Market Survey leading to
Fuel Consumption norms
for
Diesel (Engine Driven)
Trucks & Buses in India
Draft Report
2012
ICRA Management Consulting Services Limited
IMaCS
Petroleum Conservation Research Association
Market Survey leading to Fuel
Consumption norms for
Diesel (Engine Driven) Trucks & Buses in
India
Final Report
2013
ICRA Management Consulting Services Limited
IMaCS
Disclaimer:- This report and the analysis herein is strictly for the use and benefit of Petroleum Conservation Research Association (PCRA) and shall not be relied upon by any other person. This report and the analysis herein are based on data and information collected by ICRA Management Consulting Services Limited (IMaCS) from sources believed to be reliable and authentic. While all reasonable care has been taken by IMaCS to ensure that the information and analysis contained herein is not untrue or misleading, neither IMaCS nor its Directors shall be responsible for any losses, direct, indirect, incidental or consequential that any user of this report may incur by acting on the basis of this report or its contents. IMaCS makes no representations or warranties in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the report. IMaCS’ analysis in this report is based on information that is currently available and may be liable to change. This report and the analysis herein should not be construed to be a credit rating assigned by ICRA Limited for any securities of any entity. Other than as expressly stated in this report, we express no opinion on any other issue. Our analysis/advice/recommendations should not be construed as legal advice on any issue.
T
ABLE
O
F
C
ONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ... 8
1 INTRODUCTION ... 15
1.1 Background ... 15
1.2 Scope of work ... 16
1.3 Limitations of our study ... 16
2 MARKET OVERVIEW OF TRUCKS AND BUSES IN INDIA ... 18
2.1 Market segmentation ... 18
2.2 Market size and Vehicle park ... 21
2.3 Future vehicle projections ... 26
2.4 Diesel consumption ... 28
3 OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARDS ... 31
3.1 Introduction ... 31
3.2 International benchmarks for fuel consumption standards for Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDVs) ... 33
3.2.1 United States ... 33
3.2.2 Japan ... 40
3.2.3 Canada ... 47
3.2.4 European Union (EU) ... 54
3.3 Issues and challenges faced in Implementation of HDV regulations ... 57
3.3.1 United States: ... 57
3.3.2 Canada ... 58
4 FRAMEWORK FOR DEFINING STANDARDS FOR DIESEL (ENGINE DRIVEN) TRUCKS AND BUSES IN INDIA ... 60
4.1 Fuel consumption roadmap vision ... 60
4.2 Approaches for defining fuel consumption standards ... 61
4.2.1 Attributes for Attribute-based continuous curve approach ... 63
4.2.2 Categories for Attribute-based continuous curve approach (with categories) ... 65
4.2.3 Testing procedures and Test cycles for measuring fuel consumption ... 65
4.3 Key Technology areas for improvement in fuel consumption ... 68
4.4.1 Vehicle standards ... 71
4.4.2 Engine standards ... 74
4.5 Estimation increase in fuel consumption by 2020, 2025... 77
4.5.1 Case I : Current fuel economy scenario ... 77
4.5.2 Case II : Fuel consumption standards regime ... 79
4.5.3 Estimated diesel consumption in India (trucks and buses) ... 81
4.5.4 Estimation of Fuel savings ... 81
4.6 Implementation roadmap - Draft time schedule for implementation of the program ... 83
5 OVERVIEW OF TESTING FACILITIES IN INDIA... 85
5.1 Introduction ... 85
5.2 Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) ... 85
5.3 National Automotive Testing and R&D Infrastructure Project (NATRiP) ... 87
5.4 Vehicle Research & Development Establishment (VRDE) ... 91
ANNEXURE I: ILLUSTRATIVE SPECIFICATIONS OF DIESEL ENGINES FOR TRUCKS AND BUSES IN INDIA ... 96
L
IST
O
F
T
ABLES
Table 2.1: Segmentation of trucks / goods carriers by Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) or MM ... 19
Table 2.2: Segmentation of buses by Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) or MM... 20
Table 2.3: Estimated diesel consumption by trucks and buses in India (2011-12) ... 30
Table 3.1: Fuel consumption and Emission standards for Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) ... 31
Table 3.2: Testing and simulation options for measurement of vehicle fuel economy ... 33
Table 3.3: Vehicle Weight Classes Defined by US Department of Transportation ... 34
Table 3.4: US CAFE Standards – For Light trucks ... 35
Table 3.5: US CAFE Standards – for Class 2b–8 Vocational Vehicles ... 37
Table 3.6: US CAFE Standards – for Class 7–8 Combination Vehicles ... 37
Table 3.7: US CAFE MY 2017 Combination Tractor Standards ... 38
Table 3.8: MY 2017 Combination Tractor Standards ... 38
Table 3.9: MY 2017 Combination Tractor Standards ... 40
Table 3.10: 2015 Fuel Efficiency Targets for Mini Cargo Vehicles ... 41
Table 3.11: 2015 Fuel Efficiency Targets for Light Cargo Vehicles, GVW ≤ 1.7 t ... 42
Table 3.12: 2015 Fuel Efficiency targets for diesel Medium Cargo Vehicles (1.7 t < GVW ≤ 3.5t) ... 42
Table 3.13: 2015 Fuel Efficiency Targets for Heavy-Duty Transit Buses ... 43
Table 3.14: 2015 Fuel Efficiency Targets for Heavy-Duty General (Non-Transit) Buses ... 43
Table 3.15: 2015 Fuel Efficiency Targets for Heavy-Duty Trucks (Excluding Tractors) ... 43
Table 3.16: 2015 Fuel Efficiency Targets for Heavy-Duty Tractors ... 44
Table 3.17: Driving Distance Proportion by Driving Mode ... 45
Table 3.18: Fuel efficiency improvements in Freight Vehicles ... 46
Table 3.19: Fuel efficiency improvements in Passenger vehicles (Riding capacity > 11 persons) ... 46
Table 3.20: Tax incentives on fuel-efficient and low-emissions vehicles ... 47
Table 3.21: Data for LDV and HDV (2011) ... 48
Table 3.22: For 2014 to 2017 model years ... 50
Table 3.23: For 2014 to 2018 model years ... 50
Table 3.24: CO2 Emission Standards for vocational vehicles ... 51
Table 3.25: Vocational vehicles CO2 Emission Standards for compression-ignition engine (diesel) ... 51
Table 3.26: Combination tractors CO2 Emission Standards ... 51
Table 3.27: Combination tractors CO2 Emission Standards for engines (in g/BHP-hr) ... 52
Table 3.28: EU Emission Standards for Light Commercial Vehicles ... 54
Table 4.1: Pros and Cons of approaches to the way standards are defined ... 62
Table 4.2: Comparison of attributes for Attribute-based continuous curve approach ... 64
Table 4.3: Categories for Attribute-based continuous curve approach ... 65
Table 4.4: Testing options for measurement of vehicle fuel economy ... 67
Table 4.5: Truck fuel economy improvement technology matrix ... 68
Table 4.6: Key Technology Areas for improvement in fuel consumption using off-the-shelf technologies and technologies that will be available in the 2015-2020 timeframe ... 70
Table 4.7: Targeted fuel economy improvement in 2020, 2025 (for illustrative purpose only) ... 72
Table 4.8: Estimated annual diesel consumption by “New trucks” purchased from 2015-16 onwards during 2015-16 and 2024-25 (under Current fuel efficiency scenario) ... 77
Table 4.9: Estimated annual diesel consumption by “New buses” purchased from 2015-16 onwards during 2015-16 and 2024-25 (under Current fuel efficiency scenario) ... 78
Table 4.11: Estimated annual diesel consumption by “New trucks” purchased from 2015-16 onwards
during 2015-16 and 2024-25 (under Fuel consumption standards regime) ... 80
