BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

THE

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

_ _ TS-_22 _ _ _._ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ «HB

^MARCH

¹⁹⁴²

CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA OF ALL TOBACCO PRODUCTS. AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION PER CAPITA. UNITED STATES. 1900-1941

~

fJ)

0

10

z 9

:::>

0

a...

<(

1-

~ 8

(.)

a::

w

a..

fJ)

1-

u

:::>

'0 0

0::

a..

0

(.)

u

<(

Ill

0 1-

7

6

1 - - - 1

Consumption per + - - - - t - - - - + - - - - + - - - - t - - - - t

capita of tobacco

products ~

1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940

*'FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD INDEX NUMBERS. ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN POPULATION

190

1-

z

w

u 160 ~

a..

<(

I- ll..

<(

130

u

0:: w

a..

z

0 1-

100 g

0 0

a..

0::

....J.

<(

70 a::

40

I-f./)

:::>

0

z

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 24111 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

THE YEAR -TO YEAR VARIATIONS IN PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF TOBACCO PRODUCTS ARE

RA~HER

CLOSELY RELATED TO CHANGES IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY.

DURING PERLODS OF REDUCED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT THERE HAVE BEEN SHIFTS FROM MORE EXPENSIVE TO LESS EXPENSIVE PRODUCTS, AS WELL AS A DECREASE IN THE.TOTAL QUANTifY CONSUMED PER PERSON. DURING

PERIODS OF INCREASED INDUSTRIAL"PROOUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT THE SHIFT IS TO MOAE EXPENSIVE PRODUCTS AND PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION INCREASES.

80TH CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION,ON A PER CAPITA BASIS, ES-

TABLISHED NEW HIGH RECORDS IN 1941.AND THE .OUTLOOK IS FOR EVEN HIGHER

LEVELS IN 1942.

J/.ARCH 1942

CONTENTS Charts:

Consumption per capita of all tobacco products, and industrial production per capita, United States •••••

Flue-cured tobacco: Supply and price in the United States . . . ,. •...•... , ...•...•..•.•

Burley tobacco: Supply and price in the United States Tobacco: Cash farm income, by classes and types,

United States ..•.•.•...•...•..•...•

Summary statement ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Discussion by classes and types:

Flue-cured, types 11-14 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Bur ley, type 31 •....•••••••••..••.•.•••••.••...•••••••

Maryland, type 32 ••. , •.••••.•..••.••••..••.••.. , ...•

Fire-cured tobaccos, types 21-24 ••••••••••••••••••••••

Dark air-cured tobaccos, types 35-37 ••••••••••••••••••

Cigar tobaccos, types 41-62 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Statistical tables:

Flue-cured -

Production in specified countries Domestic supplies, disappearance, Burley - ·

Domestic'supplies, disappearance, Maryland -

Domestic supplies, disappearance, Fire-cured -

...

and price ...

and price ....

^,

...

and price ...

Domestic supplies, disappearance and price •••••••••

Dark air-cured -

Domestic supplies, disappearance and price •••••••••

Cigar types -

Domestic supplies, disappearance, and price • •.

u • • •

Supplies, disappearance, and price of Puerto Rican tobacco •....•.•...•...•..•... , , •..

General data -

Tax-paid withdrawals of tobacco products •••••••••••

Production of manufactured tobacco •••••••••••••••••

Acreage intentions, by types, United States ••••••••

Average yield per acre, by types •••••••••••••••••••

Stocks of foreign-grown cigar, cigarette, and smoking tobacco in United States •••••••••••••••••••••••••

Index numbers of production of tobacco products, United States ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Per capita consumption of tobacco products, United States ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ••••••••••

Consumption per capita of all tobacco products and industrial production per capita, United States ••

Front cover page Inside back cover page Inside back ewer page Back cover page Table

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

3

4 8 .10 11 14 17

7 ,8

10 11

13

16

18

19

.20

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

' '

TS-22

~ '

~---~---~---

T H'E T 0.] A 0 Q.O .SITU AT I 0 N

Spring Outlook Issue

---

S~ry_

~

The.general

d~mand

situation fer most types of tobacco continues to

~. ~

improv.e. refleQting ~ncrea&ed industri~l activity and higher consumer incomes

.

^~

..

^....

.

.

.

1

which are expected to result in increased domestic consumption of most

I ~, ' • # ' ' ,

tobacco products • _.

'

. .. Some_improvement in t4e export situation also may take :place.

G;rowers of f'lue-cured, burley,. fire-cured, and dark air-cured· are

'~xpected.to_plant acr~~ges about equal to their 1942 allotments. Intended

.. .

_{! ·.}

...

~plantings

_. . of Maryland tobacco are . .

^{~· ' .,._} .the.same.~s ^'

the harvested acreage last Beason according to the

~rch ~

crop report, whereas a decline is indicated

' ' l

for cigar tobaccos.

It now appears t~at the 1942 supplie~ of. flue-cured, burley, and

; Maryland tob~cco will ?e ample even with expected increases in the con- sumption of cigare.tter.; t:tnd chewing to:b.acco and some improvement in exports.

.,

' '

-

~ :pros}:lecti ve

suppli~?s

of fire-cured tobacco are more than adequate as a result

·of the vir·tual

ce~sation

of fire-cured exports, and in spite of a probable

·_increase in .the domestic consumption of snuff. The supply of dark air-cured, while, large, is ~ot considered excessive inasmuch as consumption of chewing

tobaceo is, likely to remain at or increase somewhat over the present level.

The outlook is for a continued increase in domestic consumption of most tb't;lacco products. Duripg the fiscal year ending June 1942 consumption may

. I

total 225'bi~lion cigarettes and 6 billion cigars, compared ~rith 190 billion

i

ciga~ett~s·and 5•7 billion cigars· in the preceding-year. The consumption of

MARCH 1942

snuff in 1941-42 seems likely to be larger than a year earlier, when tax-paid

'

withdrawals totaled 38 million pounds. Consumption of chewing tobacco -con- tinues to increase but at a reduced rate.

The 1941-42 tobacco marketing season is nearly ended and prices have been generally favorable. Rapid selling shortened the sales season for all types. All flue-cured, burley, Maryland, and dark air-cured markets have closed, sales on markets for Kentucky and Tennessee fire-cured (types 22 and 23) are nearing completion, and a large part of the cigar-leaf crop has bee'n

s~ld.

Preliminary estimates of prices reqeived by farmers are 27.8 cents for flue-cured; 29.3 cents for burley; 33 cents for Maryland (1940 crop); about 12.1 cents for dark air-cured; and to date about 14 cents for fire-cured.

These represent sharp increases over the preceding season. Returns to flue- cured growers totaled 180 million dollars for the 1941 crop compared with 124 million for the 1940 crop; and returns to burley growers this year were 100 million dollars compared with 61 million dollars for the 19~0 crop.

Returns to grm1ers of Maryle.nd tobacco totaled 10.8 million dollars; returns to fire-cured growers will approximate 10.5 million dollars; dark air-cured, 4 million dollars; and to cigar-leaf growers about 25 million dollars. Total returns to tobacco growers for the entirE" 1941 crop (1940 Maryland crop) will be about 330 million dollars, the largest since 1919.-

FLUE-CURED, TYPES 11-14 Full Planting of 1942 Acreage

Allotments Expected

High prices received for the 1941 flue-cured tobacco crop, together with increased domestic consumption and some prospect for increased exports - largely lend-lease - are expected to ^encour~ge flue-cured growers to plant their full allotments, which for the belt A.s A. whole total-843,300 acres.

