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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.

Cheap for a reason

We upgrade our rating for FGV to Hold from Reduce as we see limited downside for the stock from current levels, with the market already valuing its plantation estates at below the replacement cost of new planting. Its move to sell non-core assets will help improve sentiment.

However, the stock is unlikely to rerate significantly as 4Q’s earnings are likely to remain weak and could come in below consensus. On top of this, the stock may lose its position in the FBM KLCI due to its lower market capitalisation. We cut our FY14-16 earnings by 4-7% to reflect the losses from the floods and Asian Plantations, and lower our SOP-based target price by 20%.

Market priced in concerns

FGV’s share prices has fallen 42% since the company announced its acquisition of Asian Plantations Ltd for RM628m and reported its first quarterly loss since listing in 3Q14. This has led some investors to pare down their stakes. The collapse in its share price has knocked off RM6bn market capitalisation from the stock. We believe the drop has sufficiently priced in the concerns as the market is only valuing its leased estates from the government at RM8,304 per ha, which is below replacement cost.

Focus for 2015

The group plans to focus on disposing its non-core assets in 1H15 and has set up several initiatives to reduce costs and improve the selling price achieved

for its palm products. The group will consider selling its Canadian downstream assets, which have been posting losses in 9M14, if a good offer comes along. We view this positively as it will help improve earnings and balance sheet strength.

Future M&A may require

external funding

We gather that the group is still keen on expanding its business via M&A but will be more selective now given that it has utilised 90% of its RM4.5bn IPO proceeds. Any future significant M&A may require funding through equity raising and bank borrowings. We estimate the net gearing of the group at 0.1x post its acquisition of Asian Plantations.

Cutting earnings and TP

We have revised down our FY14-16 earnings estimates by 4-7% to reflect the production losses from the floods in Dec and some losses from Asian Plantations. Based on this, we project the group report a net profit of RM12m in 4Q. Our target price which is based on a 20% discount to SOP has been cut to RM2.33 as we lower its asset valuations in line with the weaker earnings prospects.

Felda Global Ventures

COMPANY NOTE

FGV MK / FGVH.KL Current RM2.20

Market Cap Avg Daily Turnover Free Float Target RM2.33

US$2,229m

US$2.50m

53.6%

Prev. Target RM2.93

RM8,026m RM8.67m 3,648 m shares

Up/Downside 5.9%

Conviction| |

Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS

Notes from the Field

———————————————————————————————————————— Ivy NG Lee Fang, CFA

T (60) 3 2261 9073 E [email protected]

Company Visit Expert Opinion Channel Check Customer Views

————————————————————————————————————————

Show Style "View Doc Map"

Contents

BACKGROUND ... 5 OUTLOOK ... 6 VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION ... 9

44.0 54.0 64.0 74.0 84.0 94.0 104.0 114.0 1.80 2.30 2.80 3.30 3.80 4.30 4.80 5.30

Price Close Relative to FBMKLCI (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg

10 20

30

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14

V

ol

m

EFAPChartPriceVolRelDaily|

Financial Summary

Dec-12A Dec-13A Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F

Revenue (RMm) 12,886 12,568 15,905 16,485 17,371

Operating EBITDA (RMm) 975 703 946 1,129 1,380

Net Profit (RMm) 806.0 982.4 297.7 434.1 595.6

Core EPS (RM) 0.22 0.03 0.09 0.11 0.16

Core EPS Growth (57%) (85%) 192% 21% 43%

FD Core P/E (x) 11.77 68.24 23.33 19.32 13.48 DPS (RM) 0.14 0.16 0.08 0.10 0.12 Dividend Yield 6.36% 7.27% 3.64% 4.55% 5.45% EV/EBITDA (x) 3.16 13.63 11.56 9.98 8.34 P/FCFE (x) 7.13 3.31 66.57 6.25 5.48 Net Gearing (33.6%) (5.0%) 6.7% 6.8% 6.1% P/BV (x) 1.32 1.22 1.22 1.21 1.18 ROE 11.6% 1.9% 5.2% 6.3% 8.9%

