Who we are
1
Aluminium use in key markets
80+
Approx. 600 plants in 30 countries
(EU 28, EFTA and Turkey)
1 million + Direct and indirect jobs
€40 Billion annual turnover
[2018]Members
Our strategic priorities and mission
1. Secure European Aluminium’s position as smart, sustainable and strategic industry before and after European Elections
• Call to action with our I+ Manifesto and Vision 2050
• Outreach to top EU decision makers – EU Commission and EU Parliament
2. Strengthen European Aluminium’s advocacy firepower in critical files by building a new ring of allies at political and technical levels
• Consolidate and increase influence in DG Trade, Energy, Climate, Environment, Research, GROW and Competition
• Build up “MEP Champions” on our priorities, with a focus on Trade and Energy 3. Promote aluminium as an innovative, circular and first-in-class material
to positive societal change in Europe
• Further develop our long term story around Vision 2050 and SDGs
• Reinforce our digital presence : social media, videos, website
2
2
The Vision 2050 report was launched last April 2019
The aim of the report is to set out different scenarios on how the sector can contribute to the EU mid-century strategy and to outline the conditions necessary for the sector to realise its full potential for decarbonisation.
An extension of the report is ongoing with a focus on recycling :
➢ Phase I: Storyline and positioning (deadline: December 2019)
➢ Phase II: Deep dive into the market dynamics of recycled aluminium and mass flow analysis (long-term project: 2020-
2021)3 Our vision for low carbon aluminium by 2050
4
The Aluminium Agenda is there to influence the EU Commission’s priorities to be announced in the first 100 days
Our call to action focus on
4 policy areaswith our policy recommendations on:
➢ Trade
➢ Energy
➢ Circular Economy
➢ Innovation
This follows our I+ Manifesto campaign
4 The Aluminium Agenda : our call to action
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 5 European**
shipments in EU28+EFTA
Volumes (in kt)
Growth rate (in %)
Delta ∆ (in kt)
Transport 794 +4.5% +34
- Auto 469 +4.7% +22
- Trucks / trailers 203 +5.7% +11
Gen. engineering 282 -2.8% -8
Elec. engineering 126 +4.5% +5
B&C 1 234 +2.7% +32
Office equipemt 148 +7.2% +10
Stockists 478 +1.8% +9
Others 124 +6.0% +7
Total 3 186 +2.9% +90
Strong growth driven by most segments…
5 2018 Extrusion end uses: European picture
Imports from outside Europe** in EU28+EFTA:
• Volume: 288 kt
• Growth rate: +13.1%
• Delta (∆): +33 kt
Total shipments in EU28+EFTA:
• Volume: 3 474 kt
• Growth rate: +3.7%
• Delta (∆): +123 kt
**including Turkey, Bosnia, Serbia etc.
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 6
6 Extrusion & tube shipments in Europe*
Key points:
• Lower forecasts than expected for 2019 and 2020 as H1 2019
expectations didn’t materialise…
• Strong increase of imports especially from China: EU producers are
exporting less while imports are still growing…
• Most end uses segments are flat or negative…
*EU28+EFTA
2020 forecasts:
3 430 kt
Total Europe:+0.8%
2019 forecasts:
3 403 kt
Total Europe: -2.1%7 Extrusion & tube shipments European details
Scandinavia:
-2.0%
Central & Eastern countries: +1.0%
Central & Eastern countries: +1.1%
Scandinavia:
-0.2%
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 8
Volumes &
Growth rate Cars Trucks 2018
volumes
18.8
Mio 492 000
2018 -1.7% +2.3%
2019(f) -3.0% -3.2%
2020(f) -0.4% -3.0%
Industrial production B&C production
Cars and trucks
8 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
Europe
9 Extrusion & tube shipments in Germany
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 10
A flat outlook for 2019 and slightly better in 2020 after 2 strong years of growth…
Transport is still robust while other markets show sign of weaknesses…
11 Extrusion & tube shipments in France
Shipments
(in kt) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 97,9 100,7 99,7 100,9
Q2 100,4 103,1 101,6 102,9
Q3 73,4 75,1 75,5 76,4
