Measurement of
National Power
:
Definitions, Functions, Measurement
(Paperback)Email:h-zarghani@um.ac.ir • Paperback: 120 pages
• Publisher: LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing (November 17, 2010) • Language: English
• ISBN-10: 3843371911 • ISBN-13: 978-3843371919
For my mother and father,
who would have liked to have seen this day so much, and for my wife.
I also dedicate this book to:
V
Contents:
List of Tables……….. IV List of Figures………. V List of Maps………. V Preface……….. VI U Chapter OneNational Power, Definitions, Notions, Functions……… 1
U
Chapter Two
A Historical Approach at power-creating factors……… 16
U
Chapter Three
Sources and Factors of national power……… 27
U
Chapter Four
Approaches to Measuring of national power………. 48
U
Chapter Five
Research Methodology and Stages of Model Presentation………. 74
U
Chapter Six
Measuring National Power of countries………. 81 Conclusion……….. 101 Refrences……… 102
V
Illustrations
Tables:
Table 1. Capability of the players……… 14
Table2: Different approaches toward hegemony………. 17
Table 3: Attempts for creating military Hegemony………. 18
Table 4: The quality factors and variables of national power………. 41
Table 5: conceptual and operational variables of national power……… 45
Table6 : Single Variable Approaches to Evaluating National Power……….. 55
Table 7:Ranking state power……… 60
Table 8: Number and Type of Variables Used in Conceptual Integrated Models…… 65
Table 9 : Simple Lineal Model to Measuring National Power……… 80
Table 10: variables of Scientific and Technological factor……… 82
Table 11:Top ten powers in the Scientific and Technological factor………. 83
Table 12: variables of Economical factor……….. 84
Table 13 :Top ten powers in the Economical factor……… 84
Table 14: variables of Social factor……….. 85
Table 15:Top ten powers in the Social factor………. 86
Table 16: variables of Territorial factor……… 87
Table 17:Top ten powers in the Territorial factor……….. 87
Table 18: variables of Cultural factor………... 88
Table 19:Top ten powers in the Cultural factor……….. 89
Table 20: variables of the Political factor………. 90
Table 21:Top ten powers in the Political factor……….. 90
Table 22: variables of the Trans-National factor……….. 92
Table 23:Top ten powers in the Trans-National factor……….. 92
Table 24: variables of the Astro-space factor……….. 93
Table 25:Top ten powers in the Astro-space factor………... 94
Table 26: variables of the Military factor……… 95
Figures:
Figure 1: Evaluation of input and output of power ……….. 8
Figure 2. The relationship between national power, interests, and strategy………. 11
Figure 3: The relationship between Geopolitical weight, National power, and Domain………. 12
Figure 4. Change in the Esteem of the players………. 20
Figure 5: Leading Sectors, Underlying Hegemonic Control in History……… 26
Figure 6: Repetition of the national power variables in 28 variant theories………. 40
Figure 7 : Model with nine factors of national power……… 45
Figure 8: The Linear relationship between factors of power………. 48
Figure 9: A Revised View of National Power……… 64
Figure 10 : Model with nine factors of national power……….. 69
Figure 11 : Top ten powers in the all factors (National Power)……….. 97
Figure 12 :Global Geopolitical structure………. 99
Maps :
Map 1 : Top ten powers in the Scientific and Technological factor……….. 83Map 2: Top ten powers in the Economical factor………... 85
Map 3: Top ten powers in the Social factor………... 86
Map 4: Top ten powers in the Territorial factor……… 88
Map 5: Top ten powers in the Cultural factor………. 89
Map 6: Top ten powers in the the Political factor………. 91
Map 7: Top ten powers in the Trans-National factor……….. 93
Map 8: Top ten powers in the Astro-space factor……….. 94
Map 9: Top ten powers in the Military factor………. 96
Preface:
Evaluating and measuring countries' national power to determine the country's status in the Global Geo-political System and comparing countries' powers has always been one of the main concerns of political geographers, scientists of political science and international relations. From this aspect, many specialists attempted many efforts to evaluate national power by means of creating methods and single variable and multi-variable models, whereas all of them have ranked many countries from a multi-variable or limited aspect but it has never reflected the countries extensive and complete power. In this research, based on the assessment of previous models for the evaluation of national power, a new model is presented to measure national power; it is much better than previous models based on working method, number and integration of indexes and variables affecting national power. Paying attention to all the aspects of national power (in the form of the nine factors include: Economical, Political, Military, Transnational, Astro-space ,Territorial, Social, Scientific and technological and Cultural), paying attention to the usage of various variants, variety in the form of 87 factors, stressing the usage of new and strategically compatible variants to the current time are some of the benefits of this model. Also using the Delphi method and referring to the opinions of experts about determining the role and importance of variables affecting national power, the option of drawing out the global power structure… are some the other advantages that this model has compared to previous ones. This book has seven chapter that includes:
Chapter One: National Power, Definitions, Notions, Functions Chapter Two: A Historical Approach at power-creating factors Chapter Three, Sources and Factors of national power
Chapter Four: Approaches to Measuring of national power
Chapter Five: Research Methodology and Stages of Model Presentation Chapter Six: Measuring National Power of countries
Chapter One:
National Power:
Definitions, Notions, Functions
The concept of “power” is the center of all the analyses in the political world and many scholars such as Morgentau consider power the foundation of international policies and are of the conviction that all policies are, in fact, attempts to gain power.0F
1 Power and its
presence in the political world is so important that some people like Wolves compare it to the “role of money” in economic relations and believe that power does the same thing in the international world that money does in the international economy.1F
2 Others regard power as a
sun in the solar system and state that all manifestations and aspects of foreign policy and international relations between the countries turn around power. This is because countries are always trying to gain power and power is vital for their survival. In other words, all countries fight for gaining power, maintaining power, or displaying power.2F
3 On this basis,
one important issue in international relations is the power of political units particularly that
1-Divid. Jablonsky, National Power, parameters,27 ( spring 1997)p. 34
2-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan publication, 2003,p.169 3 -Abdolrahman Alam. Principles of political science, Tehran, Nee publication, 1999 .p. 188
of countries which is referred to as national power. In fact, like the notion of power, different viewpoints exist about definitions, examples, and component of national power. Definition and concept of national power:
National power, as a geopolitical concept, reflects the mass characteristics of a nation which is the sum of their capabilities and potentials.3F
1 When we look at power in the framework of
a society or a nation, general power is considered by the sum of the society’s capabilities. Therefore, all the people who have formed a nation and have gained political organization in the form of a country have a power that is gained from the sum of their capabilities and is thus considered their national power. This power is the mathematical sum of the positive and negative elements of power and foundations of that country that is active and is comprehended when compared with other nations’ and countries. There are different definitions of national power but four have been presented here:
“National power consists of the materialistic and spiritual capabilities that exist in one geographical and political unit called a country or a government”. 4F
2
In his book titled “Comprehensive national power”, Shuofeng Huang, the well-known Chinese scholar, states that national power consists of perfect power and international influence of a nation both in materialistic aspects and spiritual aspects that a nation uses in order to survive and develop.5F
3
National power means: “capability, potential, and capacity of a nation and a country for using its material and spiritual resources in order to impose national determination and gain national interests and goals”. 6F
4
National power can be defined simply as a country’s capacity to pursue strategic goals through purposeful action. This view of national power suggests two distinct but related dimensions of capacity: an external dimension, which consists of a nation’s capacity to affect the global environment through its economic, political, and
1-Mohammad Reza. Hafeznia,. et al, “analysis of geographical basics of national power of Islamic Republic of Iran” Journal of geographical science , Tarbiat Moalem University Press, 2003. p. 51.