% Change In Core EPS Estimates (3.84%) (7.31%) (2.87%)

CIMB/consensus EPS (x) 0.69 0.77 0.97

2.20

2.33

2.10 4.70

Target

52-week share price range

Current

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PEER COMPARISON

Research Coverage

Bloomberg Code Market Recommendation Mkt Cap US$m Price Target Price Upside

Felda Global Ventures FGV MK MY HOLD 2,229 2.20 2.33 5.9%

Hap Seng Plantations HAPL MK MY HOLD 569 2.56 2.46 -3.9%

IOI Corporation IOI MK MY REDUCE 8,375 4.74 4.32 -8.9%

Kuala Lumpur Kepong KLK MK MY HOLD 6,773 22.90 22.10 -3.5%

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Rolling P/BV (x)

Felda Global Ventures Hap Seng Plantations

IOI Corporation Kuala Lumpur Kepong

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

12-month Forward Rolling FD P/E (x)

Felda Global Ventures Hap Seng Plantations

IOI Corporation Kuala Lumpur Kepong

0.0% 3.8% 7.5% 11.3% 15.0% 18.8% 22.5% 26.3% 30.0% 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Peer Aggregate: P/BV vs ROE

Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) ROE (See Footnote) (rhs)

-60% -33% -7% 20% 47% 73% 100% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Peer Aggregate: 12-mth Fwd FD P/E vs FD EPS Growth

12-mth Fwd FD P/E (x) (See Footnote) (lhs) FD EPS Growth (See Footnote) (rhs)

Valuation

FD P/E (x) (See Footnote) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

Felda Global Ventures 68.24 23.33 19.32 1.22 1.22 1.21 13.63 11.56 9.98

Hap Seng Plantations 21.00 15.67 14.61 1.06 1.04 1.01 11.47 8.91 8.29 IOI Corporation 19.07 22.28 23.55 3.11 4.71 4.20 14.03 15.63 16.61 Kuala Lumpur Kepong 26.71 23.96 21.05 3.22 3.11 2.96 16.32 14.94 12.95

Growth and Returns

FD EPS Growth (See Footnote) ROE (See Footnote) Dividend Yield

Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

Felda Global Ventures -82.8% 192.5% 20.8% 1.9% 5.2% 6.3% 7.27% 3.64% 4.55%

Hap Seng Plantations -30.5% 34.0% 7.2% 5.1% 6.7% 7.0% 3.91% 3.83% 4.11%

IOI Corporation -11.2% -14.4% -5.4% 13.9% 16.8% 18.8% 2.87% 2.24% 2.12%

Kuala Lumpur Kepong -11.1% 11.5% 13.8% 12.4% 13.2% 14.4% 2.24% 2.60% 3.18%

SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS Calculations are performed using EFA™ Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends. NPAT/EPS values for calculations and valuations are based on recurring and normalised values for GAAP and IFRS accounting standard companies respectively.

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Earnings projected to fall in 2014 due to downstream losses and lower production

We are projecting lower dividend payment for FY14 in line with weaker profit.

Share price info

Share px perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M Relative -3.6 -29.8 -49.5 Absolute -0.5 -30.2 -49.8

Major shareholders % held

Federal Land Development Authority 20.0 Felda Asset Holdings 18.7

Lembaga Tabung Haji 7.8 0.0%

2.3% 4.7% 7.0% 9.3% 11.7% 14.0% 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

P/BV vs ROE

Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) ROE (See Footnote) (rhs)

-100% -56% -13% 31% 75% 119% 163% 206% 250% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

12-mth Fwd FD Core P/E vs FD Core EPS Growth

12-mth Fwd Rolling FD Core P/E (x) (lhs) FD Core EPS Growth (rhs)

Profit & Loss

(RMm) Dec-12A Dec-13A Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F

Total Net Revenues 12,886 12,568 15,905 16,485 17,371

Gross Profit 1,567 878 1,778 1,871 2,050

Operating EBITDA 975 703 946 1,129 1,380

Depreciation And Amortisation (109) (119) (131) (144) (158)

