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August 2014
Volume CXVI Issue No. 1388 JoinISJ in our
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JOURNAL
INTERNATIONAL
544
International Sugar Journal |August 2014EXTRACT THE BEST
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Automation systems are hackable – how good
are the safeguards in the industry?
Editorial Comment
O
ne of the major noticeable changes in the sugar industry over the past decade or so has been the increase in uptake of automation systems. Not that this was necessarily forced upon the industry, rather the ready benefits in terms productivity gains and profitability accruing from installing equip-ment supporting various processes have been the main driver. The march of technological progress, particularly in the information communication technologies has been quite strident. Today, for example, online col-orimeters provide feedback in realtime on the performance of centrifugals via quality of sugar. Defect in quality can be addressed with speed and control that was simply not possible with previous laboratory analysis. While obsoles-cence management is an issue that can be easily addressed, that of loss of industrial control through virus infection is a serious one. The question that goes begging is how secure are systems in place in sugar factories?It is worth looking at how Stuxnet virus was introduced to the Iranian nuclear facility at Nantaz1. Facility of this magnitude and importance clearly had substantial firewalls to check direct infiltration. In fact, it had “15 firewalls, three data diodes, and an intrusion detection system.” Cleverly, “the attackers acted indirectly by infecting soft targets with legitimate access to ground zero: contractors.” As it has transpired, both the contractors and in particular the enrichment facility, had fairly lax cybersecurity protections. “Getting the malware on the contractors’ mobile devices and USB sticks proved good enough, as sooner or later they physically carried those on-site and connected them to Natanz’s most critical systems, unchallenged by any guards.”
Stuxnet attack routine was to change the speed of rotors in a centrifuge used to enrich uranium. The malware increased the speed by one third of IR-I centrifuges from 63,000 rpm to 84,600 rpm for 15 minutes. “The next consecutive run brought all centrifuges in the cascade basically to a stop (120 rpm), only to speed them up again, taking a total of 50 minutes.” The central purpose of the attack was not to destroy the centrifuges, which could have been easily replaced from stock following a mass attack, but rather “choke” them to keep the operators and engineers guessing. This strategy delayed Iranian nuclear programme by two years.
One of the clever aspects of Stuxnet malware was how well it was able to manipulate the cascade protection system built by the Iranians that allows the enrichment process to keep going, even when centrifuges are breaking down. Stuxnet hid its tracks by recording “the cascade protection system’s sensor values for a period of 21 seconds. Then it replays those 21 seconds in a constant loop during the execution of the attack. In the control room, all appears to be normal, both to human operators and any software-implemented alarm routines.” The failure of operators working at the plant to notice changing sounds from increase in speed of rotors and subsequent drop in speed (from 84,600 to 120 rpm) is remarkable.
While it is unlikely that a sugar plant will become a focus of dedicated attack from a highly sophisticated malware such as Stuxnet in the foreseeable future, potential vulnerability of modern sugar plants from malware cannot be ruled out. Digital sabotage is the ugly flip side of the technological advance in the sector. With consolidation in the industry, with many companies breaching the one million tonnes mark and owning more than few factories in geographically dispersed locations any weak links in the system can spread malware through local networks. It is apparent that cybersecurity measures will have to embrace unwitting introduction of malware from inexperienced and careless operators. Can any sugar plant raise its hand and say it has robust measures in place that are constantly tested and audited?
Arvind Chudasama
Reference
Ralph Langner (2013) Stuxnet's secret twin. Foreign Policy
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/11/19/stuxnets_secret_twin_iran_nukes_cyber_attack?page=full
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All technical articles have been approved by our panel of distinguished referees. Other editorial material, including abstracts, appear at the discretion of the Editor. ISSN 0020-8841
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Panel of Referees
L. Jean Claude Autrey PhD, DSc, CBiol, FIBiol, Former Director,
Mauritius Sugar Industry Research Institute, Mauritius.
M. Asadi PhD, Former Director of Research at Monitor (now Michigan)
Sugar Company, USA.
L.S.M. Bento BSc, PhD, Formerly Audubon Sugar Institute, USA.
L. Bichara Rocha PhD, Senior Economist, International Sugar Organisation, UK. J.C. Comstock PhD, Research Leader, USDA-ARS-SAA, Canal Point, Florida, USA. L. Corcodel PhD, Head of Sugar Processing and Industrials Innovations, eRcane,
Reunion, France.
S. Davis MSc, Head: Processing Division, Sugar Milling Research Institute,
South Africa.
D. Day PhD, Audubon Sugar Institute, USA.
S.J. Edmé PhD, Research Geneticist, USDA-ARS Sugarcane Field Station,
Florida, USA.
G. Eggleston PhD, Lead Scientist, SRRC-ARS-USDA, USA.
C. Garson MEngSc, BE (Mech), Bundaberg Walkers Engineering Ltd, Australia. M.A. Godshall BSc, MSc, Formerly Managing Director, SPRI, USA.
D.K. Goel BEng (Mech), Executive Vice President, ISGEC John Thompson, India. M. Inkson CEng, PhD, MIChemE, FEI Director, Sugar Knowledge International, UK. P. Jackson PhD, CSIRO Plant Industry, Australia.
G.L. James PhD, DIC, CBiol, FIBiol, Retired Technical Adviser - Agronomy. T. Johnson BS, MS, Chief Chemist and Manager of Quality Control,
Sugarcane Growers Cooperative of Florida, USA.
L. Jolly BAgricEcon(Hons), Senior Economist, International Sugar Organisation, UK. J. Joyce BEChem, MBA, Sugar Process Consultant,
James Joyce & Associates, Australia.
C.A. Kimbeng PhD, Asst Prof, Dept of Agronomy and Environmental
Management, Louisiana State University, USA.
M. Krishnamurthi PhD, Chief Executive, Sadhana Agritech Services and
Consultancies Private Ltd, Bangalore, India.
V. Kochergin PhD, PE Amalgamated Research LLC, USA. G.W. Leslie MSc, Entomologist, SASRI, South Africa.
P. Malein BA, MA, former Head of Agriculture, Booker Tate Ltd, UK. J.A. Mariotti PhD, former Director, Tucumán Experiment Station, Argentina. B. Muir PhD, British Sugar, UK.
