Modelling the Earth System. Understanding and predicting climate changes and fluctuations

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Modelling the Earth System

Understanding and predicting

climate changes and fluctuations

IPSL Climate Modelling Centre

J-L Dufresne

02/02/2014

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Presentation

 ICMC started in 1995. At that time major climate groups were already existing

 Integration of the various scientific topics necessary to built and ESM, distributed among the different IPSL laboratories

 A multi-disciplinary approach of the climate system and a coherent study of past, current and future climate changes were adopted since the beginning

 About 100-150 persons contribute to ICMC (LMD, LSCE, LOCEAN, LATMOS mainly)

 Organisation: a steering committee, 13 working groups, a board, a leader

 Location: in Jussieu and Gif-sur-Yvette, mainly

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Institut Pierre Simon Laplace _{Journées du Comité de visite de l’AERES à l’IPSL : 3-4 février 2014} Page 3

Presentation

 _{The main fields of interest are:}

 Anthropogenic climate changes

 Paleoclimate

 Cloud feedbacks

 Climate-bieogeochemistry feedbacks

 _{Chemical composition}  Variability, predictability

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Development of the IPSL-CM

climate model

• 1995: ICMC beginning

• 1997: first Atm-Ocean coupled run with the IPSL model

• 1997: PMIP1 simulations, small contribution to CMIP1 & 2

• 2001: coupled climate-carbon simulation

• 2003-2005: contribution to CMIP3 (and IPCC AR4) with IPSL-CM4

• 2004-2009: broad development of IPSL-CM4

2003 2009

•

IPSL-CM5:

gather the

various developments in a

single, common model

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The IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model

All models are developed at IPSL, except the coupler

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The IPSL-CM models for CMIP5

IPSL-CM5A-MR Medium Resolution atm: 2.5°x1.25°L39 oce: 2° L31 IPSL-CM5A-LR Low Resolution atm: 3.75°x2°L39 oce: 2° L31 IPSL-CM5B-LR Low Resolution atm: 3.75°x2°L39 oce: 2° L31

Earth System Model

Same + New atmospheric parameterisations

PBL: thermal plumes and cloud scheme Cold pools

Triggering and closure of convection

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latitude

Ozone zonal mean

[Bekki et al. 2013, Dufresne et al. 2013]

O3 co nc ent ra tio n ( ppb) [Szopa et al., 2013]

Mean ozone near surface

particulate organic matter Black Carbone Sulphates

Radiative forcing (W.m-2₎

Aerosols in 2100

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Permissible CO

₂

emissions

RCP8.5 RCP6.0 RCP4.5 RCP2.6 Ca rbo n si nk ( PgC /y ) Historical 0 10 20 30 Ca rbon Em iss ion ( Pg C /y ) 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 A tm os ph er ic CO 2 ( p pm )

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Institut Pierre Simon Laplace _{Journées du Comité de visite de l’AERES à l’IPSL : 3-4 février 2014} Page 9 Can the initialisation of the ocean

improve the climate predictability?

• Understand the processes at play over the last 60 years

• Focus on the North Atlantic and the

meridional overturning circulation using IPSL-CM5A-LR

• Mt Agung eruption leads to an AMOC maximum 15 after

• Adding the SST anomalies increase the second maximum through NAO signature on the SST (cooling) and increase in

convection a few years earlier

Historical Reconstructions Initialised Control AMOC at 48°N [Swingedouw et al. 2013]

Decadal predictability

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

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Data distribution and

CMIP5 analysis

 _{Large ensemble of simulations}_{, from paleoclimate to aquaplanets}  180 simulations (+ decadal), 25 000 years, 3 models, 800 variables

 Due to the lack of maturity of ESGF, we have to install the data nodes and to distribute the data ourselves.