2-Ali asgar. kazemi, Role of power in society and international relations,Tehran, Goms publication,1994,p.16
3-Huang Shuofeng, Comprehensive National Power Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Press, 1992, p. 102
military potential, and an internal dimension, which consists of a nation’s capacity to transform the resources of its society into “actionable knowledge” that produces the best civilian and military technologies possible. Any effort at creating a useful national power profile must incorporate variables that capture these two dimensions.
7F 1
Dimensions and levels of national power:
National power has two aspects: aspect of influence and aspect of force. Aspect of influence is more subjective (although it has objective nature as well) and countries and governments try to apply their power by imposing their influence on others and by fulfilling their determination. Aspect of force is more objective and depends on military power and punishment tools which are used by governments in the next steps and when the aspect of influence does not prove effective. 8F
2
National power of countries has different levels and degrees. Based on the space and the effectiveness power of the phenomena and the processes outside a country, levels of power can be divided as follows:
1- Extra-global power is a power that has an influence beyond the globe and the space between the planets.
1. National power with global effect is a power that can affect global processes whether they have one aspect or multiple aspects, such as superpower like the US or former Soviet Union.
2. National power with regional effect is a power that can be manifested in a geopolitical region, such as India in South Asia.
3. National power with local effect is a power that can only affect its neighbors, such as Saudi Arabia in Arabic peninsula .
4. National power with domestic effect is a power that is manifested inside the borders of a country such as Nepal that does not have any hegemony beyond its borders.
1-Ashley J. Tellis ,et al. Measuring National Power in the Postindustrial Age, Rand Crop.2000.p. 45 2-Jalil. roshandel, national security and international system ,Tehran, Samt Press, 1995,p.23
5. Weakened national power that does not have total power even within its borders such
as Somalia and Afghanistan. 9F 1
Historically, national power is linked with military capacity and capabilities, because wars have always had significant effects on international relations and winning or losing a war has been a factor for evaluating the power of countries. However, we cannot just rely on a single factor in order to determine the national power of a country. For instance, the huge expansion of Brazil, high population of Pakistan, industrial production of Belgium, and etc. are not considered the basis of evaluating national power. The best evidence is that none of the aforementioned counties is a first-class power.10F
2 In addition, national power has two
aspects; one is objective and active and the other one is subjective and potential. Governments try to turn their potential capacities into active ones.
Functions of national power:
On the whole, power has different functions the main axis of which is the provision of the conditions for fulfilling the goals and interests of individuals and groups. Power is the factor of life and survival, and it is therefore favored by individuals, groups, and governments. Any creature devoid of power is doomed to die and thus the innate need for continuance of life forces human being to gain power. It can be said that humanity, intentionally or unintentionally, directly or indirectly, is busy gaining power and maintaining it. This reality expresses the natural and innate tendency of people. On this basis, national power has different functions and applications. Some of the most important functional capabilities of national power from the viewpoint of scholars include:
• The most important function of national power of countries is satisfying national interests, and maintaining and expanding them.
11F 3
• Using materialistic and spiritual resources of the country with the aim of imposing national determination and gaining the goals and national interests.12F
4
• Guaranteeing satisfaction of the needs and wishes of a nation or a country
1-Mohammad Reza . Hafeznia. Principles and concepts of geopolitics , Papoly publication, 2006,p. 230 2-Jablonsky. op. cit., p.35
3-roshandel. op. cit ,p.86 4-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 56
• Factor of survival and development of a nation and country.13F
• Following functional goals by intentional measures through affecting international environment (in the international aspect) and turning the resources of the society into “applicable science” that produces the best military and non-military technology (in the domestic aspect). 14F
2
As it was mentioned before, the most significant application of national power is satisfying and guaranteeing national goals and interests of the countries. National aims and interests of countries are different but the majority of which include:
1. Satisfying national security and reducing and controlling the threats 2. Increasing national power as a goal
3. Development and national welfare
4. Protecting the existence of a nation and a country
5. National international rights or the rights that a nation or a country has beyond its borders
6. National and international prestige of a country
7. National independence and preventing its being ruled by other countries
8. International peace and stability with the motivation of satisfying national interests and needs
9. Maintaining the borders of the countries and preventing its division
10. Expanding the influence and affecting different economic, cultural, ideological, political aspects
11. Satisfying national needs within the borders through foreign facilities
12. Removing the obstacles of free imposing of national determination within the borders and outside the borders
13. Seeking power and hegemony which is usually the wish of some countries 14. Expanding the lands
15. Reducing the influence of other governments in the internal affairs 16. Supporting foreign policy of a country
1-Shuofeng. op. cit , p.102 2-Tellis . et al. op. cit , p.56
17. Maintaining the values of life, and national identity and pride 18. Protecting national power and preventing national embarrassment
Although the aforementioned list is among the national goals and interests of countries, achieving them or their relevance depends of the county’s conditions, national power, and the strategies pursued by political leaders.15F
1
The factor behind national power is not just the tools of achieving national interests and goals, although such a role is expected. On the other hand, national power can be manifested as a national goal as well. Knowing that national power is the most important and fundamental way of maintaining their existence and fulfilling their interests and goals, all countries attempt to strengthen this tool and avoid its weakening. Strengthening national power increases the chances of achieving national goals and weakening it will result in failure in achieving absolute rights. In addition, countries use power to achieve their national interests and security and try to use it to protect and develop their national interests. In addition to these domestic and foreign goals, governments sometimes use their power to maintain their power and lengthen their rule. They usually use power against their own people in order to guarantee their rule and turn their friendly relation with their nation into one filled with enmity. They use levers of power such as law, army, police, justice system, and others to hurt their own people to give it an unreasonable legitimacy.
