Projection of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions in Coming Decades in Indian Context

INTRODUCTION

Energy plays a vital role in the social, economic, industrial and agricultural growth and comprehensive development of a country. World wide per capita energy consumption is increasing due to rapid industrialization, urbanization and growth in transport and service sector. There is a need to maintain a balance between power generation and environmental health. Power production through fossil fuels particularly coal often leads to environmental pollution. Electricity produced from coal emits CO₂ gas at an average rate of 0.98 kg/kWh [1]. It is estimated that 55% electricity generated is from coal based thermal power plants. The combustion of coal in thermal power plants is a major cause of increase in the CO₂ concentration levels in the atmosphere2_{. 41%} share of all emissions is from coal generated electricity3_{. Several studies have shown that plants}

Projection of Carbon Dioxide (CO

) Emissions

in Coming Decades in Indian Context

I. NAWAZ

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Jamia Millia Islamia, Jamianagar, New Delhi - 110 025 (India).

(Received: May 09, 2012; Accepted: June 28, 2012)

ABSTRACT

Every observable movement involves energy. Hence, energy is obviously an important determinant in the development of a nation. To be specific, the standard of living is directly related to the per capita energy consumption in the region. The per capita energy consumption is mostly due to consumption of electricity. Therefore, electric power is one of the key factors in development of a country. The combined effect of population growth and increase in industrial, domestic and agricultural activities are inevitable and the basic reason for the increase in the worldwide energy demand. Particularly in the Indian context, the power demand is likely to increase by 7% per annum in the next few decades; assuming a GDP growth of 9%. The major resources of electricity generation are the conventional fossil fuels: coal, oil and natural gas. At present, 55% of electricity generated in India is from coal. However, use of coal for electricity generation results in increase of CO₂ concentration in atmosphere. In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate the increase in CO₂ emission on the basis of statistical analysis using the available data of power production and projected population growth.

Key words: Per capita energy consumption, Development, Power demand, CO₂ emissions, Population growth.

Sources of CO₂ emission

CO₂ emission arises by two factors namely; a. Natural sources include: volcanic out gassing, the combustion and decaying of organic matter and also the respiration process of living aerobic organisms and b. Man-made sources include: the burning of

fossil fuels, for heating, power generation, transport, industrial processes, domestic activities and agriculture as well as deforestation and other sources. They have greatly increased CO₂ concentration in atmosphere. In this study, CO₂ emission only through coal-based thermal power plants is considered.

Prediction of CO₂ emission for coming decades On the basis of “best parabolic fit” we can predict the population, electricity demand as well as CO₂ emissions from coal-based power plants for the next few decades in India.

P = az2 _{+ bz + c ...(1)}

where, P denotes the expected population and z denotes the year. The regression equation for population growth is given by [8].

P = 0.124z2 _{+ 6.64z + 353 ...(2)} where, z = Year-1950

Equation (2) has been computed up to the end of 21st _{century of India is shown in Figure (1).} Methodology

Equations (1) and (2) have been used to estimate the population growth as shown in Figure (1). The power demand is expected to be proportional to population. Following assumptions have been made:

(i) Migration of CO₂ emitted in India has not been allowed to other countries and vice versa for Indian context;

(ii) Yearly CO₂ emitted by thermal power plants is uniformly distributed in atmosphere (no stratification of CO₂ in the atmosphere) 11-km above mean sea level [9];

(iii) 50% of yearly CO₂ emitted is absorbed by photosynthesis and sea surface [10];

(iv) Electrical energy produces 0.98 kg /kWh of CO₂ in the atmosphere from coal [1]. Power demand up to 2100

The electric power generated at the generation end does not completely reach to the consumer end. Rather only a part of it is able to arrive at the consumer end. If the energy consumption per capita (E) is known, the actual power generation per capita (E₁) required, can be estimated as;

...(1)

Energy is expressed in kWh and the power generation capacity of plants is expressed in MW, (1kWh is equivalent to 0.114 MW).