IPSL

 20 papers on IPSL-CM5 model

analysis in a special issue of Clim. Dynamics

 _{Down-load part of the}_CMIP5

data base on the IPSL data centre (Prodiguer-Ciclad) to facilitate multi-model analysis

 More than 20 additional papers already published based on

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Paleoclimate study using a

proxy simulator

Last glacial maximum

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Paleoclimate study using a

proxy simulator

IPSL-ESM + proxy simulators ● biomes

● foraminifera _{[Kageyama et al, C Dyn 2013]}

Dexport (DMG – PI)

Dabundance [G.Ruber] (DMG – PI)

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Past and future precipitation changes

Mid-Holocene - preindustrial – future

(RCP8.5)

H o lo ce n e - PI H o lo ce n e - PI Future - PI mm/d [Schmidt et al, 2013] Fu tu re PI group 1 group 3

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Climate sensitivity

Cloud Feedbacks

[Vial, et al., 2013] _feedbackscloud

Inter-model spread of the climate feedbacks

 The spread of climate sensitivity is still mainly due to cloud feedbacks

 The response of low level clouds plays a dominant role in this spread

 Half of this spread may be explain by the strength of the mixing

between the PBL and the free troposphere

[Sherwood, et al., 2014 Norm al iz ed int er m odel standa rd devia ti on

Climate sensitivity vs mixing strength in present-day climate

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 _{The IPSL-CM5 model represents a major step}_{in the development of}

parameterizations and in the coupling between physical and many biogeochemical processes

 The IPSL contribution to CMIP5 represents a qualitative step forward

compared to CMIP3: large amount of model simulations, large diversities of experiments, many publications on IPSL-CM5 model analysis and on multi-model CMIP5 analysis

 The IPSL is an important actor of these international projects: choice of the experiments, comparison with observations, model documentation,

tools for ESGF…

CMIP5 lessons:

 Major biases remains in most of the CMIP5 models, including IPSL-CM5 (small improvements between CMIP3 and CMIP5)

 Large spread in climate change estimate, even for basic quantities (generally small or no decrease between CMIP3 and CMIP5)

IPSL contribution to CMIP5

CMIP5 experiments analysis

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Prospective:

Better representation of processes

Atmospheric parameterisations

Dx= Dy= 1km

clouds

LES/CRM simulations, case study LMDZ in single column mode

same forcings

LMDZ in zoomed/nudged mode and/or with analysis restarts Large domain CRM simulations

• Diurnal cycle, coupling with surface

• Intermittent precipitation (stochastic triggering of convection)

In collaboration with CNRM

• Organised convection

• Micro et macro-physique of clouds

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Prospective:

Ocean and Ice-sheets

• Fresh water flux due to ice-sheet melting

• Outbreak and transport of icebergs

• Ocean- Ice shelf interactions • Increase of horizontal (1° and 0.25°) and

vertical (75 layers) resolution • Diurnal cycle

• Physical parameterisations • Mesh refining in key regions • New sea-ice model

In collaboration with LGGE, Grenoble In collaboration with Brest, Grenoble, UCL

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Prospective:

Climate-biogeochemistry interactions

Ocean:

•Variable stoichiometry (Fe, Chl, C, Si, P, N)

•More plankton types, diatoms •Link with marine resources •Coupling with aerosols and

chemistry

Land:

•New hydrology •Nitrogen cycle •Fires

•High latitudes (snow, permafrost…) •Surface exchanges

•Forest and agriculture management

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Prospective:

Refining spatial resolution

Ocean: domain nesting

Atmosphere: grid refinement

Example of domains:

• Mediterranean • Europe

• West Africa • India

• China – South Est Asia • South America

• Antarctica • Greenland

Planed work:

• Automation of tools

• ESM (chemistry, aerosols…) • Coupling with the ocean

(West-Africa – Gulf of Guinea, Arctic basin…)

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Institut Pierre Simon Laplace _{Journées du Comité de visite de l’AERES à l’IPSL : 3-4 février 2014}

Prospective:

New dynamical core

degrees nb cores year/day

3 320 100 1 1 280 20 ½ 11 520 17 ¼ 81 920 14 Plans: • Stretched grid • Non hydrostatic

• In the IPSL-CM model

• Deep atmospheres (planets)

LMDZ DYNAMICO Number of cores 4096 Number of si mul ated year/day 4 256

DYNAMICO: new dynamical

core, icosahedral

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Bench for a low resolution model

(96x96 L39)

Bench with different resolutions

Present:

• New transport schema • Quasi-uniform mesh • Energy conserving

Participation to the ICOMEX project Collaborations with applied mathematic Collaboration with IIT Delhi (OP Sharma)

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Prospective:

Improvement of the modelling platform

• To ensure efficient and reliable execution of climate models on new computer architectures

• To develop a national platform capable of running large ensembles of simulations with a suite of models

• To handle the complex and voluminous datasets generated

• To facilitate the evaluation and validation of the models and the use of higher resolution models.