Growers

¹

intentions as of March 1 were to plant 819,300 acres of flue-cured,

or to underplant allotments by 2.8

pc~cent

according to the Crop Reporting

Board. Growers ordinarily have not exceeded

1

allotments. Ov~planting of

- 5

allotments results in <a penal.ty of 10 cents per pound on sales of tobacco grown on the -excess aereage, and the loss of certain Agricultural Adjustment Administration payments .•

Within the last decade yields have tended upward as .the result of the use of more productive land, heavier applications of fertilizer, ?.nd more

intensive cultivati.on. It is P.lso possible tha.t the availc>.bility of more

ex~.ct figures on acreage in recent years has c>.ccentuated this app?.rent in- crec>.se in yields. In some yeR.rs favorable weather also hP.s been an importPnt fc>.ctor contributing to higher yields. If the nationPl normal yield for the marketing quota of 885 pounds should be.obtained, the crop on the allotted acreage would be about 746 million po~nds, or about 95 million pounds above the crop of 1941 and about equal to the estimated 1941-disappeA.rance (domestic consumption plus exports). 1/ If the high 1940 yield of 1,024 pounds should be obtained the crop would be 864 million pounds, or about 21} miilion pounds above the crop of 1941 and more than 100 million pounds above the estiuated · disappearance in 1941. An increase as great as 213 million poUL~ds above the 1941 crop_probably would r~sult in a further increase in existing large stocks.

Disappearance (1941) Shows Increase

Indications now are that disappearance in 1941-42 will be about 740 million pounds, - 5 percent above that of 1939-40 and 29 percent above disap- p&arance i~ 1940-41. This larger disappearance results from increased do- mestic consumption, and exports which will be substantially higher during 1941-42 than a year earlier when the total was 136 million pounds (export weight).

Domestic consumption of cigarettes continues to increase. For the first 8 months of the fiscal year 1941-42, tP.x-paid withdraWPls reached 144 billion cigarettes - 18.1 percent over the corresponding 8 months of the previous year. If the sarue percentage increase continues for the remc>.inder

of the year, total domestic consumption may total 225 billion cigarettes for the fiscal year ending in June 1942.

Although the predominant use of flue-cured t0bacco in-the United StP.tes is in the

mP~ufacture

of cigarettes. large

qu~ntities

are also used in

^s~oking

mixtures, especially granulP.ted smoking tobacco. The production of s:uoking tobacco decreased 7 percent during the first 6 months of the fiscal year 1941-42, - or from 107 million pounds to 99 million pounds. The decrease probf'l.bly was due in part to a shift from hand-made to machine-made cigarettes, e.nd to prohibition of smoking in many industrial plP-nts. On the other hPnd production of

plu.~

chewing tobacco, in which a c0nsiderable amount of flue- cured tobacco is used, increased about 3.6 percent, or from 24,709,000 pounds to 25,588,000 pounds d~rini the first 6 months of the present fiscal year

The national normal yield under marketing quotas for any kind of t0bacco

as used in the .A.hricultural ~dj~tment Act of 1938 as amended) is determined

by wei~hting the average yield per acre of the respective types of tobacco

in the variQUS States durin~ the five years last_precedin~ thP year in which

the national marketi~ quota is.proclaimed, adjusted for abnormal conditions

of production.

- 6-

over the corresponding 6 months a bacco consumption mey result from production and consumer incomes.

end 16).

Esti~eted Stocks, July 1, 1942.

Shoy Some Decreese

ye~r

earlier. Further increases in to- anticipated further rises in industrial (See cover ... page- dhart and also tables 15

Stocks of flue-cured tobacco on July 1,_ 1942 are expected to be about 1,503 million pounds. compared with 1,593 million pounds a year earlier. The decrease will result largely from the small ·1941 crop and increased domestic consu:.1Ption. Assuming the nationf:\.1 normal yield for the marketing quota in 1942, the decree.se in stocks 'of 90 mill_ion pounds may be abo')lt offset by an incree>.se of about the se>ne e.:nount in production. In this case the supply for the yep.r 1942-43 \\rill be .about 2, 250 million pounds, - not far different from the 1941-42 supply of 2,244 ~illion pound~ which is the largest on record.

(Tc:.ble 2).

At recent rates of liquidation Commodity Credit Corporation stocks of flue-cured tobacco as of July 1, 1942 may total about 200 million pounds co~pared with about 354 million pounds on hand a year earlier. On this basis i t appears that e.bout 1,300 J.l1illion pounds will be held by -dome_stic manu- facturers and dealers (including exporters) on July 1, 1942. Privately owned stocks of 1,300 nillion pounds appear large in

spit~

of the increasing con- sucrption of tobecco products. ·Stocks pri vate_ly held by· dealers (including exporters) on July 1, 1942 are expected t·o. be considerably less the.n in recent yee.rs, indicating soue reduction in activity on the part of deA.;ters resulting in large part from curtailed export a.ctivities. On ~uly 1, 1941 dealers stocks ~otaled about 148 million pounds.

Review of 1941 Flue-cured Season E)

F'Jr the first tir:1e on reco.rd· t:>.ll flue-eured r,1A.rkets were cl0sed by tho end 0f the cElr ndP.r yeP..r 1941. Rapj.d selling Hnd high prices· ch8.racterized all

thes~

markets. The higher prices reflected a quality highly suitable f0r cigarette r.111.nufacture, higher levels· of domestic cnnsumption and an out- l00k fr:>r still further increases, Eqld a smaller crop than was indicated earlier in the seasrm. An0ther fF"cto:r contribut-ing to higher prices was the p0ssibility 0f s0ue increasE in exp0rts.

Of th; 650-r;;illi'm-pound crnp, 629 r.1illi0n p0unds nf leaf were sold A.t e.u.ctirm. The s~as0n PverFtge farm price f0r. the 1941 crop wa·s 27.8 cents nnd ret1.1rn::> t0 gr11tr<-:rs tntaled r.10re than 180 rnillinn dnllars. This compares with 124 I.'Jillbn d0llF.rS r0r the 19~0 crop, and is the, highest since 1919· .when the Ye.lue Qf thP cr0p was 212 r:Lillion d0l:).f'.rs. About 66 percent of the crop wA-s sold over s.uction floors in North CarolinA. at a price averaging 29.8 cents;

r:1ore ttJAn 12 percent in VirginiP. at P.n HVerage of 31.0 cents; 9 percent in South CB.roliM. at 25.2 cents; 9 percel'j.t in Ge.orgirt .?.t ?.0.4 cents; 1 percent in Florida P.t 21.2 cents; nnd the rer.1ainder, 21 uillion pound,s of scrap tobacco

or 3 p>:rcent of the crop,

Wf.W

sold outside of m.A.rket floors

Rt

an A-verage of 2.4 C8nts per pound.

"il Tob_~ !~-rket Revievr, Cle.sG 1 - Flue-cured, ~.rch 14, l942 releA-sed by

th"3

Agri~u.l

tural Markt:tinp; Service.

mabie 1.- .F1ue.:.cured tobacco: Production. i:Q. specified count·r·i_es,. 19'}5-:-.41

.,·,

: · . ·· Year~begipning JUly~fc=-:-- _ . . . .

<Jountry _:_· _11.25, __ : 1936 : ·, · 1237 : • 1938 : 19~9 ~..:;. :1940 ?£:: ¹⁹⁴¹ ff ^<

: l~co.; l'b" 1,ooo .Lb.,, 1,ooo lb. 1,ooo lb • . 1.-ooo·Ib. 1·,ooo .. J.<b •. 1,000 >:o.· ... ,.