On the whole, national power is used by the governments in two domains: 1. Domestic domain
2. Foreign domain
In the domestic domain, power is used to legislate, regulate social affairs, implement the law and social justice, and satisfy public security through related organized organizations such as legislative, judicial, security, military, advertisement organizations and etc. in the foreign domain, national power is used to protect national interests, to fulfill the national needs through foreign approaches, satisfy national security, reduce foreign threats, enhance national prestige, and etc. 16F
2
1-Mohammad Reza . Hafeznia. The Principles of SocioPolitical studies ,Qom press , 2000.p. 248 2-Hafeznia. (2003) , op. cit, P. 25
In fact nations have different wishes, hopes, and interests and fulfilling such wishes depends on the level and nature of national power particularly in comparison with other countries. If a country enjoys a high level of national power, it can fulfill its wishes without facing any obstacles. Some countries not only have access to such a power in the globe and on earth, but also beyond the borders of earth. Some countries are also so weak that they cannot fulfill their basic needs. Therefore, it can be said that there is a direct relationship between the national power of a country and its role in the international relations. In other words, the type of foreign policy of a country, which guarantees its role in the international relations, is affected by the condition of national power of that country. 17F
1 Undoubtedly, such
superpowers as Russia and the US have a different role in comparison to a mini-power like Bahrain. In the economic domain, the role of such superpowers as the US and Japan is not comparable with Germany. 18F
2
In regard to the domestic and foreign uses of the national power of a country, different scholars have presented different theories and models. One of these models, which expresses national power in different domestic and particularly foreign domains, has been proposed by George Modelski and it is known as “input-output” model. Modelski model is mainly based on a series of hypothesis in political philosophy and this has been totally linked to the domain of political power. The hypotheses of this model include:
1. In foreign policy, the base in maintaining, gaining, and displaying power.
2. There are different kinds of power: constructive, educational, and destructive power. 3. The necessity of prioritizing resources to goals.
1-Mohamad Kazem. Sajad pour, foreign policy of iran, Institute for Political and International Studies, 2002,p.46
Using theory of systems, Modelski compares and evaluates the foreign policy behavior and respectively just considers on two phases of input and output of power.
Figure 1: Evaluation of input and output of power
Source:Gorge modelski, quoted by Hossein, Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan publication, 2003:p.352
As it can be seen in figure 1, the main variables of the model are input-output of power
and the policy making phase is used as a transferring fuse. The contents of modelski model show that he used the mental framework governing the calculation of profits and expenses in order to explain the political system as a power-producing system. In this system, the policy maker must pay attention to the fact that the outcomes of power must be increasingly
more than the inputs of power. The environment for making policies must be in a way that the policy maker decided on the basis of the profits that can be gained from both domestic and foreign operation environment. Input of power generates the profits for middle power that is the decision making environment. Eventually, output of power must be much more in comparison to input of power. Modelski’s model conclusion is that governments’ conservatism, balance, and ambitious attitude depends on the output of power that is being generated.
Comparing this change and exchange in the form of input and output of power objectively shows the way profits are enhanced in the framework of national strategy. This issue forces foreign policy makers to operate and measure the goals and resources of foreign policy and thus is this project is implemented, then the interference of mentalities and related objective issues in regard to foreign policy will be to a great extent prevented. 19F
1
The relationship between power, interests and national strategy:
National power has in nature a tendency toward expansion and development and all nations seek to increase their national power as well. No country can be found that is not trying to increase the level of its natural power and enhance its position in the international system. Just like all humans, countries have a competition for gaining more power and attempt to gain new capabilities, opportunities, and capacities. In fact, national power is active in nature. While it can be manifested as a national goal, it can also be used as a tool by the governments and political leaders to gain, maintain and develop national goals. 20F
2
National goals and interests are active as well and are always changing. National power and security are considered among national goals which the governments try to secure by using the lever of national power. In fact, national power is a two-dimensional phenomenon, namely it is both the goal and the tool. It is a tool used by governments and political leaders to gain national goals and security. The objective form and the main manifestation of application of national power is in national strategy adopted by political leaders of a country. It is in the national strategy that the most efficient pattern of national power is
1-Gorge. modelski, quoted by Hossein, Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan publication, 2003:p.353
determined by political leaders. On the other hand, national power depends on it. Therefore, the necessity of existence of a country and a nation as well as its success require that nations and governments always try to maintain and develop their national power as national power is the factor of existence and success of a nation. Among the main motivations for gaining national power is shortage of resources because “shortage of enough available resources and the contradictory elements that exist for achieving the goals results in the activation of the motivation for increasing power in order to accomplish the goals. 21F
1
On the whole, there is a three-way relationship between national power ,national interests, and national strategy. The quality of level of satisfying national interests depends on the level and quality of national power of that country. In order to establish a relationship between these two variables “strategy” plays an important role. In other words, strategy is manifested between two phenomena and issues; one is power and its tools and the second one is the goal and objective. Strategy is the link between these two phenomena. In fact, strategy is the art and nature of application of power in order to achieve the goals.22F
2 In order
to define national strategy, it has been said that: strategy is the science of politics and governing countries and national strategy is the science and knowledge of organized development of economic, political, cultural, religious, ethical, and military capacities of a nation and its application for achieving the national goals 23F
3. In addition, another definition
of national goal says: “strategy consists of the art of application of all elements of power of a nation or a group of nations in order to achieve their goals during war and peace. 24F
4
In a country, strategy is the art of the political leaders of a country to look at the capabilities, abilities, and level of national power, on one hand, and look at the national interests and goals on the other hand. They then need to adopt the policies to achieve national goals and interests by using their level of national power. Therefore, the three elements of national power, national goals and interests, and strategy, are all linked together and interact with one another. The following picture expresses this relationship.
