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Colorado Front Range air quality 2014 AQAST update. David Edwards and Gabriele Pfister National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO

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Colorado Front Range air quality

2014 AQAST update

David Edwards and Gabriele Pfister

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Boulder, CO

(2)

AQAST 2013 Tiger Team Project

In collaboration with

Patrick Reddy, Gordon Pierce and Jane Mitchell

(CDPHE, Denver, CO)

Yang Liu and Matthew Strickland

(Emory University, GA)

Air Quality and Health Impacts from the

Summer 2012 Colorado Wildfires

Colorado experienced one of its most costly and

devastating fire seasons in 2012

Goal 1: Establish impacts of wildfires on Human health

 Epidemiological analysis based on hospital admissions and other health data

 Bring together air quality managers, health authorities and academic and

agency scientists

Goal 2: Quantify fire impact on AQ

(3)

Analysis of Satellite and Surface Observations & AQ Modeling of Fire Impact

and Exposure:

Satellite Retrievals: MODIS, IASI,

MOPITT, OMI

Surface Obs: EPA, CASTNET, NOAA Modeling: WRF-Chem

Document fire contribution on AQ and support exceedance demonstration Health Data provided by CDPHE Epidemiological Study on Fire Impact Evaluate effectiveness of current wildfire advisories

Fire Impact/Exposure Analysis

o Front Range - Complex topography and flow patterns o Diverse sources (urban, agriculture, oil/gas, fires….) o Long-range transport

o Fires: Highly variable source; localized impacts o Limited set of observations for evaluation

(4)

WRF-Chem Modeling

Numerous sets of simulations (12 km & 4 km) have been conducted

testing different meteorology, emissions, physics schemes, etc.

Meteorology

o Observation nudging and assimilation provide similar statistics, but neither

fully capture the complex flow patterns

o Data assimilation provides a more balanced simulation and indicates slightly

better agreement with observations, albeit computationally much more expensive for experimental runs

Anthropogenic emissions:

o Colorado specific only for 2008 and 2018: CDPHE 2008, AQMEII 2010,

projected NEI 2011, NEI 2011, CDPHE 2018

Fire emissions:

o NCAR/FINN too low and area burned underestimated by factor 2 compared to

independent data; improved with burned area calculations from SMARTFIRE

(5)

v v v v

Anthropogenic Emissions

+22% +27%

Colorado/CDPHE EI projected to 2018 / US EPA NEI 2011 / AQ Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII 2010)

NO

C

3

H

8

-200% San Juan Basin +70% Denver Basin

Piceance Basin Paradox Basin

Uintah Basin

(6)

Exceedance Demonstration

 Objective: Provide input to exceedance demonstration

(package submitted to EPA within 3 years of events)

 Identified Ozone Events (compiled by CDPHE):

 6/17/2012 Rocky Mountain NP  7/4/2012 Rocky Mountain NP  8/21/2012 Rocky Mountain NP  8/31/2012 Rocky Mountain NP

6/17 7/4

Surface Ozone @ Rocky Mountain NP

Observations WRF-Chem with QFED WRF-Chem no fires

6/17

7/4 Surface Monitors

(7)

CDPHE Identified Ozone Event 17

June 2012 – High Park Fire

(8)

Event 17 June 2012 – High Park Fire

WRF-Chem

with QFED Fires

WRF-Chem

without Fires

Daily Average PM2.5 Daily 8-hour Max Ozone

(9)
(10)

Event 4 July 2012 – Transport

(11)

CO Tropospheric Column

IASI

MOPITT

Aerosol Optical Depth

MODIS

WRF-Chem

(12)

Event 4 July 2012 – Transport

Daily Average PM2.5 Daily 8-hour Max Ozone

WRF-Chem

with QFED Fires

WRF-Chem

without Fires

(13)

Health Study

Yang Liu, Matt Strickland and Breanna Alman (Emory University)

Explore the relationship of PM2.5 with ED visits and acute hospitalizations for asthma and determine whether wildfire smoke was a contributing factor.

Increased PM2.5 from fires resulted in an increase in asthma ED visits and acute hospitalizations

One of the first studies to look at concentration-response effects of PM2.5 over a long-lasting fire period, and one of the first to cover such a large geographic area

Conditional Logistic Regression inputs at 12 km x 12 km for 1 June – 10 July, 2012

• CDPHE/Colorado Hospital Association

Hospitalization and Emergency Dept. Data

• CDPHE Hourly PM2.5 observations &

WRF-Chem exposure modeling

• North American Land Data Assimilation

System Temperature Data Concentration-Response Association

(14)

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado Department for Health and Environment (CDPHE), NASA Airborne Science Program, Colorado State University (CSU), University of Colorado Boulder, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),

National Park Service (NPS), Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC), UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, US Naval Academy, U of Wisconsin, U of Rhode Island, U of Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, GO3 Project, Aerodyne

Inc., and many others!

 High summertime ozone - non-attainment

 Complex topography and meteorology

active photochemistry

 Diverse set of emission sources (urban,

oil/gas, industrial, agriculture, biogenic, fires)

 Impact on downwind regions (central plains)

 Inflow from UT, WY, CA, and Asia

https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/frappe

(15)

Picture Courtesy: James Crawford, NASA

NASA P-3: Continuous mapping of aerosols (HSRL) and trace gas columns (ACAM)

NASA B-200: In situ profiling of aerosols and trace gases over surface sites

Ground: In situ trace gases and aerosols, Remote sensing of trace gas and aerosol columns, Ozonesondes, Aerosol lidar • NASA Falcon: GEO-TASO

(16)

NSF/NCAR C-130: In situ profiling of aerosols and trace gases

Ground: In-situ chemistry and aerosols, tethered balloon, wind profilers,

mobile vans, canisters, etc.