Q4 76,7 78,5 78,9 79,8
Year 348,3 357,4 355,8 360,0
Growth (yoy)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 5,0% 2,9% -1,0% 1,2%
Q2 5,4% 2,7% -1,4% 1,2%
Q3 6,2% 2,4% 0,5% 1,2%
Q4 5,4% 2,4% 0,5% 1,2%
Year 5,4% 2,6% -0,5% 1,2%
Area Subtopic 2019 evolution
Cars 1% <X≤ 3%
Trucks & Trailers 1% <X≤ 3%
Rail Others
-1% ≤X≤ 1%
General -1% ≤X≤ 1%
Electrical -1% ≤X≤ 1%
-5% ≤ X< -3%
Transport/
Automotive
Engineering
Domestic & office equipment Stockists / traders Imports outside Europe*
Building & Construction
*ytd data until July 2019
• Still positive but low level of construction output in 2019 vs 2018 (0.8% vs 3.1%)
• Low level of B&C is driven by new construction which is negative while renovation is slightly better
• However, no more incentive for window renovation in 2019…
Volumes &
Growth rate Cars Trucks 2018
volumes
2.3
Mio 62 000
2018 +2.3% +15.5%
2019(f) -3.4% -7.0%
2020(f) -21.1% -2.3%
Industrial production B&C production
Cars and trucks
12 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
FRANCE
Source: EuroConstruct (June 2019) Source: Consensus (Sep 2019)
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 12
A negative domestic production outlook in H1 balanced by strong imports from outside
Europe…
A market with flat European shipments but driven by imports from outside Europe…
13 Extrusion & tube shipments in Italy
Shipments
(in kt) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 101,9 104,0 104,5 106,0
Q2 113,4 114,6 117,3 118,9
Q3 112,5 116,0 115,5 117,1
Q4 114,1 118,3 118,9 120,5
Year 441,9 452,9 456,2 462,6
Growth
(yoy) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 8,7% 2,1% 0,5% 1,4%
Q2 8,3% 1,1% 2,3% 1,4%
Q3 8,2% 3,1% -0,4% 1,4%
Q4 8,2% 3,6% 0,5% 1,4%
Year 8,3% 2,5% 0,7% 1,4%
Area Subtopic 2019 evolution
Cars -3% ≤ X< -1%
Trucks & Trailers -3% ≤ X< -1%
Rail Others
-1% ≤X≤ 1%
General -1% ≤X≤ 1%
Electrical -1% ≤X≤ 1%
X > 15%
Building & Construction
Stockists / traders Imports outside Europe Transport/
Automotive
Engineering
Domestic & office equipment
*ytd data until H1 2019 i.e. H1 2019 vs H1 2018
*
• Positive but slightly lower level of construction output in 2019 vs 2018 (1.9 % vs 2.2%)
• 2019 growth in non residential (3.3%) is higher than residential (1.3%)
• In both segment (residential and non), 2019 growth is supported by new construction (3.8% and 3.3%)
Volumes &
Growth rate Cars Trucks 2018
volumes
1.0
Mio 24 000
2018 -6.5% -8.1%
2019(f) -9.6% -4.8%
2020(f) +7.5% +6.3%
Industrial production B&C production
Cars and trucks
14 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
Italy
Source: EuroConstruct (June 2019) Source: Consensus (Sep 2019)
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 14
A strong drop is expected for 2019 and a slightly positive outlook later on…
A negative market for most segment especially for imports…
15 Extrusion & tube shipments in United Kingdom
Shipments (in kt)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 51,6 53,3 50,6 51,1
Q2 55,6 57,4 51,1 51,6
Q3 41,9 42,2 34,8 35,6
Q4 41,2 42,6 35,1 36,0
Year 190,3 195,4 171,6 174,4
Growth (yoy)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 5,2% 3,3% -5,0% 1,0%
Q2 5,2% 3,2% -11,0% 1,0%
Q3 4,9% 0,5% -17,5% 2,5%
Q4 4,6% 3,4% -17,5% 2,5%
Year 5,0% 2,7% -12,2% 1,6%
Area Subtopic 2019 evolution Cars X < -5%
Trucks & Trailers 1% <X≤ 3%
Rail Others
-5% ≤ X< -3%
General Electrical
X < -9%
Transport/
Automotive
Engineering
Domestic & office equipment Stockists / traders Imports outside Europe*
Building & Construction
*ytd data until H1 2019 i.e. H1 2019 vs H1 2018
Volumes &
Growth rate Cars Trucks 2018
volumes
1.7
Mio 16 000
2018 -8.9% +10.0%
2019(f) -12.1% +6.9%
2020(f) +4.0% +1.0%
Industrial production B&C production
Cars and trucks
16 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
United Kingdom
• Still a slightly positive (0.7%) market in 2019 after a flat growth in 2018
• Slightly positive growth is driven by residential market (1.3%) for both renovation and new construction.