Considering plant load factor (PLF) 75% [10] and Transmission & distribution losses (TDL) 23% [11], the actual power generation per capita can be estimated as;

...(4)

Similarly, the actual power generation (E₂) for whole population (P) for India can be expressed as;

E₂ = E₁×P ...(5)

Using the Equations (2) and (5), the predicted population and actual power generation capacity is given in Table 1.

CO₂ emissions

As mentioned earlier that 55% electricity generated from coal based power plants. So, we calculate 55% of column 3, 4 and 5 respectively.

...(6)

The net CO₂ emission (Mt) = 0.5×(expression of

Equation 6) ...(7)

Where Mt = million ton

RESULTS

Table (2) shows the net CO₂ emissions due to electricity generation from coal based thermal power plants of present century in India.

CO₂ Concentration (ppm): In Indian context The geographical area of India is known

to be 32, 87,263 km2 _{[12]. Assuming height of} atmosphere to be 11 km, above mean sea level9_, the atmospheric value above the territory of India is;

3.29×11×1015 _m3

The CO₂ concentration is expected to increase with CO₂ emissions from coal burnt for electricity generation. The ppm value is related to the mass of CO₂ emitted according to the following equation [13].

Table 1: Predicted population and actual power generation capacity Year Population Actual power generation capacity (MW)

(million) As per India As per China As per world

norms norms average norms

2011 122 2,40,634 5,95,094 6,69,992

2021 145 2,86,233 7,07,284 7,96,302

2031 170 3,35,584 8,29,229 9,33,596

2041 198 3,90,857 9,65,808 10,87,365

2051 229 4,52,052 11,17,020 12,57,608

2061 262 5,17,195 12,77,988 14,38,836

2071 297 5,86,286 14,48,712 16,31,047

2081 335 6,61,299 16,34,069 18,39,733

2091 375 7,40,260 18,29,182 20,59,403

2101 418 8,24,143 20,38,928 22,95,547

Table 2: CO₂ emissions due to electricity generation from coal

Year As per Indianorms As per Chinanorms As per world average norms

2011 569 1,407 1,584

2021 677 1,672 1,882

2031 793 1,960 2,207

2041 924 2,263 2,570

2051 1,069 2,641 2,973

2061 1,223 3,021 3,404

2071 1,386 3,425 3,856

2081 1,563 3,863 4,349

2091 1,750 4,324 4,868

2101 1,951 4,820 5,427

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

195119611971198

1

199120012011202120312041205120612071208

1

20912101

Year

Indi

a'

s P

opul

at

ion (

M

illio

n

) Actual Population

Predicted Population

Fig. 1: Population versus year ...(8)

The annual net increase of CO₂ concentration has been evaluated by using the following expression.

...(9)

= 0.216 ppm per year (as per India norms)

Effects of CO₂

It is a well known fact that carbon dioxide is a green house gas whose increased concentration is a possible outcome of global warming. The global warming will increase with time, and could have disastrous consequences. These might include;

´ Sea level rise

´ Negative impact on agricultural productivity ´ Spread of diseases

´ Change in ecosystem

´ Climate change

´ Significant change in the world’s rainfall pattern

´ Rise in global temperature ´ Increased extreme weather

The average global temperature has increased by more than 0.70_{C over the past century,} and the present warming rate is 0.20_{C per decade.} If continued, this trend will lead to a temperature rise of about 30_{C by the end of this century [6].} However, it is certain that the dynamic equilibrium among the major CO₂ reservoirs of the biosphere has been disturbed, and the effects of such disastrous are a matter of considerable and immediate concern.

Environmental Implications

Remedial measures

Since power is and has always been an essential part of human life, we cannot possibly reduce the power requirement. Hence, there is a strong need to control the increase of CO₂ concentration in atmosphere by

a) Control of the population growth b) Plantation of more trees

c) Reduction of dependency on fossil fuels d) Development of alternative fuel such as

hydrogen

e) Search for alternative sources of energy and f) Greater role of renewable energy sources.