Table 4.12: Estimated annual diesel consumption by “New buses” purchased from 2015-16 onwards during 2015-16 and 2024-25 (under Fuel consumption standards regime) ... 80
Table 4.13: Estimated Fuel savings from the proposed program ... 82
Table 5.1: ARAI Testing facilities ... 86
Table 5.2: List of NATRiP testing centers ... 87
Table 5.3: Details of testing facilities at iCAT, Manesar ... 87
Table 5.4: Proposed testing facilities at Global Automotive Research Center, Chennai ... 89
Table 5.5: Proposed testing facilities at National Automotive Test Tracks, Indore ... 90
Table 5.6: Proposed facilities at NIAIMT, Silchar... 91
Table 5.7: Proposed testing facilities at National Center for Vehicle research and Safety, Rae Bareli ... 91
Table 5.8: List of testing facilities at VRDE ... 92
L
IST
O
F
F
IGURES
Figure 2.1: Segmentation of Indian Automobile Industry ... 18
Figure 2.2: Domestic Market Share for Indian Automotive Industry (2011-12) ... 18
Figure 2.3: Annual sales of Buses and Trucks in India... 21
Figure 2.4: Annual sales of Trucks in India ... 21
Figure 2.5: Annual sales of Buses in India ... 22
Figure 2.6: Commercial vehicle sales break-up (2011-12) ... 22
Figure 2.7: Trucks – Changing sales mix (by weight categories) ... 23
Figure 2.8: Buses - Sales mix ... 23
Figure 2.9: Number of registered buses and goods vehicles in India (Cumulative) ... 24
Figure 2.10: Trucks Vehicle parc (by weight category) (as of March 31, 2012) ... 24
Figure 2.11: Buses Vehicle parc (by weight category) (as of March 31, 2012) ... 25
Figure 2.12: Trucks – Fleet break-up by age (as of March 31, 2012) ... 25
Figure 2.13: Buses – Fleet break-up by age (as of March 31, 2012) ... 25
Figure 2.14: Projected growth in sale of buses in India till 2025 ... 26
Figure 2.15: Projected sales mix of buses in 2019-20 and 2024-25 ... 27
Figure 2.16: Projected growth of trucks in India till 2025 ... 27
Figure 2.17: Projected sales mix of trucks in 2019-20 and 2024-2025 ... 28
Figure 2.18: Consumption of HSDO in India (in 000’ tonnes) ... 29
Figure 2.19: Diesel consumption mix in India... 29
Figure 3.1: HDV policy timelines across the globe ... 32
Figure 3.2: EPA CO2 Target Standards and NHTSA Fuel Consumption Target Standards for Diesel HD Pickups and Vans ... 36
Figure 3.3: Overview of Simulation method ... 44
Figure 3.4: Regulated category of vehicles in Canada ... 48
Figure 4.1: Baseline fuel consumption data for trucks (for illustrative purpose only) ... 71
Figure 4.2: Baseline fuel consumption data for buses (for illustrative purpose only) ... 72
Figure 4.3: Fuel consumption targets for trucks 2020, 2025 (for illustrative purpose only) ... 73
Figure 4.4: Fuel consumption targets for buses 2020, 2025 (for illustrative purpose only) ... 74
Figure 4.5: Baseline Engine efficiency data (for illustrative purpose only) ... 75
Figure 4.6: Engine efficiency targets 2020 (for illustrative purpose only) ... 76
E
XECUTIVE
S
UMMARY
Background
India is the fifth largest commercial vehicle manufacturer and one of the fastest growing commercial vehicle markets in the world. Annual sales of trucks in India has grown from 111,485 trucks in 2001-02 to 682,300 trucks in 2011-12 at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of around 20 per cent while that of buses has remained relatively flat, increasing from 89,812 buses in 2001-02 to 98,763 buses in 2011-12, growing at a CAGR of around 1 per cent. An estimated 1.34 million buses and 4.17 million trucks are plying on the roads in India. Rapid growth in number of trucks and buses in India during the last decade has significantly increased diesel consumption in India. In 2011-12, India’s total diesel consumption stood at about 64.74 million tonnes; road transport accounted for about 64 per cent of diesel consumption, of which trucks and buses consumed around 77 per cent diesel (trucks consuming 24.03 million tonnes and buses consuming around 7.77 million tonnes). In future, truck sales is estimated to grow at around 8.9 per cent y-o-y between 2012-13 and 2024-45 from 0.80 million in 2012-13 to 2.23 million in 2024-25. Over the same period, bus sales is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.7 per cent to increase from 0.11 million in 2012-13 to 0.21 million in 2024-25. The estimated diesel consumption by trucks and buses in India is expected to increase from around 31.8 million tonne in 2011-12 to around 104.7 million tonne in 2024-25, thereby registering a CAGR of 9.6%. Considering India’s dependence on imports of crude oil, it becomes imperative for India to take steps to reduce diesel consumption by trucks and buses over medium to long-term. However, fuel economy of trucks and buses has almost remained stagnant over the last five years. Change in emission regime from BS III to BS IV in some of the cities of the country has made the job of balancing emissions and fuel economy tougher for bus and truck manufacturers.
In this context, Petroleum Conservation Research Association (PCRA) has embarked upon the process of preparation of Fuel Efficiency program for Diesel (Engine Driven) Trucks & Buses in India. In this context, PCRA had mandated ICRA Management Consulting Services Limited (IMaCS) to prepare a Report on market survey leading to fuel consumption norms for diesel (engine driven) trucks & buses in India. We have prepared this report covering the findings of our exercise for development of Fuel Consumption norms for Diesel Trucks & Buses in India.
Global fuel consumption standards for Heavy Duty Vehicles
With limited oil reserves, the Governments around the world have taken cognisance of the situation, with several countries in the process of setting standards for regulating the fuel consumption by Heavy-Duty vehicles (HDVs). HDVs have a relatively short history of fuel consumption regulations.
Establishing fuel efficiency norms for HDVs is significantly more challenging due to their diversity in terms of vehicle size, configurations and usage patterns. Because of these challenges, HDV fuel efficiency standards have just begun to be proposed and adopted in some of the major vehicle markets in the world. Japan was the first country, which introduced such standards in 2005, providing a roadmap for improvement in fuel efficiency of HDVs up to 2015. The US has finalized HDV fuel efficiency standards in 2011, which begin with model year 2014, and increase in stringency through 2018. Canada has aligned its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission standards with the US HDV fuel efficiency standards. Europe and China are in the process of designing HDV efficiency standards. With increasing focus on the fuel efficiency/GHG emissions of M&HCV across the globe, a number of countries are expected to introduce regulatory norms in the coming years.
An important consideration in designing and implementation of norms for HDV vehicles is defining of duty cycle and testing conditions. Testing of HDV vehicles requires additional forethought given the diversity of size and applications of the vehicles. Computer simulation of the whole truck (typically in combination with engine testing on a bench dynamometer) seems to be the favoured option by the Governments across the globe due to ease of implementation, accuracy of results and cost-effectiveness. China is planning to use chassis dynamometer testing for main HDV vehicle families and computer simulation for variants.
