(1)REPORTING ANALYST: Greg Harrison
September 24, 2015
STOXX 600 EARNINGS OUTLOOK
EUROPEAN AGGREGATE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS
Second quarter earnings are expected to grow 6.8% from Q2 2014.
Second quarter revenue is expected to grow 0.05% from Q2 2014.
267 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported earnings to date for Q2 2015. Of these, 53% reported
earnings above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 48% beat analyst EPS estimates.
302 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported revenue to date for Q2 2015. Of these, 61% reported
revenue above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 53% beat analyst revenue estimates.
The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is 13.9.
There is 0 STOXX 600 companies with quarterly estimates expected to report Q2 2015 earnings during
the week of September 28.
SECTION A: EARNINGS OUTLOOK
Q2 2015: EARNINGS REVISIONS
Exhibit 1A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth Estimate Trend
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
6/
4
6/
11
6/
18
6/2
5
7/
2
7/
9
7/
16
7/
2
3
7/
3
0
8/
6
8/
13
8/
2
0
8/
2
7
9/3 9/10 9/1
7
9/2
4
Q2 2015: EARNINGS SCORECARDS
Exhibit 2A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings vs. Expectations
Surprise Reported Cos. w/ Ests.
Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total #
Basic Materials 55% 3% 42% -1% 31 32
Consumer Cyclicals 40% 20% 40% -1% 30 35
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 43% 7% 50% -3% 14 17
Energy 50% 0% 50% -9% 18 20
Financials 56% 9% 35% 2% 55 69
Healthcare 54% 12% 35% 4% 26 27
Industrials 58% 10% 32% 26% 50 53
Technology 56% 19% 25% 7% 16 16
Telecommunications Services 41% 18% 41% 5% 17 19
Utilities 80% 0% 20% 37% 10 12
STOXX 600 53.2% 10.1% 36.7% 4% 267 300
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Through September 24, 267 companies in the STOXX 600 Index reported earnings for Q2 2015. Of these,
53.2% reported earnings above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter (since 2011), 48% of companies beat
estimates, 8% match and 44% miss estimates. Over the past four quarters, 50% of companies beat the
estimates, 8% matched and 42% missed estimates.
In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 4% above estimates, which is in line with the 4%
long-term (since 2011) average surprise factor, and in line with the 4% surprise factor recorded over the past
four quarters.
Exhibit 3A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Earnings vs. Expectations
Reported Cos. w/ Ests.
Sector Above % Match % Below % Total # Total #
Basic Materials 55% 0% 45% 49 51
Consumer Cyclicals 48% 8% 44% 71 73
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 63% 6% 31% 32 33
Energy 57% 4% 39% 28 28
Financials 33% 9% 59% 116 119
Healthcare 49% 9% 43% 35 37
Industrials 44% 9% 46% 106 110
Technology 86% 0% 14% 22 24
Telecommunications Services 43% 5% 52% 21 21
Utilities 59% 0% 41% 17 17
STOXX 600 47.7% 6.6% 45.7% 497 513
Q2 2015: REVENUE SCORECARDS
Exhibit 4A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Revenue vs. Expectations
Surprise Reported Cos. w/ Ests.
Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total #
Basic Materials 61% 0% 39% 1% 33 33
Consumer Cyclicals 64% 3% 33% 3% 36 37
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 47% 0% 53% -2% 19 20
Energy 60% 0% 40% 13% 20 20
Financials 60% 0% 40% 3% 63 64
Healthcare 67% 0% 33% 2% 27 27
Industrials 65% 0% 35% 2% 57 57
Technology 56% 0% 44% 1% 16 16
Telecommunications Services 74% 0% 26% 2% 19 21
Utilities 33% 0% 67% 3% 12 12
STOXX 600 60.9% 0.3% 38.7% 3% 302 307
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Through September 24, 302 companies in the STOXX 600 Index reported revenues for Q2 2015. Of these,
60.9% beat analyst expectations. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 3% above
estimates.
Exhibit 5A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Revenue vs. Expectations
Reported Cos. w/ Ests.