.l3ritish lirpire sources: ; - - - -

A··~"'r·'l2-a

- . . •

AU;"'> t- -::~ .. -.:..-... .- • o • • e • • •-• • • • • • • • • • 1

5,198 5,980 4,149

24,596 55.374 ·7~,174 _ C:a.r-E.£1 a

o . . .

* •

t:. . . . ~ • • , . . . o :

5,557 3

^{h 1}

,.n

~..1

^09"

Cyp::·ua , ,

'!) • • • • • • , • • • • • • • ~ . . . :

Ind::a-; ;._;

^r.. ~ore ... · ... :

506 16,4oo

257 33 . )0

19, 500 · 4o, ooo 46·,.ooo lJl

562 672 . 222 .

4,750 : 11 .

79,734 . 39.144 . 423 . . 21

36,000 . ·. 49,000 431 . 250

!J :;::,,·:.;.t"i

.;.~

i

~:~ ~j "' -;:I "- fl • (!I • • " • • a .. • 4) 0 ' • 8 :

Nortl .. s1·n. Rhodesia • •••••••• ~.: 1,201 1,187 . 1,996 1,960

Nyase,lB.~d ..cHn••••u•••••••: 2,109 2,293 2,370. 3eQ71 S.:;•lt~l.;£~ n·~c<1.3da .... " •••• •9: .. 20,709 20,344 . 25,342 22,424 Unitn1 '":Ji Sf;;.;.th Africa . . . .. : 2,100 3,200 · 3,800 . 4,z~o

Tcf.vJ r-·c.porting countries .: 83,781 J7,137 _ 135,567. 12_0,7 0

Other

:fo.cd.g1~

soarccs; :

ll .? •. 90_9 . 5./

3y019 : •3•250

·34.459 '. 34.927 10,000 ·• . 5/~- 110,816 . J.2b.~11 Argenti;2a •••••••••••••• ~ •••• : --- 335 582· . 1,529 li224 1,569

68,722

3.523

Chine, 3/.,

" H . . . :

163,000 · 180,000 Ch'?e :J:-t~r;,.,:,

^r-·e

~>

^{9 • .. o •. •} p.," •

~

•"' • • • • :

1, 063 7., 640'

210,000 81,500 120,000 122~500 85,000 9,126 ·10~998 24,365 22,670 31,217 J g,;r,an "" .. " ., ,. " • ~ •

o

~

• . , • • • • o • • • • :

51, 288 48, 893

':

,Ui..(..:..J.J....; .. _ ~--

,, .. ·" _. -

. - L ' 0; ,.2)

-;: I

.j II • • U •

.

G ') • ,. • • • , • • • •

• 5

'

000 4

, f .

950

'"'--'·'· _.t.:·~· •JJ..,_'-:;L "."•• 1. '~ ,_'..:.L·..;,,,j ^{;(r '!} .... Ti~~ ^'11.' C"" · .. .::,.

,)j

7. ;...,

J)

f ~ 0 " ' .

j)..

0

2 000 ' 4 000 •

'T'r • _.. c:'.A,•r.;,,I,....,")':,I.,(I0•4••r-••"~4l<•OI'•·•--.-:..~ ·rr•.., •

1 .-,(,2

... :;·/

1

~~,

9::n6

'l'·jt,o?. r;p·.•rtin(~ cc·-~:l•,rios .: 22~,613 2li>], 754

United _{:rc t}

o~l ~- ~~

20:~_.;;-:,3 ~···~·~••••··••: 1

1·

cq;o r t i.

r~~g

: --- :"F-LJ.';h ^...

^----~~

682,850 _

6_2,172 64,773 84,374 - 87,181 122,000 1, 100. .llt. 500 §I ^{39. ooo 4o, ooo 44~ ooo}

3,300 4,000 . 3,000 1,200 13,600

2, 885 4,096 8,386 10,3~8 10,400

29~.765 181,39b 280,349 28~,218

86 d02 7-85,Z31-1,15~t320·· ,_12§.26J' j>~0,602 ____ _:·:::·~~ .:~~--~.?~_-::.: .. .:::.:-:...:..~.!..~

^!_!:_:

.1:.~.}?_l~:::..5B9 1, oo7, y41 1, 227, 63~ ..b..~27 .~ 1, 610,482 1,168, 6~2

Cvrr•p _;_s::i <

~-;,:. ·]1 [ i

->;j_

;>JJ.-·~;uc, l'r:; :::1 ~.;:;

·Jf T!'11 tod States consuls,

~ommor~ia.l

attaches, e.gricul tura1 attaches,

. ~-

r: .. :1d. C'J:-L .. 0<:.5 t;J

:ZfJ'~~it= ...

J.

~f1~;~

:Ln for0ign

(;ou:-.~l"'iosn

.. . .

y ^Tho Y·..;':J.r t0ginning Jv.1.7 :i.ncludes the harvesting season in both Northepn and Southern Hemispheres. In

l~orth0rn Hr;;-;J.q:J:~Gr(:;, !}(:08. ~·rn

1935, for cxa.mplc, arc for crops harvested in summer and fall of 1935; in South- r:;rn H',.:;:~~~::;;·:•:r0 thr,y

D"f.·c·

f•;r .;rom! har-vuztcd in ~Jpring of 1936. For !llany countries bordering on the Equator,

J:~.rv-~,,~ ;; ,a:cted lat0 L1 1S.35 alJ.(l vw.o compldod in early months of 1936. ?:.,/ Preliminary. Data for earlier

;y<Je.n J'it3~/ be rnYisGd on ·uJ.cis of la.tor information. J) Estimated. ':Jj The low 1939-40 crop resulted from

·;::·i':~:T:::.::l.~;J.,:;, ·;:r~r...thsr" yJr.•::-·r.:;

¹

.t;;.,s

1

end. dL:;r;ryeo!J

1

v.rhich destroyed much of tho area set. 2,/ Data not available 8..t tl11:..: J";: y/;.D~.i CB.~i~·>;.; t) 1; r'.! ;:; e.ro o.:v.:.J :..i; 1.·ro of the so count ri os. §./ ^Of this amount, a port ion was produced fr·;_m fJ.1J.h-eurcd <Jcod 1Y:1t WIJ.s oun-cur.:Jd. J/ ^{Grown in Java.}

'

•'

~

t<

'._,·

The crop 'Was sold on 75 ^markets, 26 of which 11rere designated by the Secretary of Agriculture for the inspection and maxket ne'Ws service of the Agricultural Marketing Service. During the 1940-41 season, only 14 markets were designated for this service. The Agricul tura.l

~1f1.rketing

Administraticn will hold a referendum during the latter pRrt of

~-'lay

to determine 'Whether the flue-cured growers favor inspection and market news service on the 49 markets not covered at present.

Table 2.- Flue-cured tobacco: Domestic supplies, disappearance, and season average price, average 1934-38, annual 1940,

1941 and indications for 1942 !/

Based on allotted acreage, Average 194 ⁰ 19ln : specified yields, and prC'b- Item 1934-38 : . g) · : · able stocks '3.L

- - - _ _ _ :1942 4/:1942 5/:1942 ·6/:1942 7/

Million Million:Million Million Million Million Millim pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds ·pounds pounds Flue-cured, types 11-14

Production ••.•...•••• : Stocks (July 1) •••••• : Supply . . . :

Disa~ppearctnce

••...• : Price (cents) •.••...• :

.

