Present trends and climate change projections for the Mediterranean region

Present trends and climate change projections

for the Mediterranean region

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Prof. Piero Lionello,

piero.lionello@unile.it

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Plan of the talk:

An introduction to the climate of the Mediterranean region.

Present trends of precipitation and temperature

Climate projections for the Mediterranean region

Water scarcity

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

1

₇

0

₀

k

_m

3700km

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

10 out of 30 Köppen climate

types are present around

the Mediterranean Sea

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Luterbacher J. et al. (2005),

Mediterranean climate variability over the last

centuries: a review

In P.Lionello, P.Malanotte-Rizzoli, R.Boscolo (eds)

Mediterranean Climate Variability

. Amsterdam: Elsevier (NETHERLANDS).

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Graphics based on CRU (Climatic Research Unit

)

climatology,

interpolated from station data to 0.5 degree lat/lon grid ( New, M.,

M. Hulme and P. Jones, 1999a and b)

XXIX MIT Global Change Forum

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

24-26 June 2009

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

DJF

SON

JJA

MAM

XXIX MIT Global Change Forum

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

24-26 June 2009

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Pre_season_19 75_2000

Precipitation 1975 -2000

DJF

SON

JJA

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

XXIX MIT Global Change Forum

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

24-26 June 2009

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

DJF

SON

JJA

MAM

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Precipitation trends 1975 - 2000

DJF

SON

JJA

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

mm/50years

Acknowledgement: Xoplaki, 2002; Xoplaki et al., 2004

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

http://eca.knmi.nl/index.php

Participants and data

Today, ECA&D has

53 participants

from

41 countries

and the ECA

dataset contains 7033 series of observations at

2317 meteorological

stations

throughout Europe and the Mediterranean (see Daily data >

Data dictionary

for an overview of all available series). Participation to

ECA&D is open to anyone maintaining daily station data. If you want to

join please contact us.

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

Risoluzione 5

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Though there is a possibly widespread over-perception

of precipitation trends, reduction of (winter)

precipitation is observed over large areas of the

Mediterranean region. The signal for temperature is

much clearer than for precipitation: there is positive

trend with an acceleration during the last part of the

20th century involving the whole Mediterranean region.

Clear positive trend of heat waves, less clear trend for a

“more extreme” precipitation regime …

In general, it is important to increase the number of

long time series

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

MODEL 20C B1 A1B A2

CCMA-3-T47 CNRM-CM3 CSIRO-MK3 GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2-0 INMCM3 MIROC3-2H IPSL-CM4 GISS-E-R UKMO-HADCM3 NCAR-PCM1 NCAR-CCSM3 MRI-CGCM2 MPI-ECHAM5 MIUB-ECHO-G MIROC3-2M GFDL-CM2-1

5 4 4 2

1 1 1 1

2 1 1 1

3 1 1 1

3 0 1 1

2 2 2 0

1 1 2 1

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 0

3 3 3 3

5 3 3 3

3 3 2 3

5 5 5 5

8 8 6 4

4 2 3 4

1 1 1 1 Grid interval ~2.7 deg ~2.8 deg ~2.3 deg ~2.3 deg ~3.2 deg ~2.2 deg ~2.2 deg ~3.5 deg ~4.5 deg ~4.5 deg ~3.0 deg ~1.2 deg ~2.8 deg ~2.8 deg ~2.8 deg ~1.4 deg ~3.0 deg

List of models, grid interval

(atmosphere) and experiments

used in this work. 20C indicates

experiments for the 20c

century, B1, A1B and A2,

experiments for the 21st

century under forcing deriving

from the corresponding IPCC

emission scenarios. The grid

interval is approximate, as it

may vary across latitudes and

may be different in the

longitude and latitude

directions. More detailed

information on models and

experiments is available the

PCMDI web site

http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov for.

