Cross- river commuting in the Louisville region

Full text

(1)

April  2,  2012    

TO:   Kent  Lanum,  President  &  CEO   The  Ogle  Foundation  

 

FROM:  Paul  Coomes,  Ph.D.     Eric  Schansberg,  Ph.D.    

RE:   Cross-­‐river  commuting  in  the  Louisville  region    

 

As  requested,  we  have  examined  the  most  recent  data  on  cross-­‐river  commuting  in  the   Louisville  region  and  made  some  simple  estimates  of  the  potential  annual  toll  costs  for  

residents,  assuming  the  latest  toll  rates  proposed  by  the  bridges  authority.  The  primary  findings   are:  

 As  of  2010,  there  were  about  35,000  southern  Indiana  residents  commuting  to  work  in   Kentucky.  And  there  were  about  12,500  Kentucky  residents  of  the  region  commuting  to   work  in  southern  Indiana.  The  flows  have  been  fairly  constant  over  the  last  decade.    Jefferson  County  KY  is  by  far  the  most  important  cross-­‐river  work  destination  for  Indiana  

commuters,  accounting  for  94  percent  of  the  total  regional  southbound  flow.    

 A  significant  portion  of  the  current  cross-­‐river  commuters  will  continue  to  use  untolled   bridges  after  the  two  new  tolled  bridges  are  built.  The  Sherman  Minton  I-­‐64  bridge  and   the  highway  bridges  (Clark  Memorial  in  downtown  Louisville,  Milton  KY-­‐Madison  IN,  and   Brandenburg  KY-­‐Maukport  IN)  will  remain  the  most  convenient  ways  to  get  to  work  for   those  living  or  working  near  them.  Workers  in  Floyd  County  IN  who  will  have  a  close   choice  between  an  untolled  I-­‐64  bridge  or  a  tolled  I-­‐65  bridge  will  likely  take  the  free   alternative.  It  appears  that  the  primary  source  of  tolls  from  commuters  will  be  from   residents  of  Clark  and  Scott  counties  in  Indiana  working  in  Kentucky,  and  from  Kentucky   residents  working  in  Clark  and  Scott  counties.  Assuming  a  $1  toll  each  way,  we  estimate   that  Indiana  commuters  will  pay  $8.6  million,  and  Kentucky  commuters  $3.6  million,  per   year  in  tolls.  

 We  also  estimate  that  there  are  about  20,000  Kentucky  residents  living  in  the  eastern   corridors  of  the  Louisville  area,  who  work  in  downtown  Louisville.  These  commuters  will   benefit  from  the  enhanced  mobility  of  a  rebuilt  spaghetti  junction,  but  will  not  be  tolled.   Of  course,  tens  of  thousands  of  other  commuters  and  other  travelers  in  the  region  will   also  benefit  from  the  improved  transportation  infrastructure,  as  congestion  is  reduced,   travel  speeds  increased,  safety  is  improved,  and  economic  growth  is  enhanced.  

(2)

Geographic  Scope  

To  capture  the  significant  cross-­‐river  commuting  traffic  relevant  to  the  new  bridges  project,  we   have  analyzed  data  covering  the  entire  Louisville-­‐Elizabethtown-­‐Scottsburg,  KY-­‐IN  economic   area,  as  defined  by  the  US  Bureau  of  Economic  Analysis.  The  U.S.  Bureau  of  Economic  Analysis   assigns  every  county  in  the  country  to  an  economic  area.  Each  economic  area  is  meant  to   define  the  relevant  regional  market  surrounding  a  metropolitan  or  micropolitan  statistical  area.   They  consist  of  one  or  more  economic  nodes  -­‐  metropolitan  or  micropolitan  statistical  areas   that  serve  as  regional  centers  of  economic  activity  -­‐  and  the  surrounding  counties  that  are   economically  related  to  the  nodes.  The  economic  areas  are  based  on  commuting  data  from  the   2000  decennial  population  census  and  on  newspaper  circulation  data  from  the  Audit  Bureau  of   Circulations,  an  industry  trade  association  that  maintains  the  leading  electronic  database  of   audited-­‐circulation  information.  The  Louisville  Economic  Area  is  bordered  by  economic  areas   centered  on  Nashville,  Lexington,  Cincinnati,  Indianapolis,  and  Evansville.  