1-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Theory-Building in International Relations Fundamentals and Paradigms, Tehran, Samt publication p. 144
2-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 302
3-Robert. Walters , Nuclear Weapon,Tehran,trans: fatahi mohamad reza, Tehran, policy of iran, Institute for Political and International Studies, 1985,p.3
Figure 2. The relationship between national power, interests, and strategy
Source: Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 302
The relationship between national power, geopolitical weight and domain of influence: On the other hand, there is also a relationship between countries’ geopolitical weight, national power, and domain of influence. In this way, geopolitical weight of a country, which is applied to the mathematical sum of elements of national power 25F
1, determines the
position of the national power of a country and its geopolitical position among all countries and in the world. In addition, geopolitical weight and position affects the national strategy of a country in the region and in the world and determines that country’s domain of influence. In contrast, the quality and quantity of countries’ domain of influence affects their geopolitical weight and national power. Therefore, governments attempt to expand the domain of influence between them and it is by expanding the domain of influence, which is
mainly a space-geographical concept, that national security is secured, threats are reduced, and national interests are satisfied. The following figure is indicative of this relationship. 26F
1
Figure 3: The relationship between Geopolitical weight, National power, and Domain of influence
Source: Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 212
On the whole, distribution of power in the international community is not equal and each political unit attempts to allocate to itself a greater proportion of power. On this basis, the desires and behavior of strong and weak governments in the international system and its emergence in the international arena is different. In other words, stronger governments, when faced with other countries’ power, are capable of preserving their independence and the more the power and capability of a government, the more expanded their domain of action. Moreover, in the international system, stronger countries enjoy more facilities and tools to preserve their interests and in turn weaker counties have more capability to bargain.
27F
2 In addition, governments and nations face difficult conditions for securing their interests
and desires and in regard to their relationship with other governments and getting out of it, while trying to secure the interests depends on the degree of national power of the country.
1 -Ibid 2-Ibid
When faced with a crisis, stronger counties change the conditions to their benefit, but weaker countries will be forced to tolerate the difficulties and ignore all or some of their desires and interests. It should be mentioned that the application of national power during the crisis depends on the characteristics of leaders of countries. 28F
1
In addition to all these, strong governments have a more expanded domain of national interests and thus face more conflicts in the arena of international politics. Meanwhile, the domain of interests of weak countries is usually local and regional and thus limited. For instance, in the post world War II periods, each international event affected the interests of the two superpowers of the US and Soviet Union in a way that any reaction or threatening action from the part of each of these two superpowers in the international system was considered a threat against the other one. This meant that the relative position of power of these two countries was controlled by the other one. Meanwhile, weak countries did not pay a lot attention about the events that were happening on the other side of the world because they were basically occupied with their own issues and their domain of interests did not go beyond the borders of their region. 29F
2 Another distinguishing feature of super powers and
weak countries is the expansion of their security domain. The relative power of superpowers provides them with the opportunity to fundamentally define and change the rules and regulations of international challenges and so wither stay immune to the consequences or reduce them to a minimum in spite of all repeated mistakes. They even sometimes transferred their wrong decisions to other parts of the world. This is while weaker countries are forced to pay a heavy price for each small mistake and because they cannot afford the price, their position will become very fragile.
On the whole, great powers try to maintain their position in the arena of international relations and put an end to international challenges in a way that power will be distributed to their benefit. On the other hand, weaker countries that are not satisfied with the unequal distribution of power in the international system do not like to keep the current situation and
1-Sayed Abdol ali. Gavam, The Principles of foreign policy and international politics ,Tehran ,Samt press , 2001.p.63
desire to make changes in the pattern and fabric of international system.30F Table 1 is
indicative of this issue.
Table 1: Capability of the players
Source: Seifzadeh, (2003) , op. cit, P. 119
Table 1 shows the general capability of each of the players. Theoretically, the figure simply indicates that in the international political system, only power must be considered because lack of power makes a country weak and passive in the international arena. It should also be mentioned that although small and middle players would like to change the situation, they perforce to limit their ambitious to a great extent. 31F
2
Summary of discussion:
1-Ibid
1. The main applications of power include: securing national interests and expanding and preserving it, guaranteeing the accomplishment of the wishes of a nation or country, factor of survival and development of a nation and a country, following functional goals by intentional measures through affecting the international environment (in the international dimension), changing social resources to “applicable science” that produces the best possible military and non-military technology (domestic dimension)
2. There is a direct relationship between the national power of a country and its role in the international relations. In other words, the kind of foreign policy of a country guarantees its role in the international arena and this is the result of the national power of a country.
3. National strategy links national power and national interests. In fact, strategy of art and the nature of using power is for accomplishment of national goals. In a country, strategy is the art of political leaders so to look at the capabilities, abilities, and level of national power and on the other hand, look at national goals and interests.
4. There is a relationship between national power and geopolitical weight of a country as well as its domain of influence. Strong countries have a more expanded domain of national interests and face fewer obstacles in the way of achieving their goals. On the other hand, the domain of national interests of weak countries is limited and such countries face numerous failures and challenges in the way of achieving their goals.32F
1
1-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The evaluation of the variables effective on national power and designing of the model for measurement of national power of countries .Thesis of Ph.D in political geography ,Tarbiat Modares University,Iran,2006, p. 45
Chapter Two:
A Historical Approach at power-creating factors
One of the important issues in discussions on national power is the historical approach to regimes of power and power-creating factors in history. In more exact words, the question is in different periods what factors and tools caused the creation of hegemony and absolute power for a special country in the system of power. Fundamentally, seeking power, hegemony or control over regional affairs, parts or all of the world has been the main objective in geopolitical competitions 33F
1 and the attempts by great powers has always been in
this regard in order to achieve unique power-creating factors and tools have a better position in the current power system.
