Social Media Analytics

(1)

Social Media Analytics

Ahmed Abbasi

University of Virginia

1

Outline

Social Media Overview

Social Media for Communication and

Collaboration

Social Media Analytics

Application areas

Challenges

Social Media for Engagement

(2)

Social Media

Socialnomics video:

3

The Social

Ecosystem

4

Collaboration

Analytics

Engagement

(3)

SOCIAL MEDIA FOR

COMMUNICATION AND

COLLABORATION

5

Communication and Collaboration:

Social Media Usage

(4)

Benefits for Internal Use

7

Source:

McKinsey Quarterly 2012

Alternative to Email?

French company Atos

to ban internal email

usage.

Statistics:

200 emails per

employee, per day

10% are useful

18% are spam

Exploring other tools,

including social media

8

(5)

Challenges

Social media management policies

Security

Usage

75% of employees use social media to stay in

touch with friends

Technology portfolio management

On average, 6 social media tools

Some using 25+ tools!

Unified communication (UC)

9

SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYTICS

(6)

Social Media Analytics Definition

Technology used to monitor, measure,

and analyze activity by users of the

Web 2.0 framework to provide

information to make business decisions.

According to a 2011 Bloomberg

Businessweek Survey:

Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Analytics

Source: Gartner 2011

Social Analytics

Social Network Analysis

Emotion Detection

Social Media Monitoring

Social Media Metrics

(7)

Text Information Categories

13

Low

Identification Complexity

High

Topics

Opinions

Emotions

Events

Multi-class problem

Keyword-driven

Series of

binary or

multi-class

problems

Multi-class

problem

Overlapping

classes

Multi-class

problem

Context

dependent

Complexities

Linguistic features

Literary devices (sarcasm, satire, rhetoric, irony, etc.)

Spam

Context

Social Media Analytics: Opinion Mining

14

(8)

Social Media Analytics: Opinion Mining

15

Source:

Chen 2010

ONLINE SENTIMENTS AND

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

(9)

Sentiment Indicators and Indexes

Consumer sentiment as an indicator?

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI),

Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), etc.

Web 2.0: Social Media Sentiment?

Online Customer Satisfaction

February 12, 2005

September 25, 2010

2/2008

Shutterfly Gallery

2007-2008

Photo Books

Now, free unlimited

storage space

4/2009

iPhone App

Sources:Foresee, http://www.foreseeresults.com, CNN Money, http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2009/10/07/shutterfly-fights-the-photo-recession/

(10)

Online Customer Satisfaction

19

Increased satisfaction score between 2009 and

2011 also resulted in increased stock price.

Social Media Sentiments as an Indicator?

20

The strong

relationship between

stock price and

sentiment

polarity/intensity

(sents) for Apple

over a 24-hour

period.

(11)

Using Blogs to Predict Movie Sales

Key finding: frequency of positive sentiments is better

indicator than volume of posts alone.

Relationship between movie income per theater

(solid line) for new releases, and frequency of

positive blog posts (dashed line).

21

Using Twitter to Predict DJIA Movements

22

86.7% accuracy in predicting closing up and down of DJIA

using Twitter tweets

(12)

Twitter and the Facebook IPO

23

Social Media Analytics: Twitter

Twitter

100M+ active users per month

50% log on every day

55% on mobile

1B Tweets every 3 days

10 billion/month in Oct. 2012

6 billion/month in Sept. 2011

4 billion/month in Mar. 2011

3 billion/month in Jan. 2011

2 billion/month in Apr. 2010

1 billion/month in Jan. 2010

24

(13)

Social Media Analytics: Twitter

25

Source:

http://www.mediabistro.com/alltwitter/api-billionaires-club_b11424

USING SOCIAL MEDIA FOR

DECISION-MAKING

(14)

Social Media and Product Design:

The Case Of The Red Dell

Source:

Radian 6, 2010

Social Media and New Logos:

Mind the Gap?

