBER 28

Exhibit 1B. Monday Earnings Calendar

Date

Ticker

Company

Qtr/Semi

Est

Yr Ago

% Dif

(9)

TUESDAY: SEPTEMBER 29

Exhibit 2B. Tuesday Earnings Calendar

Date

Ticker

Company

Qtr/Semi

Est

Yr Ago

% Dif

9/29/2015 WDH.CO

WILLIAM

DEMANT

HLDG.

QTR

NA

(10)

WEDNESDAY: SEPTEMBER 30

Exhibit 3B. Wednesday Earnings Calendar

Date

Ticker

Company

Qtr/Semi

Est

Yr Ago

% Dif

9/30/2015 WOS.L

WOLSELEY

SEMI

NA

(11)

THURSDAY: OCTOBER 1

Exhibit 4B. Thursday Earnings Calendar

Date

Ticker

Company

Qtr/Semi

Est

Yr Ago

% Dif

(12)

FRIDAY: OCTOBER 2

Exhibit 5B. Friday Earnings Calendar

Date

Ticker

Company

Qtr/Semi

Est

Yr Ago

% Dif

(13)

SECTION C: EARNINGS DATA TABLES

Exhibit 1C. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Scorecard

Sector Above

Match

Below

Surprise

Reported

Index

Basic Materials

55%

3%

42%

-1%

31

32

Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

40%

20%

40%

-1%

30

35

Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

43%

7%

50%

-3%

14

17

Energy 50%

0%

50%

-9%

18

20

Financials 56%

9%

35%

2%

55

69

Healthcare 54%

12%

35%

4%

26

27

Industrials 58%

10%

32%

26%

50

53

Technology 56%

19%

25%

7%

16

16

Telecommunications Services

41%

18%

41%

5%

17

19

Utilities 80%

0%

20%

37%

10

12

STOXX 600

53.2%

10.1%

36.7%

4%

267

300

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Exhibit 2C. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth

Sector

Today

1 Jul

1 Apr

1 Jan

1 Oct

Basic Materials

5.7%

14.9%

19.0%

20.9%

21.6%

Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

3.7%

3.8%

4.7%

11.0%

13.0%

Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

-5.5%

4.0%

7.8%

20.0%

20.9%

Energy -43.6%

-36.1%

-62.9%

-30.2%

6.9%

Financials 45.0%

36.8%

29.2%

85.5%

20.3%

Healthcare 3.9%

-1.1%

-0.3%

-4.8%

-8.2%

Industrials 20.8%

22.0%

28.5%

17.4%

19.0%

Technology 9.2%

2.3%

11.2%

8.5%

7.9%

Telecommunications Services

-3.5%

-10.6%

5.4%

14.6%

29.7%

Utilities -8.5%

-29.8%

-28.7%

-27.1%

-24.4%

STOXX 600

6.8%

4.9%

-1.1%

9.3%

10.5%

Number of Companies Included in Estimate

300

259

237

152

130

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Exhibit 3C. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Earnings Growth

Sector

Today

1 Jul

1 Apr

1 Jan

1 Oct

Basic Materials

-3.3%

3.4%

5.8%

-23.9%

24.1%

Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

12.1%

11.5%

9.4%

82.9%

136.6%

Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

-0.5%

2.5%

4.0%

36.7%

11.3%

Energy -40.6%

-35.3%

-56.7%

-25.7%

3.8%

Financials 2.7%

7.7%

13.3%

46.0%

14.4%

Healthcare 0.2%

2.6%

3.0%

5.0%

14.9%

Industrials 11.0%

14.3%

13.1%

15.5%

19.4%

Technology 10.0%

16.3%

14.8%

12.0%

16.3%

Telecommunications Services 14.6%

-0.2%

4.4%

13.1%

14.8%

Utilities 21.1%

-5.6%

0.9%

17.0%

10.3%

STOXX 600

-2.5%

-0.3%

-3.3%

13.4%

20.6%

Number of Companies Included in Estimate

263

259

238

156

113

(14)

Exhibit 4C. STOXX 600: Q4 2015 Earnings Growth

Sector

Today

1 Jul

1 Apr

1 Jan

Basic Materials

-4.3%

16.9%

23.1%

-2.4%

Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

25.6%

29.2%

29.0%

85.9%

Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

-0.9%

2.0%

2.5%

18.3%

Energy -16.4%

0.8%

-10.8%

-3.0%

Financials 620.6%

297.7%

57.5%

104.7%

Healthcare 13.3%

16.0%

20.5%

14.2%

Industrials 54.1%

38.3%

54.8%

17.5%

Technology 8.8%

12.8%

12.5%

18.0%

Telecommunications Services 211.6%

163.3%

-6.1%

7.6%

Utilities 56.3%

61.7%

24.8%

14.8%

STOXX 600

55.4%

51.3%

26.2%

21.4%

Number of Companies Included in Estimate

262

260

235

134

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Exhibit 5C. STOXX 600: Q1 2016 Earnings Growth