Operating EBIT 866 584 815 985 1,221

Financial Income/(Expense) (4) 61 (54) (92) (92)

Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. 140 (2) 30 40 50

Non-Operating Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0

Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) 1,002 643 791 933 1,179

Exceptional Items 124 865 (46) 19 0

Pre-tax Profit 1,126 1,508 745 952 1,179

Taxation (221) (399) (214) (273) (339)

Exceptional Income - post-tax 0 0 0 0 0

Profit After Tax 905 1,108 530 678 840

Minority Interests (99) (126) (233) (244) (245)

Preferred Dividends 0 0 0 0 0

FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax

Other Adjustments - post-tax 0 0 0 0 0

Net Profit 806 982 298 434 596

Recurring Net Profit 682 118 344 415 596

Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit 682 118 344 415 596

Cash Flow

(RMm) Dec-12A Dec-13A Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F

EBITDA 975 703 946 1,129 1,380

Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. (140) 2 (30) (40) (50)

Change In Working Capital (487) 60 (463) (80) (123)

(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions 0 0 0 0 0

Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense 0 0 0 0 0

Other Operating Cashflow 612 226 586 632 680

Net Interest (Paid)/Received (4) 48 (54) (92) (92)

Tax Paid (240) (294) (214) (273) (339)

Cashflow From Operations 715 745 771 1,275 1,456

Capex (287) (328) (417) (417) (417)

Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries 0 551 0 0 0

Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments (39) (1,503) 0 0 0

Other Investing Cashflow 161 77 (583) 77 77

Cash Flow From Investing (166) (1,203) (1,000) (340) (340)

Debt Raised/(repaid) 576 2,882 350 350 350

Proceeds From Issue Of Shares 4,326 0 0 0 0

Shares Repurchased 0 0 0 0

Dividends Paid (201) (529) (292) (365) (438)

Preferred Dividends

Other Financing Cashflow (1,031) (2,559) (770) (827) (859)

Cash Flow From Financing 3,670 (206) (712) (842) (947)

Total Cash Generated 4,220 (664) (941) 93 168

Free Cashflow To Equity 1,125 2,424 121 1,285 1,466

Free Cashflow To Firm 661 (362) (44) 1,158 1,339

BY THE NUMBERS

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Lower cash balances following several acquisitions

Lower EBITDA margin due to downstream losses and weaker plantation margins

FFB output decline 3% despite the addition of Pontian United Plantation estates to its stable in FY14

Balance Sheet

(RMm) Dec-12A Dec-13A Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F

Total Cash And Equivalents 5,694 5,205 4,264 4,357 4,525

Total Debtors 743 1,352 1,710 1,773 1,868

Inventories 598 1,740 2,202 2,282 2,405

Total Other Current Assets 960 752 752 752 752

Total Current Assets 7,994 9,049 8,929 9,164 9,550

Fixed Assets 1,683 5,683 5,902 6,109 6,301

Total Investments 2,770 1,344 1,297 1,261 1,234

Intangible Assets 707 876 876 876 876

Total Other Non-Current Assets 3,345 3,770 4,497 4,564 4,632

Total Non-current Assets 8,505 11,673 12,572 12,810 13,043

Short-term Debt 599 1,638 1,988 2,338 2,688

Current Portion of Long-Term Debt 1,138 639 639 639 639

Total Creditors 401 1,387 1,745 1,807 1,902

Other Current Liabilities 497 386 447 423 423

Total Current Liabilities 2,635 4,049 4,819 5,206 5,651

Total Long-term Debt 1,621 2,486 2,257 2,028 1,799

Hybrid Debt - Debt Component

Total Other Non-Current Liabilities 5,192 4,621 4,621 4,621 4,621

Total Non-current Liabilities 6,813 7,107 6,878 6,649 6,420

Total Provisions 91 620 620 620 620 Total Liabilities 9,539 11,776 12,317 12,475 12,691 Shareholders' Equity 6,102 6,571 6,577 6,647 6,806 Minority Interests 858 2,375 2,607 2,851 3,096 Total Equity 6,960 8,946 9,184 9,499 9,902 Key Drivers