Sector Above % Match % Below % Total # Total #
Basic Materials 55% 0% 45% 49 51
Consumer Cyclicals 60% 1% 39% 70 73
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 56% 0% 44% 32 33
Energy 46% 0% 54% 28 28
Financials 52% 0% 48% 114 119
Healthcare 49% 0% 51% 35 37
Industrials 52% 0% 48% 106 110
Technology 82% 0% 18% 22 24
Telecommunications Services 67% 0% 33% 21 21
Utilities 41% 0% 59% 17 17
STOXX 600 54.7% 0.2% 45.1% 494 513
Q2 2015: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES
Exhibit 6A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth (Based on 300 Companies with Estimates)
Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth %
Sector Q215 Q214 Q215 Q215
Basic Materials 6.3 6.0 0.3 5.7%
Consumer Cyclicals 10.7 10.3 0.4 3.7%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 5.4 5.7 -0.3 -5.5%
Energy 9.3 16.5 -7.2 -43.6%
Financials 36.0 24.8 11.2 45.0%
Healthcare 13.5 13.0 0.5 3.9%
Industrials 9.1 7.5 1.6 20.8%
Technology 3.6 3.3 0.3 9.2%
Telecommunication Services 3.6 3.8 -0.1 -3.5%
Utilities 2.5 2.7 -0.2 -8.5%
STOXX 600 100.0 93.6 6.4 6.8%
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
The estimated earnings growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q2 2015 is 6.8%. The STOXX 600 expects to see
share-weighted earnings of $100.0B in Q2 2015, compared to share-weighted earnings of $93.6B (based on
the year-ago earnings of the current constituents) in Q2 2014.
Six of the ten sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to Q2 2014. The
Financials sector has the highest earnings growth rate for the quarter, while the Energy sector has the
weakest anticipated growth compared to Q2 2014.
The Financials sector has the highest earnings growth rate (45.0%) of any sector. It is expected to earn
$36.0B in Q2 2015, compared to earnings of $24.8B in Q2 2014. Three of the five industry groups in the sector
are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The Investment Banking & Investment Services
industry group has the highest growth rate within the sector at 393%.
The Energy sector has the lowest growth rate (-43.6%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $9.3B in Q2 2015,
relative to earnings of $16.5B in Q2 2014. The Oil & Gas Related Equipment and Services industry group has
the lowest growth rate within the sector at -114%.
Exhibit 7A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2015 Earnings Growth (Based on 509 Companies with Estimates)
Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth %
Sector 2015 2014 2015 2015
Basic Materials 37.4 41.5 -4.1 -9.8%
Consumer Cyclicals 72.8 61.5 11.3 18.4%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 53.7 55.6 -1.8 -3.3%
Energy 42.8 70.7 -27.9 -39.4%
Financials 188.0 137.7 50.3 36.5%
Healthcare 68.1 66.9 1.1 1.7%
Industrials 67.9 59.1 8.7 14.8%
Technology 17.8 15.8 2.0 12.8%
Telecommunications Services 20.3 14.9 5.4 36.4%
Utilities 26.2 26.7 -0.4 -1.6%
STOXX 600 595.1 550.4 44.7 8.1%
Q2 2015: REVENUE GROWTH RATES
Exhibit 8A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Revenue Growth (Based on 307 Companies with Estimates)
Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth %
Sector Q215 Q214 Q215 Q215
Basic Materials 114.7 113.4 1.4 1.2%
Consumer Cyclicals 229.5 197.6 32.0 16.2%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 104.2 102.3 1.9 1.9%
Energy 190.4 259.2 -68.8 -26.6%
Financials 201.7 194.2 7.5 3.9%
Healthcare 86.7 80.4 6.3 7.9%
Industrials 210.9 202.4 8.5 4.2%
Technology 30.8 27.4 3.4 12.5%
Telecommunications Services 76.7 71.8 4.9 6.9%
Utilities 50.0 46.5 3.5 7.5%
STOXX 600 1,295.7 1,295.1 0.6 0.0%
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
The estimated revenue growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q2 2015 is 0.0%. The STOXX 600 is expected to
earn revenues of $1,295.7B in Q2 2015 compared to $1,295.1B in Q2 2014.