Testing and simulation options for measurement of vehicle fuel economy
S No Type of test Parts simulated Cost of test Countries considering fuel consumption norms for HDVs
(1) On-road None Low None
(2) Computer
simulation All Low US, EU, Japan, China
(3) Engine dynamometer
Road and non-engine
components High US, EU, Japan
(4) Chassis
dynamometer Road Very High China
Source: IEA – “Technology Roadmap - Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles”
Framework for defining standards for diesel (engine-driven) trucks and buses in India
India currently has standards to reduce air pollutants from motor vehicles; however, there are no standards to reduce fuel consumption of motor vehicles in India. Efforts are already underway for development of fuel consumption standards for passenger vehicles in India. Though passenger vehicles in India are smaller in size and consume less fuel than their western counterparts, the Indian commercial vehicles (trucks and buses) often consume more fuel.
In order to develop the framework for defining standards for diesel (engine driven) trucks and buses, it is imperative to define a long-term objective or vision for setting up these standards and various stakeholders shall jointly agree upon a Fuel Consumption Roadmap vision. For instance,
“To reduce fuel consumption per kilometre by 12 per cent to 20 per cent in new diesel (engine driven) trucks and buses in India by 2020, and by 30 per cent to 50 per cent by 2025, in order to significantly reduce diesel consumption, compared with a baseline projection.”
Fuel consumption standards are mainly set as fuel consumption targets based on the average of the total fleet of vehicles sold (corporate average fuel economy). Fleet average fuel economy standards provide flexibility to manufacturers to achieve the target across sales mix rather than with each individual vehicle sold. Both Japan and the United States have adopted Attribute-based target HDV standards based on vehicle categories. Attribute-based target values are estimated as a continuous function of vehicle attributes i.e. corporate averaging across all categories of vehicles for each manufacturer, where the target varies depending on the average weight or size of the vehicles sold by a manufacturer. For trucks and buses, gross vehicle weight (GVW) and payload are more appropriate attributes than vehicle weight for developing fuel consumption standards.
The attribute-based continuous curve approach (with separate standards for trucks and buses) is the best option in the first phase of implementation of the standards for India. This approach will provide enough flexibility for manufacturers without being unfair or cost ineffective to any manufacturer, while ensuring that the target is achieved. Instead of targeting fuel consumption reduction across all vehicle categories (i.e. across various GVW categories), the manufacturers can focus on reducing fuel consumption based on a target value determined as the average of the attribute (vehicle weight or footprint or others) of the vehicles that it sells, weighted by the sales of each model using a continuous curve standard. Thereafter, in the second phase of fuel consumption standards, attribute-based continuous curve approach can be implemented for various sub-categories of vehicles. Accordingly, we have considered phase-in approach with two set of targets, one for the year 2019-20 (first phase) to be achieved between 2015-16 to 2019-20 and other for 2024-25 (second phase), to be achieved between 2020-21 to 2024-25. These targets could focus on reducing fuel consumption in line with Fuel Consumption Roadmap vision, say, by 12 to 20 per cent in new diesel (engine driven) trucks and buses by 2019-20, and by 30 to 50 per cent by 2024-25, across various vehicle categories defined by GVW of the vehicles, compared with a baseline projection. The targets for 2019-20 are relatively less stringent and are primarily based on improvements in engine technology. The targets increase in stringency after 2019-20 since additional suite of technologies would be considered for achieving the target standards for 2024-25. In both the phases, yearly improvements at 15-20-40-60-100 per cent across five years as compared to baseline data have been considered.
One of the pre-requisites for development of fuel consumption standards is collection of baseline data for various models of buses and trucks under pre-defined test conditions. In India, the fuel economy details of various vehicle models of trucks and buses are neither disclosed by the manufacturers nor collected by testing agencies like ARAI. Therefore, setting up fuel consumption standards for trucks and buses will require testing of various available models of buses and trucks prior to setting up the standards. Moreover, test cycles will have to be standardised for various categories for which standards are to be developed. As it is easier to establish test-cycles for engine testing, engine standards for fuel consumption by trucks and buses could be developed and implemented in the first phase, followed by vehicle standards for fuel consumption in subsequent phases.
In this report, we have illustrated the framework for fuel consumption standards (both for vehicle and engine fuel consumption standards) based on baseline data gathered from end-users of trucks and buses. Since the baseline data should be collected under pre-defined test conditions, the baseline data used by us should be further refined by elaborate testing of different categories of trucks and buses. Our illustrations for vehicle and engine fuel consumption standards in this report are limited by availability of fuel efficiency data for trucks and buses in India. For our illustrations, we have defined fuel consumption in Litre per 100-km for vehicle standards and fuel efficiency as km/l for engine standards. The detailed framework for fuel consumption standards is provided in Section 4 of this report.
Estimation of Fuel savings
1Under the current fuel economy scenario, the diesel consumption by trucks and buses in India is expected to increase from around 31.8 million tonne in 2011-12 to around 104.7 million tonne in 2024-25, thereby registering a CAGR of 9.6%. Trucks will continue to account for major share of diesel consumption with their share increasing from around 76% in 2011-12 to around 87% in 2024-25. Total diesel consumption by buses is expected to increase from 7.8 million tonne in 2012-12 to 13.7 million tonne in 2024-25.
In contrast, under fuel consumption standards regime, the estimated diesel consumption by trucks and buses in India will increase from around 31.8 million tonne in 2011-12 to around 91.4 million tonne in 2024-25, thereby registering a CAGR of 8.5%. Trucks will continue to account for major share of diesel consumption with their share increasing from around 76% in 2011-12 to around 86% in 2024-25. Total diesel consumption by buses is expected to increase from 7.8 million tonne in 2012-12 to 12.4 million tonne in 2024-25.
1 For estimation of diesel consumption in value terms, we have assumed the price of diesel as Rs 47 per litre
Based on the two scenarios - Current fuel efficiency scenario and Fuel consumption standards regime, cumulative fuel savings due to the proposed program is estimated to be around 46.57 million tonne (around Rs 2,630 billion in value terms) over the ten year period 2015-16 to 2024-25. Fuel savings due to trucks contribute around 90 per cent of the savings under the proposed program. It should be noted that the benefits from the proposed program will be derived primarily over medium to long term (as vehicles on-road, purchased during duel consumptions norms regime achieve a sizeable share in overall vehicle parc). The quantum of fuel savings will increase from 0.14 million tonne in 2015-16 to 13.37 million tonne in 2024-25.
Implementation roadmap - Draft time schedule for implementation of the program
The Implementation roadmap is summarised as follows:-
I Planning Phase 1 Year
a)
Development of a framework for fuel consumption standards, finalise strategy for testing of fuel efficiency of trucks and buses under standard test conditions, development of test cycles, setting up of testing infrastructure for testing of trucks and buses to collect fuel efficiency data under standard test cycles, design of fuel consumption standards and finalisation of implementation plan and policy measures for implementation
II Consultation Phase 6 months
j)
Consultation with various stakeholders on policies framed and schedule of implementation of fuel consumption standards and finalisation of fuel consumption standards and finalisation of implementation plan and policy measures for implementation
III Implementation Phase 6 months
Decide fuel economy certification process and compliance monitoring mechanisms and conduct vehicle testing and monitoring as per strategies developed for implementation
Targeted enforcement of fuel consumption standards:- 2015-16
Since lack of availability of standardised data is the biggest challenge for development of fuel consumption norms in India, therefore, the focus in initial phase i.e. the planning phase of the Implementation roadmap should be on developing the fuel consumption framework and the testing strategy for testing of diesel (engine) driven trucks and buses. This phase will involve defining the test
cycle and standard test conditions under which fuel economy data would be recorded. This phase will also involve defining the policy measures for implementing the fuel consumption standards. In the second phase i.e. the Consultation phase, focus shall be on bringing various stakeholders on board to hold discussions on policies and schedule of implementation of fuel consumption standards and build consensus across various stakeholders. Based on the feedback and concerns of various stakeholders, the fuel consumption standards and policy measures for implementing the fuel consumption standards shall be finalised. The Implementation phase will involve vehicle testing as per defined standards and establishing a monitoring framework for the program.