• 2019 non residential market is negative (-2.3%) especially for new construction (-3.8%)
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 16
A negative market in 2019, after a rather flat market in 2018. Mix situation by country.
Slight growth in transport but negative outlook in B&C.
17 Extrusion & tube shipments in Scandinavia*
*Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland
Shipments
(in kt) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 54,2 54,8 52,4 52,6
Q2 53,3 53,8 52,4 52,4
Q3 45,6 45,5 45,8 45,0
Q4 47,2 46,0 45,4 45,6
Year 200,3 200,1 196,1 195,6
Growth (yoy)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 5,2% 1,1% -4,3% 0,2%
Q2 5,5% 0,8% -2,5% -0,1%
Q3 4,7% -0,2% 0,6% -1,7%
Q4 5,4% -2,5% -1,3% 0,4%
Year 5,2% -0,1% -2,0% -0,2%
Area Subtopic 2019 evolution
Cars -1% ≤X≤ 1%
Trucks & Trailers 1% <X≤ 3%
Rail Others
-3% ≤ X< -1%
General -1% ≤X≤ 1%
Electrical -1% ≤X≤ 1%
X < 10%
Imports outside Europe Building & Construction Transport/
Automotive
Engineering
Domestic & office equipment Stockists / traders
*
*ytd data until H1 2019 i.e. H1 2019 vs H1 2018
• Still a robust IP in most countries (~ 2%) for 2019 and 2020 even if lower than before
• Higher 2019 IP in DK with 4.7% and lower IP in SW and FI with 1.6%
Volumes &
Growth rate Cars Trucks 2018
volumes
0.4
Mio 48 000
2018 +10.8% +0.9%
2019(f) +3.2% -5.1%
2020(f) -6.8% -3.2%
Industrial production B&C production
Cars and trucks
18 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
Scandinavia
• Strong 2019 growth rate difference by country: NO (+4.7%) vs SW (-3.2%)
• In SW, strong drop of residential and non residential market in 2019 (-9.3%
and -2.7%). Drop especially driven by new construction while renovation is a bit less affected.
• 2019 growth for NO and DK are flat or positive for both market.
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 18
Still a strong market for 2019 and 2020 with a lower growth rate…
Growth is supported by robust B&C …
19 Extrusion & tube shipments in Spain
Shipments (in kt)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 52,4 53,8 55,0 55,7
Q2 50,5 51,6 52,8 53,5
Q3 41,7 43,0 43,9 44,5
Q4 41,5 42,9 43,6 44,2
Year 186,1 191,3 195,2 197,9
Growth (yoy)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 6,4% 2,6% 2,2% 1,4%
Q2 6,4% 2,2% 2,3% 1,4%
Q3 4,9% 3,2% 2,0% 1,4%
Q4 6,4% 3,5% 1,6% 1,4%
Year 6,1% 2,8% 2,0% 1,4%
Area Subtopic 2019 evolution
Cars -1% ≤X≤ 1%
Trucks & Trailers -1% ≤X≤ 1%
Rail Others
3% <X≤ 5%
General 1% <X≤ 3%
Electrical 1% <X≤ 3%
X > 10%
Transport/
Automotive
Engineering
Domestic & office equipment Stockists / traders Imports outside Europe Building & Construction
*
*ytd data until H1 2019 i.e. H1 2019 vs H1 2018
• Still a strong and robust growth rate in 2019 (+5%) after 6.3% in 2018
• Higher growth in residential (+7.1%) market than in non residential (+4.3%)
• 2019 market is especially driven by new construction (e.g. almost 10% in new residential)
Volumes &
Growth rate Cars Trucks 2018
volumes
2.8
Mio 23 000
2018 -0.5% -27.0%
2019(f) -1.4% +2.1%
2020(f) +7.3% -12.5%
Industrial production B&C production
Cars and trucks
20 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
Spain
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 20
Still a strong market for 2019 and 2020 but with lower growth rates*…
Most end uses seems still positive but at lower growth rate.