H.A. Naqvi MSc, Technical Consultant, Sanghar Sugar Mills Ltd, Sanghar, Pakistan. D. Nixon PhD, Agriculturist, Booker Tate Ltd, UK.
Y-B. Pan PhD, Research Plant Molecular Geneticist, Houma, Louisiana, USA. C. Rhoten BSc, Manager of Process Technology,
The Almagamated Sugar Company, USA.
M. Saska PhD, Investigador Visitante, EEAOC-Tucuman-Argentina.
G. Shannon BAppSc, Extension Leader - North BSES Limited, Qld, Australia. F.M. Steele PhD, Assistant Professor of Food Microbiology,
Brigham Young University, USA.
P. Stevanato PhD, University of Padova, Italy.
M. Suhr CEng, BS President, MS Processes Intl, LLC, USA.
L M Talwar BSc Executive Director, Isgec Heavy Engineering Ltd., India. J. Torres PhD, Director Agronomy Program, CENICANA, Colombia. R.P. Viator PhD, Research Plant Physiologist, Houma, Louisiana, USA.
D. Weekes BSc, CEng, MlAgrE, Senior Agricultural Engineer, Booker Tate Ltd, UK. W. Weiss Manager, Sugars International, USA.
A. Wienese MScEng(Mech), Consultant, ‘Sugarwise’.
M.S. Wright PhD Research Microbiologist, USDA-ARS-SRRC, USA. S. Zhang PhD, Institute of Tropical Bioscience and Biotechnology,
sugar
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International Sugar Journal |August 2014Monthly Snapshot
August
Market Overview
Over the past three months, sugar prices have been in the range USc 16.5 -18.5/lb as global surplus continues to decline on the back of reduced output. According to the latest estimate from FO Licht, world sugar production in 2013/14 is at 181.1 mln tonnes, compared with 184.6 mln tonnes last year. In their latest reports Czarnikow and Rabobank look to 2014/15 - the former notes a rebound in beet sugar production from 35.1 million tonnes raw value (mtrv) to 36.3 mtrv, while cane sugar production is forecast to decline from 148.8 mtrv to 147.9 mtrv. Both Cazarnikow and Rabobank indicate deficits of some 0.5 mln and 0.9 mtrv next year, respectively.
Brazil – drought has had impact in the current season in some regions of Sao Paulo, the main sugar producing state. Czarnikow puts 2014/15 sugar production at 32.9 mtrv compared with 34.3 mtrv in 2013/14.
India – with the cyclical production now becoming a feature of the past, over 26 mtrv sugar was produced in 2013/14, which Czarnikow forecasts may increase to 27.9 mtrv next year. This maybe, as Rabobank suggests due to Indian government extending the subsidy of INR 3.33/kg (USD 54/tonne) for exports of up to 4 mtrv sugar over the next two years until September 2014, at the same time increasing import duty on sugar from 15% to 40%.
China – 2013/14 sugar production was 13.8 mtrv. It could have been more if it wasn’t for the beet sugar production being down by 31% at 811,000 tonnes raw value. Czarnikow forecasts 2014/15 production to decline further to 13.2 mtrv, but consumption is estimated to grow by 4% to 17.6 mtrv.
Indonesia – 2014/15 sugar production is estimated to be 2.6 mtrv with no significant expansion in acreage. Government is expected to issue import licenses to refiners amounting 3.2 mtrv.
Thailand – a record 12.1 mtrv sugar was produced in 2013/14. This is likely to increase to 12.8 mtrv in 2014/15 according to Czarnikow. Compared with rice and cassava, sugarcane continues to be a profitable crop for farmers.
EU – 2014/15 sugar production is forecast at 17.7 mtrv, up by almost 5% on last year as producers battle for market share ahead of the abolition of quotas in 2017.
US – Sugar production is anticipated to decline 5.5% to 7.7 mtrv compared with last year.
F.O.Licht's International Sugar and Sweetener Report
Vol. 146, No. 18 / 16.06.2014
2014 F.O.Licht GmbH 313Output in the European Union fell to 16.8 mln tonnes in 2013/14 – 0.4 mln above our February guidance but still down from 17.4 mln a year ago. Sugar supply in the EU is currently ample and the Commission has there-fore skipped plans mulled earlier in the year for a new round of tenders for imports at reduced duties and the conversion of out-of-quota sugar into quota sugar. In fact, supply is so ample and prices have fallen that sharply that 325,054 tonnes out of Brazil’s CXL import quota (totaling 334,054 tonnes) for 2013/14 (Oct/Sep) are still unused as nobody dares taking the risk to end up with sugar that cannot be sold on to a customer.
As already pointed out before F.O. Licht does not include the sugar equivalent of beet that were not pro-cessed into the end product crystal sugar (such as those used for fuel ethanol or biogas) in its sugar pro-duction estimates, which differs from the approach used by the bloc's sugar associations and official EU statis-tics.
Our estimate for Russia and
Ukraine remain unchanged from our
February guidance as the campaigns
had already been concluded at the time and the results were known.
Russia's 2013/14 beet sugar output
declined to 4.8 mln tonnes from 5.1 mln a year earlier, while Ukraine produced only 1.4 mln tonnes of sugar in 2013/14 compared with the previous year's 2.3 mln. Surplus stocks in the country have been re-duced sharply and area for 2014/15 has recovered somewhat. Turkey's sugar production rose by 0.2 mln
tonnes on the year to nearly 2.6 mln on high beet yields and sugar con-tent, which represents an upward revision of our February estimate of 2.4 mln.
Africa
African sugar production is now seen up at 12.1 mln tonnes in 2013/14 from 11.3 mln in 2012/13 - representing an upward revision of 47,000 tonnes from our previous forecast.
The y-o-y increase is mainly driven by a recovery in South Africa as well as capacity expansion in Ethiopia and Sudan.