1 I
NTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Petroleum conservation Research Association (PCRA), established in 1978, is a non-profit registered society (Society’s Registration Act 1860) under the ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Govt. of India, with a mission of efficient energy utilization & environment protection leading to conservation and improvement in quality of life. PCRA’s mission is efficient utilization of fuel and energy and environment protection leading to improvement in quality of life. Its mandate is to reduce the energy intensity in various sectors of the economy leading to reduction in GHG emission.
PCRA is working in close coordination with Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) for formulation of Standards leading to Efficiency Labels for appliances that use petroleum products as fuel. Accordingly, it has been proposed to initially initiate work for developing fuel conservation norms for the following equipment:
LPG Stoves
Diesel Generating sets up to 1250 kVA
Diesel Engine operated Agricultural pump
Diesel Engine driven Trucks and Buses
PCRA has proposed to initiate development of fuel consumption norms for Diesel (Engine Driven) Trucks and Buses to facilitate consumers with the necessary data for making informed purchases. Moreover, fuel efficiency performance standards for these vehicles will help in reducing diesel consumption of India and will help buyers in making prudent, fuel-efficient purchases.
For this purpose, PCRA is embarking on the process of preparation of Fuel Efficiency program for Diesel (Engine Driven) Trucks & Buses in India. The objective of the project is to
Transform the manufacture and sale of Diesel (Engine driven) Trucks & Buses to higher levels of fuel efficiency, thereby achieving economic benefits and improving environmental sustainability in the long run
Facilitate the buyers in making fuel-efficient purchase of these commercial vehicles
It is in this context that PCRA has mandated ICRA Management Consulting Services Limited (IMaCS) to prepare a Status Report based on market survey leading to fuel consumption norms for diesel (engine driven) trucks & buses in India. The primary objective of this project is to build upon
existing initiatives in India and other countries to promote cost-effective adoption and implementation of fuel consumption standards for Diesel (Engine driven) Trucks & Buses.
We have prepared this Final Report covering the findings of the market survey and supplementary secondary research for development of Fuel Consumption norms for Diesel Trucks & Buses in India, incorporating the feedback received from PCRA.
1.2 Scope of work
The Scope of Work of the engagement as mentioned in the tender document was as follows:
1. Preparation of Status Report on fuel consumption Performance Standards for Diesel (Engine driven) Trucks & Buses in India based on a detailed market survey. The Status report will encompass, but not be limited to the following issues:
a. The Market Overview of these vehicles in India b. Fuel Consumption pattern of these vehicles in India c. Estimated Growth Potential of these vehicles
d. Identification of Benchmarks in terms of fuel consumption
e. Estimated projection of increase in fuel consumption by 2020, 2025. f. Fuel Savings projections due to proposed programme
g. To compare the similar international initiatives to understand the different approaches followed by countries like USA, Europe, China, Australia and Japan
h. Identification of Testing Standards & Facilities in India for these areas i. Applicable Indian and International Standards and codes
j. Identification of All Stake holders
k. Minimum Fuel Consumption Performance Standards and criteria (fuel consumption thresholds)
l. Identify the Issues & Challenges in implementation
m. Develop a draft time schedule for implementation of this program
1.3 Limitations of our study
This Final Report is based on the market survey findings, review of various documents available in public domain and discussions with various stakeholders, including clarifications, opinions, representations, information and statements made by personnel of various stakeholder organisations on fuel consumption norms for diesel (engine driven) trucks & buses in India, during the course of
discussions held with them. Accordingly, the findings and conclusions in this report is limited to the following:
a. Public information – data, estimates, industry and statistical information contained in this report have been obtained from various sources considered reliable by us. However, we independently did not verify such information and make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information obtained from or provided by such sources.
b. While preparing this Report, in addition to the documents and information provided to us by various stakeholders, we have also relied on oral and written responses to our queries as received from the stakeholders. We have not independently verified the accuracy or correctness of such information or the veracity of such documents and presumed the authenticity of such documents and information provided to us;
c. Neither the professionals who worked on this engagement nor IMaCS have any present or contemplated future interest / personal interest with respect to the parties involved, or any other interest that might prevent us from performing an unbiased assessment. Our compensation is not contingent on an action or event resulting from the analyses, opinions, or conclusions in, or the use of, this report.
d. IMaCS does not assume any liability, financial or otherwise, for any loss or injury that the user of the views and comments in this report may experience in any transaction. Although reasonable care has been taken to ensure that any information herein is true, such information is provided 'as-is' without any warranty of any kind and IMaCS, in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, authenticity, timeliness or completeness of any such information.
2 M
ARKET
O
VERVIEW OF
T
RUCKS AND
B
USES IN
I
NDIA
2.1 Market segmentation
The Indian Automotive industry is one the largest and fastest growing industries in the world. The industry is divided into four segments: Passenger vehicles, Commercial vehicles, Three-wheelers and Two wheelers.
Figure 2.1: Segmentation of Indian Automobile Industry
In 2011-12, around 17.38 million vehicles were sold in the domestic market, with two wheelers accounting for more than 77 per cent of sales, while commercial vehicles accounting for around 4.7 per cent of the sales. Annual sales of trucks and buses were 682,300 and 98,763, respectively, with estimated vehicle park of 4,173,844 trucks and 1,344,870 buses (as on March 31, 2012).