740.6 844.9 1,585.5 703.9

22.9

756.6 1,409.7 2,166.3 573.4 16 .. 4

650.6 . 666.2 737.0 746.3 863~

1,592.9 1,503.0 1,503.0 1,503.0 1,503.0 2,243.5 2,169.2 2,240.0 2,249.3 2,366.5

740.5 27.8

-::-r-=----=-- --:--:---'-.,...---- - - -

1/ Farm-sales-weight equivalent.

~ Preliminary. Disappeare.nce estimated.

}/ Under marketing quotas the total 1942 flue-cured acreage allotment is 843,300

acres.

~ Production based on a low yield of 790 pounds obtained in 1936.

5/ ^{Based on} 1935-39 Rverage yield of 874 ^pounds.

b __

7 ^j// Based on national normal yield for marketing quota of 885 ^pounds.

Based on high 1940 yield of 1,024 pounds.

Acre~ge Allotments (1942)

Expected

~

be Planted

BURLEY, TYPE 31

It is expected that most farmers will pl~nt pr~ctically their full 1942

acreflge ~llotment ?.nd that the tote.l burley acreage will approAch the national allotment of 383,000 Rcres. The indicated

acreag~ ~s

of March 1, however, is 369,~-00 f'-Cres, an underplP.nting of 3.6 percent.· As.pointed out i.n the cnse of flue-cured tobRcco, there is R

pE"n~"l

ty of 10 cents per pound on Sftles of tobacco grown on acreages other than allotments and the loss Cif certe.in Agricultural Adjustment Administration pH;yments. On the other hP.nd, the high prices received for the 1941 crop atid the present nnd prospective high levels

of domestic consumption tend to discourage underplanting. '

If the yield obtained this senson should equ.F>.l the nit tional normal yield for the mArketing quota of 865 pound.s fl.nd if the full acreage nllotment should be plc>.nted the 1942 production 1.orould totr,l 331 million pounds compared with n crop in 1941 indicAted by sales dat?. to be about 340 million pounds,

~nd ~ 1937-41 averace of about 370 million pounds.

~&-22

-J)is~~pearsnce (1941) 'Expected~ ..

Show Increase ~ ~

- 9 -

It is-tentatively estimated that disappearance during the present year ending September 1942 will total about 352 million pounds compared with 340 million pounds a yef!.r earlier. If the national norrpal yield for the market- ing quota should be obtained in 1942 the resulting crop of ?bout 331 million pounds, would be considerably below the 1941 est;i.mated disA.ppeArance ?.nd

somewhfl.t below disappearance in 1940. However, yie~ds in recent years have been high.With the 1940 yield of 1,042 pounds, the allotted acref!.ge would produce a crop close to 400 million pounds or 48 million pounds more th~n the estimated disappearance ip 1941. _The. outlook is for a continuation of the present hi~h level of domestic consumption resulting ~?rg~ly from higher

income levels. :Burley is consumed almost entirely in the United States and is, therefore, little affected by the export situation.

The present situation indicates stocks of burley will be about 786 million pounds as of October 1942. only sli§:;htly smAller thfl.n the 798 million _pounds'a year earlier. (Table 3).

Review of 1941 :Burley Season 2/

As in the case of flue-cured, the burley crop WPS sold in record time.

NePr1y 207 million pounds or about 60 percent of the crop hP.d been sold be- for-e Illfl.rkets closed for the ChristmPs holid?.ys. A fe"' markets were open until February 13 but most of them were closed by Januf!.ry 30.

_ ,_ As in 1940 the Commodity Credit Corpor?.tion mPde lo?ns A.vailable to growe_rs throur;;h the CoopE>rati ve Associatio-ns, but association receipts of tobacco to 'be

^-plF~.ced

under loan were sme.l1 since prices paid on the ?.uction floors ~or all grades ·far exceeded the 1941 loan rates.

The 1941 burley crop was li~ht in body and especially suitable for cigarette manufacture. The price for the season averaged about 29.3 cents per pound, l".nd with. ·the exception of 1928 e.nd 1936 W?s thE' highest price received for any burley crop since 1919 when the

~verat;e

price received by growers was 33.2 cents. Returns to growers for the 19~1 crop were about 100 million dollars, - the hit,"hest since 1918 when

?.

crop of 312 million pounds brouhht Growers 102 oillion dollars.

About 75 percent of the 1941 burley crop was sold in Kentucky at an averP.g:e of 2,9.2 cents; about 17 percent in Tennessee at 30.7 cents; the remainder, or 8 percent, was sold in the other 6 burley-producing States, at an average of 27.7 cents.

2../ Season Tobacco Market News Report of thE' A~ricul tur?.l Marketing Service,

February 20, 1942. (:Based on inform~tion coopil~d by the United States

Depart1nen t of Agr.icul ture.)

MARCH 1942 - 10 -

Table 3.- ^~urley tobacco: Domestic supplies, disappearance. and season aver~

price, average 1934-38, annual 194o •. 1941. aad 1a41ca\loae fo~ 1942 1/

: : - : : Based on allotted aoreage, :Average: le4o : 1941· ¹ speeif'ied yields, and proba-

:1934-38: : 2/ : ble stocks J{

: ; : - . t19~2 !f/ :191±2 5/ :~l9:-r.4~2$-?{?'"T"/ :--=-1~94...,..2_1 __ [

Item

:Million Million Million Million Mtllion Million Million :pounds pound!_ pounds . ~ounds pounds pounds pound~

:Burley, type 31- : .

Production •...••••. ^t 286.9 376.0 34o.O 278.4 321.0 331.3 399.1

Stocks (Oct. l) •••• : 700.9 762.3 798.1 786.0 786.0 786.0 786,0 Supply ••...•.•.•. : 987.8 1,138.3 1,138.1 1,064.4 1,107.0 1,117.3 1,185.1 Disappearance ••••.• : 314.2 340.2 352.1

Price (cents) ••...• : 22.2 16.2 29.3

•

I

-l~l~F~a-r_m

___ s_al __

e-s--w-e_i_g_h_t_e-qu-i~v-a~l-e-n~t-.---

g/ Preliminary. Produc.tion and price indicated by sales data; di sappea.rance

estimated. .

1/ Under marketing quotas the total 1942 burley acreage allotment is 383,000

acres.

~/ Production bas~d on low 1936 yield of 727 pounds.

5/ Based on 1935-39 average yield of S38 pounde.

£/ Based on national normal yield fo~ marketing ·quota ef S65 pounds.

· 11 Based on h~gh 1940 yield of 1, 042 pounds.

iwtYLAND, TYPE 3 2

Indicated Acreage (1942) Sa~!! 1941

The 1942 acreage of Maryland tobacco indicated as of March 1 is 40,300

acres, 4,000 acres less than the· recQmmended goal of 44,300 acres. Assuming a 1935-39 average yfeld of 769 pounds, the recommended acreage would produce a crop of 34 million pounds, ·which would be a record Maryland crop. The indicated acreage and a 1935-39 average yield would produce a orop of 31

million pounds, or about the s~e as the crops grown in 1940 and 1941.

Disappearance. Little~ No Change.Anticipated

Disappearance of Maryland tobacco during 1942 is ~xPected to be around

30 million pounds; during 1941 disappearance totaled 30.9 million pounds. No significant change in disappeara.nce appears likely in the year ahead, as it is not probable that any increased use in domestic manufactur~ will more than offset the practical cessation of exports. Increased domestic disappearance will result principally from increased cigarette consumption. There may also be some increase in the use of lower grades in cigar filler blends.