It may be pointed that sugar pro-duction in the southern hemisphere producers of the continent (such as South Africa, Swaziland, Zimbabwe, Zambia etc.) on an Oct/Sep basis cuts across two local crop years. In the continent's top producer South
Afri-ca, for example, the local 2013/14
crushing season lasted from April 2013 to January 2014, of which only the sugar produced from October 1, 2013 onwards belongs to the coun-try's output for the purpose of this
Quarterly World Sugar Balance (1000 tonnes, raw value)
Oct/Dec Jan/Mar Apr/Jun Jul/Sep 2013 2012 2011 2014 2013 2012 2014 2013 2012 2014 2013 2012 Opening stocks 72,992 64,678 58,614 93,492 90,889 80,157 111,314 107,744 96,014 92,624 88,075 77,074 Output 63,069 69,330 63,325 60,478 59,304 56,410 25,362 24,370 21,880 32,291 31,593 33,308 Imports 16,486 16,723 15,195 15,025 14,665 13,290 14,459 15,508 14,769 15,332 16,307 16,386 Consumption * 43,391 42,721 41,455 42,188 41,467 40,460 43,542 42,683 41,597 46,456 45,539 44,606 Exports 15,664 17,121 15,522 15,493 15,646 13,384 14,970 16,865 13,992 17,708 17,445 17,485 Ending stocks 93,492 90,889 80,157 111,314 107,744 96,014 92,624 88,075 77,074 76,083 72,992 64,678 * Residual of the balance
World Sugar Balance
Oct/Sep (1,000 tonnes, raw value)
Sugar 2013/14 2012/13 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10 Opening stocks 72,991.9 64,677.7 58,614.3 56,970.0 60,363.3 Production 181,200.1 184,596.8 174,924.6 165,524.5 159,026.7 Imports 61,302.2 63,202.8 59,640.6 59,612.7 62,357.3 Consumption 175,577.4 172,408.9 168,117.9 162,443.3 162,027.4 Exports 63,834.1 67,076.6 60,383.9 61,049.7 62,749.9 Ending stocks 76,082.7 72,991.9 64,677.7 58,614.3 56,970.0 +/-Production -3,396.7 9,672.2 9,400.1 6,497.8 7,198.6 +/-% -1.84 5.53 5.68 4.09 4.74 +/-Consumption 3,168.5 4,291.0 5,674.6 415.9 341.9 +/-% 1.84 2.55 3.49 0.26 0.21 Stocks in % of consumption 43.33 42.34 38.47 36.08 35.16 Global surplus/deficit 3,090.8 8,314.2 6,063.4 1,644.3 -3,393.3 Note: May not add due to roundings; consumption excluding unrecorded disappearance
120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 20 03 /0 4 20 04 /0 5 20 05 /0 6 20 06 /0 7 20 07 /0 8 20 08 /0 9 20 09 /1 0 20 10 /1 1 20 11 /1 2 20 12 /1 3 20 13 /1 4 Ending Stocks Consumption Production Stocks Prod/Cons
World Sugar Balance (mln tonnes, raw value)
F.O. Licht
Bearish sentiment continues to prevail in the market on the back of ample supplies
from Brazil and Central America. The July delivery futures ended 17.04 cents/lb
while the October ended at 17.85 cents/lb. London white futures for August contract
was $465.20/tonne while the October was $473.90/tonne.
According to India Meteorological Department, monsoon rains were 48% lower in
early June, and expects below average rainfall in 2014. It dismissed the emerging
impact of El Niňo weather phenomenon.
By the second week of June, 117.50 million tonnes of cane was crushed in Brazil.
This was practically unchanged from last year. Sugar production is down from last
year to 5.439 million tonnes compared with 5.641 million tonnes, as is ethanol
output, 4.838 billion litres compared with 4.876 billion litres.
With current campaign in Mexico coming to end in mid-July, the output is forecast to
reach 5.891 million tonnes compared with 6.811 million tonnes.
China’s campaign ended in May with total output rising to 13.318 million tonnes,
white value, up 1.9% from last year's 13.068 million tonnes. Cane sugar production
rose 4.9% to 12,571,700 tonnes from 11,983,400 a year ago, while beet sugar
output declined sharply to 746,300 tonnes from 1,085,000.
According to FO Licht, sugar production estimate for India this year is marginally
higher than last year (26.3 million vs 26.0 million tonnes). While the issue of cane
payment arrears persists, farmers continue with growing cane as it is more profitable
than others.
The 2014/15 (Nov/Oct) sugar output in Thailand is expected to climb to 12 million
tonnes, up by 6.3% from last year, according to the Thai Sugar Millers Corp, from
110 million tonnes cane. Exports in 2015 is expected to increase to 9 million tonnes
from 8 million tonnes last year.
In Queensland, Australia, unseasonally wet and cold weather at the start of the
campaign has delayed harvesting – some 100 mm precipitation was received during
the first week of June.
Consumption growth in industrialised countries is expected to be 0.8% while that in
developing countries is 2%, notes FO Licht. In emerging and developing economies -
where sugar consumption growth tends to be highest - growth is projected to pick up
gradually from 4.7% in 2013 to about 4.9% in 2014 and 5.3% in 2015.In China,
growth is projected to drop fractionally from 7.7% in 2012 and 2013 to about 7.5% in
F.O.Licht's International Sugar and Sweetener Report
Argentina and Peru, but there have
been no noteworthy adjustments from our previous forecast.
Asia
Asian sugar production is forecast to rise by 1.4 mln tonnes year-on-year to 68.6 mln, which is 0.6 mln above our February guidance. The upward revision is almost exclusively due to higher-than-expected output in Indonesia (+0.5 mln tonnes), with output in Thailand, India, and Pakistan coming in within striking distance of our previous projections.
We have increased our sugar production estimate for India marginally to 26.3 mln tonnes from 26.0 mln as the crushing season has come to an end in almost all states. There is a special season for the mills in Tamil Nadu and some of the mills in South Karnataka in August-September 2014, which is the reason why the numbers for the country cannot be finalized yet. While Indian production has been falling modestly for the past two years since reaching 28.6 mln tonnes in 2011/12, the country’s output exceeded domestic
consumption for the fourth
consecutive season in 2013/14. Also, output in 2014/15 can be expected to come in at a similar level as farmers are sticking with cane despite the industry’s critical financial situation and mounting arrears as cane prices look so attractive compared to other crops. The country is therefore likely to remain self-sufficient in 2014/15
for the fifth consecutive season though the 2013/14 crop was the smallest since 2009/10.
China's sugar production rose
slightly to 14.5 mln tonnes in 2013/14 from 14.2 mln the year before, with output falling short of our previous forecast by just 0.2 mln tonnes. While the area under cultivation was down slightly, better weather allowed for the increase in production. Production in 2014/15 is likely to be lower as the industry is operating in the red and cane price arrears have piled up, which together with falling cane prices enticed farmers to switch to other crops.