2,000+ critical comments on Facebook

5,000+ new critical followers on Twitter

14,000+ parodies of the new logo

Gap reverted back to the old logo within days

28

(15)

Social Media for M&A Analytics

29

Source:

Lau et al. 2012

Social Media for Early Warnings: ADRs

(16)

Current warning mechanisms

Some problems:

Might not be enough reported incidents

Can take time

Differences in time of warning for various

drugs of the same class

Social Media may provide early warning…

31

32

s

v

u

Time t Time t Time t FDA 0 Approval FDA 1 Black Box Change1 FDA 2 Black Box Change2 FDA 3 Withdrawal Sentiments S(t) Volume V(t) Search Query U(t)

0

(17)

Social Media for Early Warnings: ADRs

33

(18)

Social Media Analytics: Tiger Case

Why did Nike maintain its relationship with

Tiger Woods?

Why did Accenture part with Tiger Woods?

Answer: Social Media Analytics

35

Social Media Analytics: Tiger Case

Sentiment for Tiger Woods before and after

scandal

Combined from Twitter, blogs, forums, social

networking sites, etc.

36

(19)

Discussion keywords in Tiger conversations

post scandal

4% - 7% of the postings mention a sponsor

37

Source:

Xenophon Strategies, 2010

Far greater reference to Tiger in Accenture conversations than Nike

38

(20)

Sentiment for Accenture within Tiger Woods

conversations

39

Source:

Sentiment for Accenture within Tiger Woods

conversations after cutting ties with Tiger

40

(21)

Sentiment for Nike within Tiger Woods

conversations

41

Source:

2010 CMU study on Economic Impact of Nike

sticking with Tiger:

$1.6 million higher revenue in golf ball sales

alone (in 2010) due to sustained relationship

“Tiger’s continued endorsement profitable for

Nike, but perhaps not for non-golf related

products”

(22)

SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYTICS:

CHALLENGES

43

Challenges: Spam

Webpages

(web spam) – 20%

Our research: 70%-80% of the top 100 Google

search results for “online pharmacy” in

2009-2011 were spam.

Blog spam

(splogs) – 12%

User-generated comments to blogs > 50%

Some studies report rates as high as 90%!

Twitter

– between 5% and 10%

Our research: varies, depending on topic

44

(23)

Challenges: Spam – Websites and Blogs

45

Source:

Abbasi et al. 2012

Challenges: Spam - Reviews

46

(24)

Challenges: Spam - Detection

Spam Cues:

Lengthier

Higher average word

length

More descriptive and

vivid

47

Sources:

Ntoulas et al. 2006; Ott et al. 2011

Challenges: Sentiment Accuracy

Analyzed performance of several SaaS

opinion mining options:

Found that many of the tools had overall

accuracies as low as:

42%

for sentiment polarity classification

75%

for within-one accuracy

In comparison, baseline ML methods:

73%

for sentiment polarity classification

98%

for within-one accuracy

(25)

Challenges: Context…the “why”

According to the 2011 Gartner Hype Cycle:

Existing text and social media analytics tools

tend to focus on the semantic dimension of

language:

what

people are saying.

While using such tools organizations have

difficulty understanding discussion

context

and

participants’

actions

and underlying

intentions

.

49

Sources:

Gartner 2011

Challenges: Context…the “why”

A Text Analytics Framework for Sense-making

(26)

Challenges: Context…the “why”

51

Manufacturers can develop new products.

Try to develop new products. But I think that manufacturers must invest funds to do academic research. What new product we can try?

We can try to develop new flavors of products

The research and development cannot be finished in one or two day. Now it must face surplus. New products with health care function

We can develop different products according to different consumer groups. Such as tea with health function Currently, milk tea is popular. We can produce more milk tea.

Packaging milk tea seems impossible.

If developed milk tea poured many times, it might attract more customers. In consider of sales, we can think about seller, promotion mode, brand culture and propaganda. Yeah, manufacturers cannot bear the cost of research and development.

Training and recruiting the marketing person ，

For salesJumping to a big sale can be effective? Tea bag can be poured repeatly?

I think milk tea can be poured repeatly hasn't any practical implication. ？

big sale will lose money Making some promotional activities.

building the brand concept is pretty important. I think there no famous band in tea bag market. So, we can create our brand though donation.

we can find some famous spokesmen.

We heard people donate quilt and tents, but didn't hear donating tea bag. Donation CANNOT promote the brand. what kind of spokesperson will contribute to propaganda of tea bag?