Figure 2.2: Domestic Market Share for Indian Automotive Industry (2011-12)
Source: SIAM
Auto
Industry
Passenger Vehicles Passenger Cars Utility Vehicles Multi-purpose Vehicles Commercial Vehicles Light commercial vehicles Medium and heavy commercial vehicles Three-wheelers Passenger carriers Goods carriers Two-wheelers Mopeds Scooters Motorcycles Electric two-wheelers Passenger Vehicles 15.1% Commercial Vehicles 4.7% Three Wheelers 3.0% Two Wheelers 77.3%Commercial vehicles are classified into following categories:-
Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) (Gross Vehicle Weight <7.5 tonne) and
Medium & Heavy Commercial vehicles (M&HCVs) (Gross Vehicle Weight >7.5 tonne)
For the purpose of our study, we have aligned our classification of vehicles as per SIAM weight categories2. Segmentation of buses and trucks as per SIAM classification, major applications of vehicles and the key players in each category are given below:
Table 2.1: Segmentation of trucks / goods carriers by Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) or MM3
Vehicle Categories Application Key Players
Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs)
3.5≤ MM Intra-city goods
transportation
Tata Motors
Force Motors
Mahindra & Mahindra
Hindustan motors
Piaggio Vehicles
3.5<MM≤5
Inter-city and intra-city goods transportation (Daily deliver load - milk and fruit crates, vegetables, bottled water)
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Mahindra & Mahindra
Force Motors
SML Isuzu
5<MM≤7.5 Inter-city and intra-city goods transportation
Tata Motors
Force Motors
Mahindra Navistar
VE CVs – Eicher Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCVs)
7.5<MM≤10 Parcel & courier, intercity logistics, agri-perishables
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Mahindra & Mahindra
VE CVs - Eicher
10<MM≤12 Parcel & courier, intercity logistics, agri-perishables
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Mahindra & Mahindra
VE CVs – Eicher
12<MM≤16.2 Intra-city distribution, market load, construction
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Mahindra & Mahindra
VE CVs – Eicher
2 SIAM classifies and collects data for commercial vehicles by sub-dividing them into finer weight categories. 3 Maximum Mass (MM) or Gross Vehicle Weight is the vehicle rating based on the combined weight of the
Vehicle Categories Application Key Players
16.2<MM≤25
Market load, construction, bulkers, minerals, tankers, Stone , marble , re-fuellers
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Mahindra & Mahindra
VE CVs – Eicher
25<MM
Auto carriers, Market load, cement, tankers, parcel & white goods, construction, bulkers, minerals, tankers
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Mahindra & Mahindra
VE CVs – Eicher
Daimler India Commercial Vehicles
Source: SIAM, IMaCS Analysis
Table 2.2: Segmentation of buses by Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) or MM4
Vehicle Categories Application Key Players
Light Commercial Vehicles MM≤5 tonnes (M2 (A2) ) (no. of seats including the driver exceeding 13)
Intra-city buses for School, Staff and Executives
Tata Motors
Force Motors
Mahindra & Mahindra
5≤MM<7.5 tonnes Intra-city buses for School, Staff and Executives
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Mahindra & Mahindra
Force Motors
SML Isuzu MM≤ 5 tonnes (M2 (A1) ) (no. of
seats including the driver not exceeding 13)
Intra-city buses for School, Staff and Executives
Tata Motors
Force Motors Heavy Commercial Vehicles
7.5<MM≤12 tonnes Inter-City and Intra-city buses
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Mahindra & Mahindra
VE CVs - Eicher
SML Isuzu
12<MM≤16.2 tonnes Inter-City and Intra-city buses
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
JCBL
Mahindra & Mahindra
VE CVs - Eicher
SML Isuzu
Volvo Buses India
16.2<MM tonnes Inter-City and Intra-city buses Volvo Buses India
Source: SIAM, IMaCS Analysis
4 Maximum Mass (MM) or Gross Vehicle Weight is the vehicle rating based on the combined weight of the
2.2 Market size and Vehicle park
Sales of trucks and buses
India is the fifth largest commercial vehicle manufacturer and one of the fastest growing commercial vehicles markets in the world. Annual sales of trucks and buses in India has grown at a CAGR of over 14% between 2001-02 and 2011-12.
Figure 2.3: Annual sales of Buses and Trucks in India (in ‘000 vehicles)
Source: SIAM
Annual sales of trucks in India has grown from 111,485 trucks in 2001-02 to 682,300 trucks in 2011-12, growing at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of around 20 per cent over this period.
Sales of trucks and buses (by segment)
Amongst trucks, LCV segment has grown at a CAGR of 25% between 2001-02 and 2011-12, significantly faster than M&HCV segment, which has grown at CAGR of around 15% during the same period.
Figure 2.4: Annual sales of Trucks in India (in ‘000 vehicles) Source: SIAM 90 89 110 118 108 107 111 99 109 93 99 111 149 209 261 288 390 399 312 437 563 682 0 200 400 600 800 in '00 0 ve h ic le s Buses Trucks 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 43 57 80 100 121 168 188 174 253 317 411 68 92 129 161 167 222 211 139 183 246 271 M&HCV LCV in '00 0 v ehi cles
The annual sales of buses in India has remained relatively flat over the last ten years, increasing from 89,812 buses in 2001-02 to 98,763 buses in 2011-12, growing at a CAGR of around 1 per cent over this period. The major reason for this flat growth in buses is the drastic reduction in demand for vehicles in MM≤ 5 tonnes (M2 (A1)) category, which has gone down from 59,481 buses in 2001-02 to 8,650 buses in 2011-12. Excluding this segment from our analysis, annual sales of buses in India has grown at a CAGR of around 12 per cent. Amongst buses, LCV segment has registered a decrease in sales at a CAGR of -3.8% between 2001-02 and 2011-12 due to decrease in demand for vehicles in MM≤ 5 tonnes (M2 (A1)) category. However, the M&HCV segment of buses has grown at a CAGR of over 11% during the same period.
Figure 2.5: Annual sales of Buses in India (in ‘000 vehicles)
Source: SIAM
Trucks accounted for about 88 per cent of the commercial vehicles sold in India 2011-12. Amongst the various sub-segments, LCV trucks accounted for around 53 per cent of the total commercial vehicle sales in 2011-12.
Figure 2.6: Commercial vehicle sales break-up (2011-12)
Source: SIAM 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 73 69 85 93 80 79 72 64 66 45 49 17 20 25 26 28 29 39 35 43 48 49 M&HCV LCV in '00 0 v ehi cles MCV & HCV Passenger Carriers 6% MCV & HCV Goods Carriers 35% LCV Passenger Carriers 6% LCV Goods Carriers 53%
Sales of trucks and buses (by weight category)
Analysis of sales pattern of trucks over the last 5 years indicates increasing polarisation of demand towards lighter (MM≤3.5 tonne) and heavier (MM>25 tonne) trucks segments. The share of vehicles in MM≤3.5 tonne category in the total domestic truck sales has grown from around 39.4 per cent in 2007-8 to around 52.9 per cent in 2011-12. Trucks in MM>25 tonne category accounted for 0.7 per cent of sales in 2007-08. In 2011-12, about 9.5 per cent of trucks sold in India belonged to MM>25 tonne category.
Figure 2.7: Trucks – Changing sales mix (by weight categories)
Source: SIAM In case of buses, the buses in the segment 5>MM (M2 (A2) ) and 7.5<MM≤12 have registered the fastest growth indicating the increasing demand for intra-city travel.
Figure 2.8: Buses - Sales mix
Source: SIAM MM≤3.5 , 39.4% 3.5<MM ≤5, 0.6% 5<MM≤7 .5 , 7.1% 7.5<MM ≤12, 10.2% 12<MM≤ 16.2, 15.1% 16.2<M M≤25, 26.8% 25<MM, 0.7% MM≤3.5 52.9% 3.5<M≤5 1.2% 5<MM≤7 .5 6.1% 7.5<MM ≤12 9.8% 12<MM≤ 16.2 8.9% 16.2<M M≤25 11.5% 25<MM 9.5% 5>MM( M2(A2)) 9.1% 5<MM≤7 .5 16% 5>MM( M2(A1)) 40.0% 7.5<MM ≤12 5.0% 12<MM≤ 16.2 29.9% 16.2<M M 0.0% 5>MM(M2(A2)) 18.9% 5<MM≤7 .5 22% 5>MM(M 2(A1)) 8.8% 7.5<MM ≤12 15.0% 12<MM≤ 16.2 34.6% 16.2<M M 0.4% 2007-08 2011-12 2007-08 2011-12
Vehicle parc of trucks and buses
Between 2001 and 2011, number of registered buses and goods vehicles in India has grown at a CAGR of 9.7 per cent and 9.1 per cent respectively. Although the number of registered goods vehicles and buses in India in 2011 were 7.1 million and 1.6 million, respectively, the no. of on-road trucks and buses are estimated at 4.17 million and 1.34 million, respectively (as on March 31, 2012).