Thailand produced 11.6 mln tonnes
of sugar in 2013/14, just fractionally below our February forecast of 11.7 mln and up considerably from the previous year’s 10.3 mln tonnes. It is self-understood that this volume represented a new record as crushing was aided by dry conditions and high sugar content. Farmers have been sticking to cane due to high cane prices aided by government sops.
Elsewhere, production in Indonesia is now seen up at 3.1 mln tonnes in 2013/14 from 2.8 mln a year ago due to conducive weather for the local 2014 crush (of which all produced by the end of September belongs to our 2013/14 balance year). Production in the Philippines is now seen higher than in February with the final total estimated at 2.4 mln tonnes compared with 2.3 mln three months ago but still somewhat below the nearly 2.5 mln tonnes produced in 2012/13.
Oceania
The sugar production estimate for Oceania has been left unchanged at February’s 4.6 mln tonnes, which would be down somewhat from 5.0 mln last year.
Australia's sugar production is
seen falling to 4.4 mln tonnes in 2013/14 from 4.8 mln a year earlier. Harvesting in Australia has started earlier in June, with large-scale processing taking place from July
onwards to October before
production volumes drop off
significantly up to the end of the calendar year. The number for 2013/14 therefore includes the tail end of last year's crush and the better part of the current 2014 crush, which is seen somewhat affected by a mid-April cyclone.
Sugar production in
developing countries
remains near record high
Sugar production in industrialised
countries has resumed a downward
trend and is seen reaching 40.0 mln tonnes in 2013/14, above our February estimate of 39.7 mln but still down significantly from 42.5
World Sugar Production by Regions Oct/Sep (1,000 tonnes, raw value)
2013/14 2012/13 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10 EU 16,804 17,445 19,062 15,892 17,518 Europe 27,132 28,676 30,942 24,776 26,463 Africa 12,074 11,267 10,356 10,336 10,178 N. & C. America 22,439 23,709 20,490 18,860 18,856 South America 46,322 48,701 43,024 46,216 48,721 Asia 68,619 67,217 66,293 61,388 51,109 Oceania 4,615 5,028 3,820 3,949 3,700 Total 181,200 184,597 174,925 165,525 159,027 Note: May not add due to roundings
100 120 140 160 180
World Sugar Consumption
(mln tonnes, raw value)Source: Czarnikow
2014/15 balance sheet – consumption exceeding production
Source: Czarnikow Source: Czarnikow
2014/15 balance sheet – consumption exceeding production
Source: Czarnikow
Source: Czarnikow Source: FO Licht
Indian swing cycle suspended over the last few years
2014/15 balance sheet – consumption exceeding production
Monthly Snapshot August‘14
World production estimates of cane and beet
Source: Czarnikow
F.O.Licht's International Sugar and Sweetener Report
Vol. 146, No. 18 / 16.06.2014
2014 F.O.Licht GmbH
313
Output in the European Union fell
to 16.8 mln tonnes in 2013/14 – 0.4
mln above our February guidance but
still down from 17.4 mln a year ago.
Sugar supply in the EU is currently
ample and the Commission has
there-fore skipped plans mulled earlier in
the year for a new round of tenders
for imports at reduced duties and the
conversion of out-of-quota sugar into
quota sugar. In fact, supply is so
ample and prices have fallen that
sharply that 325,054 tonnes out of
Brazil’s CXL import quota (totaling
334,054 tonnes) for 2013/14
(Oct/Sep) are still unused as nobody
dares taking the risk to end up with
sugar that cannot be sold on to a
customer.
As already pointed out before F.O.
Licht does not include the sugar
equivalent of beet that were not
pro-cessed into the end product crystal
sugar (such as those used for fuel
ethanol or biogas) in its sugar
pro-duction estimates, which differs from
the approach used by the bloc's sugar
associations and official EU
statis-tics.
Our estimate for Russia and
Ukraine remain unchanged from our
February guidance as the campaigns
had already been concluded at the
time and the results were known.
Russia's 2013/14 beet sugar output
declined to 4.8 mln tonnes from 5.1
mln a year earlier, while Ukraine
produced only 1.4 mln tonnes of
sugar in 2013/14 compared with the
previous year's 2.3 mln. Surplus
stocks in the country have been
re-duced sharply and area for 2014/15
has recovered somewhat. Turkey's
sugar production rose by 0.2 mln
tonnes on the year to nearly 2.6 mln
on high beet yields and sugar
con-tent, which represents an upward
revision of our February estimate of
2.4 mln.
Africa
African sugar production is now
seen up at 12.1 mln tonnes in
2013/14 from 11.3 mln in 2012/13 -
representing an upward revision of
47,000 tonnes from our previous
forecast.
The y-o-y increase is mainly driven
by a recovery in South Africa as well
as capacity expansion in Ethiopia and
Sudan.