Since no significant change is expected in disappearance, stocks as o!

January 1, 1943 are expected to be about the same as on January 1, 1942 or

around 45 million pounds.

- l·L ...

-

.

Fourth ^:~·-.2! .Auctions ~Open~:.

' ~ (.

-

· . · ''/ l . .t' ~s- repo:r-ted ·that· the auction· floors for sale of the 1941 southern

.~aryland ~rop will open May 5. About three-fourths of .the 1940 crop was sold a:t_..auction._:'-The balance of the ·crop was sold on the Baltimore market; ':J:./

.

^'

.

. '

.

.'- T'aoie .4.~ Maryland·'tobacco; .. Domestic supplies, disappearance, and season

· · ::average .. ·price, average 1934-38 •. -annual 1940. 1941, and - indications for 194.2 !/

.

^.

• : .

1941

2/

:Mar.Y.l. and •. 't-ype 3 2:

:pounds J20unds J20Unds J20unds

. Producti-on";.~;--;·;· .... ;:; .•... ,.:

._ Sto~Iss.i/ ·~· . .- ... ~; .... · ... :

, Supply ... ~ ... • ... ; . • ... -:

.. Dtsapp~aranqe il ~.~ ... :

Price (cents) ... ·; •.•... .. :

. !

27.5 38.4

65.9

27-5 19.7

32 •. 6 43.2 75.8 30·9 33.0

29.8 . 2.8. 8 34~1 37-7 45.0 45.'0 45.0 45.0 74.8 73.8 79.1 82.7 29.8

!/ , . Farm-sale s-:-weight equi valen~t-. - - - -

2r Preliminary. Disappea.r·anee· estimated.

3( Th~ reo.ommended 194-2 acreage· goal for Maryland t.obacco i_s 44,300 acres.

fJ../ :Pro~uc~ion based -on a low yield or· 650 pounds obtained in 1937.

5/ ~~~ed·_·o~ 1~35-39 average yield of 769 pounds. . '

£/ ^{Based <m·} high 1940 yield of 850 ,pounds. . .

1/ January 1 of year following production, and disappearance b~ginning January 1 of y~ar following production.

;.: ~-

. FIRE-CURED, TYPES 21-24

Acrea~e Ala.btmetrt · ( 1942) ~ ~ in 1941 ·

. . ^...

^{' '}

^'

^{\ ~· '}

^{. ..}

^'

~he.· i942" ~creage allotme.nt for fire-cured tobacco is 84,800 acres, the same as .. the ~9~1 allotment, tn· 1941,· the acreage harvest~d was slightly under the

allotmen~.

According to the Crop Reporting Board, .the indicated fire- cured acraage· as of March 1,-1942 is 87,100 acres or 2.7 percent above the

allotment. ·

If·a yield equal to the 1941 r~cord of 90~ pounds is obtained a crop of about T7 million pounds would be grown on the allotted.acreage. _Based on the national normal yield for the marketing,quota (851 pounds) the crop on the allotted acreage would be about 72 million pounds.

E/ For·s~~Y of the 1941 selling sea~on (sale of 194n·crop) see TOBACCO

SITUATION, TS-21, January 1942, p. 12.

MARCH 1942 - 12 - Disappearance Prospects Somewha~ Unfavorable

S~uff

is the principal domestic produgt.manufactured from fire-cured types. During the fiscal year ended June 1941, 38,332,000 pounds were tax- paid for domestic consumption. During the first 8 months·of the fiscal year 1941-42, 26,928,000 pounds were tax-paid or an increase of 7.6 percent over

the corresponding 8 months a year earlier.

Ass~ming

a continued increase of 7.6 percent,· domestic consumption would reach 40 million pounds for the fiscal

year ending June 30, 1942. -

Smaller qua~tities of fire-cured are used in some kinds of chewing tobacco. Fo+ most of these some further increase in consumption is ind~cated,

but this will have little effect 'on th~ consumption of fire-cured because of the smaller quantities of this class used in their manufacture.

During the crop year October 1940-September 1941 only 15,887,000 pounds of fire-cured tobacco were exported. If about one thir~ of the Black fat and Dark African exports (which normally co~si;st of about ohe.:..third fire-cured), are aqded, the approximate total would be 17,114,000 pounds, which compares with the 1934-38 average of about 63,883.000 pounds. It is likely that there will be further reductions in exports for these types during the coming year,

since continental European countries

whic~

normally have been the principal importers are to a large extent no longer accessible.

Increased stocks estimated as.of October 1

1

~942 to be 190 million pounds and a crop of 72 million pounds will make available a supply of 262 million pounds, the largest since 1937 when the supply was 290 million pounds (table 5). The large prospective supply and decreased exports cause the fire- cured situation to appear relatively unfavorable even though some increase in

domestic consumption may continue.

Type 21.- The Virginia fire-cured markets w~dgpened December 8 were closed by February 26. A 1941 crop of 11,688,634/is indicated by sales data.

The season average price received by growers for this type was 15.6 cents, 6.3 cents above the 1940 price and 4.2 cents higher than the 1934-38 average.

Growers received 1,828,000 dollars fo~·the 1941 crop of 11.7 million pounds whereas the larger 194o crop of 18.7 million po~nds·brought returns to grow- ers of 1, 743,000 dollars. The quality of ^{the .~94i'} crop showed a general

improvement. · -

Types 22 and 23 .- As of March 18, about 32 mill-ion pounds of Kentucky and Tennessee fire-cured, type 22, had been sold at an average price of 14.2 cents; and through March 19 more than 11 million pounds of type 23. at 12,1 cents over auction floors. The final season average prices

m~

be slightly below those indicated through March 19 since lower grades usually come on the markets late in the season. However, they-still will be above those re- eeived in 1940 when they were respectively 10.1 cents and 8.3 cents. Prices received ih 1940 were about the same as the 1934-38 averages.

Type 24.- The Henderson Stemming crop currentl'Y estimated at 166,000

pounds has been sold at 9.9 cents per pound, compared with 7.1 cents in 1940.

.

'

.Table '5 .• ·-. Fire-cured· tobacco: Domestic supplies, C.isappearance, an~ se~son average price, average 1934-33~ cnnual 1940, 1941,

'_ ·. . · · , and indica tiqns fo._r 1942 y

> - 1 . . •

: : : : ]ased on allotted acreage,

:Average:_ 19 4 _{0 .. : 1} 94 _{1 2 ,:} specified yields and

Item _n9~33:

: · ^{I=J: ·.-} nrobable stocks

- - - ____ __;;...: - - : : !1942 ,i/:1942 ,5,./:1 42 6 :1 42

:Million Million.Milli~n Million Million Million Million Total ~ire-cure4t. _:pounds pounds Pounds nou-~ds pounds .p~unds p~unds

types 21-24:. ·. . · : · -- ·

Production .. ~ .J'.· ••••• ~. :· 110.0 Stocks (Oct. 1). ... : 194.2

Supply ... :-;. • .- •• --~. :· 304.2

Disappearance h ••••••• : 122.7

Prl.ce (cen~.s) -••••••••' 10.2 Virginia fire-.cur~d, : ..

type

2~:.