(3)

The  Louisville  Economic  Area  consists   of  the  13  county  Louisville  

metropolitan  statistical  area  (MSA),   the  Elizabethtown  KY  MSA,  the   Campbellsville  KY  micropolitan  area,   the  Madison  and  Scottsburg  

micropolitan  areas  in  Indiana,  and   several  largely  rural  counties  at  the   edges.    

 

We  have  included  in  the  table  another   geographic  concept  often  shown  in   statistical  compilations  –  the   Combined  Statistical  Area.  This  is   simply  the  aggregate  of  the  three   adjacent  metropolitan  and   micropolitan  areas.  

 

Louisville  is  in  the  center  of  the   region,  which  is  roughly  divided  into   quadrants  by  the  interstate  highways   (I-­‐64,  I-­‐65)  passing  through  it.  

 

One  can  see  from  the  table  that  the   economic  area  has  about  1.6  million   residents,  of  which  20  percent  live  in   Indiana.  Eighty  percent  of  area   residents  live  in  the  Louisville  MSA,   and  46  percent  live  in  Jefferson   County  KY.  Clark  County  IN  accounts   for  7  percent  of  the  area  population,   and  Floyd  County  IN  accounts  for  5   percent.  We  will  see  in  the  

commuting  data  discussed  next  that   the  outlying  more  rural  areas  do  not   generate  much  cross-­‐river  traffic,  and   thus  are  not  the  source  of  much   potential  toll  revenue.  

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

(4)

Commuting  Patterns,  2002  to  2010  

The  publicly  available  estimates  of  commuting  are  produced  by  the  US  Census  Bureau.  The   chart  summarizes  these  estimates  for  the  last  nine  years,  featuring  residents  commuting  to   their  primary  jobs  among  the  25  counties  of  the  Louisville  KY-­‐IN  Economic  Area.  One  can  see   that  almost  three  times  the  number  of  Indiana  residents  are  commuting  to  work  in  Kentucky   (35,000)  as  there  are  Kentucky  residents  commuting  to  work  in  Indiana  (12,500).  One  can  also   see  that  the  commuting  flows  have  been  relatively  constant  over  the  decade.  

 

The  data  source  for  the  2002  to  2010  commuting  estimates  shown  above,  the  US  Census   Bureau’s  Longitudinal  Employment-­‐Household  Dynamics  (LEHD)  program,  is  derived  from   employers’  unemployment  insurance  records  (by  place  of  work),  Social  Security  records  (by   place  of  residence),  and  other  federal  administrative  databases.  It  includes  all  workers  except   federal  civilian  employees.  For  comparison  to  the  2000  Census,  we  have  queried  the  database   for  only  ‘primary  jobs’,  that  is,  the  person’s  main  job  in  the  case  that  they  moonlight.  Primary   jobs  account  for  94  percent  of  all  jobs,  so  the  actual  amount  of  cross-­‐river  commuting  is  a  bit   higher  than  reported  here.  

  ! "#!!! $!#!!! $"#!!! %!#!!! %"#!!! &!#!!! &"#!!! '!#!!! %!!% %!!& %!!' %!!" %!!( %!!) %!!* %!!+ %!$! !"##$%&'()*"+,(-.(/"$-,0-**& 12*-345&%6%"+. 178"%%,5$'9:(;< 1=>( 28"."#-8(?'&4 @'"#(=.A-4.4(8"$.%-&,(%"(;&.%$8BC(8"$.%-&, @'"#(;&.%$8BC(8"$.%-&,(%"((=.A-4.4(8"$.%-&, ,-./01234,35167.738./19.#3:-6;<=.><69?3@AB?-CA16= DE-.71F-?>3GC69A<073B/-;/9A#3.7<6;3H63IF13J9B3<6=1/K901L M971>3-63N.1/<173 K-/3190F3-K3=F13%"30-.6=<173<63=F13:-.<7O<??13PQ DRS3@0-6-A<03T/19U3@7=<A9=173/1K1/3=-3/17<>16=730-AA.=<6;3=-3=F1</3B/<A9/C3V-MU

