CHINESE ONSHORE BONDS
January 20
th, 2015
The Largest Market You Haven’t Heard Of
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
Global X Funds | S&P Dow Jones Indices | GF International Investment Management
Ltd.
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
OVERVIEW
Intro by ETF.com
Jay Jacobs (Global X)
Brief overview of Chinese fixed income landscape
» Opening the onshore market
James Rieger (S&P Dow Jones Indices)
Data on the Onshore Bond Market
» Correlations, liquidity, yields
» S&P China Composite Select Bond Index
Sharon Yang (GF International Investment Management Limited)
Chinese Onshore Bond Exposures
» Interbank Market vs. Exchanges
» Government and Quasi-government Bond Issuers
» Chinese Currency
Q&A
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
CHINESE FIXED INCOME MARKET LANDSCAPE
Historically, China’s onshore capital markets have been largely closed to foreign investors. Therefore, investors have used securities trading in Hong Kong to gain access to China.
Hong Kong Mainland China
Nomenclature Dim Sum Bonds, ‘Offshore bonds’ ‘Onshore bonds’
Currency CNH (offshore Renminbi) CNY (onshore Renminbi)
Openness Open to foreign investors Closed to foreign investors except those with QFII/RQFII
1access
Issuers
Chinese Government, Chinese Corporations, Foreign Companies (16% of market)
Currently limited to only Chinese entities (government, agency, corporations, etc.)
This information does not constitute an offer of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services will be offered by Global X Management only after delivery of certain information and disclosures to prospective clients. This information is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Securities mentioned, comments made, or charts included also are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth above and are subject to change.
1QFII: Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor, RQFII: Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor. QFII and RQFII schemes established to facilitate regulated foreign access to mainland Chinese securities
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
CHINESE FIXED INCOME MARKET LANDSCAPE
Historically , China’s onshore capital markets have been largely closed to foreign investors. Therefore, investors have used securities trading in Hong Kong to gain access to China.
• Bonds issued and traded in Hong Kong by the Chinese Government, Corporations, and Foreign Companies
Dim Sum Bonds
• Shares of companies incorporated in mainland China and listed on HKSE
H Shares
• Shares of Chinese State Owned Enterprises incorporated outside of China and listed on HKSE
Red Chips
• Shares of private sector Chinese companies incorporated outside of China and listed on HKSE
P Chips
This information does not constitute an offer of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services will be offered by Global X Management only after delivery of certain information and disclosures to prospective clients. This information is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Securities mentioned, comments made, or charts included also are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth above and are subject to change.
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
4%
Onshore vs. Offshore Bond Market Size
Onshore Bonds Offshore Bonds 96%
CHINESE FIXED INCOME MARKET SIZE
China’s Onshore Bond market is the 3rd largest in the world
36%
19%
13%
6%
5%
21%
% of EM Bond Space
China Brazil Korea
India Mexico Other
Source: S&P, Wind, Asian Development Bank 2014
This information does not constitute an offer of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services will be offered by Global X Management only after delivery of certain information and disclosures to prospective clients. This information is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Securities mentioned, comments made, or charts included also are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth above and are subject to change.
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
ONSHORE BONDS
• Onshore Bonds typically have offered higher yields than their onshore counterparts and other major debt markets
Attractive Yield
• Exposure to the official Chinese currency (CNY)
Currency Exposure
• Low Correlation with other Emerging and Developed Market Debt
Diversification
This information does not constitute an offer of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services will be offered by Global X Management only after delivery of certain information and disclosures to prospective clients. This information is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Securities mentioned, comments made, or charts included also are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth above and are subject to change.
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
CHINESE FIXED INCOME MARKET ACCESS
From 2011 to 2014, major changes have been made to open China’s capital markets to foreign investors
• 2011: Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) Scheme established
• 2012: Quota granted for first A-Share ETF in Hong Kong
• 2013: RQFII rules revised to allow for access to China’s Interbank Bond Market
• 2014: First onshore Chinese Bond ETFs launch in US
With the intra-day liquidity and open ended structure of ETFs, investors now have unprecedented access to onshore Chinese markets
This information does not constitute an offer of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services will be offered by Global X Management only after delivery of certain information and disclosures to prospective clients. This information is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Securities mentioned, comments made, or charts included also are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth above and are subject to change.