Strong increase from imports…
21 Extrusion & tube shipments in C&E Europe
Shipments (in kt)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 95,6 103,4 102,7 104,0
Q2 121,8 132,2 133,7 136,0
Q3 123,3 132,2 133,0 132,6
Q4 107,4 114,3 117,5 119,7
Year 448,1 482,1 486,9 492,3
Growth (yoy)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 7,2% 8,1% -0,6% 1,2%
Q2 9,7% 8,6% 1,1% 1,7%
Q3 10,4% 7,2% 0,6% -0,3%
Q4 6,6% 6,4% 2,8% 1,9%
Year 8,6% 7,6% 1,0% 1,1%
Area Subtopic 2019 evolution Cars 1% <X≤ 3%
Trucks & Trailers 1% <X≤ 3%
Rail Others
1% <X≤ 3%
General 1% <X≤ 3%
Electrical 1% <X≤ 3%
X > 15%
Transport/
Automotive
Engineering
Domestic & office equipment Stockists / traders Imports outside Europe*
Building & Construction
*ytd data until H1 2019 i.e. H1 2019 vs H1 2018
• Strong IP in most
countries for 2019 and 2020
• Highest growth in HU, PO, SK and SL (4-5%) while CZ, BU, CR, RO are
~2%
• Slighly lower growth rate are expected for 2020 in most countries
Volumes &
Growth rate Cars Trucks 2018
volumes
4.0
Mio 18 000
2018 +4.8% -6.7%
2019(f) +2.0% -5.8%
2020(f) -0.4% -0.8%
Industrial production B&C production
Cars and trucks
22 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
C&E countries
• Continuous strong growth in 2019 (+7.4%) for most country.
Only Slovakia is lower (+0.7%)
• Strong and robust growth rate in 2019 (>5%) in both residential and non residential market
• Growth is still higher in new construction than renovation.
• Higher growth are in PO and HU
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 22
A slightly negative outlook for 2019 and a flat growth for 2020…
Only B&C remain stable. Other market are negative. Strong pressure from imports from
outside Europe…
23 Extrusion & tube shipments in Austria
Shipments
(in kt) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 25,0 25,5 24,8 24,8
Q2 25,2 25,8 25,6 25,6
Q3 25,6 25,8 25,9 25,9
Q4 25,2 25,5 25,3 25,3
Year 101,1 102,6 101,6 101,6
Growth
(yoy) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 8,0% 1,8% -2,7% 0,0%
Q2 8,9% 2,2% -0,8% 0,0%
Q3 8,9% 0,9% 0,3% 0,0%
Q4 8,0% 0,9% -0,7% 0,0%
Year 8,4% 1,5% -1,0% 0,0%
Area Subtopic 2019 evolution
Cars -3% ≤ X< -1%
Trucks & Trailers -3% ≤ X< -1%
Rail -3% ≤ X< -1%
Others -3% ≤ X< -1%
-1% ≤X≤ 1%
General -3% ≤ X< -1%
Electrical -3% ≤ X< -1%
-3% ≤ X< -1%
-3% ≤ X< -1%
X > 7%
Transport/
Automotive
Engineering
Domestic & office equipment Stockists / traders Imports outside Europe Building & Construction
*
*ytd data until H1 2019 i.e. H1 2019 vs H1 2018
Volumes &
Growth rate Cars Trucks 2018
volumes
0.1
Mio 18 000
2018 +85.2% +7.0%
2019(f) +24.9% -3.7%
2020(f) -7.7% -10.4%
Industry and general economy
B&C production Cars and trucks
24 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
Austria
• A continuous positive growth in 2019 (+1.8%) after several years of growth since 2017
• Positive growth (~2%) in both residential and non residential market
• Same picture than above for new construction and renovation.