It may be pointed that sugar
pro-duction in the southern hemisphere
producers of the continent (such as
South Africa, Swaziland, Zimbabwe,
Zambia etc.) on an Oct/Sep basis cuts
across two local crop years. In the
continent's top producer South
Afri-ca, for example, the local 2013/14
crushing season lasted from April
2013 to January 2014, of which only
the sugar produced from October 1,
2013 onwards belongs to the
coun-try's output for the purpose of this
Quarterly World Sugar Balance (1000 tonnes, raw value)
Oct/Dec Jan/Mar Apr/Jun Jul/Sep
2013 2012 2011 2014 2013 2012 2014 2013 2012 2014 2013 2012 Opening stocks 72,992 64,678 58,614 93,492 90,889 80,157 111,314 107,744 96,014 92,624 88,075 77,074 Output 63,069 69,330 63,325 60,478 59,304 56,410 25,362 24,370 21,880 32,291 31,593 33,308 Imports 16,486 16,723 15,195 15,025 14,665 13,290 14,459 15,508 14,769 15,332 16,307 16,386 Consumption * 43,391 42,721 41,455 42,188 41,467 40,460 43,542 42,683 41,597 46,456 45,539 44,606 Exports 15,664 17,121 15,522 15,493 15,646 13,384 14,970 16,865 13,992 17,708 17,445 17,485 Ending stocks 93,492 90,889 80,157 111,314 107,744 96,014 92,624 88,075 77,074 76,083 72,992 64,678 * Residual of the balance
World Sugar Balance
Oct/Sep (1,000 tonnes, raw value)
Sugar 2013/14 2012/13 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10 Opening stocks 72,991.9 64,677.7 58,614.3 56,970.0 60,363.3 Production 181,200.1 184,596.8 174,924.6 165,524.5 159,026.7 Imports 61,302.2 63,202.8 59,640.6 59,612.7 62,357.3 Consumption 175,577.4 172,408.9 168,117.9 162,443.3 162,027.4 Exports 63,834.1 67,076.6 60,383.9 61,049.7 62,749.9 Ending stocks 76,082.7 72,991.9 64,677.7 58,614.3 56,970.0 +/-Production -3,396.7 9,672.2 9,400.1 6,497.8 7,198.6 +/-% -1.84 5.53 5.68 4.09 4.74 +/-Consumption 3,168.5 4,291.0 5,674.6 415.9 341.9 +/-% 1.84 2.55 3.49 0.26 0.21 Stocks in % of consumption 43.33 42.34 38.47 36.08 35.16 Global surplus/deficit 3,090.8 8,314.2 6,063.4 1,644.3 -3,393.3 Note: May not add due to roundings; consumption excluding unrecorded disappearance
120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 20 03 /0 4 20 04 /0 5 20 05 /0 6 20 06 /0 7 20 07 /0 8 20 08 /0 9 20 09 /1 0 20 10 /1 1 20 11 /1 2 20 12 /1 3 20 13 /1 4 Ending Stocks Consumption Production Stocks Prod/Cons
World Sugar Balance
(mln tonnes, raw value)
F.O. Licht
Source: FO Licht
World production estimates of cane and beet
Source: Czarnikow
7
www.internationalsugarjournal.com
Sugar
Industry News
For the latest sugar
industry news visit
www.internationalsugarjournal.com
sugar
JOURNALINTERNATIONAL
Thailand – Khonburi sugar to spend
US$133.3 million on sugar and ethanol
plant
T
hailand’s Khonburi Sugar (KBS) will spend 4.3 billion baht (US$133.3 million) this year and next to expand sugar production capacity and build an ethanol plant Nakhon Ratchasima province.a Smart Eye
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*Performance limitations differ from one application to the other,
Australia – Demise of the marketing body
QSL in sight as Wilmar, MSF and COFCO
decide to go it alone
T
he Australian unit of Chinese agribusiness COFCO Corp which owns Tully Sugar has joined Wilmar and MSF to stop selling sugar through the industry-owned marketing body Queensland Sugar Limited (QSL) from 2017.Sugar Industry News
British Sugar actively encouraging female
engineering graduates to join the company
W
omen engineering graduates recently got the chance to learn about opportunities in the beet sugar industry at anevent organised by British Sugar.
Austrian researchers produce erythritol
from straw
R
esearchers at the Vienna’s University of Technology have been successful in producing the sugar alcohol erythritol from cereal straw and mould fungi Trichoderma reesei. Up until now, erythritol could only be produced with the help of special kinds of yeast in highly concentrated molasses.9
www.internationalsugarjournal.com
France - 2014/15
beet yield hitting
fresh record
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F
rench sugar beet yields this year could be among the highest on record thanks to timely spring rains, which boosted most seedlings in early growth stages, Yves Belegaud, director for the country's top sugar maker Tereos told Reuters.E
thiopia expects seven of the 10 sugar factories the government plans to develop in the first phase of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) to start operating by end of 2015, according to the country’s sugar body reports UKRAgroConsult.Ethiopia - Seven
new sugar
factories to start
production in
Sugar Industry News
'Land grabbing' has the potential to
expand cane production by 148%
Vietnam - 2013/14 sugar output seen at 1.59
mln t
C
rops grown on "land-grabbed" areas in developing countries could have the potential to feed an extra 100 million people worldwide, a new study has shown.T
he 2013/2014 campaign in Vietnam has ended, with output reaching 1.7 mln tonnes of sugar, white value, including 1.59 mln from cane and the rest from refining raw sugar, the Vietnam Economic Times reported.Russia - Sucden plans U$100 mln
investment to expand beet sugar output
S
ucden plans to invest $100 mln expanding its Russian sugar beet production to meet growing demand, its local11
www.internationalsugarjournal.com
Anton Paar® GmbH [email protected] www.anton-paar.com
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4 Automated analysis of raw, intermediate and final products in sugar manufacturing
4 For: Sugar content (%Pol), dry substance (°Brix), apparent purity
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ISJ_Sucrolyzer_.indd 1 14.07.14 14:49
Fiji – Prison inmates exploited to harvest
sugar cane
I
nmates from the Fiji Corrections Service were used during the last cane campaign. They earned about FJD$200,000 (US$109,000) from harvesting sugar cane last year, according to the Fiji Times online.Sugar Industry News
N
ational Energy Commission (CNE) director Enrique Ramírez and technicians recently inspected the construction of the San Pedro Bio Energy biomass-fired power plant, which will be the country's biggest such facility, with the capacity to produce 30 MW from bagasse, according to local press reports.Dominican
Republic - San
Pedro cogen plant
to be operational
by Sep 2015
P
akistan's sugar mills have failed to export the whole quota of 250,000 tonnes of sugar permitted by the federal government in the stipulated period of almost one month from May to June, as 110,000 tonnes of sugar is still lying in warehouses meant for export, according to local press reports.Pakistan - Mills
fail to export
quota
C
oca-Cola aims to battle falling fizzy drinks sales in mature markets with stevia-sweetened soda that will have its European launch in the UK, the FT reported.United Kingdom - Coca - Cola to launch
stevia - sweetened soda in September
Uganda - 2014/15 sugar output forecast to
rise 13%
U
gandan sugar production is projected to hit a record high this year, on the back of expansion in acreage and mill capacity, the Uganda Sugar Manufactures Association said.13
www.internationalsugarjournal.comBangladesh -
Sugar output
rises 20% in
2013/14
Spain - Acor and ED&F
Man form Iberlíquidos
to market molasses
and sugar by-products
S
ugar producer Acor and ED&F Man announced in lateApril the formation of a joint venture, Iberlíquidos SL, to market molasses and other sugar by-products, along with other liquid raw materials, under the trademark "Sugar Plus".