·- · · :

Production •• : ••• ••• •• : l8.3

S~Gcks (bet. 1) •••••• : 30.6

Supply •••••••••.•••••• : 48.9

Disappearance •• · ... ~: · 20.2 Price (cents) ••••••••: 11.4 Clarksville and HopkL~s-:

ville, type 22: :

Production ;, •••••• •. •:

. Stocks (Oct. 1) •••••• : Supply •.••• ·-· ••••••• '" • : Disappearance ••• ~.~-~:

J?'rice (cents). •• ~ •• _.· •• : Paducah, typ~, 23: · · ·::

Proq.uction •• ~. ~ •• ~ •• ~:­

Stocks ( Oc:t •.. l:) .• • ••.•• : Supply • •'•• •• ~-~···. ~ ••• ~ Disappeara11-ce -'~,. • •••.• • • : Price (cent~?) ""~ ~ ... : Itend.erson Stemmfii.g,. · . :

t'U'rle 24• · : ' ~ · · 63.1

125.9

189.0

"72.3

'10.3·

26.:1-

34.7 6o.8·

·26•9 8.2

.. 103.-.8 . 74.4- 141.6 . 133.'9 _245.4 · ~58•3

61.5 ·68.3 9.5 14.1

18.7 30.6 49.3 13.1 9.3

58.5 82.4 140.9 36.5- 10.1

2_6.2

27.9 54.1

'11.)

8~3

__ ·11.7

. 36.2 47.9 15.6

'19.5 42.7'

62.2

"J::' • ' f ... • •

' '. 4

Production. ·.·,·'••\ ... -.: 2-~5 . • .• 2

.6 .a

Stocks (Oot •. -.Jt)' ···~-···( 3.0 :_ .• 7.

Supply ••••• • ~· ~ •• ~ •• •• :~ · 5~:5 1.1

.63.3 190.0

2~3.3

72.2 190.0

262~2

75.3

190.0

265.3

t:i.sa,ppearanoe·~ ... a -3.3. "5

Price (cents) '•••••.•••: 7.5 7.1 '9.9 ---~--- - - - -

!/ Farm-sales-weight equivalent. , .

?:,/ ~reliminary. ':Production and price indicated by sales data; _disappearance

estimated,._.... . . . ·

"jj Under market~ng q_uotas the total 1942 .fire_-c1.U'ed acreaGe allotment is s4,300

4 ac:res._ Of.- this ··allotment 1.6

1

100 acres are 9-llc_tted to Virginia fire-cured.

lj} Prnduction b~sed on low yield ef 730 .P?:uhd's ,obtained in 1938.

5-/ Based '-on. 193~39 average yield of 805 P9:unds.

2/ B~sed·on nat~bnal norm~ yield ·for marketing quota of 851 pounds for all fire- cured,. -The no~l yield for Virginia fire-cured is 858 pounds.

ll :Based on high . 1941 yield, estimated at 888 pounds. .

lWtCH 1942 - 14 -

Ret~rns to growers of the l941 fire-cured crop of nearly 75 million '

pounds will approximate 10.5 million dollars -e: little more than

^WfU

received for 104 mJllion-pound crop grown in 1940 when th~ average price received was 9.5

cents.

It is expected that. all fire-cured markets will be closed by the middle of April.

Association Receipts Relatively Small

. By March 15 growers' associations had receiyed only about ~6 .million pounds of the 1941 fire-cured crop under the purch_a.se' and' l'oan program of

the Commodit~ Credit Corporation. These comparati~ely sma~l receipts were a result of the fact that prices paid: by mamifactur'e'r's' and d'e'a.l'er's were well above loan rates.

Of the 1940 fire-cured crop, the Corporation's activities involved about 35 million pounds (net packed ·weight) for· which about 4 million dollars were disbursed. As of Fe·orua:ry 28, l942, abo.ut 27- m'itlfori ·po'unds of the 1940

crop still are held. ' · ·

All Corporation holdings of 1939 fire~cured t'ob'acco have been liquidated.

DARK AIR-CURED, T'YPES 35-37 . Some Underplanting Indicated.March l

As of March 1 growers' intentions were toplant ·33;800 acres of One Sucker and Green River tobacco, 2,200 acres less than the 36,000 acres al- lotted for these two tYPes. The recommended acreage goal 'for Virginia sun- cured is 3,100 acres compared with tne March 1 interitions·of 3,000 acres.

If the combined national normal yield of 869 po~ds for the marketing quota is obtained, the allotted acreage for One Sucker and Green River would grow about a 31-million-pound crop, -about equal to'the 1941 estimated disappearance. If a higher yield should be obtained, the crop would again be above disappearance and add to stocks which ar~·already large. There- commended acreage goal for Virginia

s,~n-cured

would grow a crop about the

same or possibly slightly above the 1941 crop of 2.2 million pounds (table 6).

Virginia sun-cured (in reality air-cured) is not an export type and is not included in the marketing quota program.

Disappearance this Seas on May be Same as Year Earlier

- - -

Domestic consumption of chewing tobacco has shown some increa~e, proba~

bly offsetting at least in part export losses during 1941-42. Production of plug chewing tobacco during the 6 months July-December 1941 increased 3.6

percent over the corresponding 6 months in 1940, or from 24,709,000 pounds to

25,588,000 pounds. Production in November ana·December was considerably lower

than in any of th'e 4 other months of this period but this appears to be a

TS-22 - 15 -

seasonal trend which has been generally followed during all the years for

'~nieh ·Aata are· available. For the same 6 months production of twist totaled

2,896,524 pounds, an increase of.only 6,49Q pounds ~ver the same months in

·.the preceding year.

Exports of One Sucker and Green Riv~r are no~ practically non-existent.

The· principal foreign market for Oae Sucker has been Belgium, and for Green River the United Kingdom. :Blaek fat and Dark African, of which about two

thi~ds is One Sucker, have gone principally to west:African ports. For the year ended September 1941 ·only 3,681,000 pounds of :Black fat ~d Dark African

were exported. · '

Present indications ar~ that t~e 1942 dark air~cured supply situation

·will-not be materially different from that in 1941. Any' marked increase in supply, however, might cause the relatively favorable situation to'become unbalanced.

Review ~f 1941 Dark Air-Cured Markets 2./

One Sucker markets were close~ by February 13. and Green River markets by February 20. The Virginia sun-cured market close'd.' 1'ebruary 27. As in all tobacco areas, rapid selling and high prices prevaile~. Sales data indi- cate a One Sucker crop of 15.'3 million pounis for -vhi"ch an average price of 11.6 cents per pound was received. The 1940 crop ~ 21.9 million pounds brought growers an average of 7.5 cents per ~·ound.

1 - • • • :

Auction sales of Green River indicate ·a 1941 crop of about ·13.5 million pounds for which growers received an average price 6f

11~7

cents per pound as compared to the 1940 crop of.l7.5 miilion pounds which sold at 7.6 cents per pound.

The s~all Virginia.sun-cured crop of 2.2 mi~lion pounds sold at an average price of 18 Qents per pound.· This is ^{the nighe~t} price received for

this ttpe since 1921 when the crop sold for an average·of 18~2 cents per pound. , ·

'.

All prices receded toward the end of the season when increased pro- portions o£·1ower qualities came on the markets. Returns to growers of the 1941 dark ai~-cured ?rop, will approximate 4 million dollars compared with 3 million dollars for the larger 1940 crop.

Commodi·ty Credit Co:ryoration Activities Less Extensive

Growers' Coopera~ive Association receipts were small during the 1941-42 season compared with the 1940-41 season, since market prices for all types of tobacco were well above the loan rates of the Commodity Credit Corporation.

The associations received 1,592,362 pounds, or about 10 percent of the 1941 One·Sucker crop; whereas they received 4,533,301 pounds or about 21 percent

of the reported 19~0 crop. · ·

2./ From Season ~obacco Market News Report.- Tr.e 35, One Sucker, dated March 5.