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

DJF MAM JJA SON

T e m p e ra tu re c h a n g e ( C ) Observed MGME -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 P re c ip it a ti o n c h a n g e ( % ) Observed MGME

(1981-2000) minus (1961-1980)

Observed (CRU data) and MGME

ensemble average change in

precipitation (upper panel) and

surface air temperature (lower

panel) for the four seasons over

the full Mediterranean region (land

only) 1981-2000 minus 1961-1980.

Units are % of 1961-1980 value for

precipitation and degrees C for

temperature.

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Temperature change (C, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990),

MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario

DJF

DJF

SON

SON

MAM

MAM

JJA

JJA

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Precipitation change (%, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990),

MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario

DJF

DJF

MAM

MAM

SON

SON

JJA

JJA

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 P re c ip it a ti o n C h a n g e ( % ) 2001-2020 2021-2040 2041-2060 2061-2080 2081-2100

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

T

e

m

p

e

ra

tu

re

c

h

a

n

g

e

(

C

)

2001-2020

2021-2040

2041-2060

2061-2080

2081-2100

Evolution in time of

precipitation (upper

panel) and temperature

(lower panel)

MGME ensemble average,

A1B scenario

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

JJA temperature anomalies

(relative to 1961-1990)

Black lines: observations,

Coloured lines: models

Human contribution to the

European heatwave of 2003

Risoluzione 5

5 degs

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

Risoluzione 4

4 degs

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

Risoluzione 3

3 degs

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

Risoluzione 2

2 degs

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

Risoluzione 1

1 degs

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

Risoluzionem 0.5

0.5 degs

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

Risoluzione 0.2

0.2 degs

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

Risoluzione 0.1

0.1 degs

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

DJF

DJF

JJA

JJA

DJF

DJF

JJA

JJA

Precipitation annual cycle of monthly means averaged over the Northern

Adriatic region. Different lines correspond to CRU data in red color for period

1961-1990, to CTR ensemble mean, in green, computed for period 1961-1990

over the PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and SMHI data, to SCN-A2 ensemble

mean, in blue, computed for period 2071-2100 over the PRUDENCE data, and

to SCNA1B and scn-A1B, in violet for period 2071-2100 and light blues for

period 2021-2050, respectively, computed over ENSEMBLES and SMHI data.

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

From

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Large warming (very likely) and reduced precipitation

(likely , with rather large spatial variability) are the

projected consequence of anthropogenic climate

change in large parts of the Mediterranean (including

Middle east)

Models are not flawless. Regionalization is important

for the Mediterranean area.

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Milly et al 2005

A1B scenario, mid 21st century relative to

1900-1970 12 GCMs, hatched > 90%

agreement

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

Mediterranean ecosystems have been strongly modified

14.000 years of sheap breeding

11.000 years of wheat cultivation

8.000 yrs of olive/fruit trees

Palestine 200 A.D. > 5 million people

Le Houérou 1981

MEA 2005

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

1 2 3 4 5 6

Cyprus Gaza Strip Israel Lebanon Syria

1955

1970

1985

2000

2015

2030

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

1 2 3 4 5 6

Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco Tunisia

1955

1970

1985

2000

2015

2030

Population in the

Middle East and

Northern Africa

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

in collaboration with

Eni S.p.A.

Accademia dei Lincei • Rome, Italy

The Scientific, Economic and Policy Background for COP-15

The geographic Mediterranean region is climatically inhomogeneous and

characterized by a strong time variability

There is a clear warming signal, affecting also extreme indicators. Precipitation

trends are an issue (they appear not so robust as for temperature, there is a data

problem)

Climate projections in the Mediterranean region need high space resolution.

Capability of models to reproduce present climate patterns and trends are not

adequate, especially for precipitation

Models agree that the Mediterranean region is a hot spot for climate change:

Large warming and strong precipitation decrease are projected by most models

Water scarcity is a major issue that, if not properly managed, might become

dramatic in future

Societal factors are at least as important as (likely more than ) climate change

physical drivers for availability of future water resources