Nine of the ten sectors anticipate revenue growth for the quarter. The Consumer Cyclicals sector is expected
to have the highest revenue growth rate for the quarter, while the Energy sector is expected to have the
lowest revenue growth rate.
The Consumer Cyclicals sector expects the highest revenue growth rate (16.2%) for the quarter. It is expected
to generate sales of $229.5B in Q2 2015, compared to sales of $197.6B in Q2 2014.
The Energy sector has the lowest revenue growth rate at (-26.6%). The sector is expected to post sales of
$190.4B in Q2 2015, relative to sales of $259.2B in Q2 2014.
Exhibit 9A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2015 Revenue Growth (Based on 505 Companies with Estimates)
Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth %
Sector 2015 2014 2015 2015
Basic Materials 625.6 620.2 5.3 0.9%
Consumer Cyclicals 1,307.9 1,198.2 109.7 9.2%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 753.4 727.8 25.6 3.5%
Energy 1,249.9 1,649.2 -399.3 -24.2%
Financials 1,494.9 1,409.0 86.0 6.1%
Healthcare 421.3 399.4 21.9 5.5%
Industrials 1,265.6 1,227.4 38.2 3.1%
Technology 159.0 140.7 18.2 13.0%
Telecommunications Services 333.3 303.1 30.2 10.0%
Utilities 632.5 627.3 5.2 0.8%
STOXX 600 8,243.3 8,302.2 -58.9 -0.7%
Q2 2015: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES BY COUNTRY
Exhibit 10A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth Rate Estimates by Country
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Analysts expect positive earnings growth from 13 of the 20 countries represented in the STOXX 600
index. Ireland (27%) and Denmark (25%) have the highest estimated earnings growth rates, while
Luxembourg (-57%) and Greece (-46%) have the lowest estimated growth.
‐
70%
‐
60%
‐
50%
‐
40%
‐
30%
‐
20%
‐
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Luxembourg
Greece
Italy
Great
Britain
Belgium
Czech
Republic
Jersey
Norway
France
Netherlands
STOXX
600
Finland
Sweden
Bermuda
Germany
Switzerland
Spain
Denmark
Ireland
FORWARD FOUR-QUARTER P/E RATIO
Exhibit 11A. STOXX 600: Forward P/E Ratio
P/E Ratio Number of Companies
CY 2015 14.8 508
Forward 13.9 508
CY 2016 13.5 508
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is 13.9.
Q2 2015 – Q1 2016: EARNINGS GROWTH
The estimated earnings growth rates for the STOXX 600 for Q2 2015 through Q1 2016 are 7%, -2%, 55% and
0%, respectively. For sector-level growth rates for Q2 2015 through Q1 2016, see Exhibits 2C-5C in this report.
EARNINGS CALENDAR
The next several weeks will see companies report earnings for Q2 2015. There are 0 STOXX 600 companies
with quarterly estimates scheduled to report Q2 2015 earnings during the week of September 28.
Exhibit 12A. Number of Companies Reporting Q2 2015 Earnings
Reported Report Report Report
Q2 2015 To Date This Week Next Week Remaining
STOXX 600 267 0 0 33
SECTION B: EARNINGS CALENDAR
MONDAY: SEPTEMBER 28
Exhibit 1B. Monday Earnings Calendar
Date
Ticker
Company
Qtr/Semi
Est
Yr Ago
% Dif
TUESDAY: SEPTEMBER 29
Exhibit 2B. Tuesday Earnings Calendar
Date
Ticker
Company
Qtr/Semi
Est
Yr Ago
% Dif
9/29/2015 WDH.CO
WILLIAM
DEMANT
HLDG.