. l94?t and the corresponding'report for TyPe 3 , Green River dated March 24,

1942, of the Agricultural Marketing Service; also Virginia Cooperative Crop

Reporting S~rvice release dated March 11, 1942 •.

N.ARCH 1942 ... 16- ...

Table 6&~ Dark air-cured tobacco: 'Domestic SuPplies, di~~pp~anj~~

and season· average :prioo,. a.ver.a.ge 19311-)S, annual 1940* ·1~41/'·- .. and indications for, 191~~-l/. · · ,

--- ---,.--....-- . _{• t : :} Based on allotted acreage-;---

^:

^~ Item

:Average • :1934-33

• •

•

: : · ··' : specified ;riolds - : 1940 :1941 ?}: and proliable stooks J/

: : : 1942 : l9ij2 . :. 1942 --=-19,_4_2 --

: : . ·-.: 4! : ~ : 6/ : ])

: Million Million Miliioh Miilion Million~Miiiion Million : pounds pounds pounds pounds po'lliw.s· · pounds pounds

Total dark air-cured, : · '

types 35-37: • _• Production •••••••••••=

Sto'cks (Oct. l) :. •• •• : Supply ... · ••• : Disappearance •••• •• .·.~

Price (cents) ••••••••:

One Sucker, type 35; : Production •••••••••••'

Stooks .(Oa.t. 1) • ... : Supply ... ~ ;: .

Disappear~ce: •••••••• : Price· (cents) ••••••••:

Green River, .type 36:. : Production ••• • •••• · ••• : Stocks (Oct. l) .~ •••• : Supply •· ••••• •• ••••• •• t

· Disappeara,nce · •• • ••• •.:

· Price (cents) • ••••• •• : Types 35 and 36 :

(combined); :

Production •••••••••••~

· Stocks (Oct. 1) .~ •••• : Supply •••• •• ... : .. t · Disappearance •••••• ;.:·

, Price (cents) •••••••• : Virginia sun-cured, · :

type 37: :

Production ... .-:

Stocks (Oct. 1) ••••••1

SUpply ••••••••••••••~:

Disappearance ••••••••=

Price (cents) ••••••••:

•

35.2 62.8 98.0 38.7.

9.4 16,.6 30,.3 47.,4 17.8 8.9 15.9 29.3 45.2 18,.3 9.7

42.5 65.5 103.0 '33.5 7.7

39.4 ... 62,.0

.. ^to1.~

.30.7 7.5

3 ... ^{1' ..}

3.5

' i

6.6.

9 .. 2.8 J.

15.3 . '35.7 51.0 'il • 6

13.6 35.0 43.6

23.9 70.7 99.6 31.1

11,.7

2.2 3.8 6.o 3.1 13,.0

?5.7

68.5 94.2

30.5 6S.5 99-.0

·- _... -

--

31.3.

63.5 99.3

- - -

37.6

71.4

109.0

34.s 63.5 103.3

~--- ---·~---- --

ll Farm-sales-weight .equivalent,. g/ :Preliminary. Producti.on and price indicated by sales data; disappearance'es~imated •. l/ ^Unde~ marketing quota the total 1942 acreage allotment for tY,Pes 35 an~ ~6 co~bined is 36,ooo acres. ~ recommended acroa.go goal £or Virginia sun-cu.rod, t;yj;>_e _37, is 3,100 acre~. '±/Production based on low yields for ·One Sucker and Gro·on River combined, aiid for Virginia

sun-cured which wore respectively 714.P,ottnds (1936) and 73¢ pouri~s (1936).

2/ Based on 1935-39 average yields of One ·sucker and Gre~n River combined, and Virginia sun-cured of 346 poi.lnds and 844 pounds, respectj.v_ely~ 6/ Bas&ir on national normal yield for.marketing ·q\iota (t;ypes 35 and 36Y o.f. s'6'9 po~ds.

II Based on high yields for One Suckei' ·and Green River ,cdmbined.,. and Virginia

sun-cured of 963 pounds (1941), and ·900 ·pounds (1935), re'spect~vely. '

17 -

. Assoc:Latl:on receipts· o'f Green River :tfu:ough January· 24 totaled

1,489,720 pounds or abo~t 12 percent of sales· to that date, whereas receipts of the 1940 crop totaled 3,.643,955 pounds (net packed "'eight) or nearly 25 percent of the crop. The Commodity Credit Corporation as of February 28 was holding 4

1

713

1

195 pounds (net packed weight) of tho 1939 crop of Green River as collateral for loans totaling $473,595, and 2

1

959,800 pounds of the 1940 crop for loans totaling $275,439. As of the same date One Sucker

holdings of the 1940 crop totaled 3,857,416 pounds (not packed 'I;Teight) held

~or loans of $427,021.

CIGAR TOBACCOS, TYPES 41-62 March 1 Acreage Intentions (1942) Less than

1941 Acreage and Less than Goals

'Growerst acreage intentions as of Harch ·1, 1942 were: for filler, 46,400 acres: binder, 36

1

700 acres; and for wrapper, 10,200 acres. The

recommended goals for these classes of cigar leaf were respectively 48,100 acres, 44,400 acres, and 10,800 acres. For all three classes -the prospective acreage is less than the 1941 harvested acreage (table 11). .

The 1942 acreage goal of 48,100 acres for filler types ~rould grow a crop somewhere between 54 million and 66 million pounds - the former if a lo'" yield of 1,123 pounds is obtained as was the case in 1937 and the latter if th~ yield is a high of 1,372 pounds preliminarily repo~ted for the 1941 crop. The 1942 acreage goal for binder of 44,400 acres would grow a binder crop between 56 and·69 million pounds, and the wrapper acreage goal · of 10

1

800 acres would likely produce a crop

be~weon

9 and 11 million pounds (table 7).

Consumption Increases Expected to Continue

-Increased industrial activi t;;r and higher consumer income levels were factors largely responsible for the increased cigar consumption in 1941.

During the year ended June 1941, consumption reached 5,708 million- an

increase of 3.5 percent over the preceding year. The 8 months July-Febru~J

(1941-42) showed a consumption of 4,119 million cigars compared with 3,775 million during the same 8 months a year earlier, an increase of 9.1 percent (table 9). Assuming the same percentage increase in consumption for the remaining 4 months of the fiscal year July~JUno 1941-42, consumption may reach or exceed 6 billion cigars. This would be larger than tho consumption indicated by tax-paid withdrawals of cigars in any one fiscal year since 193Q-31 • .

Consumption of scrap chewing tobacco indicated by production data also shows an increase. Production during the 6 months July-December 1941 totaled 22,615,000 pounds compared with 21,778,000 pounds in 194o and 21,395

1

000 pounds in 1939. Increases in:congumption of scrap chewing tobacco are attributable in part to a substitution of chewing for smoking in certain industries where smoking by 1.10rkers is prohibited.

Estimated Supply, 1942, About Same !a& 1941

Based on acreag~ goals preliminary estimates indicate that the 1942

production of cigar tobaccos will be about equal to or slightl;r less than

MARCH 1942 - 1&-

.,

Table 7·.- Cigar· :tobacco: ~~e~ti~ supplies. d:isa.ppea;ranc~t and_season average pric~~ av~r~e 193~38. anh~al 19~0, 1941~

· . · · and.

_.

indica-tions for.·19lf2

_{I .. .}

JJ · · . ·

•• .

,.