ANR-project numerical methods

CONVERGENCE(2013-2017)

IPSL, CNRM, CERFACS IDRIS, MS

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Prospective:

Contribution to CMIP6

• IPSLCM1/2 (1994-2001) • IPSLCM4 (2003-2009) • IPSLCM5 (2008-2014) • IPSLCM6 (2014-…) 4° 2° 1° 0.5° 0.25° CMIP3 PMIP2 CMIP5 PMIP3 Tests CMIP2 PMIP1 1/12° Tests CMIP6

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Involvement in international programs or projects

 _{Very active in the WCRP (co-}_{lead of WGCM, CFMIP, PMIP, C4MIP…),}

IGBP (PAGES), ENES

 _{Important contribution to CMIP5, PMIP3, CFMIP, C4MIP , ACCMIP,}

GeoMIP, LUCID, AEROCOM…

 _{Active in the preparation of the IPCC AR5 (7 CLA, LA or RE)}  _{International working groups: ESGF}

 _{European projects: IS-ENES, Metafore, Euclipse}_{, Combine, Embrace…}  _{National level: very active collaborations with Météo-France, Cerfacs,}

LGGE, LPO

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Our Challenges

 _{To improve the representation of processes and the characteristics of}

the simulated climate

 _{To integrate the new dynamical core and to face the very high}

parallelism challenges

 _{To consolidate the model and data analysis platforms}

 _{To face the new requirements that arises from the emergence of the} “climate services”

 _{To pursue the analysis of climate changes and variability, with a focus on}

past versus future changes, complex versus simplified configurations, better understanding, use of observations

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The support we are looking for:

 The recognition of the specificity of a climate modelling centre (work requiring close collaboration between many persons, with different interests in different domains of expertise) and the fragility introduced by too many and too complex structures, with possible opposite

interests (IDEX, OSU…)

 The labelling of the IPSL-CM model and the data analysis platform, and the need of long term supports

 ICMC, as such, recognized as a direct partner of the national computer centers and infrastructures, with a need of dedicated and specific

resources

 The possibility to promote scientific positions to fill a missing expertise that is not a priority for the laboratories

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Modelling platform(IPSL-ESM)

Arnaud Caubel (LSCE) - Marie-Alice Foujols (IPSL)

Data Archive and Access Requirements Sébastien Denvil (IPSL) - Karim Ramage (IPSL) Atmospheric and surface physics and

dynamics (LMDZ)

Frédéric Hourdin (LMD) - Laurent Fairhead (LMD) Ocean and sea ice physics and dynamics

(NEMO-OPA,NEMO-LIM)

C Ethé (IPSL) - Claire Lévy - Gurvan Madec (LOCEAN)

Atmosphere and ocean interactions (IPSL-CM,

different resolutions)

Sébastien Masson (LOCEAN) - Olivier Marti (LSCE)

Biogeochemical cycles (NEMO-TOP-PISCES)

Laurent Bopp (LSCE) - Patricia Cadule (IPSL)

Current and future climate changes Jean-Louis Dufresne(LMD) - Olivier Boucher (LMD)

Paleoclimate and last millennium Pascale Braconnot - Masa Kageyama (LSCE)

“Near-term” prediction (seasonal to decadal)

Eric Guilyardi (LOCEAN) - Juliette Mignot (LOCEAN)

Evaluation of the models, present-day and future climate change analysis

Sandrine Bony (LMD) - Patricia Cadule (IPSL) - Marion Marchand (LATMOS) - Juliette Mignot

(LOCEAN) – Jérôme Servonnat (LSCE) Regional climates

Robert Vautard (LSCE), Laurent Li (LMD)

Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols (INCA,

INCA_aer, Reprobus)

Anne Cozic (LSCE) - M. Marchand (LATMOS)

Continental processes (ORCHIDEE)

Philippe Peylin (LSCE) - Josefine Ghattas (IPSL)

Organisation of IPSL Climate Modelling Centre

Head: J-L Dufresne; Board: J-L Dufresne; L. Bopp, MA Foujols, J. Mignot