QTR
NA
WEDNESDAY: SEPTEMBER 30
Exhibit 3B. Wednesday Earnings Calendar
Date
Ticker
Company
Qtr/Semi
Est
Yr Ago
% Dif
9/30/2015 WOS.L
WOLSELEY
SEMI
NA
THURSDAY: OCTOBER 1
Exhibit 4B. Thursday Earnings Calendar
Date
Ticker
Company
Qtr/Semi
Est
Yr Ago
% Dif
FRIDAY: OCTOBER 2
Exhibit 5B. Friday Earnings Calendar
Date
Ticker
Company
Qtr/Semi
Est
Yr Ago
% Dif
SECTION C: EARNINGS DATA TABLES
Exhibit 1C. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Scorecard
Sector Above
Match
Below
Surprise
Reported
Index
Basic Materials
55%
3%
42%
-1%
31
32
Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
40%
20%
40%
-1%
30
35
Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
43%
7%
50%
-3%
14
17
Energy 50%
0%
50%
-9%
18
20
Financials 56%
9%
35%
2%
55
69
Healthcare 54%
12%
35%
4%
26
27
Industrials 58%
10%
32%
26%
50
53
Technology 56%
19%
25%
7%
16
16
Telecommunications Services
41%
18%
41%
5%
17
19
Utilities 80%
0%
20%
37%
10
12
STOXX 600
53.2%
10.1%
36.7%
4%
267
300
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Exhibit 2C. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth
Sector
Today
1 Jul
1 Apr
1 Jan
1 Oct
Basic Materials
5.7%
14.9%
19.0%
20.9%
21.6%
Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
3.7%
3.8%
4.7%
11.0%
13.0%
Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
-5.5%
4.0%
7.8%
20.0%
20.9%
Energy -43.6%
-36.1%
-62.9%
-30.2%
6.9%
Financials 45.0%
36.8%
29.2%
85.5%
20.3%
Healthcare 3.9%
-1.1%
-0.3%
-4.8%
-8.2%
Industrials 20.8%
22.0%
28.5%
17.4%
19.0%
Technology 9.2%
2.3%
11.2%
8.5%
7.9%
Telecommunications Services
-3.5%
-10.6%
5.4%
14.6%
29.7%
Utilities -8.5%
-29.8%
-28.7%
-27.1%
-24.4%
STOXX 600
6.8%
4.9%
-1.1%
9.3%
10.5%
Number of Companies Included in Estimate
300
259
237
152
130
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Exhibit 3C. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Earnings Growth
Sector
Today
1 Jul
1 Apr
1 Jan
1 Oct
Basic Materials
-3.3%
3.4%
5.8%
-23.9%
24.1%
Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
12.1%
11.5%
9.4%
82.9%
136.6%
Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
-0.5%
2.5%
4.0%
36.7%
11.3%
Energy -40.6%
-35.3%
-56.7%
-25.7%
3.8%
Financials 2.7%
7.7%
13.3%
46.0%
14.4%
Healthcare 0.2%
2.6%
3.0%
5.0%
14.9%
Industrials 11.0%
14.3%
13.1%
15.5%
19.4%
Technology 10.0%
16.3%
14.8%
12.0%
16.3%
Telecommunications Services 14.6%
-0.2%
4.4%
13.1%
14.8%
Utilities 21.1%
-5.6%
0.9%
17.0%
10.3%
STOXX 600
-2.5%
-0.3%
-3.3%
13.4%
20.6%
Number of Companies Included in Estimate
263
259
238
156
113
Exhibit 4C. STOXX 600: Q4 2015 Earnings Growth
Sector
Today
1 Jul
1 Apr
1 Jan
Basic Materials
-4.3%
16.9%
23.1%
-2.4%
Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
25.6%
29.2%
29.0%
85.9%
Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
-0.9%
2.0%
2.5%
18.3%
Energy -16.4%
0.8%
-10.8%
-3.0%
Financials 620.6%
297.7%
57.5%
104.7%
Healthcare 13.3%
16.0%
20.5%
14.2%
Industrials 54.1%
38.3%
54.8%
17.5%
Technology 8.8%
12.8%
12.5%
18.0%
Telecommunications Services 211.6%
163.3%
-6.1%
7.6%
Utilities 56.3%
61.7%
24.8%
14.8%
STOXX 600
55.4%
51.3%
26.2%
21.4%
Number of Companies Included in Estimate
262
260
235
134
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Exhibit 5C. STOXX 600: Q1 2016 Earnings Growth
Sector
Today
1 Jul
1 Apr
Basic Materials
10.3%
-7.2%
0.5%
Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
6.0%
15.4%
12.6%
Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