Dec-12A Dec-13A Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F

Planted Estates (ha) 333,368 333,368 347,529 349,529 351,529 Mature Estates (ha) 273,362 274,362 280,869 282,869 284,869 FFB Yield (tonnes/ha) 19.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.0

FFB Output Growth (%) -4.8% 2.9% -3.0% 1.9% 1.6%

CPO Price (US$/tonne) 920 741 728 693 722

BY THE NUMBERS

Key Ratios

Dec-12A Dec-13A Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F

Revenue Growth 72.9% (2.5%) 26.6% 3.6% 5.4%

Operating EBITDA Growth (47.1%) (27.9%) 34.5% 19.3% 22.2%

Operating EBITDA Margin 7.56% 5.60% 5.95% 6.85% 7.94%

Net Cash Per Share (RM) 0.64 0.12 (0.17) (0.18) (0.16)

BVPS (RM) 1.67 1.80 1.80 1.82 1.87

Gross Interest Cover 7.78 5.65 4.40 4.41 5.47

Effective Tax Rate 19.6% 26.5% 28.8% 28.7% 28.7%

Net Dividend Payout Ratio 75% 496% 85% 88% 74%

Accounts Receivables Days 16.28 30.41 35.13 38.56 38.35

Inventory Days 16.63 36.50 50.93 56.01 55.99

Accounts Payables Days 9.65 26.51 39.49 43.42 43.41

ROIC (%) 17.4% 8.2% 6.6% 7.2% 8.6%

ROCE (%) 9.78% 6.05% 6.52% 7.49% 8.79%

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Cheap for a reason

BACKGROUND

Share price slump due to weak results

Felda Global Ventures’ share price has fallen 51% in 2014. We believe the decline was due to concerns over its poor 3Q earnings and potential earnings dilution from Asian Plantations Ltd. The stock is also down 52% from its IPO price of RM4.55 per shares in mid-2012.

Figure 1: Share price performance of FGV since listing

Title: Source:

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14

Volume (RHS) Share price (LHS)

(Share price - RM) (m vol)

FGV announced the acquisition of APL (31 Aug 2014)

FGV announced its first quarterly loss since listing (27 Nov2014)

SOURCES: CIMB, BLOOMBERG

We recently visited the company and came out relatively neutral from the meetings. We are positive on its plan to dispose non-core assets, though the value may not be significant relative to the group’s total assets.

We also gather that its Canadian downstream business is expected to recover some of the unrealised losses from the commodity contracts in 3Q14 of RM52m and the group is embarking on several initiatives to reduce its costs of productions at its estates.

However, these are offset by concerns that its 4Q results may come in below market expectations, the unexciting outlook for CPO price, potential fund raising should it embarked on M&A exercises, and the slump in its share price that may cause the group to be remove from the FBM KLCI index.

We cut our FY14 earnings to reflect lower-than-expected FFB output and revise down our SOP to reflect weaker earnings from its assets.

Our analysis suggests that the correction in its share price has more than captured these concerns. The market is currently valuing its planted estates (which is leased from the government) at RM8,304 per ha (below replacement cost for the estates which we estimate should be worth around RM15k-20k per ha).

As such, we upgrade the stock to a Hold from Reduce. We see limited downside from here as the stock is supported by the attractive market-implied valuation for its leased estates (after stripping out valuation for its stake in MSM and FHB). The stock is not an Add as it lacks significant catalysts.

‘‘

The acquisition of Asian

Plantations Ltd complements the group’s long-term expansion strategy. We are relentless in our pursuit to be part of the world’s top 10

agribusiness players and a leader in the sectors of palm oil, rubber and sugar by 2020.”

Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah, FGV Group President and Chief Executive Officer

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OUTLOOK

Poor harvest in 4Q14

Felda Global Venture’s (FGV) 4Q14 FFB output fell 13% yoy and 10% qoq due to flooding in the Malay Peninsula’s East Coast which impacted 6.3% of its total planted oil palm estates. The weaker FFB yields were partly due to the drought that impacted its Peninsular Malaysia estates in 1Q14. The combination of these two adverse weather conditions, combined with on-going replanting efforts of 15,000 ha per annum, led the group to report a 3% yoy decline in FFB output for 2014, which is slightly below our projections.

The decline in output growth would have been steeper, if not for the additional FFB output contribution from Pontian United Plantation (PUP) estates. To recap, the group completed the acquisition of PUP on 1 Oct 2013 for RM1.2bn. The acquisition added 5% of planted oil palm estates to the group.

Overall, we have lowered our FFB projections and cut our earnings for FY14 to reflect this. We are projecting a slower 2% growth for FY15 due to concerns over the lingering impact of the adverse weather on its estates, as well as the group’s ageing estates.

Figure 2: FGV’s FFB output trend Figure 3: FGV's quarterly FFB output and CPO price

Title: Source:

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

4,911 5,052 4,913 4,800 4,850 4,900 4,950 5,000 5,050 5,100 2012 2013 2014 ('000 tonnes) Title: Source:

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 1,350 1,400 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14F

FFB output (LHS) CPO price (RHS)

('000 tonnes) (RM per tonne)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Working on initiatives to reduce costs

FGV plans to reduce its CPO costs of production (ex-mills) at its estates, which it estimates at around RM1,370 per tonne for FY14, through several cost-saving initiatives implemented in the group. It added that fertiliser prices is likely to trend lower in line with the weaker crude oil price but this could be partially offset by the weak ringgit against the USD as most of the fertiliser materials are imported.

Labour costs are expected to remain relatively stable unless the government decides to raise the minimum wage of the country, which currently stands at RM900 per month for Peninsular Malaysia. The 6% GST implementation starting 1 April 2015 is not expected to impact the group’s cost of production as it is able to claim the tax on its inputs, based on the group’s initial assessment. However, this may raise the group’s working capacity cycle slightly as it may take time for the group to recoup its taxes.

The falling diesel prices could potentially lower its replanting costs of around RM250m per annum if the group is successful in negotiating down the costs with its contractors. The above costs of production for its estates exclude replanting costs, lease payments to the government, as well as HQ costs. Our own estimates show the group’s estates costs of production to be closer to RM2,000 per tonne, if we add in these last three items.

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Figure 4: Historical FGV’s lease payments (cash flows) to FELDA

Figure 5: Historical replanting costs of FGV

Title: Source:

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

388.1 325.9 257.5 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2012 2013 9M14 (RM m) Title: Source:

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

199.6 223.5 255.8 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 (RM m)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Replanting efforts to slowly bear fruit

The group is not wavering from its initiatives to replant around 15,000 ha of estates per annum to improve its age profile over time. Some of its early replanting plan in 2011 of 16k per ha should slowly come into maturity in the coming years and help to improve the FFB yield performance for its estates. The replanting costs of around RM250m per annum are expense off as they are incurred in the group’s income statement.

Figure 6: FGV’s oil palm replanting programme

Title: Source:

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

14,855 13,473 8,649 13,997 16,205 16,478 14,464 14,251 15,260 19,700 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F (ha)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

New trading arm to secure better pricing for its CPO

FGV is in the midst of setting up a new trading division for the group with the main purpose of securing better pricing and market access for its palm products. The new trading division will commence on 1 Feb 2015 and the group’s output from its mills and refineries will be channeled to this trading arm to secure the best pricing for its palm products with MPOB’s average price as the key benchmark. Following this, the group’s mill and refinery division will focus on achieving better efficiency at its plants as they will receive a fixed tolling fees for the products processed. The group’s current CPO price view for 2015 is RM2,450 per tonne, which is broadly in line with ours of RM2,460 per tonne.