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 24
A flat growth in 2019 and 2020 after a strong growth in 2018…
A mix picture by end uses and jump of imports from outside Europe in H1 2019…
25 Extrusion & tube shipments in Belgium
Shipments (in kt)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 26,0 28,0 27,8 27,8
Q2 26,3 28,0 27,7 27,7
Q3 21,1 22,2 22,3 22,3
Q4 19,2 20,2 20,5 20,5
Year 92,6 98,4 98,4 98,4
Growth (yoy)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 3,6% 7,5% -0,5% 0,0%
Q2 3,9% 6,4% -1,0% 0,0%
Q3 4,4% 5,4% 0,4% 0,0%
Q4 3,6% 5,3% 1,5% 0,0%
Year 3,9% 6,2% 0,0% 0,0%
Area Subtopic 2019 evolution
Cars
-1% ≤X≤ 1%
Trucks & Trailers
-1% ≤X≤ 1%
Rail Others
1% <X≤ 3%
General
-3% ≤ X< -1%
Electrical
-3% ≤ X< -1%
X > 77%
Transport/
Automotive
Engineering
Domestic & office equipment Stockists / traders Imports outside Europe*
Building & Construction
*ytd data until H1 2019 i.e. H1 2019 vs H1 2018
Volumes &
Growth rate Cars Trucks 2018
volumes
0.3
Mio 44 000
2018 -20.3% -3.4%
2019(f) -5.4% +3.8%
2020(f) +5.6% +0.4%
Industrial production B&C production
Cars and trucks
26 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
Belgium
• A robust and positive growth in 2019 (+2.6%) after several years of positive growth since 2017
• Higher growth in non residential (+2.8%) than residential (+1.5%)
• Lower growth in residential in 2019 is related to a flat growth in new construction after a strong 2018 (+4.5%). However, situation is better post 2019…
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 26
A flat growth in 2019 and 2020 after a strong growth in 2018…
A mix picture by end uses and jump of imports from outside Europe in H1 2019…
27 Extrusion & tube shipments in Netherlands
Shipments
(in kt) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 35,5 38,2 38,0 38,0
Q2 37,7 41,6 41,1 41,1
Q3 37,1 40,9 40,9 40,9
Q4 29,5 32,3 32,9 32,9
Year 139,8 153,0 153,0 153,0
Growth (yoy)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 6,0% 7,6% -0,5% 0,0%
Q2 5,7% 10,4% -1,0% 0,0%
Q3 4,6% 10,5% 0,0% 0,0%
Q4 4,4% 9,3% 1,8% 0,0%
Year 5,2% 9,5% 0,0% 0,0%
Area Subtopic 2019 evolution
Cars
-1% ≤X≤ 1%
Trucks & Trailers
-1% ≤X≤ 1%
Rail Others
1% <X≤ 3%
General
-3% ≤ X< -1%
Electrical
-3% ≤ X< -1%
X > 29%
Transport/
Automotive
Engineering
Domestic & office equipment Stockists / traders Imports outside Europe*
Building & Construction
*ytd data until H1 2019 i.e. H1 2019 vs H1 2018
Volumes &
Growth rate Cars Trucks 2018
volumes
0.2
Mio 87 000
2018 +25.4% +7.5%
2019(f) -10.7% +0.1%
2020(f) -23.7% -4.6%
Industrial production B&C production
Cars and trucks
28 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
Netherlands
• A robust and positive growth in 2019 (+4.9%) after at least 4 years of strong growth
• Strong growth in both residential (+3.2%) and non residential (+4.8%) but at a lower speed than before
• Higher growth in new
construction (+5.9%) than in renovation (+2.1%) in 2019
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM 28
A slightly positive market in 2019 and 2020 after strong recovery in 2017 and 2018…
Growth driven by B&C and transport.
Strong pressure from imports…
29 Extrusion & tube shipments in Switzerland
Shipments
(in kt) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 17,5 17,6 18,3 18,2
Q2 17,4 19,5 18,0 18,0
Q3 17,5 17,1 16,5 16,7
Q4 17,4 18,2 19,9 20,4
Year 69,8 72,4 72,7 73,3
Growth (yoy)
2017 2018 2019 2020
Q1 11,2% 0,2% 4,3% -0,6%
Q2 6,6% 12,0% -7,4% 0,0%
Q3 8,8% -2,0% -3,8% 1,1%
Q4 13,5% 4,6% 8,9% 2,9%
Year 10,0% 3,7% 0,4% 0,9%
Area Subtopic 2019 evolution Cars 1% <X≤ 3%
Trucks & Trailers 1% <X≤ 3%
Rail Others
1% <X≤ 3%
General -1% ≤X≤ 1%
Electrical -1% ≤X≤ 1%
X > 28%
Transport/
Automotive
Engineering
Stockists / traders Domestic & office equipment
Imports outside Europe*
Building & Construction
*ytd data until H1 2019 i.e. H1 2019 vs H1 2018
Industrial production B&C production
Cars and trucks
30 Macro economic data by aluminium drivers…
Source: IHS – Sep 2019 report
*Passenger cars + Light Commercial Vehicles (< 6T)
**Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (> 6T)
Switzerland
• A flat growth rate in 2019 after few slight positive growth rate in the last years
• Non residential is robust and positive (+2.8%) while
residential is still negative (-3.4%
in 2019
• Positive growth in renovation (+0.6%) while new building is negative (-1.9%)
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european-aluminium.eu Email