Factors and tools for creating hegemony in the historical systems of power:
Trying to answer the question that in different periods of historical systems of power, what factors and tools caused the creation of hegemony and prior power for any particular country in the system of power, theorists have provided different explanations. Geographical location, communication means, military factors, economic factors, cultural tools, political position, or a combination of all these factors have been considered to be the means of gaining power. According to these theorists, the arena of international relations is the arena of competition between the players who try to increase their national power in order to gain supremacy over other players in the international arena of power. 34F
1 The table
below shows the different approaches toward hegemony.
Table2: Different approaches toward Hegemony
Source:Joseph,Nye,quoted by Mohamad Hossini Moghadam, Soft Power,Tehran, Quarterly Rahbord,2003,p.351
As it was mentioned before, theorists have expressed different opinions about hegemony-creating factors and tools in different historical periods. These theories are to be explained here:
some scholars in the political science have emphasized that military power is one of the sources for creating hegemony. In such an approach, hegemonic supremacy is the result of military expansion. Thus, being equipped with weapons and fire units in the 14th and 15th centuries is regarded as a reason behind some changes in the distribution of
power.35F
1 Moreover, the attempts made by Napoleon and Hitler in regard to military
expansion have been considered to provide the grounds for hegemony in the political world. The important issue is that except for short periods in history, no military hegemony has proved successful in the recent centuries and no modern government has managed to develop its military power in a way to have enough power to create a long-term hegemony in the world. (Refer to Table 3). 36F
2
Table 3: Attempts for creating military Hegemony
Source: Joseph,Nye, quoted by Mohamad Hossini Moghadam, Soft Power,Tehran, Quarterly Rahbord,2003,p.353
Some other theorists have attributed economic sources of power and its role to creating hegemony. According to this attitude, some economic sources for creating hegemony include: having an advantage over controlling raw materials, investment resources, markets, and production of goods
Some radical political economists like Wallerstein have also investigated the relationship between political and military hegemony and have offered different factors
1-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 87
2-Joseph. Nye, Power in the Global Information Age: From realism to globalization ,London: Routledge, 2004 ,p. 63
for creating hegemony. Immanuel Wallerstein describes hegemony as a situation in which power is so imbalanced that one power can impose most of its wished and rules on others in the economic, political, military, diplomatic, and even cultural arenas. The materialistic base of such a power is the result of its capability in taking brave and effective measures in all three main areas of economy (industrial production, agricultural production, trade, and financial affairs).37F1 In return, theorists advocating hegemonic
stability, usually reject the relationship between military and political hegemony and power. They state that in the 19th century Britain was not a super military power and it was not the biggest economic power in the world. Meanwhile, Britain is considered by some people like Giplin et al. a hegemonic power. 38F
2
Some have also describes hegemony on the basis of behavioral factors. On this basis, hegemony refers to a government that can regulate laws and regulations as well as agreements for global economy. Robert Giplin, a prominent theorist in transfer of hegemony, states that Britain and the US, as hegemonic powers after industrial revolution, changed and implemented the rules of liberal economic system. Some political economists state that the stability of the system of global economy is in need of a defined factor for balance and stability periods accord with hegemonic periods. From this point of view, the peace periods in Britain and the US are two examples. The US and Britain were so strong that they compiled and implemented the rules and principles for liberal economic system in the international arena in the 19th and 20th centuries. For instance, it is believed that historically economic stability has been gained only when an exclusive hegemonic power existed, like Britain from 1815 until World War I and the US from 1945 until about 1970. With an exclusive hegemonic power, the rules of the game can be compiled and implemented. In such conditions, smaller countries have fewer choices and have to progress in the defined paths. Without a hegemonic power, war would be a widespread event. 39F
3
Seifzadeh is another scholar who has offered some theories in regard to the value of players in the international system of power. He is of the conviction that two series of
1-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 87 2-Nye. (2004) , op. cit, P. 63 3-Ibid
hardware and software factors exist in both the domestic and foreign domains. These hardware and software domains can play a role as power-creating factors in increasing and decreasing the value of countries and powers. The following figure presents the gist.
Figure 4. Change in the Esteem of the players
Source: Seifzadeh, (2003) , op. cit, P. 112
According to Seifzadeh, the 20th century witnessed the achievements resulting from
four main changes in technological development. These four changes were in fact a response to the ambitions of giving power to humanity. Researches concerning the continuous scientific attempts combined the three factors of energy hardware, industry, and communication means along with logical ambitions and gained the following achievements:
∗ Technology, industry and transport means to conquer the surface and the depth of the earth by using oil and coal
∗ Technology, industry, and transport means to conquer the surface, depth, and bed of the sea by using electricity
∗ Technology and industry to conquer the surface and depth of space by using nuclear energy
∗ Information technology by using energy of the mind and experimental data for conquering the surface and depth of human mind
According to Seifzadeh, in the international arena the players who have managed to make their hardware and software factors efficient, managed to enhance their position by regarding the requirements arising from international environment. The main evolution began in 1750. The three sources of energy, industry, and means of transport along with the ambition to conquer the sea, the earth and the space resulted in change. During the four revolutions, the colonized America turned into a four-dimensional superpower. Since then, the type of energy changed from tree coal to stone coal, and then oil, electricity, nuclear energy, and information energy.
In the domain of hardware, industry began in the two areas of physics-mechanics and chemistry. Physics, mechanics, and the advanced field of cybernetic provided the grounds for combining the factors and creating power. Chemistry was the factor for combining these elements. Industry gradually began from light industries. After that, such advanced industries like electronic brain, computer, and robot replaced them. In the area of communication, the means of conquering the sea were first ships and submarines and they provided humanity with the opportunity to access different locations and be able to move between places. Cars, trains, and subways provided this ability on the ground. Then moving on the surface did not seem to be enough, and thus submarines and spacecrafts were built and used to access the depth of the oceans and space. These hardware factors set the grounds for making modern human more capable. 40F
1
Seifzadeh believes that domestic software factors should be regarded along with hard factors. Without having philosophical ambition for progress one cannot be hopeful to progress. Humanism and the thought for conquering the earth, the sea, and the sky were very influential in this progress. In order to gain such a high position, in the west the organization of the government- which was the factory of producing power- was first developed by Machiavelli and then became a philosophy by Hobbes The achievements of Locke, Rousseau, Montesquieu were very effective for setting the grounds for deepening nationalism. Not only democracy put an end to the discrepancy between high and low classes between people and intellectuals, it activated the whole society for enhancing national power. Instead of using the force of the government for controlling people or using the force of people for collapsing the government, democracy provided a model of intellectuality and provided national unity. Different revolutions occurred in the political, cultural, and economic grounds to determine how the citizens of developed countries should divide their tasks: government must manage and direct and people must produce power.
