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DISCLOSURES
THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS PRESENTATION, WHICH IS BEING PROVIDED ON A CONFIDENTIAL BASIS, ARE CURRENT OPINIONS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL AS MAY 8, 2017 ONLY, AND MAY CHANGE AS SUBSEQUENT CONDITIONS VARY. ANY PROJECTIONS, MARKET OUTLOOKS OR ESTIMATES IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS AND ARE BASED UPON CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS. OTHER EVENTS WHICH WERE NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT MAY OCCUR AND MAY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT RETURN OR PERFORMANCE. ANY PROJECTIONS, OUTLOOKS OR ASSUMPTIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO BE INDICATIVE OF THE ACTUAL EVENTS WHICH WILL OCCUR.
THIS PRESENTATION MAY CONTAIN “FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS” WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995, AS AMENDED. BECAUSE SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES, ACTUAL RESULTS MAY DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM ANY EXPECTATIONS, PROJECTIONS OR PREDICTIONS MADE OR IMPLICATED IN SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. INVESTORS ARE THEREFORE CAUTIONED NOT TO PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.
IN CONSIDERING THE PRIOR PERFORMANCE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION, INVESTORS SHOULD BEAR IN MIND THAT PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS, AND THERE CAN BE NO ASSURANCE THAT ANY ACCOUNTS MANAGED BY SOCIAL CAPITAL WILL ACHIEVE RESULTS COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF ANY PRIOR OR EXISTING FUND. RECIPIENTS SHOULD NOT ASSUME THAT SECURITIES IDENTIFIED IN THIS PRESENTATION, OR OTHERWISE RELATED TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION, ARE, HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE, INVESTMENTS HELD BY ACCOUNTS MANAGED BY SOCIAL CAPITAL.
THESE MATERIALS DO NOT PURPORT TO BE ALL-INCLUSIVE OR TO CONTAIN ALL THE INFORMATION THAT AN INVESTOR MAY DESIRE. THESE MATERIALS ARE MERELY FOR DISCUSSION ONLY AND MAY NOT BE RELIED UPON FOR MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN MAY BE MODIFIED OR SUPPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME.
INVESTORS SHOULD NOT CONSTRUE THE CONTENTS OF THIS PRESENTATION OR ANY PRIOR OR SUBSEQUENT COMMUNICATION FROM SOCIAL CAPITAL OR ANY OF ITS REPRESENTATIVES OR AFFILIATES, AS LEGAL, TAX, OR INVESTMENT ADVICE.
THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY WHICH MAY ONLY BE MADE AT THE TIME A QUALIFIED OFFEREE RECEIVES A CONFIDENTIAL PRIVATE OFFERING MEMORANDUM OR CONFIDENTIAL EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM (EACH, AN “OFFERING MEMORANDUM”) DESCRIBING THE OFFERING AND RELATED SUBSCRIPTION AGREEMENT AND IN THE CASE OF ANY INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE DESCRIPTIONS OR TERMS IN THIS PRESENTATION AND THE OFFERING MEMORANDUM, THE APPLICABLE OFFERING MEMORANDUM SHALL CONTROL. THIS PRESENTATION IS QUALIFIED IN ITS ENTIRETY BY REFERENCE TO SUCH DOCUMENTATION, INCLUDING THE RISK FACTORS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST DISCLOSURES SET FORTH THEREIN. AN INVESTMENT IN ACCOUNTS MANAGED BY SOCIAL CAPITAL IS SPECULATIVE AND INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK.
WHILE ALL THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS BELIEVED TO BE ACCURATE, SOCIAL CAPITAL MAKES NO EXPRESS WARRANTY AS TO THE COMPLETENESS OR ACCURACY NOR CAN IT ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ERRORS APPEARING IN THE PRESENTATION. IN PARTICULAR, CERTAIN FACTUAL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM PUBLISHED SOURCES PREPARED BY OTHER PARTIES AND SOCIAL CAPITAL HAS NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED SUCH INFORMATION
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
DISCLOSURES
SLIDE 5:
LOGOS PRESENTED REPRESENT THE PAST EMPLOYERS OF SELECT PAST AND PRESENT EMPLOYEES, ENTREPRENEURS IN RESIDENCE AND BOARD PARTNERS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL.
SLIDE 8:
40% INCEPTION TO DATE ANNUALIZED RETURN, THE INCEPTION TO DATE ANNUALIZED RETURN PRESENTED REPRESENTS THE RATE OF RETURN ON AMAZON FROM ITS MAY 3, 2016 CLOSING PRICE TO THE CLOSING PRICE AS OF MAY 1, 2017.
SLIDE 62 & 63:
2021 (1.25%) AND 2022 (2.375%) AND $360 AND $327 CONVERSION PRICE, REPRESENTS THE ANNUAL INTEREST RATE ON TESLA’S CONVERTIBLE SENIOR NOTES BASED ON MATURITY DATES OF 2021 AND 2022, ALONG WITH THEIR CONVERSION PRICE. TO LEARN MORE ON THE CONVERTIBLE SENIOR NOTES, PLEASE REFER TO THE PROSPECTUS, WHICH CAN BE FOUND ON HTTPS://WWW.SEC.GOV/ARCHIVES/EDGAR/DATA/1318605/000119312517086226/D535687D424B5.HTM.