(5)

The  number  of  cross-­‐river  commuters  revealed  by  the  LEHD  data  in  2010  is  close  to,  but  lower   than,  that  revealed  by  the  2000  Census.  The  last  Census  data  on  commuting  refers  only  to   primary  jobs,  but  does  include  federal  civilian  employees.  This  partly  accounts  for  the  higher   commuter  flows  in  2000,  as  compared  to  the  LEHD  estimates  for  2002  to  2010.  There  are  about   16,500  federal  civilian  employees  in  the  Louisville  economic  area,  nearly  two  percent  of  all  jobs.    

The  two  data  sets  cannot  be  completely  reconciled,  as  the  LEHD  program  did  not  exist  in  2000.   Moreover,  there  are  various  technical  differences  and  statistical  tolerances  specific  to  both   programs.  These  are  the  most  accurate  and  current  data  available,  however,  and  present  a   good  picture  of  commuter  activity  over  the  past  decade.    

 

The  next  chart  shows  total  employment  in  the  Louisville-­‐Elizabethtown-­‐Scottsburg  KY-­‐IN   economic  area  over  the  past  two  decades  (2010  estimates  will  be  released  in  about  a  month).  

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

'8","(-8&@9+$

(6)

This  includes  all  workers,  including  self-­‐employed,  in  all  industries.  Note  that  the  last  recession   erased  all  the  net  job  growth  since  2000,  so  that  the  decade  ended  with  about  the  same   number  of  jobs  as  when  it  began.  This  is  consistent  with  the  pattern  for  cross-­‐river  commuters.   To  gain  insight  on  the  likely  usage  of  the  proposed  new  bridges,  we  need  to  zoom  in  further  on   the  commuting  data.  For  example,  residents  of  Carroll  County  KY  working  in  southern  Indiana   are  most  likely  to  use  the  Madison  IN  bridge,  not  one  in  Louisville.  Similarly,  residents  of  New   Albany  IN  working  in  Kentucky  are  most  likely  to  use  the  untolled  Sherman  Minton  bridge,  not   one  of  the  two  new  tolled  bridges.  The  next  two  tables  provide  some  detail  on  the  county  to   county  commuting  patterns.  

 

One  can  see  in  the  first  detailed  table  that  Jefferson  County  KY  dominates  as  a  destination  for   Indiana  commuters  to  Kentucky.  Carroll  County  is  the  second  most  popular  destination,  but   these  commuters  have  little  bearing  on  the  Louisville  bridges  project,  nor  do  commuters  to   Trimble  County  –  they  will  use  the  Madison  IN  bridge.  Commuters  to  Jefferson,  Oldham,  Bullitt,   and  Shelby  counties  will  provide  significant  toll  revenues  as  they  use  the  new  bridges.  These   four  counties  account  for  96  percent  of  the  total  north  to  south  cross-­‐river  commuters.  (There  

