Trends in the International Shipping and Port Industries

(1)

Trends in the International

Shipping and Port Industries

Prof. Kevin

Prof. Kevin Cullinane

Cullinane

School of Marine Science and Technology

University of Newcastle

The International Transport System

Trade Forecast

Growth Rate = 2~3% p.a.

(2)

Growth of Container Trade

Bulk Growth Rate = 2% p.a.

Container Growth rate = 8% p.a.

Forecast Container Growth Rate = 6% p.a.

The China Factor

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year R m b ( b il li ons ) -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Pe rc e n ta g e

GDP at current prices Real annual growth rate (%)

CHINA

CHINA’

’S GDP GROWTH

S GDP GROWTH

CHINA

CHINA’

’S FDI INFLOWS

S FDI INFLOWS

CHINA

CHINA’

’S INTERNATIONAL TRADE

S INTERNATIONAL TRADE

CHINA

CHINA’

’S REAL GROWTH IN

S REAL GROWTH IN

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT

0 5 10 15 20 25 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Pe rc e n ta g e 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 Year U S $ B illio n s Contracted Utilised 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year U S $ b illio n Exports Imports

Major Trends in Container

Shipping

•

• Larger Containerships

Larger Containerships

–

Maintain load factors

–

Load

centring

/ Hub and spoke systems

•

• Increased concentration

Increased concentration

–

Alliances

–

M & A

•

• Vertical integration

Vertical integration

–

Dedicated terminals

–

(3)

Economies of Scale

Concentration and Cooperation

in Liner Shipping

Implications for Ports

•

• Greater Transhipment

Greater

Transhipment

and Hub Competition

–

Good location = mainlines + hubs

–

Mainlines + hubs =

transhipment

business

–

Transhipment

business = feeder services

–

Feeder services = mainlines + hubs

•

• Increased Buying Power of Shipping Lines

Increased Buying Power of Shipping Lines

•

• Globalisation

Globalisation

and Concentration of Terminal

Operators

•

(4)

4.69 (13)

5.78 (10)

6.70 Long Beach

7.18 (7)

7.32 (9)

7.50 Los Angeles

6.14 (9)

7.01 (8)

8.10 Hamburg

7.10 (8)

8.30 (7)

9.30 Rotterdam

8.84 (6)

9.71 (6)

9.47 Kaohsiung

10.40 (5)

11.50 (5)

11.84 Busan

10.60 (4)

13.66 (4)

16.20 Shenzhen

11.28 (3)

14.55 (3)

18.08 Shanghai

20.10 (1)

21.99 (1)

22.43 Hong Kong

18.10 (2)

21.34 (2)

23.20 Singapore

2003

2004

2005

Port

World Container Throughput

(Millions of

(Millions of TEUs

TEUs)

)

International Port Services – Saudi Arabia, Tanzania International Container Terminal Services Africa

Europe Container Terminals, DeCeTe Duisberger Containerterminal, Trimodal Container Terminal Belgium, Gdynia Container Terminal, Harwich International Port, Port of Felixstowe, Thamesport

Europe

Buenos Aires Container Terminal, Ensenada International Terminal, Freeport Container Port, Internacional de Contenedores Asociados de Veracruz, Panama Ports Company – Balboa, Panama Ports Company – Cristobal, Port of Lazaro Cardena, Terminal International de Manzanillo The Americas

Hutchison Korea Terminals, Jakarta Container Port, Karachi International Container Terminal, Korea International Terminals, Myanmar International Terminals Thilawa, Thai Laemchabang Terminal, KMT - Westport, Port Klang Other Asia

Hongkong International Terminals, Jiangmen International Container Terminals, Nanhai International Container Terminals, Ningbo Beilun International Container Terminals, Shanghai Container Terminals, Shanghai Pudong International Container Terminals, Shantou International Container Terminals, Xiamen International Container Terminals, Yantian International Container Terminals, Zhuhai International Container Terminals ( Gaolan ), Zhuhai International Container Terminals ( Jiuzhou )

China

Hutchinson Port Holdings

PSA International

•

• Singapore Terminals

Singapore Terminals

•

• Antwerp and

Antwerp and

Zeebrugge

ports in Belgium

•

• Hesse

Hesse

-

Noorde

Natie

in Rotterdam

•

• Voltri

Voltri

Terminal

Europa

(Genoa) and Venice Container

Terminal in Italy

•

• Muara

Muara

Container Terminal in Brunei

•

• Dalian

Dalian

,

Tianjin

,

Fuzhou

,

Dongguan

and Guangzhou

Container Terminals in China

•

• Tuticorin

Tuticorin

Container Terminal in India

•

• Incheon

Incheon

Container Terminal and

Busan

New Port in Korea

•

• Hibiki

Hibiki

Container Terminal in Japan

•

• Sines

Sines

Container Terminal in Portugal

•

• Laem

Laem

Chabang

Terminal, Thailand

•

(5)

•

• Continued trade growth

Continued trade growth

•

• Impact of China

Impact of China

’

s accession to the

WTO

–

Changes to customs procedures etc

–

Impact on FDI and trade

–

Port Law 2004

–

Opening up of port and logistics

market

A Return to the China Factor

•

• China will continue to grow and will lead

China will continue to grow and will lead

world trade

•

• Asia becomes even more of a focus for

Asia becomes even more of a focus for

container shipping industry

•

• In shipping, service rationalisation and the

In shipping, service rationalisation and the

deployment of large containerships will

continue in phases

•

• Hinterlands of load centre ports must

Hinterlands of load centre ports must

expand

•

• Mega-

Mega

-terminals will be further developed

terminals will be further developed

Corollary

Example

Example Megaport

Megaport

Yangshan

(6)

•

• Vertical integration of Independent port operators into the inla

Vertical integration of Independent port operators into the inla

nd

logistics market

•

• Traditional shipping lines will increasingly diversify into shor

Traditional shipping lines will increasingly diversify into shor

e

-

based

logistics

•

• This is supported by, and will contribute, to inland transport

This is supported by, and will contribute, to inland transport

infrastructure

investment and more efficient logistical systems

•

• Hinterlands increasingly overlap and ports compete for the same

Hinterlands increasingly overlap and ports compete for the same

cargo base

•

• Greater industrial concentration in shipping and in ports is a

Greater industrial concentration in shipping and in ports is a

complication, as is vertical integration into logistics and land

transport

•

• A further complication is the increasing role of 3PLs in port an

A further complication is the increasing role of 3PLs in port an

d

carrier choice

•

• A greater appreciation of the role of shipping and ports in

A greater appreciation of the role of shipping and ports in

international logistics and supply chains emerges

A New Logistics Perspective

•

• The price

The price

vs

Efficiency (quality of service) trade

-

-off for ports remains very important

off for ports remains very important

•

• Shipping lines face greater

Shipping lines face greater

regulation

•

• Shipping lines will provide an important source

Shipping lines will provide an important source

of competition for the dedicated port operator

•

• Facilitated by continuing port/terminal

Facilitated by continuing port/terminal

privatisation

•

• The role of a port as a planning instrument for

The role of a port as a planning instrument for

national or regional economic development has

been completely undermined

Conclusions

Thank

You