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution.
PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Fixed Income Indices:
CHINA ONSHORE BONDS
J.R. Rieger – Global Head of Fixed Income
January 20, 2015
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices. 9
CHINA BOND MARKET COMPOSITION CHINA BOND LIQUIDITY
CHINA BOND MARKET–LOW CORRELATION TO DEVELOPED MARKETS
01 02 03
04 S&P CHINA COMPOSITE SELECT BOND INDEX
FIXED INCOME INDICES: CHINA ONSHORE BONDS
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
CHINA BOND MARKET COMPOSITION
10 Source: Asian Development B. Data as of June 30, 2014. Charts and tables are provided for illustrative purposes.
35% 35%
10%
8%
4% 4%
2% 1% 1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Market Size: CNY 33.8 trillion (USD 5.5 trillion)
3
rd-Largest Bond Market
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
CHINA BOND LIQUIDITY
11 Source: Asian Development B. Data as of June 30, 2014. Charts and tables are provided for illustrative purposes.
15
32.5
7.6
20
15
5.1
2.2 4 2.7
4.1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2000 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
BPS
Local Currency–Government Bond Bid-Ask Spreads
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
CHINA BONDS–LOW CORRELATION TO DEVELOPED MARKETS
12 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Charts and tables are provided for illustrative purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
7-Year Correlation to the S&P China Bond Index
Index Beta Correlation Return (%) Risk (%) Return/Risk
S&P China Bond Index 1 1 4.15 2.68 1.6
S&P Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index 0.3 0.1 3.47 6.78 0.5
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index 0.1 0 4.69 3.61 1.3
1.7566 3.96
0.175 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
junio 2005 junio 2006 junio 2007 junio 2008 junio 2009 junio 2010 junio 2011 junio 2012 junio 2013 junio 2014
5-Year Government Bond Yields
US Germany China Japan
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Correlation data from September 2007 to September 2014. Charts and tables are provided for illustrative purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
S&P CHINA COMPOSITE SELECT BOND INDEX
13 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Jan. 8, 2015..Tables are provided for illustrative purposes.
The S&P China Composite Select Bond Index is designed
to track the performance of Chinese sovereign bonds, agency bonds and bonds issued
by Central State-Owned Enterprises (CSOEs) denominated in Chinese yuan.
Number of Constituents 414
Total Par Value (CNY Millions) 8,922,393 Market Value Outstanding (CNY Millions) 9,224,322
Weighted Average Coupon (%) 4.47
Weighted Average Maturity (Years) 3.59
Weighted Average Price 100.98
Yield to Worst (%) 4.18
Modified Duration 3.14
S&P China Composite Select Bond Index
Agency Bonds (32%)
China Development Bank Corporation (23%)
Agricultural Development Bank of China (4.5%)
The Export-Import Bank of China (4.5%) Chinese Sovereign Bonds (23%)
CSOEs (45%) Inclusion Rules
• Maturity Range 1-7 Years
• Fixed Rate, Non-Zero Coupon Bonds
Tickers
• S&P China Composite Select Bond Index (USD): SPBCNSUT
• S&P China Composite Select Bond Index (CNY): SPBCNSIT
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
GENERAL DISCLAIMER
14
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For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
PERFORMANCE DISCLOSURE
15
The S&P China Composite Select Bond Index was launched on September 30th, 2014. All information presented prior to the launch date is back-tested. Back-tested performance is not actual performance, but is hypothetical. The back-test calculations are based on the same methodology that was in effect when the index was officially launched. Complete index methodology details are available at www.spdji.com. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
S&P Dow Jones Indices defines various dates to assist our clients in providing transparency on their products. The First Value Date is the first day for which there is a calculated value (either live or back-tested) for a given index. The Base Date is the date at which the Index is set at a fixed value for calculation purposes. The Launch Date designates the date upon which the values of an index are first considered live: index values provided for any date or time period prior to the index’s Launch Date are considered back-tested. S&P Dow Jones Indices defines the Launch Date as the date by which the values of an index are known to have been released to the public, for example via the company’s public website or its data feed to external parties. For Dow Jones-branded indicates introduced prior to May 31, 2013, the Launch Date (which prior to May 31, 2013, was termed “Date of introduction”) is set at a date upon which no further changes were permitted to be made to the index methodology, but that may have been prior to the Index’s public release date.
