Premier League Predictor
2020-2021 2
ndQuarter Review
January 24, 2021
2020-2021 PLP 2nd Quarter Review
We have made it half way through the 2020-21 Premier League season! Without question, it has been a tough last 12 months. The Premier League has been a good escape from everything going on, and this game has been a fun distraction. We have had amazing competition so far this year! So far this season, we have had three different people hold the 1st place position, and we have had great parity among the chase pack. Sam V. has had a great last few weeks of the season and has pulled into 1st place. However, we have never had a closer grouping in the standings at this point in the season. I don’t doubt that the second half of the PLP season will be more exciting than the first. I expect more changes in the leaderboard and a variety of champions to be announced in the remaining competitions. Here are the PLP Standings after the first 19 weeks of the season:
Last year after Week 19, our leader had 4,424 points on 111 correct picks. Sam V. has maximized his strategy of picking more “upsets” or higher-point picks to grab the top spot in the standings for the 2020-21 season. He is topping last season’s pace with 4,854 points after Week 19, and he has done so on only 86 correct picks! It will be interesting to see if he can keep up his success on this strategy for the remainder of the season!
It is also pretty cool to look at the close grouping that we have forming in the middle of the standings. The difference from 3rd place to 8th place is only 473 points! We have seen some amazing one-week scores, and it just shows that a player can jump multiple spots by just putting together a string of a couple good scores in a row. With 19 weeks remaining, I think we are in for some movement and some surprises in the standings. Since our last review, Sam V., Martin B., and Jared G. have all made impressive gains and it has shown as they have climbed up the table. Here is the PLP Week-by-Week Standings Graph after 19 weeks of the season:
PLP Holiday Tournament
We awarded our first prizes of the 2020-21 Premier League Predictor season in Week 17 after Sam V. defeated Alex O. for the PLP Holiday Tournament championship. Sam put together an amazing eight weeks to win the championship from the 6-seed position. Alex O. also made a great run, beginning the tournament as the 12-seed and beating the 5, 4, and 1 seed before coming up just short in the finals. Sam put up some amazing scores on the way to the Holiday Tournament title. He averaged 291 points per week during the tournament, and put up scores of 503, 742, 510, and 572 in the four rounds. It was simply a great performance by Sam over the past couple of months. Sam took home $60 for the Holiday Tournament championship, and Alex took home $20 as runner up. Here is the final 2020-21 Holiday Tournament bracket: The competitions continue as we move into the second half of the season! The PLP Cup continues in Week 21, and the champion will be crowned in week 27 or 28. And then, just like that, we start the PLP End of Season Playoffs in week 31. Throughout all of this, the regular season champion will still be crowned and will take home the biggest prize of the competition in week 38.
Premier League Table
After the first 19 weeks we have had 184 total matches played and at least six Covid postponements. Here is the current Premier League Table:
I think we can expect further cancellations due to Covid. I will try to keep everything as up to date as possible, but we will need to be flexible to account for cancelled matches and a schedule that is always changing.
We have just made it through the daunting “Festive Fixtures” period in the Premier League where the teams are forced to play an absurd amount of matches in the short period of time between the Thanksgiving and New Years holidays. This season, the schedule does not ease up on the different clubs. Due to the delayed 2019-20 season, the Premier League schedule is as condensed as ever. Premier League clubs, especially those who are competing in European competitions and who are advancing in domestic cup competitions are playing a ton of matches over the next couple of months. As I stated in the last review, our Premier League champion this season is going to be the club who can stay fit and healthy for the entire season. With this onslaught of matches, I think that it is never been more helpful to look at recent form of the club to help make picks. Here is the Premier League “form table” over the past eight matchweeks: It’s no surprise that the two Manchester clubs are showing the best form over the past couple of months. United and City have been in amazing form lately and have been playing great football. Liverpool, Chelsea, and Spurs have struggled somewhat after all three clubs spent time towards the top of the table. Arsenal, Everton, and Leicester City have also shown some resurgence over the past few weeks.