In the international arena, the two groups of hardware and software factors provide the requirements for foreign measures of the countries. Hardware requirements can be divided into three categories of military- political, economic-technological, and cultural-communicative factors. Software factors in the international arena can also be divided into three groups of political structure (international order), international legal organizations, and international unions. Three international hardware requirements have left different effects on the power game and position of the players depending on environmental changes. In the past, the military-political structure was very effective. Gradually, the cultural-communicative structure gained a more significant role. Each of the following changes shows us the role of the players. For instance, from the military-political viewpoint, players can be divided into five groups: superpowers, big powers, average powers, small powers, and tiny powers. Capabilities and activity domain of each of these powers is different.
Depending on the number of tools of power used by the players, each can be divided into multi-dimensional or single-dimensional power.41F
1
Just like Seifzadeh, who emphasizes on the element of cultural structure, Gramsci and Cox are other theorists of this field who claim that culture has an important role in creating hegemonic power. According to them, the attempts for leading the world are possible through the way of culture. Gramsci believes that a country will lead the world in the future that has the best interpretations of global changes. 42F
2 Such a country can
culturally lead other societies in the future.
Peter Taylor, a scholar of political geography, has also proposed some theories in regard to the grounds of hegemony and the way geopolitical position of countries is subject to change. According to him: “in the arena of political geography, hegemony will govern a country that is very strong in regard to economy, politics, or culture for a short time. This cycle includes the emergence and fall of this position. This cycle begins when the ruling country gains a prior position in production and thus expands its leadership in order to gain commercial and financial fields. In addition, this country gains its political rule by jointly leading the countries in a successful competition with its main competitor. It then attempts to use international affairs to its benefit. The ruling country is then able to impose its cultural leadership and its liberal ideological values. however, after a short period the peak of its leadership role will gradually decline”. 43F
3
Taylor is of the conviction that a ruling country like the UK is mid 19th century and the US in mid 20th century, are not only superior in the military arena, but also allocate
to themselves the economic and cultural resources of power so that to compile their regulations and to impose their international behavior. As a result, “US rule is not only indicative of change in the identity of ruling power, but it is also indicative of the
1-Seifzadeh. (2000) , op. cit, P. 120 2-Ibid
institutions and the methods through which the US has presented to the world its positions of power. Such issues include: production, massive consumption, limited welfare-social policies, electoral democracy based on weak political parties, and economic policies of the government in line with stimulating private economic activities”. 44F
1
Noam Chomsky is another theorist in regard to the global system of power.He
believes that competition for leading the international system and position of winner power is mainly economic. According to him, the structure of capitalism is in a way that being superior in economic-industrial power means gaining winner power in the system. Leaders of capitalist governments consciously try to achieve this aim and position. From Chomsky’s point of view it is for maintaining such superior and winner position and
global ruling that the US wants to keep its technological superiority over other countries.45F
2
Quincy Wright is another scholar who believes in the role of economic factors in creating military hegemonic power. He mentions the role of economic factors and regards the economic capability of a country for tolerating the cost of war as an intensifying factor for war. According to him: “countries always seek to increase their military capabilities for war. A new war will happen when a country reconstructs its economic capability. Heavy industries consider the time suitable for giving speed to their production of war weapons”. To Quincy Wright, the first measure in this phase is that imperialistic tendencies will reappear. Then in order to justify these tendencies, the factor of defense against invasions will be proposed. Gradually, some sort of war polarization will happen. The new situation encourages those powers that are in risk to find solutions and then war will become inevitable. He describes the changes in patterns of industry of war and divides it into four important periods of discovery in war industry. 1. Period of experimental adaption of war weapons and religious wars (1450-1648)
1-Ibid .p. 275
2. Period of emergence of professional armies and tribal wars (1648-1789) 3. Period of industrialization and national wars
4. Period of full-scale wars and emergence of air and military industries (1914 onward)
46F 1
Modelski is another theorist who has proposed some factors as the tools of great powers for ruling the world. In his theory called “theory of power cycle” has considered some hypotheses for achieving sovereign power. Among them is that the political leadership of the world is in need of leadership in the economic power because economic power gives order to global economy and facilitates giving order to the political structure and war technology. Alongside political determining power, he considers the waves of political innovation. In fact, he attaches more significance to political power and the innovations resulting from it, but believes an economic power is needed to achieve and to implement these supremacies. Therefore, there is a need for a combination of political and economic innovation in order to gain a position in regard to leading the world. According to the two kinds of innovations stated above, global communications industry will revolutionized as well. 47F
2 Using this frame of history,
Modelski predicts that in the future cyclic changes will cause the emergence of two processes. 1) decline of US leadership 2)possible changes in the process of global wars. Explaining the first item, he insists that US leadership has not arrived to its end yet. In order to keep this position, the US aims to maintain its leadership by creating some sort of political and economic innovation inside its borders. However, to Modelski, this wish will come true only when the US succeeds to strategically emphasize its political innovations. In regard to the second item, Modelski claims that global war will turn into global peace and thus the future global leadership will be mainly based in political, technological, and economic merits rather than military power. 48F
3 also Modelski and
William Thompson in book ” Leading Sectors and World” present new Model about
1-Quincy. Wright, A Study of War, Chicago, University of Chicago press,1942, p.295-8 2-Seifzadeh. (2000) , op. cit, P. 120
Leading Sectors in creation Hegemonic Control during historical ages. The following Figure 5, expresses this issue:
SOURCE: George. Modelski and William R. Thompson, Leading Sectors and World Powers (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1996), p. 69.