Past performance of the Index is not an indication of future results. Prospective application of the methodology used to construct the Index may not result in performance commensurate with the back-test returns shown. The back-test period does not necessarily correspond to the entire available history of the Index. Please refer to the methodology paper for the Index, available at www.spdji.com for more details about the index, including the manner in which it is rebalanced, the timing of such rebalancing, criteria for additions and deletions, as well as all index calculations.
Another limitation of using back-tested information is that the back-tested calculation is generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. Back-tested information reflects the application of the index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No hypothetical record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, there are numerous factors related to the equities, fixed income, or commodities markets in general which cannot be, and have not been accounted for in the preparation of the index information set forth, all of which can affect actual performance.
The Index returns shown do not represent the results of actual trading of investable assets/securities. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC maintains the Index and calculates the Index levels and performance shown or discussed, but does not manage actual assets. Index returns do not reflect payment of any sales charges or fees an investor may pay to purchase the securities underlying the Index or investment funds that are intended to track the performance of the Index. The imposition of these fees and charges would cause actual and back-tested performance of the securities/fund to be lower than the Index performance shown. As a simple example, if an index returned 10% on a US $100,000 investment for a 12-month period (or US $10,000) and an actual asset-based fee of 1.5% was imposed at the end of the period on the investment plus accrued interest (or US $1,650), the net return would be 8.35% (or US $8,350) for the year. Over a three year period, an annual 1.5% fee taken at year end with an assumed 10% return per year would result in a cumulative gross return of 33.10%, a total fee of US $5,375, and a cumulative net return of 27.2% (or US $27,200).
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices. 16
Contact Us
J. R. Rieger
Global Head of Fixed Income New York: (212) 438-5266 [email protected]
Kevin Horan
Director, Fixed Income New York: (212) 438-8814 [email protected]
Heather McArdle
Director, Fixed Income New York: (212) 438-3927 [email protected]
Jaime Merino
Director, Latin America Fixed Income Mexico City: +52 55 5081-4525 [email protected]
Michele Leung
Associate Director, Asia Fixed Income Hong Kong: +852-25328041
Tyler Cling
Sr. Manager, Fixed Income New York: (212) 438-0581 [email protected]
THANK YOU
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
A LOOK INTO ONSHORE BONDS
THE MARKETS
Interbank
• Wholesale market for institutional investors
• Highest Liquidity
Exchange
• Non-financial institutions and individual investors
• Lower Liquidity
OTC
• Non-financial institutions and individual investors
• Lower Liquidity
% of Total Trading Volume
Interbank Shanghai SE Shenzhen SE
% of Amount Outstanding
Interbank Exchange OTC & Other Source: S&P, Wind, Asian Development Bank 2014
This information does not constitute an offer of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services will be offered by Global X Management only after delivery of certain information and disclosures to prospective clients. This information is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Securities mentioned, comments made, or charts included also are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth above and are subject to change.
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
A LOOK INTO ONSHORE BONDS
THE ISSUERS
Bond Type Issuer Listing Venue
Government Bonds Ministry of Finance Interbank, Exchange
Policy Bank Bonds
1. China Development Bank Corporation 2. Agricultural Development Bank of China 3. The Export-Import Bank of China
Interbank
Central State-Owned
Enterprises Bonds (CSOEs)
Chinese corporations directly governed by SASAC and are typically entities focused on strategic sectors such as:
-State Grid Corp of China (Electric Power) -China National Petroleum Corp (Energy) -Wuhan Iron and Steel Group Corp (Manufacturing)
Interbank, Exchange
Non-Government Corporate Bonds
Companies without substantial government ownership, such as:
-Zhejiang Geely Holding (Consumer Goods) -Tianrui Group Cement (Materials)
Interbank, Exchange
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, GF International
This information does not constitute an offer of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services will be offered by Global X Management only after delivery of certain information and disclosures to prospective clients. This information is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Securities mentioned, comments made, or charts included also are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth above and are subject to change.