Figure 2.9: Number of registered buses and goods vehicles in India (Cumulative)
Source: Road Transport Year Book 2009-10 & 2010-11, Ministry of Road Transport & Highways In order to estimate the vehicle parc, we have assumed that the average age of trucks and buses as 15 years.
Vehicle parc of trucks and buses (by weight category)
Trucks with MM ≤3.5 form about 36.5 per cent of total on-road trucks in India. This segment is one of the fastest growing sub-segments in trucks due to increasing demand for intra-city goods transportation. With higher mileage and low turning radius, vehicles in this category are ideally suited to traverse through narrow city lanes and traffic in India. Going forward, the demand for this segment is expected to remain strong, which is evident from the slew of new launches in this segment by the commercial vehicle manufacturers. There is an evident trend of increasing demand of Heavy-duty trucks, which are used in construction and mining industries. This is also an indicator of increasing economic activity in India.
Figure 2.10: Trucks Vehicle parc (by weight category) (as of March 31, 2012)
Source: PCRA, IMaCS Analysis 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.4 5.1 5.6 6.0 6.4 7.1 N o . o f veh ic le s in m ill io n Goods Vehicles Buses MM≤3.5 36.5% 3.5<MM≤5 0.9% 5<MM≤7.5 10.4% 7.5<MM≤12 9.5% 12<MM≤16.2 18.2% 16.2<MM≤25 16.0% 25<MM 8.4%
Of the total on-road buses, about 45% are in the 5>MM (M2(A1)) category. Vehicles in this category are mainly used for intra-city travel, especially for catering to travel needs of staff and employees. In absolute terms, the number of on-road vehicles in this category is estimated at over 0.6 million.
Figure 2.11: Buses Vehicle parc (by weight category) (as of March 31, 2012)
Source: PCRA, IMaCS Analysis
Age of Vehicles
The trucks fleet in India is relatively young; around 57% of the trucks have age below 5 years. This can be attributed to sharp increase in sales of trucks, specifically in the MM≤3.5 segment, during last five years.
Figure 2.12: Trucks – Fleet break-up by age (as of March 31, 2012)
Source: IMaCS Analysis, SIAM
Out of 1,344,870 buses plying on the roads in India, around 38% or 510,212 buses are less than 5 years old. About 22% of the bus fleet in India is older than ten years.
Figure 2.13: Buses – Fleet break-up by age (as of March 31, 2012)
Source: IMaCS Analysis, SIAM
No. of trucks and buses to be scrapped5 in 2011-12 is estimated at around 1,52,000 and 83,000, respectively.
5
Assuming average age of trucks and buses as 15 years 0
1000 2000 3000
0-5 years 5-10 years Over 10 years
2,393 1,297 484 in '00 0 ve h icl es 0 200 400 600
0-5 years 5-10 years Over 10 years
510 533 302 in '00 0 ve h icl es 5>MM (M2(A2)) 9.9% 5<MM≤7.5 13.1% 5>MM (M2(A1)) 45.1% 7.5<MM≤12 4.8% 12<MM≤16.2 27.0% 16.2<MM 0.1%
2.3 Future vehicle projections
Rising incomes, increasing government focus on infrastructure development and increasing economic activity are the key drivers, which are expected to fuel the demand for commercial vehicles in India. Also, road transport is considered to be one of the most cost effective and preferred mode of transport for both passengers and transportation of goods in India. Therefore, demand for both freight and passenger movement in India is expected to remain firm, which will fuel sale of buses and trucks in India. Thus, strong growth trend in India’s commercial vehicle industry is expected to continue in future as well.
The major reason for flat growth in buses in the last decade is the drastic reduction in demand for vehicles in MM≤ 5 tonnes (M2 (A1)) category, which has gone down from 59, 481 buses in 2001-02 to 8,650 buses in 2011-12. Eliminating this segment from our analysis, annual sales of buses in India has grown at a CAGR of around 12 per cent. With rapid urbanisation and improving infrastructure, the demand for passenger transport is expected to remain positive in India. Between 2012-13 and 2024-25, sale of buses is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.7 per cent to increase from 0.11 million to 0.21 million.
Figure 2.14: Projected growth in sale of buses in India till 2025
Source: PCRA, IMaCS Analysis Amongst the various sub-segments, buses with MM > 16.2 tonne (luxury buses), is expected to register highest annual growth of around 12 per cent. This can be directly attributed to increasing per capita income and growing ease of inter-city travel due to development of world-class highways. Another buses segment which is expected to grow faster is 7.5t < MM < 12t. The demand for this segment will be driven by travel needs of employees of various corporates and other institutions, which will be predominantly utilised for intra-city travel. 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.17 0.21 in mil lion CAGR = 5.7%
Figure 2.15: Projected sales mix of buses in 2019-20 and 2024-25
Source: PCRA, IMaCS Analysis Increasing purchasing power, government focus on improving infrastructure and a relatively young population has increased the demand for transportation of goods in the country. Roads are the dominant mode of transportation of freight in the country today. With improvement in highways and other roads in the country, road transportation is expected to remain the preferred mode of goods transportation, which in turn will fuel the demand for trucks in India. Trucks are estimated to register strong growth of around 8.9 per cent between 2012-13 and 2024-45. In absolute terms, the total volume of truck sales is expected to grow from 0.80 million in 2012-13 to 2.23 million in 2024-25.
Figure 2.16: Projected growth of trucks in India till 2025
Source: PCRA, IMaCS Analysis 5>MM(M 2(A2)), 21.5% 5<MM≤7 .5, 21.0% 5>MM( M2(A1)), 6.8% 7.5<MM ≤12, 20.6% 12<MM≤ 16.2, 29.3% 16.2<M M, 0.8% 5>MM(M 2(A2)), 22.4% 5<MM≤7 .5, 20.5% 5>MM(2 (A1)), 6.3% 7.5<MM ≤12, 22.3% 12<MM≤ 16.2, 27.5% 16.2<M M, 1.0% 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 0.68 0.80 0.92 1.04 1.16 1.28 1.63 2.23 CAGR = 8.9% in mil lion 2019-20 2024-25
With “Hub & Spoke” model increasingly adopted across India, there is clear evidence of polarization of tonnage in the CV segment towards heavy and lower tonnages. Amongst the various sub-segments, trucks with Gross vehicle weight ≤3.5 tonne and greater than 25 tonnes are expected to grow faster than other sub-segments. Sales of trucks in the category Gross vehicle weight ≤3.5 tonne is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 10 per cent to increase from 0.36 million in 2011-12 to around 1.27 million in 2024-25. Truck sales in category Gross vehicle weight> 25 tonne is expected to register fastest growth amongst the various sub-segments at a CAGR of over 11 per cent to increase to about 0.3 million in 2024-25.
Figure 2.17: Projected sales mix of trucks in 2019-20 and 2024-2025
Source: PCRA, IMaCS Analysis
2.4 Diesel consumption
Rapid economic development, diesel subsidies and preference of road transportation for goods and passengers has led to dieselisation of Indian economy. With road being the preferred mode of transportation in India, the increasing demand for passenger and freight movement has in turn fuelled the growth of trucks and buses in India. Since most of the buses and trucks run on diesel, the increase in number of buses and trucks plying on the roads has significantly augmented the diesel consumption in India. This is evident from the fact that the consumption of High Speed Diesel Oil (HSDO) in India during the last decade has increased at an average annual rate of 5.9%. With relatively stagnant production of crude oil in the country, this increase in demand for oil will further increase our dependence on exports.