Chemical Modeling: Forecasting and Analysis

Tracer Forecast

(17)

Quantify sources and constrain inventories

– Transportation, Oil and Gas Extraction (-> AQAST Tiger Team), Power

Generation, Agricultural activities, Vegetation

Quantify the interaction and the overall impact of these emissions on

local and regional AQ

– Air mass composition (organics, oxidants, NOx)

– Climate impact

– Ozone and oxidant formation

– Formation and evolution of particulates

– Mountain induced recirculation – accumulation of pollutants

Quantify import of larger scale emissions and impact on local AQ

– UT and WY oil and gas extraction and power generation, California, Asian

emissions, potential wildfires

Relate Surface AQ to satellite measurements

Improve Meteorological and AQ Models

Provide scientific basis for informed decision making

(18)
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(20)
(21)

SCIAMACHY NO

2

Columns: May-Sep. 2010

Dots: Oil and Gas Wells

(22)

CDPHE Oil and Gas Regulation

• Recent State rules expanded to include regulation of methane leaks

• CDPHE has an aggressive inspection and enforcement program, including:

– annual inspections of major (>100 tpy) sources

– 4 full time FLIR (infrared) camera inspectors

– inspection of exploration and production operations

• CDPHE’s Oil and Gas team works collaboratively with other state, local and federal

officials as well as scientific, community groups, etc.

• The O&G team welcomes appropriate calls and reports of major leaks, etc. that

may be observed during the FRAPPE campaign

• All O&G operations required to post CDPHE identification numbers, permits, etc. on

location at the site

22

Courtesy: Gordon Pierce (CDPHE)

Over 51,000 active wells in Colorado

– Over 22,000 of these in the North Front Range

Over 8000 condensate tanks

Compressor stations, etc.

(23)

Concurrent with NASA DISCOVER-AQ 4th Deployment National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NASA Airborne Science Program

Colorado Department for Health and Environment (CDPHE), Colorado State University (CSU), University of Colorado Boulder, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 8,

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Park Service (NPS), Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC), UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, US Naval Academy, U of Wisconsin, U of Rhode Island, U of Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, GO3 Project, Aerodyne Inc.,

and others

• Characterize emissions from Oil & Gas (O&G) Operations on regional (aircraft) and local (mobile vans, surface stations) scales

• Distinguish methane from O&G from other sources (e.g. agriculture) using tracer correlations and methane isotopes

• Study transport of O&G emissions and mixing with pollution from other sources

• Relate FRAPPÉ results to previous U.S. wide studies • Evaluate Satellite Methane Retrieval Products

• Link to ongoing projects:

• North Front Range Oil and Gas Air Pollutant Emissions and Dispersion Study (CSU)

(24)

IASI and MOPITT Images

Past and in Near-Real time

www.acd.ucar.edu/acresp/mopitt-iasi/plots.shtml

Event 4 July 2012 – Transport

GOES Fire Detection

IASI CO Column

(25)

Daily Total NOx Emissions

June-July NOx Emissions

Fire Emissions

FINN with Smartfire burned area  NASA/QFED

FINN QFED

(26)

Event 4 July 2012 – Transport

Rocky Mountain National Park

(27)

"July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite

NO

2

in Colorado and other Western States”

(paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE)

40 50 60 70 80 5880 5890 5900 5910 5920 5930 5940 5950 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010 2011 2012

Rocky Flats North

Denver July Mean 500 mb Height in Meters

Ju ly M ea n D ai ly M ax 8 -h r O3 i n p p b R-Squared = 0.86

High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights

Observed Surface Ozone and 500mb Height Re-Analysis

(28)

"July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite

NO

2

in Colorado and other Western States”

(paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE)

Analysis: Gabriele Pfister

High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights

Statistical Analysis of 13 year-long regional climate simulations

(29)

"July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite

NO

2

in Colorado and other Western States”

(paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE)

Analysis: Gabriele Pfister

High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights

Statistical Analysis of 13 year-long regional climate simulations

(30)

Current and Next Steps

Proposal to BLM (declined) and NIH (to be submitted) for

continuation of health study (multiple summers)

Finalize set of model simulations and continue through August

Compose documentation for exceedance demonstration by 2015

Results from FRAPPÉ are expected to provide important information

on improving model simulations (emission constraints, data for

evaluating and refining model configuration, etc.)

(31)

Workshop Presentations

• Air Quality and Oil & Gas Development in the Rocky Mountain Region Workshop, October 2013, Boulder CO: “FRAPPÉ: The Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry

Éxperiment” (G. Pfister)

2013 Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop, July 2013, Boulder, CO: “Modeling Ozone

Exceptional Events: California, 2008 & Colorado/Wyoming, 2012” (G. Pfister)

• WESTAR Wildfire and Ozone Exceptional Events Meeting, Sacramento, CA, March 2013, “Modeling Ozone Exceptional Events: California, 2008 & Colorado/Wyoming, 2012” (G.

Pfister)

Presentations and Outreach for FRAPPÉ

(Media, AQ Organizations (APCD, RAQC, ...), Industry (COGA, CO Energy Coalition,...), Non-profit groups (Rotary Club, Lung Association,...), etc.

https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/frappe

https://www.eol.ucar.edu/field_projects/frappe

https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/frappe www.acd.ucar.edu/acresp/mopitt-iasi/plots.shtml https://www.eol.ucar.edu/field_projects/frappe http://ucarconnect.ucar.edu/features/air-quality-research

References

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