'l

:. Average

. :. . . . .. :Based ;on. recommended :acreage, 1:94 ^{0 ,.: -} 1941 2 r : sl?ecified yields,· 1md

. .

'. ^{• i934-38 • • · ! . :::J : p-robable s .}

..:t.::.OO::;:l=ts=-...=·

~--

- - - ' - - - - ...;,_ _ _ _ ~:- ^! 1942 .. 4{ :...,.,· l:::.J...:-'42=-·~~=..4-:.~L.

Item

• • . •

• Million

. Million Million MilH.b"n· Million'. -Million

. :£20"'lnds

. popil.d.s .... pow~~- 12ounds pounds pounds

. •

• • Filler, types 41-4~

Production •••••••••• : 44.6 68.~- ·:~:-:·. ·~6s.2 :: ,.·. 54.o ·. ~-~ ... 5g.:2 .. ) ...

St~cks (Oc~. 1~ J/ _ .. : ^{159.9 151.0 ·} 1S8. 7 ·. ... i59.5 · .· 159·.5.

Supply ••••••••'•••~ • .-: f2o4.5 219·e3 ,~2 6 ^{.6.9_ , .~13'\~ .. , 217.7}

Disappeal"a.nce .~. ~ ~ • .": • 50.0-. f5o,6 . . .. 7.4

l'ri6e (cen:t!?) • •• ·• •• : , . . 10.4-· 12.0 -!.... : · ··· '·

Binder, types 51-!5 5 ... · : ·: · · · Production ••• ·•·· ••• : ·~r 41.4 · 66.5-.

Stocks (Oct. 1) 1} •• : 165.1 ~ 134.9 Supply ••••••••••••••= 206.5 201~4 Disappearance .-: ••• eo: 6o.o 66 .• 4 Price (cents) • •.•.•• •• .: 12.5 ,J:4.6 Wrapper, types 61~62- :

Production ••••• ~ •••• : ~ 8.4 9o5 Stocks (Oct. ·1) -]}' •• : 10.7 ·. l?.~.

Supply •••••••••••• • • : - 19 .1 ... · 2?. . Disappearance ••••••• : 8.9 10.7

('6b,3 :. '. '55.8 135.0 124.4 195.3 180.2

70,9 ·.·

- '9.?:

10;.3 19.5

.· '

64. 1·' 124.4:.

189.1

"

,: 1:0,.3

···10,3 20.6

66.o

159.5 225.5

69.2

124.4 193.6

11.3 10.3 21.6 Price (cents) •••••• • t _ _ _,7"""8,_. ... 3 _ _ __.7 ... 5 . .a.:8 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ..:.,__ _ _ . . - - - - - Total cigar leaf :

supply ••••••••••••••= 430.1

• •

11 Farm-sales-weight equi~alent.

443 .. 1 443.-7 '427 •. 4 440.7

?:_! Pre],.iminary. Disappea.;r,ance estim~ted. · .. ·. . . . ' · ·

3 I :The recoinmendec. 1942 acr.eage goals -q,re: • ,.Ei!lf),r 4S,l00, a~res; binder 44,4oo

- f • ... •

ac;r:es; and wrapper 10,80@ acres. : . ' ' . ': '... . 'r' . .. . ' ,... . 4 I Produdtion based on a: lQW filler· yield 'of .. l, i23 poUndS (1937); . binder 'of l,25J pounds (193g);. and \!/Tapper Of ~5~-_pounds {1937). . .;· ··. . · · · ..

~/ .':f3·ased on. ?overage 1935-39 yieilid ·of l,gll p~unds for fille.r;·-1,458 pound~ for bilid.e;t'; .and 955· pounds·· f0r wrapper.: · >: · ·.• . · . : . -. · · · ·' ·. · ., .

§_! Based· on a hi'gh · f~:ne·r yield ·of J..-;37.2 ~-9~C1s, (l9.~1); 'b·in'der +• 559 .pounds (1936):

and wrapper 1,046 pounds (1936). ·' · · ' ·

^c "· • · ' •

1/..-Stocks 4eld on farms not included; stocks for types 45 and 62 a;l'e· •as o.f July 1.

§./ Including loss. after harvest as a reE!ult of htu;~ic~a. ~d flood in 1938 as foll01t~S: Broadleaf (type 51) 3,820,000. po.und.s;':~av~~_' S~~-o; -(type" 52) 1,547,000 por:.nds; and Shade (type ·_.61h 583,900 peunds.. . . ·. ·. ·:· · :': ·, . ... · · ·

9_/-The 194o stocks prob~ely·'include consider.~ble qilBl).tit~e~ ~fro1d-cr<?:P tobacco

moved out of farm stocks into 'dealers' and-manutacturerst inventories., _... ..

^~

.

19 -

di,sw_l>earanoa. in 1941. As of March 1 grotrers indicated acreages less than those ~sted in 1941 ~d below the ·recommended goals. However, growers at that .time were somewhat uncertain about their acreages because labor and

~nterials are important factors to be .considered in growing cigar leaf. . ^-

Large Part~ Crop Now Sold

.. · · · ·. Mo~t o·:r the 1941 crop of cigar leaf has been sold. Although prices

r~~i~ed so £ar this season for some cigar types have been a little above those receive~ during the previous season, the season average price may differ but little from that in 1940. Prices received for the 1941 crops of Connecticut Valley Broadleaf and Connecticut Valley Ra~~~.Seed are about the same as those received for _the two previous crops but.considerably .higher than for earlier years. Wisconsin binder prices ~o about the same

·as for the past several years. All filler and ~~apper types are selling at averages similar to those of the preceding season. The following season average prices were received for the 1940 crop of cigar tobacco: Type 41, 13.3 cents; ~e 42-44, 7.7 cents; type 45, 14.9 cents; type 51, 21.0 cents;

type 52, 21.7 cents; type 53. 12.0 cents; type 54, 8.5 cents; type 55, 11.7 cents; type 61, 80•0 cents; and type 62, 10.0 cents •. The average price received fQr all cigar leaf of the 1940 crop was 17.4 cents and returns to growers tota~d a little more, than 25 million dollars; prices and returns for the 194l··Crop may be about the same.

Table.8.-~roduction, stocks, supply, disappearance, and price - of filler tobacco, type 46, grown in Puerto·Rico, 1935-41 !/

• Stocks

Year •

Pro due- ^• Jan. 1,

beginning ..

tion ^• fa:rnr-sales

July ^•

• weight 2l

• ₌

Million :to.iillion J20unds J20unds

1935 26.0 50.2

19;36 • 35.0 51.2

1937 .. _{• 44.1 56.5}

1938 .. • - 11.7 64.2

1939 .. _{. 28.1 47.4}

1940 3/ _• ^• 30.7 47.6

1941 3/ • ^• 49.3

. • ^.

• .

• •

Total . _• . _supply .

. •

• .

• •

Million J20unds

76.2 86.2 100.6 79.9 75.5 78.3

Disappear- ance Million J20unds

25.0 29.7 36.4 28.5 27.9 29.0

. .

. •

.. . ^Price

Cents 12.0

14.o

11.0 18.0

14.o

Compiled: Production and price from annual r&ports of the Governor of Puerto Bico; stocks from reports of the Agricultural Marketing Service.

!/ Production data are for the harvesting year beginning July and stocks are as of January 1 in the harvesting year.

2/ Including stocks held by dealers and manufacturers in the United States ind on the Island of Puerto Rico. Stocks on the Island were not reported prior to Januali{ 1. 1936.

2} Preliminary.