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
To advance humanity by solving the
world’s hardest problems
4
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
We are technologists and
entrepreneurs who have helped build
and scale many of today’s best
companies:
5
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 6
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
10x in 10y
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
ITD: +40%
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
So far, so good
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Let’s talk about a controversial
company
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Model S: gobbling up market share
12 4% 18% 17% 25% 32% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Model S Luxury Sedan Market Share
Model S Luxury Car Market Share
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Model X: gobbling up market share
13 1% 3% 6% 6% 8% 9% Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17
Model X Luxury SUV Market Share
Model X Luxury SUV Market Share
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 14
›
Model 3: 400,000 deposits = $16bn
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Model 3: already impacting
incumbents
142k
141k
106k
--
--400k
2014
2015
2016
BMW 3 Series US Sales
Model 3 Deposits
15BMW 3 Series
Demand
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
But…
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Selling cars today is just a start
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›
Selling pickups and semis tomorrow
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›
Autonomy and fleets in the near future
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 20
“Please note that using a
self-driving Tesla
for car sharing and ride hailing for friends
and family is fine, but doing so
for revenue purposes will only
be permissible on the Tesla Network
, details of which
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Acquired SolarCity
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›
Building multiple Gigafactories
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›
Building machine that builds machines
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›
Sustainable energy independence
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›
And that’s just through Q1 2017
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›
These are all extremely capital
intensive
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›
~$20bn+ capex
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›
So we modeled the business…
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›
#REF!
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Product and technology first
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›
Step 1:
Launch a revolutionary product
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›
Step 2:
Sell into a fragmented, undifferentiated
market
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Step 3:
Expand product scope + vertically
integrate
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 37
Semis
(2010+)
Software
(2007+)
Retail
(2007+)
Developer
Platform
(2008+)
OTA OS
Upgrades
(2012+)
Payments
(2014+)
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Step 4:
Expand into adjacent markets
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›
Result:
Redefine the market
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›
Commanding share
4% 11% 19% 23% 29% 36% 35% 41% 47% 44% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Global Unit Market Share (Phones > $300)
Global Unit Market Share (Phones > $300)
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Pricing power
42 $703 $712 $686 $669 $680 $716 $689 $376 $358 $320 $276 $237 $215 $212 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Smartphone ASPs
AAPL Rest of industry
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 43
›
And all the profits
15% 46% 61% 68% 73% 78% 73% 92% 92% 104% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Global Smartphone Profit Share
Global Smartphone Profit Share
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 44
›
10x in 10y
$73B $190B $625B $723B $754B D e c-06 M ar -07 Ju n -0 7 S ep-0 7 D e c-07 M ar -08 Ju n -0 8 S ep-0 8 D e c-08 M ar -09 Ju n -0 9 S ep-0 9 D e c-09 M ar -10 Ju n -1 0 S ep-1 0 D e c-10 M ar -11 Ju n -1 1 S ep-1 1 D e c-11 M ar -12 Ju n -1 2 S ep-1 2 D e c-12 M ar -13 Ju n -1 3 S ep-1 3 D e c-13 Mar -14 Ju n -1 4 S ep-1 4 D e c-14 Mar -15 Ju n -1 5 S ep-1 5 D e c-15 M ar -16 Ju n -1 6 S ep-1 6 D e c-16 M ar -17© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Step 1:
Launch a revolutionary product
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Step 2:
Sell into a fragmented, undifferentiated
market
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 48
›
NA market share by model
Ford F - Series PU 5% Dodge Ram PU 3% Chevrolet Silverado PU 3% Nissan Rogue 3% Toyota Camry 2% Honda CR-V 2% Toyota RAV4 2% Honda Civic 2%
Toyota Corolla / Matrix 2% Nissan Altima 2% Ford Escape 2% Honda Accord 2% Hyundai Elantra 1% Ford Explorer 2% Chevrolet Equinox 2% Nissan Sentra 1% Jeep Grand Cherokee
1% Ford Fusion 1% Chevrolet Cruze 1% GMC Sierra PU 1%
Rest
60%
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›
Step 3:
Expand product scope + vertically
integrate
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 50
Battery
(2012+)
Software
(2012+)
Manufacturin
g
(2012+)
Autopilot
(2015+)
Retail /
Charging
(2013+)
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Step 4:
Expand into adjacent markets
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Result:
Redefining the market?
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 54
›
TSLA on the same path as AAPL
$2 $8 $19 $3 $9 $24
v1
v2
v3
Sales ($bn)
iPhone
S / X / 3
Sales ($bn)
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
0.13%
5%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
›
Tesla can take 5% of the global auto
market
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›
The business of selling cars
56
Global Car Units (mm)
% TSLA Market Share
TSLA Units (mm)
Average ASP
Average GM%
Average GP per Car
Gross Profit ($bn)
Operating Profit ($bn)
EBIT Multiple
TSLA Auto Enterprise Value
($bn)
80
5%
4
$50,000
20%
$10,000
$40
$28
12x
$336
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Selling cars: $336bn (7x)
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
Plans and investments for:
›
Autonomous cars
›
Transportation as a service
›
Energy generation
›
Energy storage
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
How can we participate in another
potential 10x in 10y?
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
How can we share in the upside but
protect downside?
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
2022 Convertible Bonds
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›
2.375% and $327 conversion price
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.
›
No money lost as long as Tesla is worth
at least $15bn
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.