Anvendelse af vejrradar til forudsigelse af kraftig regn

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Anvendelse af vejrradar til

forudsigelse af kraftig regn

Michael R. Rasmussen – Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark

₁

(Baltrad.eu)

Michael R. Rasmussen

Dept. of Civil Engineering

Aalborg University, Denmark

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Content of the presentation

• Background for why I work with weather radars

• Weather radar technology – how does it work and where do I get the data from?

• Example of application for real time control of Storm drainage and wastewater

treatment systems

• Can we use weather radar data for protection of transportation infrastructure

(YES)

• Ongoing research and development

• Student project –

WITI

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Aalborg den 19 Juni 2006

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Background

Storm and Wastewater Informatics (SWI) (2007-2011)

Vejrradar Baseret Styring af Spildevandssystemer (VBSS I) (2008-2009)

Vejrradar Baseret Styring af Spildevandssystemer (VBSS II) (2009-2010)

Baltrad (2009 – 2012)

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How does weather radars work ?

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LAWR – X-Bånd

_{DMI – C-Bånd}

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Online data availability

X-bånd (Århus)

X-bånd (Aalborg)

X-bånd (Hvidovre)

X-Bånd (Hørsholm)

X-bånd (Odense)

X-bånd (Vejle)

X-bånd (Egedal)

C-band Radars, range 240 km

Danish Metrological Institute (DMI)

2000 x 2000 m spatial resolution

10 min. temporal resolution

Marine X-band Radars, range 60 km

Developed by DHI

500 x 500 m ,

100 x 100 m

spatial resolution,

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Spatial resolution

₁₃

2 x 2 km

(NEXRAD)

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Spatial resolution

Kilde: COWI A/S og Aalborg kommune, 2007

100 x 100 m

(LAWR)

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Comparison between C- and X-band radar

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C-Band (Sindal – DMI)

X-Band (Aalborg )

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Vejr model

(HIRLAM)

C-Bånd vejrradar

X-Bånd vejrradar

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Vejrradar Baseret Styring af Spildevandssystemer

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Regn prognose servere (AAU) Århus SRO/PLC Afløbs-prognose server (Krüger) Århus Radar PC Aalborg SRO/PLC Aalborg Radar PC regn prognose

Regn prognose

₁₉

Odense SRO/PLC Odense Radar PC Holstebro SRO/PLC Hvidovre SRO/PLC Hvidovre Radar PC Åben web: Flow/niveau prognoser Åben web: Animeret radar prognoser Holstebro DMI radar

Regn prognose

middel for deloplandet

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Regn prognose servere (AAU) Århus SRO/PLC Afløbs-prognose server (Krüger) Århus Radar PC Odense SRO/PLC Odense Radar PC Aalborg SRO/PLC Aalborg Radar PC Åben web: Flow/niveau Åben web: Animeret radar regn prognose

regn prognosen

pr ec ipi tat ion snow storage daily temperature pr ec ipi tat ion snow storage daily temperature Holstebro SRO/PLC Hvidovre SRO/PLC Hvidovre Radar PC prognoser prognoser Holstebro DMI radar di ur nal v a ri at ion indir e c t runof f s low runof f flow measurement s a tu ra ti o n s tor age normal potential evaporation dir e c t runof f di ur nal v a ri at ion indir e c t runof f indir e c t runof f s low runof f s low runof f flow measurement flow measurement s a tu ra ti o n s tor age normal potential evaporation dir e c t runof f dir e c t runof f

afløbsmodel

flow/niveau

prognose

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Regn prognose servere (AAU) Århus SRO/PLC Afløbs-prognose server (Krüger) Århus Radar PC Odense SRO/PLC Odense Radar PC Aalborg SRO/PLC Aalborg Radar PC Åben web: Flow/niveau Åben web: Animeret radar regn prognose

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Holstebro SRO/PLC Hvidovre SRO/PLC Hvidovre Radar PC prognoser prognoser Holstebro DMI radar

flow/niveau

prognose

SRO

_målinger

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Kl. 13:00

Kl. 11:00 + 2 timer

Kl. 12:00 + 1 time

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Combined weather radar and hydraulic forecast

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Visibility

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Can we use weather radar for climate change mitigation?

• Prediction

of

when

and

where

extreme precipitation will occur

• Estimate

return periods of the rain (severity) in order to activate

emergency

response

• Warn

motorist though information systems about severe weather

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YES WE CAN !

CAN WE USE WEATHER RADAR FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION?

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Under Construction………

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Stochastic calibration approach – preliminiary results

It is then possible to calculate the best set of parameters conditional on the

observed rain and to calculate confidence bands

0 35

0.4

0.45 Radar, stationary calibration

Rain gauge

Radar, dynamical calibration (best fit)

03:00

0 06:00

09:00

12:00

15:00

18:00

21:00

00:00

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35 04-Aug-2008

R

ain

in

te

ns

ity

(

mm/m

in

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W

eather

I

nformatics for

T

ransportation

I

nfrastructures

(WITI)

Student Project

VD - AAU

(2010 – 2012)

Malte Ahm

Advance prognosis tool for extreme

precipitation along roads , highways and

railroads

Combination with risk assessment tools

(e.g Blue Spot analysis)

Precursor to hydrological and hydraulic

models for flooding and erosion

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