B
angladesh's sugar output in 2013/14 rose 20% from a year ago at a time when the state procurement agency is struggling with huge stocks of unsold sweetener amid rising raw sugar imports by private refiners, Reuters reported.Steve Moon joined Germains as Managing Director/CEO in May 2014 from British
Sugar where he was Commercial and Supply Chain Director. Prior to this role Steve
worked in the AB Mauri division of Germains’ parent company, Associated British
Foods (ABF), latterly as VP Northern Europe. Previous
to ABF, Steve undertook various general management
and finance roles with Unilever.
Steve will ensure that Germains focus on delivering
the best solutions for their customers and ensure the
appropriate strategies are in place to address future
market requirements.
Alan du-Rieu also recently joined Germains. He is
the Commercial Manager. He comes with extensive
experience in Asia which includes stint with Syngenta.
Steve Moon – Germain’s new Managing Director
Steve Moon joined Germains as Managing Director/CEO in May 2014 from British Sugar where he was Commercial and Supply Chain Director. Prior to this role Steve worked in the AB Mauri division of Germains’ parent company, Associated British Foods (ABF), latterly as VP Northern Europe. Previous to ABF, Steve undertook various general management and finance roles with Unilever.
Steve will ensure that Germains focus on delivering the best solutions for their customers and ensure the appropriate strategies are in place to address future market requirements.
(Please crop the picture to include only Alan – in the centre)
Alan du-Rieu also recently joined Germains. He is the Commercial Manager. He comes with extensive experience in Asia which includes stint with Syngenta.
People and Places
Steve Moon – Germain’s new Managing Director
Steve Moon – Germain’s new Managing Director
Steve Moon joined Germains as Managing Director/CEO in May 2014 from British
Sugar where he was Commercial and Supply Chain Director. Prior to this role Steve
worked in the AB Mauri division of Germains’ parent company, Associated British
Foods (ABF), latterly as VP Northern Europe. Previous to ABF, Steve undertook various
general management and finance roles with Unilever.
Steve will ensure that Germains focus on delivering the best solutions for their
customers and ensure the appropriate strategies are in place to address future
market requirements.
(Please crop the picture to include only Alan – in the centre)
Alan du-Rieu also recently joined Germains. He is the Commercial Manager. He
comes with extensive experience in Asia which includes stint with Syngenta.
15
Desmond Leighton (1927-2014)
Desmond Leighton passed away peacefully on the 27th June 2014 aged 86 years. He had spent the majority of his working life as editor of this journal.
Desmond was born in Seaton Delaval near Newcastle in 1927, but 3 years later his parents moved to west London to start a new life. Desmond worked hard at school, determined to carve out a good education despite the onset of the Second World War. After leaving school, he committed to getting himself a degree although circumstances dictated that he do so by going to night school while also working full time. Desmond obtained a BSc in Chemistry from the University of London and went on to become a Fellow of the Royal Institute of Chemistry. It was while working in industrial chemical research at Park Davies Laboratories that he met Valerie Parker, whom he married in 1949.
In 1951 Desmond joined the staff of the International Sugar Journal, whose offices in those days were in Central London, close to the site of the Great Fire. By 1957 Desmond had became ISJ’s editor, a post he held until his retirement in 1992, by which time he had also acquired an ownership interest. By then the ISJ had moved, first to High Wycombe and then in the mid 1980’s to Port Talbot in South Wales. The publication had a small but long-serving and loyal staff led by Desmond, whose expertise regarding the sugar industry was matched by his impressive linguistic abilities; during his more than 40 years with the ISJ he became fluent in French, German, Spanish and Italian, and had a working knowledge of Portuguese. Desmond travelled widely to attend international conferences connected with the sugar industry and regularly visited many of the major sugar producing countries to stay abreast of operational and technological innovation in the industry. This information would then find its way into the features and editorial pages of the ISJ, to ensure its readers were up to date and well informed. Keen to pass on his knowledge to younger generations, Desmond also wrote a book entitled “Sugar” which was published as part of the World Resources Series in 1977.
Desmond made very many friends within the sugar industry. He remained in touch with a good number of them even following his retirement and relocation to the warmer climate of the south of France. Since his passing many have commented how much they enjoyed his company and his dry sense of humour. He was well liked and respected in the industry, by friends and colleagues who describe him as having been an ‘old fashioned gentleman’; unfailingly polite and considerate, he was completely reliable, honest and kind.
Desmond lost his wife Valerie in 2011, after 62 happy years of marriage, but he is survived by his four children, five grandchildren and two great granddaughters. He will be sadly missed by all his family and friends.
[Throughout his life Desmond supported numerous charities but he was especially keen on the work of Barnardo’s. A
donations page has been set up at www.justgiving.com/desmondleighton.]
Obituary – Desmond Leighton (1927-2014)
Desmond Leighton passed away peacefully on the 27
thJune 2014 aged 86 years. He had
spent the majority of his working life as editor of this journal.
Desmond was born in Seaton Delaval near Newcastle in 1927, but 3 years later his
parents moved to west London to start a new life. Desmond worked hard at school,
determined to carve out a good education despite the onset of the Second World War.
After leaving school, he committed to getting himself a degree although circumstances
dictated that he do so by going to night school while also working full time. Desmond
obtained a BSc in Chemistry from the University of London and went on to become a
Fellow of the Royal Institute of Chemistry. It was while working in industrial chemical
research at Park Davies Laboratories that he met Valerie Parker, whom he married in
1949.
In 1951 Desmond joined the staff of the International Sugar Journal, whose offices in
those days were in Central London, close to the site of the Great Fire. By 1957 Desmond
had became ISJ’s editor, a post he held until his retirement in 1992, by which time he had
also acquired an ownership interest. By then the ISJ had moved, first to High Wycombe
17
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F
or the analysis of sugar mixtures Browne & Zerban (1948) use total solids by drying, which is an accurate but lengthy procedure; reading a refractometer Brix is simpler but requires the corrections described below.F and G have an effect on the refractometer reading (20oC and 589nm) because the calibration is based on a pure
sucrose solution: F, G and S have different refractive index/ concentration relationships. A correction, Δw, which applies whether S is present or not, is available (ICUMSA, 1998), its magnitude depending on both the total solids and the concentrations of F and G:
where win is the invert sugar mass fraction(%),wTSr the reading, the coefficients are A = 6.222x10-3, B = 2.3725x10-4 , C =
-1.8165x10-6 , D = 1.8906x10-8 and E = 2.328x10-5. An
example is shown below.