MM≤3.5 , 56.0% 3.5<MM ≤5, 1.4% 5<MM≤7 .5 , 5.5% 7.5<MM ≤12, 10.5% 12<MM≤ 16.2, 7.2% 16.2<M M≤25, 7.9% 25<MM, 11.6% MM≤3.5 , 56.7% 3.5<MM ≤5, 1.4% 5<MM≤7 .5 , 5.3% 7.5<MM ≤12, 10.6% 12<MM≤ 16.2, 6.7% 16.2<M M≤25, 7.1% 25<MM, 12.1% 2019-20 2024-25
Figure 2.18: Consumption of HSDO in India (in 000’ tonnes)
Source: Energy Statistics 2012, CSO, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, GoI
In 2011-12, India’s total diesel consumption stood at about 64.74 million tonnes. Road transport is the biggest diesel-consuming segment accounting for about 64 per cent of diesel consumption. Of the total diesel consumed by road transport, trucks and buses accounted for about 77 per cent of the fuel consumption, amounting to 31-32 million tonnes approx.
Figure 2.19: Diesel consumption mix in India
Source: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell
In absolute terms, the estimated consumption of diesel by buses and truck in India stood at around 7.77 million tonnes and 24.03 million tonnes, respectively. The detailed break-up fuel of consumption by various segments is given in the table below:
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 36,548 36,644 37,073 39,651 40,192 42,894 47,669 51,711 56,243 59,990 64,740 CAGR = 5.9% Power 8% Industry 10% Agriculture 12% Railways 6% Cars 15% Trucks 37% Buses 12% Roads 64% in 0 00 ’ to nn es
Table 2.3: Estimated diesel consumption by trucks and buses in India (2011-12)6
Vehicle
Segment Sales Vehicle Park
Distance Travelled p.a. per vehicle Fuel Efficiency (km/l) Diesel consumed per vehicle per annum (litres) Total diesel consumed per annum (in mn litres) Total diesel consumed per annum (in mn tonnes) Trucks 682,300 4,173,844 37,782 5.5 6,919 28,880 24.03 Buses 98,763 1,310,762 33,236 4.7 7,120 9,333 7.77 ALL TRUCKS and BUSES 781,063 5,484,606 36,696 5.3 6,967 38,213 31.79 LCV 460,831 2,907,678 16,866 15.5 1,092 3,174 2.64 M&HCV 320,232 2,576,929 59,071 4.3 13,597 35,039 29.15 ALL TRUCKS and BUSES 781,063 5,484,606 36,696 5.3 6,967 38,213 31.79
Source: PCRA, IMaCS Analysis Segmental break-up of diesel consumption indicates that more than 90 per cent of the diesel is consumed by M&HCV segment. This indicates the urgent need to improve diesel consumption in this segment by formulating stringent fuel efficiency norms for these segments. In most of the countries around the world, road transport is one of the major oil-consuming sectors. With limited oil reserves, the Governments around the world have taken cognisance of the situation, which is evident from the fact that more and more countries are proposing standards for regulating the Heavy-Duty vehicles.
6 Assumptions:
1. For trucks, distance travelled per annum per vehicle:- a. MM≤7.5 tonne – 20,000 km
b. 7.5<MM≤12 tonne – 50,000 km c. MM>12 tonne – 55,000 km
2. For buses, distance travelled per annum per vehicle:- a. MM≤7.5 tonne – 10,000 km
b. 7.5<MM≤12 tonne - 65,000 km c. 12<MM- 90,000 km
3 O
VERVIEW OF
G
LOBAL
F
UEL
C
ONSUMPTION
S
TANDARDS
3.1 Introduction
Light-duty vehicles (LDVs) have a long history of regulations with formulation of energy regulations in the United States in 1970s as a response to the global oil crisis. Since then, improvement in LDV fleet was relatively steady with improved technology being utilised to offset increase in vehicle weight and power. However, over the last one decade, the largest vehicle markets have resumed ambitious, mandatory fuel efficiency and emission standards for LDVs. More than 70 per cent of the global new-vehicle markets have mandatory fuel efficiency and emission standards for LDVs in effect. This has led to development and introduction of new energy-efficient technologies, smaller engines, lighter vehicles, and improved aerodynamics and tires.
Table 3.1: Fuel consumption and Emission standards for Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs)
Country/
Standard Measure Structure Targeted
Fleet Test Cycle Implementation
Region
Fuel consumption standards United
States Fuel mpg
Single standard for cars and size-based standards for light
trucks
New US CAFE Mandatory
Japan Fuel km/l Weight-based New JC08 Mandatory
China Fuel l/100-km Weight-based New NEDC Mandatory
Australia Fuel l/100-km Single standard New NEDC Voluntary
South
Korea Fuel km/l Engine-size based New
US EPA
City Mandatory
Taiwan Fuel km/l Engine-size based New US CAFE Mandatory
Emission standards
European
Union CO2 g/km Single standard New NEDC Voluntary
Canada
GHG
l/100-km Vehicle class-based In-use
and new US CAFE Voluntary (CO2, CH4,
N2O, HFCS)
California
GHG
g/mile Vehicle class-based New US CAFE Mandatory
(CO2, CH4,
In India, fuel efficiency norms for passenger cars are being framed by Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE), which are based on the Kerb weight of the vehicle and include mandatory labelling norms. However, strong opposition from the auto industry has led to delay in notification of these standards.
Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), including both heavy-duty trucks and buses, have a relatively brief history of regulations. Establishing fuel efficiency norms for HDVs is significantly more challenging due to their diversity in terms of vehicle size, configurations and usage patterns. Because of these challenges, HDV efficiency standards have just begun to be proposed and adopted in some of the major vehicle markets in the world. Japan was the first country, which introduced such standards in 2005, providing a roadmap for improvement in fuel efficiency of HDVs up to 2015. The US has finalized HDV fuel efficiency standards in 2011, which begins with model year 2014, and increases in stringency through 2018. Canada has aligned its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission standards with the US HDV fuel efficiency standards. Europe and China are in the process of designing HDV efficiency standards. With increasing focus on the fuel efficiency/GHG emissions of M&HCV across the globe, a number of countries are expected to introduce regulatory norms in the coming years.
Figure 3.1: HDV policy timelines across the globe
Note: Shaded and/or italics text represents the ICCTʼs estimate of regulatory action and timing
Source: ICCT- Anup Bandivadekar presentation on “Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Regulatory Developments around the World”- 3rd July, 2012
An important consideration in designing and implementation of norms for HDV vehicles is defining of duty cycle and testing conditions. Testing of HDV vehicles requires additional forethought given
Country/ Region Regulation Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Japan Fuel Economy Standard proposal Final rule Phase 2 implementation? Canada GHG/ Fuel efficiency Standard proposal and final rule? Phase 2 implementation? Mexico Fuel Efficiency Standard proposal? Phase 2 implementation? China Fuel Consumption Test procedure finalised Industry standard proposal Industry standard implemented Standard proposal? Final Rule? European Union GHG Impact Assessment California End-user purchase requirements Regulation implemented starting MY 2016 ?
Regulation implemented starting MY 2015 ?
