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Flexibility demand in long–term energy scenarios in the U.S. – First results of a case study for New England

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(1)

Felix Cebulla

1

, Hans-Christian Gils

1

, Mark Z. Jacobson

2 1

DLR, Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment

2

Stanford University, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

First results of a case study for New England

11

th

International Renewable Energy Storage Conference (IRES)

(2)

Overview ISO New England

Generation and capacities (2015)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Capacity Generation Ins talled  ca p ac it y  [GW] Annual  net  ge n e ra ti o n  [TWh]

Other

Biomass

PV

Wind

Hydro power

Nuclear

Natural gas

 Peak load 24 GW

 Connecticut: 6 GW

 Boston area: 5 GW

 Power demand 125 TWh/a

 Connecticut: 31 TWh/a

 Boston area: 25 TWh/a

 Generation heavily relying on natural

gas and nuclear power generation

 Natural gas: 54 TWh/a

 Nuclear: 32 TWh/a

 Transmission inter-connectors to

New York and Canada

Sources:

[1] U.S. EIA, “2015 Form EIA-860 Data - Schedule 3, ’Generator Data’ (Operable Units Only), [Dataset],” 2015.

[2] U.S. EIA, “2015 Form EIA-860 Data - Schedule 3, ’Net Generation by Energy Source’, [Dataset],” 2015.

(3)

Research questions and main assumptions (I)

1Existing hydro-power plants are included

Main assumptions

 Partial greenfield capacity expansion

1

and dispatch optimization

(least costs) with the REMix model (Renewable Energy Mix)

 Constraint forces at least 25% of a model regions electricity demand

is supplied by local resources

 Investment options into generation technologies and flexibility options

 On/offshore wind, PV, gas turbines

 H

2

storage, stationary Li-ion batteries, PHS (only pump/turbine

exp.), grid expansion

Research questions

 Is a highly renewable energy system (heat & power) for New England

feasible?

 What is the role of flexibility options?

(4)

Main assumptions (II)

Transmission grid

Modeling Scenario

Storage

Modeling Scenario

T

e

chnologies

Renewables

Modeling Scenario

(1) “Accupack 10 cellen side by side" by Accu4all Own work. Licensed under CC BYSA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

-https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Accupack_10_cellen_side_by_side.png#/media/File:Accupack_10_cellen_side_by_side.png

(2) C. Matke, W. Medjroubi, and D. Kleinhans, SciGRID - An Open Source Reference Model for the European Transmission Network (v0.2), www.scigrid.de, 2015 H2(power-H2-power)

Stationary Li-ion batteries Pumped hydro

 Charge/discharge efficiency  Self discharge rate

 Availability

 CAPEX converter

(charge/discharge) & storage  Lifetime (economic + technical)  O&M costs (fix/var.)

 H2in salt caverns & power reconversion

 Model endogenous capacity

expansion including expansion limits for all storage technologies

(1)

Wind on/offshore Photovoltaic Hydro power

 Efficiencies (part. temp.-dependent)  CAPEX

 Availability

 Lifetime (economic + technical)  O&M costs (fix/var.)

 Model endogenous capacity expansion

 Expansion limits based on resource assessment

 Unlimited curtailments

 Consideration of exiting hydro caps

AC

 DC approximation of 3 phase AC  CAPEX

 Grid losses

 Greenfield

 Existing based on SciGrid data (2)  Unrestricted capacity expansion

(5)

REMix (Renewable Energy Mix)

Input

RE Potentials Demand profiles

(Power, Heat, …)

Installed power 

plants OPEX, CAPEX Grid

Output

Technology commitment (utilization) Capacity expansion (storage, transmission lines, power plants)

Mathematical Optimization

Minimization of system costs Consideration of technical restrictions

(6)
(7)

Scenario definition

1. Reference scenario

(curtailment, existing grid)

+ Grid

exp.

+ Grid exp.

+ Storage

+ Grid exp.

+ Storage

+ cBEV

+ Grid exp.

+ Storage

+ cBEV

+ sector coupling

(power<>heat)

2. Scenario Flex +

3. Scenario Flex ++

4. Scenario Flex +++

5. Scenario Flex ++++

(8)

Maine

New H.

Verm.

0

50

100

150

Ref

Flex

 +

Flex

 ++

Po

w

er

 ge

n

er

at

io

n

 [TWh]

Conn.

RI

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

PV

Hydro

GT

WCMass

SEMass

Bost.

32% 73% 80%

Annual power generation

(9)

AC grid expansion (scenario Flex +)

16 GW

6 GW

Maine

New H.

Vermont

Con.

RI

WCMass

SEMass

Bost.

 Grid expansion to connect regions of large RE potential (SEMass) to regions of

high demand (Boston area)

 Capacity expansion: 39 GW, net import/export: 43 TWh

‐1.0 ‐0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1 8760

Norm. offshore wind gen. [‐]

Norm. grid utilization [‐]

r²= 0.99

(10)

Maine

New H.

Verm.

Conn.

RI

WCMass

SEMass

Bost.

Storage capacity

5 GW/TWh

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Discharged energy Power capacity

Po

w

er

 c

apacity

 [G

W]

Dischar

ge

d

 ener

gy

 [TWh]

PHS

Li‐Ion

H2

(11)

Conclusion & further research

First key results

 Power generation is dominated by offshore wind of the region

south-east Massachusetts

 Spatial balancing through grid allows increased RE integration by

41% (from 32% to 73%), substituting ~10 GW of gas turbines

 Further temporal balancing through power storage enables a RE

share as high as 80% and reduces curtailments

 Flex+ = 8.3 TWh/a (~6% of VRE generation, mainly offshore w.)

 Flex++ = 3.7 TWh/a (~3% of VRE generation, mainly offshore w.)

Ongoing research and open questions

 Coupling to the heat sector

 Test influence of inter-connector to New York and Canada

 Sensitivity analysis: cost variations, expansion limits

(12)

Questions?

Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Felix Cebulla

Felix.cebulla@dlr.de

+49 (0)7116862 420

References

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