Δw is expressed in % and should be added to wTSr, giving the correct Brix value. If the mixture is read at a temperature other than 20oC (which should be avoided) then a further
temperature correction, beyond that from the table of pure sucrose, is required.
Brix gives a concentration in terms of mass solute per 100g of solution while pol gives it per 100mL of solution. The concentrations need to be expressed in identical units and thus a second Brix correction, using the density of the solution, is required. For Brix values (20oC and 589nm) ranging from 0
to 25 % (g/100g) a density (D, g/100mL) is given by D = 0.00151x(Brix%)2 + 0.38367xBrix% + 99.823
This result is based on data from Bubnik et al (1995) used in a polynomial regression; the fit is excellent.
The concentration of dissolved solids in g/100mL, Bxv, is then given by
Bxv = Brix reading x D/100
For example if the Brix reading is 18.2 g/100g, then Bxv = 18.2x107.2183/100 = 19.5g/100mL
and F + G = Bxv
where F and G are the concentrations in g/100mL.The specific rotation is now used, namely
where P is the normal weight pol reading (g/100mL). These two equations can now be solved for F and G.
Browne & Zerban give an example for the analysis of a solution containing F, G and S. They note that when one of the sugars is non-reducing the accuracy of the procedure improves.
The three equations are:
where G, F and S represent concentrations in g/100mL, T is the total solids by drying (to be replaced by Brix as described above), R is the copper reducing power, which is zero for S, and P the normal weight pol reading, as described in the previous Blackboard1. Readings should be at 20oC.
Browne & Zerban give the following example. A solution with 5.43% F, 10.02% G and 16.16% S was analysed as described above. T was found to be 31.50%, R 15.24% and P +17.05o.
The equations can be solved manually or Excel Solver can be used, as shown below.
Analysis of sugar mixtures (part II)
Raoul Lionnet
19
www.internationalsugarjournal.com Solver gives G = 10.5%, F = 5.2% and S = 15.8 %,compared to the prepared concentrations of 10.02, 5.43 and 16.16 respectively. The errors are 5% and less which should be acceptable for process control. The chosen concentrations of G and S are high; ideally low concentrations (10-5% for each sugar) should be used to improve accuracy.
Browne & Zerban give much information on the early developments on the analysis of sugars; they provide considerable details about polarimetry, refractometry and redox reactions. Many procedures were then new and needed to be improved; fundamental concepts were therefore very relevant. It is very clear that these authors had a passion for analytical chemistry in its broadest term; their knowledge of sugar chemistry, the attention to detail and their vision for the future were exceptional.
Endnote
1. See Blackboard published in the July 2014 issue, pp 474-475.
References
Anon. (1998). ICUMSA: Specifications and Standard SPS3 (1998) Refractometry and Tables - Official
Browne CA & Zerban FW (1948). Physical and chemical methods of sugar analyses. John Wiley & Sons.
Bubnik Z, Kadlec P, Urban D and Bruhns M (1995). Sugar Technology Manual. Bartens.
BioFuel
News
For the latest sugar
industry news visit
www.internationalsugarjournal.com
sugar
JOURNALINTERNATIONAL
Italy – 3 new cellulosic ethanol projects
take shape
US EPA expands remit of federal biofuels
mandate
T
he US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently expanded the types of fuel that can be used to satisfy the federal biofuel mandate. This move could help bridge delayed targets for 2014 renewable fuel use, reports Reuters.T
hree cellulosic ethanol projects are currently under development in Italy, according to local press reports. These will be developed by Biochemtex, a unit of Gruppo Mossi&Ghisolfi. The latter is a parental company of Beta Renewables operating the Crescentino cellulosic ethanol plant in Piedmont since late 2012.Biosensor that sniffs out bacterial
networks that breakdown lignin
A
new biosensor invented at the University of British Columbia (UBC) could help optimize bio-refining processes that produce fuels, fine chemicals and advanced materials.21
www.internationalsugarjournal.com
Denmark – EU funds cellulosic ethanol
project
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A crystal-clear boost
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quality: Sugazym.
B
loomberg reported that the Maabjerg Energy Concept won EUR39 mln from the European Commission's NER300 program for low-carbon projects. The EUR295 mln Maabjerg project, which includes Dong Energy and Novozymes, is a cellulosic ethanol plant in Midtjylland.BioFuel News
Jamaica - Rising cane supplies likely to
be diverted to the alcohol sector
US Joint BioEnergy Institute’s
glycosyltransferase clone collection will
support cellulosic biofuels production
research
R
esearchers at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Joint BioEnergy Institute (JBEI) have unveiled the firstglycosyltransferase clone collection specifically targeted for the study of the biosynthesis of plant cell walls. The idea behind what is being called “the JBEI GT Collection” is to provide a functional genomic resource for researchers seeking to extract the sugars in plant biomass and synthesize them into biofuels.
S
takeholders in Jamaica currently discuss how to best use the additional volumes of sugarcane that might be available under the sugar transformation project.Pakistan - Sugar surplus, weak ethanol
prices hits Noon Sugar
N
oon Sugar Mills for the six months ended on March 31, 2014 reported a decline in profitability following pressure on margins for sugar and ethanol production and a lack of stimulus from the ethanol export segment. Sales revenue rose by 19% year-on-year to PKR1.330 bln ($1=PKR97.94), while gross profit declined to PKR86 mln from PKR205 mln.23
www.internationalsugarjournal.com
Peru – Maple
Energy produces
3 million gallons
ethanol from cane
Brazil - EPE
expects slowing
down in growth
of fuel ethanol
production
M
aple Energy produced almost 3 million gallons of fuel-grade ethanol at its Peru-based biofuel plant between 1 January and 31 March this year according to a recent company update.E
mpresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE), the research arm of Brazil's Energy Ministry, will adjust its long-term projection for fuel ethanol supplies in the country, following the crisis in the sector.Double Team
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Biobased
Products News
For the latest sugar
industry news visit
www.internationalsugarjournal.com
sugar
JOURNALINTERNATIONAL
BioAmber secures C$20 million to build
biosuccinic acid plant in Canada
Researchers produce bioplastics from lignin
S
ome three to six million euros will be available in the Netherlands for research and development into biobasedperformance materials (BPM) over the next four years. The team in charge of the Top Sector for Chemicals (defined by the Dutch government as an investment priority) has approved a continuation of the BPM R&D programme which is currently coordinated by Wageningen UR Food & Biobased Research.