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Asian Plantations Ltd may dampen earnings

The group recently completed the acquisition of Asian Plantations Ltd (APL) for RM660m, which we view to be pricey (after taking into consideration its young age profile) compared to other estates transactions in Sarawak. FGV indicated that it paid EV/ha of RM62k for the planted estates of 16,300 ha under this deal which we view to be pricier than other estates transaction in Sarawak of RM40k-50k per ha. The group is expected to start incorporating the contribution from APL in 4Q14. In FY13 and 1H14, APL posted a loss of US$10.4m and US$10.6m, respectively. Our concern is that the group’s losses will widen as more new mature areas come on stream. We have incorporated APL into our FY15-16 earnings estimates.

Figure 7: Historical net profit of Asian Plantations Ltd (APL)

Title: Source:

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

(1.2) (3.6) (11.6) (6.9) (10.4) (10.6) (14.0) (12.0) (10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) -2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H14 (US$ m)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Selling non-core assets

FGV indicated that it will focus on divesting some of its non-core businesses, which include the travel, IT and engineering businesses in 1H15. This will allow the group to receive some proceeds to strengthen its balance sheet but they are unlikely to boost the earnings of the group significantly. It was reported in the media that these assets could potentially be worth RM320m. We view this positively as it will allow the group to better focus on its existing core businesses.

M&A constraints as it has utilize most of IPO proceeds

As at 30 Sep 2014, the group has spent 90% or RM4bn of its RM4.5bn IPO proceeds raised in 2012. As a result, the group would need to borrow or raise equity to fund any significant future acquisitions. We believe investors will be monitoring closely on whether the group has been able to add value to its shareholders through its past acquisitions in its upcoming results.

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Figure 8: Utilisation of IPO proceeds Figure 9: Balance sheet position

Item RM m

IPO expenses 144

Additional IPO expenses 16

Repayment of loan 260

TRT Etgo capex 59

Working capital & general corporate expenses 129

FGV R&D 10

TRT Etgo additional capex 69

Acquisition of Mission Biotech 21

Acquisition of PT Temila Agro & PT Landak Bhakti 13

Acquisition of Pontian United Plantations - batch 1 607

Acquisition of Pontian United Plantations - batch 2 600

Capital injection into FGV Biotechnologies 50

Payment for remaining 50% of Mission Biotech acquisition 18

Acquisition of Felda Holdings Bhd 1,133 Payment for Indonesian plantation companies 23

Capital injection into FGV Capital & FGV Investment 22

Capital injection into Trurich Resources 80

Acquisition of Asian Plantations Ltd 660

Others 104 Total utilisation 4,018 Balance 441 Total proceeds 4,459 Title: Source:

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

1,934 (557) (566) (1,000) (500) 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

End-2012 End-2013 End-Sept 2014

(RM m)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION

Cutting FY14-16 earnings by 3-7%

We downgrade our FY14-16 earnings forecasts by 3-7% to reflect lower FFB output assumptions in view of the floods and to incorporate the losses from Asian Plantations. Following the earnings revision, we now expect FY14’s reported net profit to fall in FY14 before rising in FY15. We project better earnings in FY15 due to a higher CPO price assumption and lower losses from its downstream division. For FY16, the stronger earnings are due mainly to higher CPO prices and production. Based on our revised FY14 earnings forecast, we project FGV to post a net profit of RM12m in 4Q14. The group’s earnings are highly sensitive to changes in CPO prices. We estimate that every RM100 per tonne change in CPO price will impact its pretax profit by RM95m.

Balance sheet strength

FGV’s total borrowings as at 30 Sept 2014 were RM4.4bn. Of this, 59% or RM2.6bn represent loans due to a significant shareholder. The remainder comprises bankers’ acceptances and export credit refinancing which we believe are trade-related loans. Most of the group’s borrowings or 93% are denominated in ringgit. The group also held cash and cash equivalents of RM3.8bn as at 30 Sept 2014. As such, the group was in a net debt position of RM0.6bn as at end of 3Q14 against its total shareholders’ equity of RM6.3bn, implying a net gearing position of 9.5%.