Chapter Three:
Sources and Factors of national power
National power has different sources and basics that produce national power in one single function. The main factors forming national power of countries are in different domains. Geopolitical science, which investigates and evaluates national power of countries, pays attention to all these factors. Some of these factors of power have a basic and fundamental role and some other considered secondary. 49F
1
Power of countries depends on different factors and resources and it actually arises from them. Economic, individual, scientific and spiritual, social factors and the like can all be
1-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The evaluation of the Models of measurement of national power, Tehran, Geopolitics Quatrerly , Geogrphical Organization ,winter 2008, p.155
sources of power. Factors of national power are both in regard to quality and quantity, it means variables of each of the abovementioned factors can have both quantity and quality aspects. Since the issue of national power has been regarded by geography scientists, geopolitics and political geography professionals, political science and international relations specialists, strategy makers and politicians, each group has tried to provide to present a list of the factors affecting national power and most of these factors have been agreed upon. However, the common problem in all of them, which has not dealt with yet, is measuring national power and its indexes. 50F1 Due to the existence of some quality factors
and impossibility of measuring them, no one has managed to offer a proper and complete model for comprehensive measuring of national power. However, some researches have managed to assess and compare the power of countries on the basis of some factors and variables and thus show the position of countries and regions in the world. On the whole, power is either assessed in comparison to another power or in comparison to a number of important indexes or level of power. In other words, an average of the producing factors of power in one country is assessed. 51F
2
Different points of view on factors ,foundations and sources of national power:
Scholars in different fields such as political science, international relations, political geography and geopolitics have expressed their viewpoints for explaining the resources of power in different countries. Here the viewpoints and opinions of different experts in regard to the factors and bases of different countries’ power will be presented in brief:
David Jablonsky explains the variables of national power as: 1. Natural factors of power, including:
A. Geography: location, climate, size, topography that affect national capacity B. Population: size, processes, structure, etc.
C. Natural resources: raw materials of agriculture and farming, mines, burning materials, access quality and etc.
2. Social factors of power including:
1-roshandel. op. cit ,p.70 2-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 70
A. Economy: economic capacity and development, high technology, economic growth, GDP, economic policy, economic relations ,etc
B. Army and military capacity: force, weapon technology, and etc.
C. Political factors, spirit, governance form, population attitude, management and skill of administration,
D. Psychological factor, national behavior, national character and spirit, national integrity 52F
1
Hans Morgenthau, one of the founders of Realism movement in international relations, divides the main variables and factors of national power into 8 parts, which are:
1. Geographical location
2. Natural resources (particularly food and raw material) 3. Industrial capacity
4. Military preparation (particularly technology, leadership, quantity and quality of armed forces) 5. Population (particularly distribution and tendencies)
6. National character, national spirit 7. Diplomatic quality
8. Government quality 53F 2
Organski, considers the following factors the sources of national power:
population size, political capability of government, and economic development. Combining these factors, GDP is considered to be the means of measuring national power. 54F
3
Nicholas Spikeman, the American Geo-politician, believes that the following
variables are the foundations of power: country’s size, identity of borders, population,
1-Jablonsky. op. cit,P. 43
2-Hans. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1967, quoted by ،Hoshang Amery ,Principle of International Relations, Agah press, 2002, p.33
natural resources, economic and industrial development, financial power, racial compatibility, amount of social integrity, political stability, and national spirit. 55F
1
Martin Glassner, scholar of political geography, names the variables of national power as:
1. Land, including: location, size, shape, expansion, strategic depth, natural resources, environmental foundations
2. Population, including: quality and quantity aspects such as number, gender and age relations, military force arising from it, immigration, level of education, literacy, distribution of wealth, national quality, national combination, smart people, social institutions, way of thinking and national interests
3. Government, structure, efficiency, populism, general acceptability, quality of managers and political leaders, health of performance, lawfulness, and etc.
4. Economy: wealth, GDP, capacity of production, trade surplus, science and technology, investment, research, industry, skill of human force, management, agriculture, bank, insurance, etc.
5. Communications: transport, goods flow, services, and beliefs, level of awareness, radio, telephone, TV, media, etc.
6. Military force: equipment, force, education, quality of governance, motivations, logistics, military doctrine, strategy and tactic, information system, preparation of the forces, strategic bases, strategic partners.
7. Foreign relations: international trade, cultural relations, participation in distribution and transfer of development resources, participation in the UN and other international organizations, international position and prestige. 56F
2
Guido Fischer, German author, considers the following three groups the variables of national power:
1-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 172
1. Political factors, including: geographical location, size of land, population size and distribution, organizational skill and cultural level, types of borders and the position of neighboring countries.
2. Psychological factors, including: economic flexibility and skill in invention, tolerance and perseverance, talent and capacity of change and transfer
3. Economic factors, including: capacity of the land and underground wealth, industrial
organization and level of technology, foreign trade development, financial resources.
57F 1
Another German author, named Rudolf Steinmetz, considers the following eight elements the contributing variables to national power: 1. Population; 2. Size of the land; 3. Wealth; 4. political facilities; 5. Quality of governance; 6. National unity and integrity; 7. Maintaining the respect and friendship of foreign powers; 8. Behavioral quality 58F
2
Huang Suofeng, the well-known Chinese scholar, in his book titled “comprehensive national power” mentions that soft power is made up of: political power, educational and cultural power, diplomatic power, and partnership power:
Political power includes political system, strategic goals, social stability, national unity, capacity of making decisions and organization. Cultural and educational power means the quality of the work force, development of human resources, educational investment, educational system, educational comprehensiveness, teachers’ quality, quality of cultural authorities, spread of TV, film, books, journals, and their influence in the international arena, diplomatic power including foreign relations, foreign policy, foreign activities, and the ability of cooperating in the international community. The power of partnership is principally refers to the ability of controlling and supervising team work. 59F
3
1-Hoshang. Amery ,Principle of International Relations, Agah press, 2002, p.328
2-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The introduction to national power, Tehran, Research Institute of Strategic Studies, 2009,p. 124
3-ZHU. Majie ,Role of Soft Power in International Relations ,Taken from Internet:http://www.Siis .org.cn/English/journal/en 2003/Zhumajie.htm
John Wakelin , in his book titled “The Roots of Diplomacy” names the factors and variables of national power as follows:
1. Geographical factors, including: size, shape, natural situation, borders, situation, geographical realm and conditions
2. Military factors, including: defense budget, number of personnel, military equipment, techniques, strong movements, quality of military leadership.