Dutch government and companies fund
production of biobased performance
materials
T
he biotech start-up BioAmber recently announced that its Canadian subsidiary BioAmber Sarnia Inc., a joint venture with Mitsui & Co., has secured a CAD$20 million (U$ 18.6 million) commercial loan to finance the ongoing construction of the Sarnia plant in Ontario, Canada.R
esearchers from Biome Bioplastics collaborating with the University of Warwick’s Centre for Biotechnology and Biorefining, have demonstrated the feasibility of extracting organic chemicals from lignin for the manufacture of bioplastics.LITHSOLVENT
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KELLER & BOHACEK GMBH & CO. KG P.O. BOX 33 02 60 . D-40435 DÜSSELDORF
25
www.internationalsugarjournal.com
LITHSOLVENT
Inhibitors for the protection of metal materials against acids
KEBO-DS
Scale inhibitor in evaporation stations
KEBOSOL
Activators for alkaline cleaning solutions
KEBOCOR
Corrosion inhibitors for longtime conservation of metal surfaces as well as for closed and semi-open cooling water systems
KEBOPLEX
Scale control aids for cooling water and waste water systems as well as alcohol distilleries
KEBOCID
Disinfectant for juice extraction and cooling water circuits
KEBOSPUM
Antifoams for each range of temperature
KEBO-X
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e-mail: [email protected] Internet: http//www.kebo.de
International Sugar
Organization
23
rdINTERNATIONAL SEMINAR
Sugar and Ethanol: Fresh Options
Tuesday 25th- Wednesday 26thNovember 2014
East Wintergarden, 43 Bank Street Canary Wharf, London, E14 5NX
Tel: 44 20 7513 1144 e-mail: [email protected]
Fax: 44 20 7513 1146 http://www.isosugar.org
23rd INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR
Sugar and Ethanol: Fresh Options
Tuesday 25th - Wednesday 26th November 2014
International
Sugar
Oganization
East Wintergarden, 43 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5NX
Tel: 44 20 7513 1144 e-mail: [email protected] Fax: 44 20 7513 1146 www.isosugar.org
08.15 Registration José Orive, Executive Director, ISO
09.30 Welcome
Opening remarks by Chairman
Farideh Bromfield, ED & F Man, London
COMMUNICATIONS – IS THE EVIDENCE ON SUGAR BEING MISPRESENTED?
09.45 How to deliver an effective communications message
Mike Love, UK, Chairman Burson-Marsteller Media perceptions about
sugar
Fergus Walsh, Medical Correspondent BBC, London* The true facts about sugar
nutrition
Dr Alison Boyd, Sugar Nutrition, London
11.15 Coffee break 11.45 Financial markets
perspectives of the sugar industry
Simon Taurins, Managing Director, IBD, Credit Suisse, London
12.05 Risk management – options for sugar cane and sugar beet producers and processors
Rolando Rivera, Senior Originator Food & Agriculture, Vice President, Corporate Solutions, Swiss Reinsurance Co., Zurich
12.25 Discussion
12.45 Lunch break
THE RELEVANCE OF SUSTAINABILITY FOR SUGAR
14.30 Sugars to energy to chemicals
Jean-Alain Taupy, Raw Material Supply Senior Manager, Total SA, France
14.55 Cogeneration Jacques D’Unienville, Chief Executive Officer, OMNICANE, Mauritius
15.20 Climate change Dr Alex Guerra, Director, Institute for the Study of Climate Change, Guatemala
15.45 Discussion
16.20 Coffee break
AFRICA PANEL – INVESTMENT HOT SPOT
16.50 Nigeria sugar policy and project update
Dr Latif Busari, Chief Executive Officer National Sugar Development Council, Nigeria The Kenyan sugar industry
at a crossroads, easing the pressure
Rosemary Mkok, Chief Executive Officer, Kenya Sugar Board, Nairobi
Ethiopia: Building a competitive sugar industry
HE Shiferaw Jarso, Director General, Ethiopia Sugar Corporation, Addis Ababa
17.30 Expectations for the Toby Cohen, Director,
23rd ISO SEMINAR - PROGRAMME
Tuesday, 25th November 2014
EU PANEL – POTENTIAL IMPACT POST REFORM
09.00 EU sugar reform: process,
timetable and substance
Joost Korte, Deputy Director General, DG Agri Brussels
Isoglucose Martin Todd, Managing
Director, LMC, Oxford Post 2017 - survival of the
fittest
Johann Marihart, President, Comité Européen de
Fabricants du Sucre, and Chief Executive Officer, Agrana, Austria
10.45 Coffee break 11.10 CIS Customs Union &
sugar policy integration
Andrey Bodin, Chairman of the Board Russian Sugar Producers, Moscow
BRAZIL PANEL
11.50 Increasing efficiencies in
Brazil
Luis Pogetti, President, Copersucar, Brazil Performance and
competitiveness indicators for the Brazilian industry
Gui Nastari, Director, DATAGRO, Brazil
13.00 Lunch break
15.00 The world sugar market in 2030
Dr Leonardo Bichara Rocha, Senior Economist, ISO, London
TRADE PANEL
15.40 A brave new world in
search of profit
Andres Galindo, Head of Raw Sugar Trading,ED&F Man, London
Barry Callingham, Senior Sugar Trader, Bunge, London Nick Penney, Senior Sugar Trader, Sucden Financial, London
Helder Gosling, Commercial Executive Director, São Martinho, Brazil
17.10 Close of seminar
Wednesday, 26th November 2014
For reasons not under the organizers’ control, this agenda may be altered until the date of the event.
Registration
The registration fee of £895.00 also covers: an evening reception on 25 November, refreshments on 25 and 26 November, the ISO Sugar Yearbook and copies on the ISO’s website (with a username and password) of the Statistical Bulletin; Monthly Market Report (in English, French, Russian or Spanish); Quarterly Market Outlook (in English, French, Russian or Spanish); and online access to the Seminar Proceedings immediately following the event. Space is strictly limited
International Sugar Journal |August 2014