Upgrade to Hold from Reduce

We raise our rating for the stock to Hold from Reduce as we believe the sharp decline in its share price has sufficiently priced in investors’ concerns over the group’s acquisition of Asian Plantations and its weak 3Q results. Based on our estimates, the market is only valuing the group’s leased estates at RM8,304 per ha which is below its replacement cost. Despite the seemingly attractive valuation, the stock is not an Add due to our concerns over: 1) full-year net profit that may be weak and come in below consensus numbers of RM436m net profit for FY14, 2) the unexciting CPO price prospects, and 3) the potential removal of the stock from the FBM KLCI index as its market capitalisation is

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now only RM8bn, which is RM4.3bn below the 29th largest market cap stock in

the index which is KLCCP Stapled Group (RM12.3bn).

Dividend payout policy and our estimates

The group has had a dividend payout policy of 50% since its listing. Over the past two years, the group has paid out 59-63% of its reported net earnings as dividends. We are projecting a dividend payout of 98% for FY14, suggesting a final dividend of 2 sen per share and full-year dividend of 8 sen. For FY15-16, we expect the group to pay out 75-85% of its earnings, translating into dividend yields of 4-5%.

Figure 10: SOP valuations

Segments Stake Method RMm

Plantation

Land-leased estates in Malaysia 100% Forward P/E of 12.6x 4,181 Pontian United Plantations 100% 0.9x Latest transacted price 1,080 Asian Plantations 100% 0.8x of purchase consideration 502 PT Citra Niaga 95% EV/ha of US$0.5k for unplanted 23.9 Downstream business

TRT US (Oleo plant) 100% 1x of 31 Dec 2011 net book value 173 TRT-ETGO Inc (canola and soybean crushing) 100% 1x of 31 Dec 2011 net book value 389 Sugar business

MSM Malaysia 51% Based on market value 1,757

Subsidiaries

Felda Holdings Berhad 100% 0.9x of purchase consideration 3,882 Joint venture entities

Felda IFFCO 50% Historical purchase price in 2009 145 Trurich Resources 50% EV/ha of US$8k planted and US$1k unplanted 329

Cash 3,845

Total debts (5,685)

Total Sum-of-Parts value 10,623

Less: 20% discount (2,125)

Target market cap for FGV 8,498

Target price for FGV (RM per share) 2.33

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AAV, ADVANC, AMATA, ANAN, AOT, AP, ASP, BANPU, BAY, BBL, BCH, BCP, BEC, BECL, BGH, BH, BIGC, BJC, BJCHI, BLA, BLAND, BMCL, BTS, CENTEL, CK, CPALL, CPF, CPN, DCC, DELTA, DEMCO, DTAC, EARTH, EGCO, ERW, ESSO, GFPT, GLOBAL, GLOW, GUNKUL, HEMRAJ, HMPRO, INTUCH, IRPC, ITD, IVL, JAS, KBANK, KCE, KKP, KTB, KTC, LH, LOXLEY, LPN, M, MAJOR, MC, MCOT, MEGA, MINT, NOK, NYT, PS, PSL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, QH, RATCH, ROBINS, RS, SAMART, SCB, SCC, SCCC, SIRI, SPALI, SPCG, SRICHA, STA, STEC, STPI, SVI, TASCO, TCAP, TFD, THAI, THCOM, THRE, THREL, TICON, TISCO, TMB, TOP, TPIPL, TTA, TTCL, TTW, TUF, UMI, UV, VGI, TRUE, WHA.

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Description: Excellent Very Good Good N/A

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Rating Distribution (%) Investment Banking clients (%)

Add 58.4% 6.0%

Hold 29.4% 4.3%

Reduce 12.2% 1.0%

Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 31 December 2014 1586 companies under coverage for quarter ended on 31 December 2014

Spitzer Chart for stock being researched ( 2 year data )

Felda Global Ventures (FGV MK)

1.80 2.30 2.80 3.30 3.80 4.30 4.80 5.30

Jan-13 May-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Oct-14

Price Close 4 .7 0 4 .5 3 4 .3 2 4 .5 0 4 .7 3 4 .7 3 4 .7 2 3 .9 6 3 .6 9 3.4 7 3 .2 8 2 .9 3

Recommendations & Target Price

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Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (Thai IOD) in 2014.