Spokesperson with positive image and effect is very important. So, they can play good publicity effect ？

How to deal with excess productivityHow about outsourcing? Big sale is not appropriate. We need to make money and this sales model is failure. Outsourcing the excess productivity.

Too much inventory will waste the charges of the stock. Sales might let more consumers to know our brand. Outsourcing is work for others and brings in a little labor cost. It just reuse the excess productivity. Who is outsourcer?

And then other people generate bias to our brand. It is CANNOT change such bad impression. Once our brand sold very cheaply, it is hard to rise in price.

So, it cannot make such big sales. This pattern will hurt the brand building. Well, yeah, let's think about the others marketing strategy.

Discussion: Tea bag manufacturer's dilemma

Then the development of new product has certain theory and factual basis.

to older man, slimming tea to young woman, and packaging milk tea.

Discussion: Tea bag manufacturer's dilemma

☆ ☆ ☆

☆Manufacturers can develop new products.

Try to develop new products. But I think that manufacturers must invest funds to do academic research.

?What new product we can try?

☆ ☆ ☆

☆New products with health care function

☆ ☆ ☆

☆We can try to develop new flavors of products

The research and development cannot be finished in one or two day. Now it must face surplus. yeah, manufacturers cannot bear the cost of research and development. ☆

☆ ☆

☆We can develop different products according to different consumer groups. Such as tea with health function

☆ ☆ ☆

☆Currently, milk tea is popular. We can produce more milk tea.

Packaging milk tea seems impossible. ?Tea bag can be poured repeatedly?

☆ ☆ ☆

☆If developed milk tea poured many times, it might attract more customers.

I think milk tea can be poured repeatedly hasn't any practical implication. ☆

☆ ☆

☆In consider of sales, we can think about sale, promotion mode, brand culture and propaganda.

☆ ☆ ☆

☆Training and recruiting the marketing person ☆

☆ ☆

☆For sales，Jumping to a big sale can be effective

?Big sale will lose money？

Big sale is not appropriate. We need to make money and this sales model is failure. ☆

☆ ☆

☆Making some promotional activities.

Building the brand concept is pretty important. I think there no famous band in tea bag market.

☆ ☆ ☆

☆So, we can create our brand though donation.

We heard people donate quilt and tents, but didn't heard donating tea bag.

☆ ☆ ☆

☆So, we can create our brand though donation

?What kind of spokesperson will contribute to propaganda of tea bag?

Spokesperson with positive image and effect is very important. So, they can play good publicity effect

☆ ☆ ☆

☆Too much inventory will waste the charges of the stock. Sales might let more consumers to know our brand.

And then other people generate bias to our brand. It is CANNOT change such bad impression. Once our brand sold very cheaply, it is hard to rise in price.

So, it cannot make such big sales. This pattern will hurt the brand building.

Well, yeah, let's think about the others marketing strategy.

?How to deal with excess productivity？How about outsourcing? ☆

☆ ☆

☆Outsourcing the excess productivity.

Outsourcing is work for others and bring in a little labor cost. it just reuse the excess productivity.

?Who is outsourcer?

Then the development of new product has certain theory and factual basis.

to older man, slimming tea to young woman, and packaging milk tea.

Donation CANNOT promote the brand.

SOCIAL MEDIA FOR

CUSTOMER ENGAGEMENT

(27)

Social Media Sources and Control

53

Source:

Foresee 2010

Online Social Media Usage

A 2010 study of 99 franchisors’ web presence revealed:

54

(28)

Online Social Media Usage

55

Source:

One Up Web 2010

The Conversion Funnel: e-Tailer

(29)

The Conversion Funnel: Social Media

57

Source:

Peter Chang,

http://webpersonas.blogspot.com/2011/01/deep-dive-into-social-media-conversion.html

SMR Study: How to get Retweeted

25% follow a brand

67% purchase from the brand they follow

58

Source:

Malhotra et al. 2012

What Doesn’t Work

Asking questions

Hashtags

Embedding links

Contests

What Works

Leaving room

Making it relevant/timely

Providing practical information

Offering deals

(30)

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