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
A LOOK INTO ONSHORE BONDS
THE CURRENCY
CNH (Offshore Renminbi) CNY (Onshore Renminbi) Traded in markets outside Mainland China Traded in Mainland China
Currency exposure for Dim Sum Bonds Currency exposure for Onshore Bonds Not freely transferable to/from China Official Currency of China
Floating
2FX Rate determined by free markets Managed floating FX rate introduced by PBoC Premium/Discount of CNY vs. CNH over time
This information does not constitute an offer of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services will be offered by Global X Management only after delivery of certain information and disclosures to prospective clients. This information is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Securities mentioned, comments made, or charts included also are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth above and are subject to change.
Source: Bloomberg (8/23/2010– 1/7/2015)
2A floating foreign exchange (FX) rate regime means a currency’s value fluctuates based on market expectations of a currency’s value. A managed FX rates means a country’s central bank plays an active role in managing the FX rate.
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
A LOOK INTO ONSHORE BONDS
THE CURRENCY
Time Policy
Pre-
2005 CNY pegged to the USD.
Jul-05
Introduced a managed floating
exchange rate. CNY would be allowed to float within a specified daily trading band of +/-0.3% against a basket of world currencies.
May-07
The specified daily trading band of CNY’s managed floating exchange rate was extended to +/-0.5%.
Aug-08 CNY re-pegged with the USD due to US subprime crisis.
Jun-10
CNY would be allowed to float within a specified daily trading band of +/-0.5%
against a basket of world currencies.
Apr-12
The specified daily trading band of CNY’s managed floating exchange rate was extended to +/- 1%.
Mar-14
The specified daily trading band of CNY’s managed floating exchange rate was extended to +/- 2%.
USD vs. CNY over time
This information does not constitute an offer of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services will be offered by Global X Management only after delivery of certain information and disclosures to prospective clients. This information is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Securities mentioned, comments made, or charts included also are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth above and are subject to change.
Source: Bloomberg (8/23/2010– 1/7/2015), GF International
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
CHINA OUTLOOK
• Accommodative Monetary Environment
• Support economic growth
• Reasonable level of inflation risk
• High interest rate in real terms
• Mild Currency Appreciation
• Accelerate CNY internationalization process
• Avoid capital outflows
This information does not constitute an offer of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services will be offered by Global X Management only after delivery of certain information and disclosures to prospective clients. This information is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Securities mentioned, comments made, or charts included also are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth above and are subject to change.
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
GLOBAL X GF CHINA BOND ETF
Access the high end of the credit quality spectrum in China with the first US ETF to access the Chinese Interbank Bond Market
Attractive Yield*: 3.82% 30-Day SEC Yield
Currency Play: Exposure to official Chinese currency (CNY)
Diversification: Historically low correlation to other developed and emerging market debt
*As of 1/14/2015. Unsubsidized SEC Yield 3.74%
© GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC. For institutional use only. All numbers are approximate.
DISCLOSURE
*Pursuant to an Expense Limitation Agreement, the Adviser has agreed to reimburse or waive fees and/or limit Fund expenses to the extent necessary to assure that the operating expenses of the Fund will not exceed 0.50% of the Fund's average daily net assets per year until at least November 19, 2015.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when sold or
redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. For performance data current to the most recent month end, please call 1-888-GXFUND-1 or visit our website at www.globalxfunds.com
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. International investments may involve risk of unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, differences in generally accepted accounting principles, or economic or political instability in other nations. The Fund is non-diversified. Because the Fund’s investments are concentrated in Chinese bonds that are concentrated in the financials sector, the Fund will be susceptible to loss due to adverse occurrences affecting this country and sector.
The information presented here is for informational purposes only. It was prepared on information and sources that we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or guarantees as to the accuracy or the completeness of the information contained herein.
Carefully consider the Funds’ investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be found in the Funds’ prospectus, which may be obtained by calling 1-888-GX- FUND-1 (1.888.493.8631), or by visiting www.globalxfunds.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Global X Management Company, LLC serves as an advisor to the Global X Funds. The Funds are distributed by SEI Investments Distribution Co., which is not affiliated with Global X Management Company or any of its affiliates.
Expenses Performance Since Inception to 12/31/2014
Gross Expenses 0.58% Fund NAV -1.52%
Net Expenses* 0.50% Closing Price -1.63%
Inception date: 11/18/2014 S&P China Composite Select Bond Index -0.73%