30.3%
37.2%
11.0%
Energy -32.5%
2.7%
49.6%
Financials 9.8%
2.0%
18.6%
Healthcare 3.5%
1.4%
16.9%
Industrials -12.8%
-13.1%
14.2%
Technology 29.4%
34.3%
28.6%
Telecommunications Services 3.6%
1.1%
13.7%
Utilities 5.5%
18.7%
-2.5%
STOXX 600
0.3%
2.6%
21.9%
Number of Companies Included in Estimate
142
119
96
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Exhibit 6C. STOXX 600: Q2 2016 Earnings Growth
Sector
Today
1 Jul
Basic Materials
14.5%
-6.4%
Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
15.9%
10.7%
Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
93.0%
78.3%
Energy 11.7%
28.0%
Financials 16.6%
41.4%
Healthcare 9.1%
10.9%
Industrials 2.1%
2.0%
Technology 13.3%
24.5%
Telecommunications Services
8.5%
4.1%
Utilities -5.1%
11.1%
STOXX 600
13.4%
21.4%
Number of Companies Included in Estimate
126
101
Exhibit 7C. STOXX 600: CY 2015 Earnings Growth
Sector
Today
1 Jul
1 Apr
1 Jan
1 Oct
Basic Materials
-9.8%
-4.8%
2.6%
12.0%
17.5%
Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
18.4%
20.2%
18.5%
15.6%
16.5%
Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
-3.3%
-2.0%
-2.5%
8.4%
9.4%
Energy -39.4%
-32.1%
-39.7%
-7.6%
10.7%
Financials 36.5%
32.1%
20.6%
20.7%
20.7%
Healthcare 1.7%
2.6%
2.8%
7.6%
9.3%
Industrials 14.8%
17.4%
17.3%
14.9%
17.2%
Technology 12.8%
13.7%
15.2%
20.3%
20.2%
Telecommunications Services
36.4%
37.1%
35.2%
10.9%
8.7%
Utilities -1.6%
-1.7%
-0.9%
1.9%
4.4%
STOXX 600
8.1%
9.0%
5.9%
11.6%
14.9%
Number of Companies Included in Estimate
509
511
508
505
505
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Exhibit 8C. STOXX 600: CY 2016 Earnings Growth
Sector
Today
1 Jul
1 Apr
Basic Materials
15.8%
19.9%
17.6%
Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
13.9%
13.0%
13.5%
Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
7.4%
8.5%
8.6%
Energy 11.2%
26.0%
40.0%
Financials 7.6%
10.6%
11.7%
Healthcare 8.5%
9.3%
9.6%
Industrials 10.5%
11.2%
11.9%
Technology 16.8%
17.3%
14.8%
Telecommunications Services
12.6%
14.6%
14.8%
Utilities -1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
STOXX 600
9.6%
12.4%
13.6%
Number of Companies Included in Estimate
508
511
503
Exhibit 9C. STOXX 600: Actual Earnings Growth Rates
Sector 1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
Basic Materials
29.6%
26.5%
19.4%
13.3%
6.2%
Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services
28.7%
13.0%
18.9%
24.8%
17.8%
Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 2.2%
-12.4%
8.5%
25.8%
19.2%
Energy -32.1%
-22.7%
-3.2%
23.7%
-2.1%
Financials 37.0%
156.8%
23.5%
2.3%
-0.2%
Healthcare 4.5%
-8.6%
6.8%
2.1%
-1.0%
Industrials 40.9%
-21.8%
6.6%
12.4%
31.0%
Technology 21.6%
17.8%
35.5%
47.9%
47.2%
Telecommunications Services
30.9%
-55.0%
-2.6%
-11.9%
-32.0%
Utilities -12.1%
-18.5%
-3.4%
7.3%
-19.0%
STOXX 600
11.1%
7.7%
11.7%
11.1%
1.1%
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Exhibit 10C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Above/Match/Below)
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
Above 51%
50%
52%
48%
45%
Match 10%
8%
9%
8%
7%
Below 39%
43%
39%
44%
48%
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Exhibit 11C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Aggregate Difference)
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
Surprise Factor 10.3%
-5.7%
3.9%
4.0%
7.4%
NOTES / DEFINITIONS
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