Climate Projections for Transportation Infrastructure Planning, Operations & Maintenance, and Design

Climate Projections for

Transportation Infrastructure Planning, Operations &

Maintenance, and Design

KATHARINE HAYHOE, ANNE STONER, JO DANIEL, JENNIFER JACOBS and PAUL KIRSHEN

THE INFRASTRUCTURE CLIMATE NETWORK (ICNET.ORG)

The U.S. is getting warmer

Source: 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment

Heavy precipitation becoming more frequent

Source: 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment

Sea level is rising

Source: 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment

Billion dollar weather and climate disasters are on the rise

Climate changes can affect infrastructure in many ways. For example:

HIGH TEMPERATURES  reduced performance, faster

deterioration, different materials may be required to prevent rail line buckling, accelerated pavement rutting and other

impacts

HEAVY PRECIPITATION  impair operations and

maintenance, transportation network reliability, and safety;

limit infrastructure access caused by roadway flooding or subsurface subsidence, reduced culvert performance, and bridge scour

HURRICANES AND COASTAL FLOODING  puts at risk built infrastructure, such as sea ports, transportation, and levees, as well as residential areas including roads and bridges

In planning, we assume long term climate will remain stable and can be predicted based on past climate normals

Today, climate is manifestly non-stationary:

future climate conditions and weather risks will differ from those experienced in the past

How do we incorporate these trends into planning for operations, maintenance, and design of transportation infrastructure?

We have a good idea of how certain types of extremes are being affected

Larger wildfires in the West Stronger

rainfall and winter storms

Rising sea level and stronger

hurricanes Stronger and

more frequent heat waves

Others, we’re still arguing about

Droughts:

stronger, but more or less

frequent?

Polar Vortex:

related to Arctic warming?

Derechos:

Hard enough to predict, let alone project!

Tornadoes: are they affected?

WHAT CAN WE DO?

For some purposes, we can

stop right here ^.

We know enough about the

vulnerability of our system and the

direction of future change to build

resilience into future planning.

WHAT CAN WE DO?

For other planning purposes,

we need more ^.

CHICAGO, IL CAMBRIDGE, MA BOULDER, CO

How do we incorporate climate projections into future planning?

1.

being designed, built, and/or maintained.

2.

engineers and transportation experts to assess future impacts and minimize vulnerability

3.

For many impacts, including heavy precipitation, we can develop quantitative projections

STEP ONE: Use multiple simulations and models from latest generation of global climate model simulations (CMIP5)

STEP TWO: Develop projections for

multiple scenarios, from higher to lower

STEP THREE: Downscale to a continuous 1/16^th degree grid or to local weather stations

selected by the planners, engineers, or users

14 out of 18 city depts. identified temperature or precipitation-

sensitive thresholds.

These included:

Chicago Transit Authority

Dept. of Transportation Dept. of Emergency Response

STEP FOUR : Develop projections for impact- relevant climate indicators (ex. Chicago)

Or, how frequently we can expect combined sewer overflows

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70

1961-1990 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

number of days per year

Lower emissions Higher emissions

Or, how large we need to build our storm water infrastructure

Source: Hayhoe, for DNREC 2013

Or even, how much it will COST to adapt

For the

Northeast, we developed a suite of general indicators

Re-design

stormwater systems

This information can be used to …

Redraw

flood zones

This information can be used to …

This information can be used to …

Build more resilient

infrastructure

SUMMARY

Climate change affects average conditions as well as many different types of extreme weather events.

For many locations and situations, this means that we now need to account for non-stationarity when

planning for the future.

Although the future is uncertain, knowing the

direction and (in some cases) even the magnitude of future trends can inform cost-effective adaptation and preparedness.

SUMMARY

Climate change affects average conditions as well as many different types of extreme weather events.

For many locations and situations, this means that we now need to account for non-stationarity when

planning for the future.

Although the future is uncertain, knowing the

direction and (in some cases) even the magnitude of future trends can inform cost-effective adaptation and preparedness.

SUMMARY

Climate change affects average conditions as well as many different types of extreme weather events.

For many locations and situations, this means that we now need to account for non-stationarity when

planning for the future.

Although the future is uncertain, knowing the

direction and (in some cases) even the magnitude of future trends can inform cost-effective adaptation and preparedness.

THANK YOU!

www.theicnet.org