Technical studies Test procedure
finalised? Policy implementation?
Requirements for new tractors and trailers (MY 2011+)
Additional requirements for existing tractors and trailers
(<MY 2010)
Additional requirements for existing tractors and reefers (<MY 2010) Phase 1 regulation implemented,
starting MY2015 United
States
GHG/ Fuel efficiency
Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 (Mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016) Phase 2
proposal and final rule?
the diversity of size and applications of the vehicles. Computer simulation of the whole truck (typically in combination with engine testing on a bench dynamometer) seems to be the favoured option by the Governments across the globe due to ease of implementation, accuracy of results and cost-effectiveness. China is planning to use chassis dynamometer testing for main HDV vehicle families and computer simulation for variants.
Table 3.2: Testing and simulation options for measurement of vehicle fuel economy
S No Type of test Parts simulated Cost of test Countries considering fuel consumption norms for HDVs
(1) On-road None Low None
(2) Computer
simulation All Low US, EU, Japan, China
(3) Engine dynamometer
Road and
non-engine components High US, EU, Japan (4) Chassis
dynamometer Road Very High China
Source: IEA – “Technology Roadmap - Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles”
3.2 International benchmarks for fuel consumption standards for Heavy Duty
Vehicles (HDVs)
3.2.1 United States
In September 2011, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced the First-ever federal regulations mandating improvements in fuel economy among heavy-duty commercial vehicles (HDVs). Each of the agencies have adopted complementary standards under their respective authorities, which together form a comprehensive HD National Program, beginning with model year 2014 and increasing in stringency through model year 2018, thereby providing a lead-time to all vehicle manufacturers. The norms set separate standards for engines and vehicles and ensure improvements in both. The federal regulation also sets separate standards for fuel consumption, CO2, N2O, CH4 and HFCs. However, the fuel consumption and emission standards are aligned. The agencies are also considering next phase of rules, as there are more opportunities to reduce GHG emissions and fuel usage by heavy-duty vehicles fleet for model years beyond 2018.
The principal performance metric for determining compliance with the NHTSA’s fuel consumption standards is the fuel consumption rate in gallons per 1,000 ton-miles (for vehicles) and gallons per horsepower-hour (for engines). For EPA’s carbon emissions standard, it is grams CO2 per tonne-mile
(vehicles) or per horsepower-hour (engines). The performance standards in both metrics are chosen to be consistent so that achievement of one implies achievement of other (with appropriate allowance made for alternative fuels).
The Federal Highway Administration categorises trucks by gross vehicle weight as shown in the table below:
Table 3.3: Vehicle Weight Classes Defined by US Department of Transportation
Class Description/examples
Empty weight range
Gross weight
range Typical fuel intensities
Tons Tons Gallons per thousand miles Gallons per thousand ton-miles 1c Passenger cars 1.2–2.5 <3 30–40 67
1t Small light-duty trucks 1.6–2.2 <3 40–50 58
2a Standard pickups, large SUVs 2.2–3 3–4.25 50 39
2b Large pickups, utility vans 2.5–3.2 4.25–5 67–100 39
3 Utility vans, minibuses 3.8–4.4 5–7 77–125 33
4 Delivery vans 3.8–4.4 7–8 83–140 24
5 Large delivery vans, bucket
trucks 9.2–10.4 8–9.75 83–166 26
6 School buses, large delivery
vans 5.8–7.2 9.75–13 83–200 20
7 City bus, refrigerated truck, fire
engine 5.8–7.2 13–16.5 125–250 18
8a Dump/refuse trucks, city buses,
fire engines 10–17 16.5–40 160–400 9
8b Large tractor trailers, bulk
tankers 11.6–17 16.5–40 133–250 7
Source : Winston Harrington and Alan Krupnick: “Improving Fuel Economy in Heavy-Duty Vehicles”
Vehicles in the category 2b to 8 are covered under the regulations. The vehicles are categorised such that different products in the same subcategory must meet the same standard. Broadly, HDVs were divided into three main regulatory categories:
1. Heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans (3/4 and 1 ton trucks and vans made primarily by Ford, GM and Chrysler)
2. Combination tractors (largest heavy-duty tractors used to pull trailers, i.e. 18 wheelers) 3. Vocational trucks (everything else, buses, refuse trucks, concrete mixers, ambulances…)
Trailers were not covered under these rules, due to the first-ever nature of this program and the limited experience of agencies in this space.
Vehicles in the category Heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans (Class 2b and 3) consist of pickup trucks and vans with a Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (GVWR) between 8,500 and 14,000 pounds. The
technologies that can be used to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions from this segment are very similar to the ones used for lighter pickup trucks and vans (Class 2a), which are subject to the GHG and fuel economy standards for light-duty vehicles. Vehicles in this category (Class 2b and 3) are treated in the same manner as the CAFE standards for light-duty vehicles.
Table 3.4: US CAFE Standards – For Light trucks
Model Year
Light Trucks "footprint": 41 sq ft (3.8 m2) or
smaller (e.g. Nissan Juke)
"footprint": 75 sq ft (7.0 m2) or bigger (e.g. Ford F-150)
CAFE EPA Window Sticker CAFE EPA Window Sticker
2012 30 23 22 17 2013 31 24 22.5 17 2014 32 24 23 18 2015 33 25 23.5 18 2016 34 26 24.5 19 2017 36 27 25 19 2018 37 28 25 19 2019 38 28 25 19 2020 39 29 25 19 2021 42 31 25 19 2022 44 33 26 20 2023 46 34 27 21 2024 48 36 28.5 22 2025 50 37 30 23
Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. "2017-2025 Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards: Supplemental"
For heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans, the agencies are setting corporate average standards similar to the approach taken for LDV. This approach takes into account both the inherently higher GHG emissions and fuel consumption of higher-capacity vehicles, and the importance of payload and towing capacity to the owners of these work trucks and vans. EPA has established standards for this segment in the form of a set of target standard curves, based on a “work factor” that combines a vehicle’s payload, towing capabilities, and whether or not it has 4-wheel drive. The EPA standards adopted for 2018 (including a separate standard to control air conditioning system leakage) represent an average per-vehicle reduction in GHG emissions of 17 per cent for diesel vehicles and 12 per cent for gasoline vehicles, compared to a common baseline.
Figure 3.2: EPA CO2 Target Standards and NHTSA Fuel Consumption Target Standards for Diesel HD Pickups and Vans7
Source: NHSTA EPA’s and NHTSA’s target standards are defined by the following formulae:
EPA CO2 Target (g/mile) = [a x WF] + b
NHTSA Fuel Consumption Target (gallons/100 miles) = [c x WF] + d
Where:
WF = Work Factor = [0.75 x (Payload Capacity + xwd)] + [0.25 x Towing Capacity] Payload Capacity = GVWR (lb) – Curb Weight (lb)
xwd = 500 lb if the vehicle is equipped with 4wd, otherwise equals 0 lb Towing Capacity = GCWR (lb) – GVWR (lb)
Coefficients a, b, c, and d are defined for each of the model years.
Combination trailers included largest heavy-duty tractors, which are used in intercity freight hauling. Tractor cabs are further classified by two weight classes and three roof heights. In addition, for class 8 category of vehicles, there are both “day cabs” and “sleeper cabs” at each roof height, making a total of nine tractor categories. These nine categories differ by weight and aerodynamic qualities, both of which are adversely affected by height. The vocational vehicle category includes the wide range of
7