!"#$%&'"(')"*+ ,--, ,--. ,--/ ,--0 ,--1 ,--2 ,--3 ,--4 ,-5-!"##$%%&'(")%*+&,- ./. 01/ .23 0.1 0.4 03/ 056 031 621 '788(##&'(")%*+&,- 4/5 392 303 395 344 2.6 306 4/4 44. :78;$)&'(")%*+&,- .4/ .53 .2/ .41 .3. 0.. 044 03. 091 :<)8*&'(")%*+&,- 69 6/ 96 6/ 95 03 63 06 64 =<>><8?()&'(")%*+&,- 6.+3/. 6.+639 6.+62. 05+41. 02+603 60+.11 60+60/ 60+//5 60+411 @<7;<&'(")%*+&,- ... .9. 59 54 ..9 /2 .65 .93 .42 A<#?()&'(")%*+&,- 65 91 26 30 39 20 /. 56 /. B#;C7D&'(")%*+&,- 911 6/3 629 669 055 942 93. 92/ 996 EC<#F*&'(")%*+&,- .5. 0.6 .5/ 010 .44 0.1 ./9 0./ .52 EG<)H<8&'(")%*+&,- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I7*#(8&'(")%*+&,- 1 . 1 0 1 . . 1 0 I8$DF#<&'(")%*+&,- 52 ..3 .44 .49 .4/ .05 .56 633 ./6 E"D+&.0&,-&H(")%$<? 66+9/. 66+641 66+0// 6.+652 05+.53 69+029 69+459 64+6.5 69+245 6789:7$%8'"(';"#%<7*$'=$:9>$>'!"#$%978'?"*+9$@'9$'A7((7*8"$'!"#$%&'BC'>$:'D7>*E&'BC'!"#$%978F' G*9H>*&'A"E8'I$J&

(7)

were  no  commuters  from  Indiana  reported  for  six  Kentucky  counties  in  the  Louisville  economic   area  –  Adair,  Breckinridge,  Grayson,  Green,  Marion  –  and  hence  no  entries  in  the  table.)  

 

Clark,  Floyd  and  Harrison  counties  are  the  most  important  Indiana  work  destinations  for  area   residents  of  Kentucky.  Clark  County  accounts  for  about  57  percent  of  the  south  to  north  cross-­‐ river  commuter  traffic.  Kentucky  commuters  to  Jefferson  County  IN  would  most  likely  use  the   bridge  at  Madison,  not  one  in  Louisville.  Many,  if  not  most,  Kentucky  commuters  to  Floyd,   Harrison,  Washington  and  Crawford  counties  would  use  the  untolled  Sherman-­‐Minton  bridge,     not  one  of  the  two  new  tolled  bridges.  Hence,  the  Kentucky  residents  likely  to  pay  tolls  would   be  those  commuting  to  Clark  and  Scott  counties,  about  58  percent  of  the  total  northern  flow.      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

(8)

 

Geographic  Incidence  of  the  Proposed  Tolls  

Making  a  few  simple  assumptions,  and  using  just  the  county  to  county  flows  we  can  make  a   crude  estimate  of  the  annual  toll  revenues  that  would  be  generated  from  these  cross-­‐river   commuters.  We  assume  that  commuters  will  use  the  nearest  bridge,  and  thus  those  

commuting,  say,  from  Crawford,  Floyd,  Harrison  and  Washington  counties  in  Indiana  will  use   the  Sherman  Minton  I-­‐64  bridge,  not  one  of  the  tolled  bridges.  Similarly,  Kentucky  residents   commuting  to  jobs  in  those  westernmost  Indiana  counties  of  the  region  would  use  the  Sherman   Minton  bridge.  Moreover,  there  are  other  Ohio  River  bridges  at  Madison  IN  and  Brandenburg   KY.  These  will  continue  to  handle  most  of  the  cross-­‐river  traffic  of  commuters  living  in  Jefferson   County  IN,  Meade  County  KY  and  Trimble  County  KY,  as  well  as  some  workers  at  Fort  Knox  who   live  in  southern  Indiana.    

 

Thus,  the  primary  flows  expected  to  be  tolled  are  residents  of  Clark  and  Scott  counties  in   Indiana  who  work  in  Kentucky,  and  Kentucky  residents  who  work  in  Clark  and  Scott  Counties.   This  implies  there  would  be  about  17,000  Indiana  residents,  and  7,000  Kentucky  residents   paying  tolls  to  cross  the  Ohio  River  on  their  way  to  and  from  work.    