Sector

Today

1 Jul

1 Apr

Basic Materials

10.3%

-7.2%

0.5%

Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

6.0%

15.4%

12.6%

Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

30.3%

37.2%

11.0%

Energy -32.5%

2.7%

49.6%

Financials 9.8%

2.0%

18.6%

Healthcare 3.5%

1.4%

16.9%

Industrials -12.8%

-13.1%

14.2%

Technology 29.4%

34.3%

28.6%

Telecommunications Services 3.6%

1.1%

13.7%

Utilities 5.5%

18.7%

-2.5%

STOXX 600

0.3%

2.6%

21.9%

Number of Companies Included in Estimate

142

119

96

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Exhibit 6C. STOXX 600: Q2 2016 Earnings Growth

Sector

Today

1 Jul

Basic Materials

14.5%

-6.4%

Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

15.9%

10.7%

Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

93.0%

78.3%

Energy 11.7%

28.0%

Financials 16.6%

41.4%

Healthcare 9.1%

10.9%

Industrials 2.1%

2.0%

Technology 13.3%

24.5%

Telecommunications Services

8.5%

4.1%

Utilities -5.1%

11.1%

STOXX 600

13.4%

21.4%

Number of Companies Included in Estimate

126

101

(15)

Exhibit 7C. STOXX 600: CY 2015 Earnings Growth

Sector

Today

1 Jul

1 Apr

1 Jan

1 Oct

Basic Materials

-9.8%

-4.8%

2.6%

12.0%

17.5%

Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

18.4%

20.2%

18.5%

15.6%

16.5%

Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

-3.3%

-2.0%

-2.5%

8.4%

9.4%

Energy -39.4%

-32.1%

-39.7%

-7.6%

10.7%

Financials 36.5%

32.1%

20.6%

20.7%

20.7%

Healthcare 1.7%

2.6%

2.8%

7.6%

9.3%

Industrials 14.8%

17.4%

17.3%

14.9%

17.2%

Technology 12.8%

13.7%

15.2%

20.3%

20.2%

Telecommunications Services

36.4%

37.1%

35.2%

10.9%

8.7%

Utilities -1.6%

-1.7%

-0.9%

1.9%

4.4%

STOXX 600

8.1%

9.0%

5.9%

11.6%

14.9%

Number of Companies Included in Estimate

509

511

508

505

505

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Exhibit 8C. STOXX 600: CY 2016 Earnings Growth

Sector

Today

1 Jul

1 Apr

Basic Materials

15.8%

19.9%

17.6%

Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

13.9%

13.0%

13.5%

Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

7.4%

8.5%

8.6%

Energy 11.2%

26.0%

40.0%

Financials 7.6%

10.6%

11.7%

Healthcare 8.5%

9.3%

9.6%

Industrials 10.5%

11.2%

11.9%

Technology 16.8%

17.3%

14.8%

Telecommunications Services

12.6%

14.6%

14.8%

Utilities -1.0%

1.4%

1.0%

STOXX 600

9.6%

12.4%

13.6%

Number of Companies Included in Estimate

508

511

503

(16)

Exhibit 9C. STOXX 600: Actual Earnings Growth Rates

Sector 1Q15

4Q14

3Q14

2Q14

1Q14

Basic Materials

29.6%

26.5%

19.4%

13.3%

6.2%

Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services

28.7%

13.0%

18.9%

24.8%

17.8%

Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 2.2%

-12.4%

8.5%

25.8%

19.2%

Energy -32.1%

-22.7%

-3.2%

23.7%

-2.1%

Financials 37.0%

156.8%

23.5%

2.3%

-0.2%

Healthcare 4.5%

-8.6%

6.8%

2.1%

-1.0%

Industrials 40.9%

-21.8%

6.6%

12.4%

31.0%

Technology 21.6%

17.8%

35.5%

47.9%

47.2%

Telecommunications Services

30.9%

-55.0%

-2.6%

-11.9%

-32.0%

Utilities -12.1%

-18.5%

-3.4%

7.3%

-19.0%

STOXX 600

11.1%

7.7%

11.7%

11.1%

1.1%

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Exhibit 10C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Above/Match/Below)

1Q15

4Q14

3Q14

2Q14

1Q14

Above 51%

50%

52%

48%

45%

Match 10%

8%

9%

8%

7%

Below 39%

43%

39%

44%

48%

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Exhibit 11C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Aggregate Difference)

1Q15

4Q14

3Q14

2Q14

1Q14

Surprise Factor 10.3%

-5.7%

3.9%

4.0%

7.4%

(17)

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References

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