After 19 weeks of the season, there is still an uptick in away wins compared to last season’s results. We actually did see an increase in home wins when fans were allowed in stadiums across England, but with the recent shutdown we are back to having empty stadiums. It appears still that the absence of fans does have an impact on home field advantage. Here is the difference in expected home wins, away wins, and draws compared to last season: My (subjective) 1st Quarter Premier League Awards Match of the 2nd Quarter: Chelsea: 1, Manchester City: 3 (Week 17) I had trouble picking the best match of the past few weeks. I may have forgotten the most exciting match, but I felt that this match was one of the most important matches of the 2nd Quarter. Manchester City have been unstoppable lately, and they dominated Chelsea in this match and they looked like title favorites. This match also highlighted Chelsea’s recent struggles, and the club never looked like they stood a chance against Pep’s team. This seemed like City’s announcement to the league that they were back and were ready to push for a title challenge during the second half of the season. Check out the highlights here: https://youtu.be/TYCAq6M97Go Upset of the 2nd Quarter: Liverpool: 0, Burnley: 1 (Week 18) I hate to do this to Liverpool once again, but the upset of the 2nd Quarter must be Burnley grabbing all three points at Anfield. Burnley did what 69 teams could not do before them, beating Liverpool at home and breaking the second longest home-unbeaten streak in Premier League history.
Check out the highlights here: https://youtu.be/3E2xXhQgGms
Team of the 2nd Quarter: Manchester United
Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 8 Premier League matches, winning 5 and drawing 3. They are playing great football and it is no surprise that they currently sit atop the league standings!
Surprise Team of the 2nd Quarter: Leicester City Leicester City somehow have stayed under the radar this entire season, but they currently sit in a Champions League spot and have a realistic chance to fight for the title in the second half of the season. It will be interesting to see if they can keep up this form, but over the last eight weeks the Foxes have five wins, two draws, and only one loss. Manager of the 2nd Quarter: Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (Manchester United) It seems that whenever you start to hear murmurs about Ole Gunnar Solskjaer losing his job at Manchester United, he finds a way to lead his team on a run of positive results. After a number of different periods where it seemed like Ole was barely holding on to his job, he has led United to the top of the Premier League table! Pogba is back to playing great football at times, and Bruno Fernandes is an amazing player to watch.
Player of the 2nd Quarter: Bruno Fernandes Matches: 19, Goals: 11, Assists: 8
Speaking of Bruno Fernandes, he has been on fire lately. He won the Premier League Player of the Month in November and December, and he continues to play amazing football. His ability to score free-kicks is incredible and was won matches for Manchester United.
3rd Quarter Outlook
The Premier League schedule does not slow down as we head into the 3rd quarter of the season. We will continue to push towards the end of the season swiftly as the Premier League tries to complete the 2020-21 during the Covid-19 pandemic. As we move into the second half of the season, it will be interesting to see how the teams manage player fitness, player health, and player rest as the onslaught of matches continue all while the UK is in the midst of another shutdown. It will also be interesting to see if Manchester United and Manchester City can keep their form, and whether Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs can make a resurgence after falling slightly behind the two Manchester clubs.
Will some of the non “Top 6” clubs make a fight for the title or at least the Champions League spots? Leicester City, Everton, Southampton, West Ham, and Aston Villa all seem like they have some fight left in them for the second half of the season. And will Arsenal be able to bounce back and advance into the top half of the table? They have looked a lot stronger lately.
Will the bottom-dwelling clubs be able to hold their own against the league leaders during the cold winter months? It seems like we have seen more parity this season than ever before.
Here are some of the matches that I wanted to highlight over the next 10 weeks: Week 20: Chelsea v Wolves Everton v Leicester City Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Week 21: Arsenal v Manchester United Southampton v Aston Villa West Ham United v Liverpool Week 22: Wolves v Arsenal Manchester United v Southampton Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Week 23: Aston Villa v Arsenal Liverpool v Manchester City Manchester United v Everton Week 24: Leicester City v Liverpool Southampton v Wolves Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Week 25: Liverpool v Everton Aston Villa v Leicester City Arsenal v Manchester City Week 26: Manchester City v West Ham United Leicester City v Arsenal Chelsea v Manchester United Everton v Southampton Week 27: Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace Chelsea v Everton Manchester City v Manchester United Week 28: Manchester United v West Ham United Wolves v Liverpool Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Week 29: Liverpool v Chelsea Burnley v Leicester City Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton
Conclusion This wraps up the PLP 2nd Quarter Review! Hopefully it provides some insight on the season so far and hopefully it provides some new information that helps you make picks during the 3rd Quarter of the season and on. I wanted to say thanks to everyone for the participation so far this year! We have had the fewest “missed picks” so far this year, and that has made the competition better than ever before. I hope that the competition continues as strong in the 2nd half of the season, and I am excited to pass out the different prizes to many different champions as the season continues on.
Once again, if the Premier League season is postponed or delayed due to the coronavirus, we will plan to postpone the PLP season to correspond with the Premier League season. This happened last season and we made it through to the end. If there are cancellations or something more extreme, we will have to figure out what we are doing at that time. But for now we continue on. As always, let me know if you have any questions or suggestions to make the game better. Thanks for your participation so far this season, and good luck! -Tyler