 

Assume  further  that  each  commuter  makes  500  trips  per  year  (50  work  weeks  times  five  days  a   week  times  two  bridge  crossings  a  day),  and  that  the  toll  rate  is  $1.00.  This  implies  that  Indiana   resident  commuters  would  pay  $8.6  million  per  year  in  tolls,  while  Kentucky  resident  

commuters  would  pay  $3.6  million.  Obviously,  the  total  toll  revenues  would  be  significantly   greater  if  one  accounted  for  all  the  non-­‐work  related  personal  trips,  such  as  school,  shopping,   recreation,  church,  family  visits,  etc.  Moreover,  there  is  certainly  a  large  volume  of  area   business  traffic  over  the  Ohio  River,  such  as  wholesale  distributors,  florists,  electricians,  

plumbers,  lawyers,  accounts,  consultants.  However,  we  know  of  no  source  of  data  on  which  to   base  more  comprehensive  estimates1.  

                                                                                                                         

1  A  traffic  study  by  Wilbur  Smith  Associates,  November  2007,  counted  daily  river  crossings  at  the  three  Louisville   bridges  (I-­‐64,  I-­‐65,  and  US-­‐31).  They  counted  a  total  of  200,441  total  crossings  by  passenger  cars  and  light   trucks,  with  separate  counts  for  northbound  and  southbound  traffic.  This  is  about  twice  the  traffic  implied  by   our  cross-­‐river  commuting  data.  However,  we  do  not  know  how  much  of  the  difference  is  accounted  for  by   local  business  and  discretionary  trips  versus  pass-­‐through  interstate  travelers.  

(9)

We  can  zoom  in  tighter  to  gain  insight  on  those  commuters  who  will  have  a  choice  between  a   shorter  commute  over  a  tolled  bridge  versus  a  bit  longer  commute  over  a  free  bridge.  A  good   example  is  a  northeastern  Floyd  County  IN  resident  working  in  eastern  Jefferson  County  KY.  The   county  to  county  commuting  patterns  data  shown  above  is  also  available  at  the  zip  code  level.   The  next  table  highlights  the  top  35  zip  codes  of  work  for  the  main  zip  codes  of  residence  in   Floyd  County.  These  workplace  destinations  account  for  about  80  percent  of  all  destinations  for   Floyd  County  residents.  Looking  through  the  primary  destinations  it  is  clear  that  most  Floyd   County  residents  work  on  the  west  side  of  Interstate  65,  and  are  thus  likely  to  take  the  Sherman  

!"#$%&'(&)%*+,%-$% .%/&0"1#-23& 4. -'567%5-& 8"'2,&9':-62 ;%'5<%6'/-3& 4. ;5%%-=+""%3& 4. 8"'2,& 9':-623&4. >'5?@"#$%&A%*6+-#6+'- !"#$%&'() !"#$%&''* !"#$%&'++ !"#$%&'+% ,-./01$0-023

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

(10)

Minton  bridge.  Only  12  percent  of  the  commuters  shown  in  the  table  work  commute  to  an   eastern  or  southeastern  Jefferson  County  KY  workplace,  and  this  is  probably  a  generous   calculation  since  it  includes  GE’s  Appliance  Park,  

which  is  in  the  central  part  of  Jefferson  County.      

This  result  is  unsurprising.  People  choose  their  place   of  residence  partially  based  on  their  current  or  likely   workplace.  People  also  naturally  look  for  work  close   to  where  they  live.  By  far  the  most  important  

workplace  destination  for  New  Albany  residents  is  zip   code  47150  –  New  Albany.  Workers  will  commute   long  distances  only  for  very  high  paying  jobs.  We   know,  for  example,  that  downtown  Louisville  draws   workers  from  all  over  the  region.  So  do  a  few  major   industrial  areas,  like  Bluegrass  Industrial  Park,  the   Ford  and  GE  plants,  and  health  care  complexes.    