3. Economic factors, including: resources, food, productions, energy
4. Colonies, including: resources of colonies, human force, military bases of colonies 5. Social and human factors, including: population, national characteristics and national
spirit, social unity
6. Political factors, including: political stability, leadership, governance, factor of popularity, national prestige, applied quality of resources of national power. 60F
1
In his book titled “international Relations in the Changing World”, Joseph Frankel
names the power-creating factors as: population, geography, economy, government and military organization, psychological-social factors, and international strategic situation. 61F
2
National Institute of Studies in Japan has designed the project of comprehensive national power of Japan and has offered 3 main factors for calculating the comprehensive national power of a country. These factors are: capacity of international cooperation, ability of survival, power of force, capacity of international cooperation to the capabilities of the country and its presence in the international arena. Capacity of survival depends on national determination and friendly union and the power of force emphasizes the capability of the country in management of its foreign relations. 62F
3
Saul,b.Cohen, the contemporary American scholar of political geography, names the factors affecting power and the role of each of the components of system such as governments and countries, as:
1-John. Wakelin ,The Roots of Diplomacy, Trans: Abdolali Gavam ,Tehran, Gomes press, 1991,p. 69-71 2-Joseph. Frankel, International relations in a changing World, Tehran, Translate by Abdolrahman Aalem, Institue for Political and International Studies,2003, p.150
1. Domestic factors and changes such as political, economic, social, cultural and technological structure.
2. Foreign factors such as foreign trade, political relations, military bases, foreign partners, immigration issue, etc which help the development and mutual interaction between countries and governments as well as the connection between them as components of the system.
3. Domestic forces which are present in the foreign countries.
63F 1
Based on ten factors of investment, agricultural production, industrial production, export, developmental research, number of scientists, number of engineers, reduction of foreign debts, scientific exchange, and number of pattern inventions, Cohen designed a pattern to evaluate countries. 64F
2
John M. Colins in his work titled “Big Strategy”, names the following factors as the variables of national power: influential political force in the domestic and international arenas, national character, educations and science, and many other factors.
In his model for measuring national power, Ray Cline mentions the following
elements as factors of power: economic capacity and capability, population and expansion, tendency to continue national strategy, strategic objective, military capability and capacity. 65F
3
Friedrich Ratzel has also emphasized on the role of two factors of expansion and location of countries on their power. 66F
4
Pamer and Parkins contribute countries’ power to seven phenomena:
Geographical situation, mineral resources, technology, population, ideology, national spirit, leadership. 67F
5
1-Saul.B. Cohen ,Geopolitics in the new world Era, In Reordering in the world ,USA :west view press ,1994, P.43
2-Ibid
3-Tellis .et al. op. cit , p.30
4-Doreh. Mirhydar, political geography, Tehran, Samt press, 1998, p.6 5-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 119
Jalil Roshandel in his book titled national security and international system, names the factors of national power as:
geographical factors, including: climate, geographical situation, expansion, raw material, natural resources
*human factors, including: population, population combination, population quality, human force, industrial human force
*cultural factors, including: cultural heritage, national unity, ideology
*structure of government, including: political form of the government, efficiency of government. 68F
1
Ali Asghar Kazemi names the following variables as the factors of national power:
1. Geographical location; 2. Population and human force; 3. Production capacity and
ability, resource and factories; 4. Transport and communication; 5. Scientific talents, innovations and inventions; 6. Economic system; 7. Administrative and governmental organization; 8. Strategic situation; 9. Ideology and social behavior; 10. Information and knowledge; 11. Military equipment; 12. Leadership wisdom. 69F
2
Jamrasani Farahani believes that the elements of national power are formed from
domestic tools as well as the tools of the allies. These tools include: political force dominating the thoughts and actions of those inside and outside the country, geographical strength and weakness, economic power particularly natural resources, capacity of industries, financial credits, living location, spirit and education, scientific and technological base, military and leadership equipment. 70F
3
In his book titled “Different Theories in International Relations”, Hussein Seifzadeh considers the variables of power to be: 1. Geographical situation; 2. National resources; 3. Population; 4. Quality of government; 5. National spirit; 6. Quality of leadership; 7. Nationalism; 8. National characteristics; 9. Ideology; 10. Democracy; 11. Capacity and degree of leadership in a nation. 71F
4
1-roshandel. OP. CIT,P. 69 2-Kazemi. op. cit (1994), p. 139
3-Ali reza. Gamrasani Farahany, concepts of national security, Tehran, 1995,p. 24
Kenneth N. Waltz suggests the following items: “population size and land size,
resources, economic capability, military power, stability and political capability”. 72F
1
Joshua GoldStein in International Relation emphasizes the significance of
population, land, geography, natural resources as well as political culture, nationalism, and science and technology as the sources of power. However, among the sources of power, he attaches great significance to geography and geopolitical situation of the country and says the most important factors of great position of a government are: location, location, and location. 73F
2
From a Geopolitical point of view, factors of power include:
A. Fixed factors including, 1. Space and its divisions; 2. Land or location; 3. Expansion of the land; 4. Natural resources and paths; 5. Shape of the country B. Dynamic factors, including: 1. Population and residents; 2. Natural resources; 3.
Political, social, and cultural organizations. 74F 3
Tahami explain the factors of national power as:
1. Economic factors, including: economic development, good economic and commercial relations with other countries, lack of unemployment (creating job opportunities), not being dependent on one single production, economic and technological independence, fair distribution of income
2. Cultural and social factors, including: resolving ideological conflicts, solving the issue of immigration, cultural enhancement, cultural exchanges with other nations, removing the gaps between the poor and the rich, freedom and creating social justice, lack of brain drain, resolving the negative effect of foreigners propaganda, solving the problem of environmental pollution
3. Political factors, including: resolving border disputes, political unity and sympathy with other countries particularly the neighboring countries, strengthening the
1-Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics Reading, son-Wesley, 1979, quoted by Tellis ,et al. op. cit , p.32
2-Joshua .Goldstein, International Relations. New York, Longman, 1999, p.59 3-Ezatolah . Eezaty, Geopolitics, Tehran, Samt press, 1998,p. 25