AAV – Very Good, ADVANC – Very Good, AEONTS – not available, AMATA - Good, ANAN – Very Good, AOT – Very Good, AP - Good, ASK – Very Good,

ASP – Very Good, BANPU – Very Good , BAY – Very Good , BBL – Very Good, BCH – not available, BCP - Excellent, BEAUTY – Good, BEC - Good, BECL

Very Good, BGH - not available, BH - Good, BIGC - Very Good, BJC – Good, BLA – Very Good, BMCL - Very Good, BTS - Excellent, CCET – Good,

CENTEL – Very Good, CHG – not available, CK – Very Good, CPALL – not available, CPF – Very Good, CPN - Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DEMCO – Good,

DTAC – Very Good, EA - Good, ECL – not available, EGCO - Excellent, GFPT - Very Good, GLOBAL - Good, GLOW - Good, GRAMMY - Excellent, HANA -

Excellent, HEMRAJ – Very Good, HMPRO - Very Good, ICHI - not available, INTUCH - Excellent, ITD – Good, IVL - Excellent, JAS – not available, JUBILE

not available, KAMART – not available, KBANK - Excellent, KCE - Very Good, KGI – Good, KKP – Excellent, KTB - Excellent, KTC – Good, LH - Very Good,

LPN – Very Good, M - not available, MAJOR - Good, MAKRO – Good, MBKET – Good, MC – Very Good, MCOT – Very Good, MEGA – Good, MINT -

Excellent, OFM – Very Good, OISHI – Good, PS – Very Good, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTEP - Excellent, PTTGC - Excellent, QH – Very Good,

RATCH – Very Good, ROBINS – Very Good, RS – Very Good, SAMART - Excellent, SAPPE - not available, SAT – Excellent, SAWAD – not available, SC

Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCBLIF – Good, SCC – Very Good, SCCC - Good, SIM - Excellent, SIRI - Good, SPALI - Excellent, STA – Very Good, STEC - Good,

SVI – Very Good, TASCO – Good, TCAP – Very Good, THAI – Very Good, THANI – Very Good, THCOM – Very Good, THRE – not available, THREL – Good,

TICON – Good, TISCO - Excellent, TK – Very Good, TMB - Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE – Very Good, TTW – Very Good, TUF - Good, VGI – Very Good,

WORK – not available.

CIMB Recommendation Framework

Stock Ratings Definition:

Add The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.

Hold The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months.

Reduce The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months.

The total expected return of a stock is defined as the sum of the: (i) percentage difference between the target price and the current price and (ii) the forward net dividend yields of the stock. Stock price targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.

Sector Ratings Definition:

Overweight An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a positive absolute recommendation.

Neutral A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral absolute recommendation.

Underweight An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a negative absolute recommendation.

Country Ratings Definition:

Overweight An Overweight rating means investors should be positioned with an above-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.

Neutral A Neutral rating means investors should be positioned with a neutral weight in this country relative to benchmark.

Underweight An Underweight rating means investors should be positioned with a below-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.

*Prior to December 2013 CIMB recommendation framework for stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange were based on a stock’s total return relative to the relevant benchmarks total return. Outperform: expected to exceed by 5% or more over the next 12 months. Neutral: expected to be within +/-5% over the next 12 months. Underperform: expected to be below by 5% or more over the next 12 months. Trading Buy: expected to exceed by 3% or more over the next 3 months. Trading Sell: expected to be below by 3% or more over the next 3 months. For stocks listed on Korea Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Outperform: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. Neutral: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months. Underperform: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. Trading Buy: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months. Trading Sell: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months.

Figure

Figure 1: Share price performance of FGV since listing
Figure 2: FGV’s FFB output trend    Figure 3: FGV's quarterly FFB output and CPO price
Figure 4: Historical FGV’s lease payments (cash flows) to  FELDA
Figure 7: Historical net profit of Asian Plantations Ltd (APL)
+2

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