All these measures become important. A balance must be maintained between human activities and environmental health. The last two suggestions in the above list deserve particular attention.

CONCLUSION

The Equation (8) shows the net increase of CO₂ concentration 19.4 ppm due to power

generation only from coal. The annual net increase of CO₂ is 0.216 ppm as per India’s energy consumption norms. However, the CO₂ emission from India is only about 4% of the global emission. On the bases of the current energy mix and present day technologies for electricity generation the CO₂ emission from India alone could become as much as half of the present of global emission in a few decades from now.

It is apparent that CO₂ emission in atmosphere is unavoidable. Further it is increasing steadily with population and the increasing energy demand. There is a strong need for greater role of renewable energy in particular of solar energy, wind energy and hydro electric power. They do not emit CO₂. A simultaneously proper policy regarding population growth and growth of more trees is indicated. These measures are obvious but have been largely ignored by policy planners. In view of the possibility of irreversible damage to the environment, wakeup call has become necessary. Greater public awareness would lead to better planning which is urgently needed.

REFERENCES

1. Watt M., Johnson a., Ellis M. and Quthred H. Life cycle air emission from PV power system. Progress in Photovoltaic: Research Application 1998.

2. Power sector at a glance All India. http:// www.powermin.nic.in indian_electricity_ scenario/introduction.htm

3. IEA statistics, International Energy Agency (IEA),CO2 emission from coal combustion, Highlights-2011,Edition. http://www.iea.org/ co2highlights/co2highlights.pdf.

4. Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide-NOAA. Earth System Research Laboratory. Global Monitoring Division, Mauna Loa, Hawai. http;//www.esrl.noaa.gov/ghg/ccgg/ trends/

5. Bihar use least power, Delhi the most-Bihar Times http://www.bihartimes.in/Newsbihar/ 2011/Aug/newsbihar15Aug/html

6. 14th _{International Exhibition & Conference} “power India 2012”, Bombay Exhibition

Centre, Goregaon, Mumbai, India. http://www. Indiapowershow.com/

7. 3 Degree opf warming-Global warming. http:/ / w w w . g l o b a l g r e e n h o u s e . c o m / 3 -degree.html

8. Nawaz I., Khan R. A., Khan M. Emran and Tiwari G. N. optimization of clean environment parameters through renewable energy sources. Int. Journal of Ambient Energy, Ambient Press Ltd. 24(3): 67-74 (2003).

9. The Earth’s atmosphere. Clouds R vUs.com-Weather Features http://www.rch27.dial. pipex.com/cloudsrus/atmosphere.html 10. All India plant load factor. http://

www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/executive_ rep/jul11/7.pdf.

11. Transmission and distr ibution losses (power) http://www.teriin.org/upfiles/pub/ papers/ft33.pdf

www.thecoloursofindia.com

13. Rao C.S. Environmental Pollution Control

Engineering. Wiley Easter Ltd. New Delhi, p 30-35 (1999).

Appendix-1 Conversion of μg/m3 _{to ppm}

The concentration of a pollutant is customarily expressed in volumetric terms. At present, gaseous concentration are expressed with mixed units of mass per unit volume such as µg/m3_{. The relationship} between ppm (by volume) and µg/m3 _{depends on the density of the pollutant, which, in turn depends on} its pressure and temperature as well as its molecular weight (mol wt). Thus one can write:

CO₂ Conc. (ppm) =

)

(

)

(

.

.

10

/

3 2

3

2

m

volume

c

Atmospheri

g

CO

of

Mass

wt

mol

gm

CO

for

mole

litre

_×

μ

×

For CO₂, liter/mole = 22.4* and

gm mol weight = 44** Hence Eq. (1) becomes

CO₂ Conc. (ppm) =

)

(

10

.)

(

.

10

44

4

.

22

3 18 2

3

m

volume

c

Atmospheri

Mt

emitted

CO

of

Mass

×

×

×

=

)

(

.)

(

10

09

.

5

3 2 14

m

volume

c

Atmospheri

Mt

CO

of

Mass

×

×

...(A-3)