Finally,  we  provide  a  first  estimate  of  the  number  of   Kentucky  commuters  expected  to  directly  benefit   from  the  new  (untolled)  spaghetti  junction.  That  is,   they  are  likely  to  commute  by  interstate  from  the   eastern  portion  of  the  region  to  work  downtown.   They  will  pass  through  the  interstate  interchange,  but   not  cross  the  river  and  therefore  not  pay  a  toll.    We   queried  the  LEHD  commuter  database  to  determine   the  zip  codes  of  residence  for  all  downtown  workers   (zip  code  40202).  Then  we  sorted  the  result  to   determine  which  zip  codes  lie  along  the  two  main   eastern  interstate  corridors,  I-­‐64  and  I-­‐71.  We   assumed  that  residents  living  just  east  of  downtown   will  use  surface  streets  and  not  the  interstate.  One   can  see  that  at  least  20,000  Kentucky  commuters   stand  to  benefit  from  the  improved  mobility  resulting   from  the  rebuild  of  spaghetti  junction.  Some  of  these   commuters  from  the  east  to  downtown  will  use  River   Road,  Brownsboro  Road,  Westport  Road,  and  other  

surface  roads,  so  we  cannot  assume  they  would  all  use  I-­‐71  or  I-­‐64  into  downtown.  However,   there  are  many  other  cross-­‐town  commuters  that  use  spaghetti  junction,  such  as  eastern  

!"#$%&'($&)$*(+"'(,-( .&/0(/+ !"#$$ %&''&()*+,*-+.)*/,0 #123# !"#"3 4,5.67,,0&-) #1"89 !"#!2 :*;<=7>.67+*( 21$2? !"##" %&''&()*+,*-+.+*(,0 21@8@ !"#$2 A7(=),*-+.B=5.7+=.CD#89 21@82 !"#!9 E*;*.F<&;=) 218?2 !"### GHI**( 21?!8 !"##? J+K0*(7L& 21#"@ !""9$ E(*)M&K, @$3 !""2! N(&),-**= @?$ !""!3 6*/+,.O7)0<+L,*+ 3#2 !"#!# O&),M*(,.B*7= 8?9 !""?2 P7.Q(7+L& 9@$ !"#!? 6<==;&,*-+ 983 !""89 40&;R>S<;;& 9"2 !""32 4M&+K&(.N*/+,> !38 !""#8 Q*)0&+ ?!@ !""83 4<IM)*+S<;;& 23# !""#? %&''&()*+.N*/+,>.&7), 2!? !""98 E&&-&&.T7;;&> 2#8 !""2$ UI<+&+K& 99 !""## 40&;R>S<;;&.)*/,0 !? !""8@ 4I<,0'<&;= ?8 !""!2 6*KV<+LR<(= ?? !""99 G;=07I.N*/+,>.+*(,0 ?# !"""? 40&;R>S<;;&.&7), #3 !""9" :&+(>.N*/+,> #" !""!9 P7V&.F*(&), 23 !""2" A/KV+&( 29 !""3" :&+(>.N*/+,> 3 !""#9 Q;&+S<&- ? W*,7; #"1?88 1&.,2&.,$3&4"+5"66($7&/0(/+$3"5",8$",$29($ :;+2(/,$%&//"'&/ 4*/(K&X.Y4.N&+)/).A/(&7/1.P*+L<,/=<+7;. UIM;*>I&+,D:*/)&0*;=.Z>+7I<K)1.7).[/&(<&=. /)<+L.,0&.G+.,0&.67M.,**;1.=*-+,*-+.\<M.K*=&. !"#"#1.'*(.#"2".K*II/,&().,*.M(<I7(>.]*R)5

(11)

Louisville  residents  working  in  west  Louisville  and  central  Louisville,  as  well  as  the  reverse  –   central  and  western  Louisville  residents  working  in  eastern  Louisville.    

Figure

Updating...

References

Updating...

Related subjects :