Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers (NOC 0714)

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The Asia Pacific Gateway Skills Table wishes to acknowledge the funding support

from the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program. ‐‐

The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author and do

Additional 2015 BC LMI Products

Occupational Snapshots

Regional Outlooks

Sector Outlooks

APGST LMI Forecast Backgrounder

More information can be found at

www.lmionline.ca or contact the Skills Table

Facility

Operation

and

Maintenance

Managers

(NOC

0714)

Supports Multiple Sectors in the APG

Facility operation managers plan, organize, direct, control and evaluate the operations of commercial,

transportation and recreational facilities and the included real estate. Facility operation managers are

employed by a wide range of establishments, such as airports, harbours, canals, shopping centres,

convention centres, warehouses and recreational facilities. Maintenance managers plan, organize, direct,

control and evaluate the maintenance department within commercial, industrial, institutional, recreational

and other facilities. Maintenance managers are employed by a wide range of establishments, such as office

buildings, shopping centres, airports, harbours, warehouses, grain terminals, universities, schools and

sports facilities, and by the maintenance and mechanical engineering departments of manufacturing and

other industrial establishments. (More NOC 0714 information is provided following the Strategies and

Actions section.)

________________________________________________________________________________________

Highlights

The forecast shows an increasingly challenging labour market for Facility Operation and Maintenance

Managers in BC. The conditions move to tight by year 3, and remain tight for the rest of the forecast.

The Lower Mainland forecast also shows an increasingly challenging labour market for Facility Operation

and Maintenance Managers. The conditions move from balanced in the first 2 years to tight by year 4, and

remain tight until the final year of the forecast period.

For Northern BC, the forecast is tight from 2016 onward.

 When normal unemployment1 is taken into consideration, Northern BC has more Facility Operation

and Maintenance Manager positions than workers from 2018 through to 2020, as well as in 2022.

New supply is expected to average just under 100% of job openings over the 2015‐2024 forecast period,

but to be lower (92%) in the first 5 years.

1

The shortage is calculated by assuming that 50% of the normally unemployed will work in the occupation, effectively cutting

normal unemployment by half. If fewer workers are drawn into the workforce, the shortages are more pronounced. If all the

normally unemployed remained outside of the workforce, Northern BC would show a shortage of workers in all occupations and in

all years.

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Across BC in general, the High Investment Scenario outperforms the Low by 120 job openings (3%) for the

full 10 years of the forecast.

 This is also true for Northern BC, although the impact is much larger at 54%.

 In the Lower Mainland, the High Investment Scenario outperforms the Low by 70 positions in the

first five years of the forecast. In the forecast’s second half, the Low Investment Scenario

outperforms the High by 15 job openings. The net effect has the High Investment Scenario

outperforming the Low by about 55 job openings (2%) over the full ten years.

Job openings are created largely by Attrition (71%).

About 1 in 3 of today’s Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers will have left the labour market by

the end of the forecast period.

9 in 10 workers who add to the supply of Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers are experienced

workers from other occupations.

Changes in the number of jobs and workers available in the labour market are driven more by the base

economy than by large‐scale projects and programs, except for Northern BC where large scale projects and

programs have a much bigger impact.

66% of Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers live in the Lower Mainland; 4% live in Northern BC.

On average, Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers have from 6 to 16 years left in their working

lives.

BC

Labour

Market:

Three

Economic

Scenarios

The Skills Table models the labour market based on three different economic scenarios to provide a range

of plausible possibilities for changes in the labour market. The Low Investment, or conservative, scenario

includes projects that are underway or certain, while the Moderate Investment, or expected, scenario adds

projects that are planned and likely to proceed. The High Investment, or optimistic, scenario adds projects

that have been announced, but with more distant start dates or more regulatory approvals needed to

proceed. The analysis that follows is based on the Moderate Investment Scenario. The impacts of the Low

and High Investment Scenarios on the labour markets are detailed in the “Impact of the Economic

Scenarios” section of this document.

Key

Facts

2015

‐

2024:

Labour

Demand

2

Labour demand is created by the business environment, economic circumstances and decisions affecting

employers’ operations. It reflects the number of jobs available to be filled in an occupation.

The table on the next page includes the number of jobs, job openings and jobs created by Expansion in the

Moderate Investment Scenario. It also shows the impact on each of those measures on the High and Low

Investment Scenarios compared with the Moderate Investment Scenario.

2

All of the information in this document is generated by the Skills Table from a labour market forecast based on the three economic

scenarios. The statements and assessments of labour market conditions are based on the forecasts and therefore are “expected”

(3)

Demand and Job Openings for Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers Region Investment Scenario Average Annual Number of Jobs Total Job Openings, 2015‐2019 Total Job Openings, 2020‐2024 Jobs Created by Expansion, 2015‐2019 Jobs Created by Expansion, 2020‐2024 British Columbia

Impact of High +38 Jobs +50 Jobs +33 Jobs +49 Jobs +28 Jobs

Moderate 7,938 1,975 1,629 791 268

Impact of Low ‐41 Jobs ‐62 Jobs +23 Jobs ‐62 Jobs +28 Jobs

Lower Mainland

Moderate 5,272 1,329 1,104 602 238

Impact of Low ‐24 Jobs ‐40 Jobs +21 Jobs ‐40 Jobs +25 Jobs

North

Moderate 333 65 69 21 14

Impact of Low ‐9 Jobs ‐7 Jobs ‐12 Jobs ‐7 Jobs ‐10 Jobs

The number of Facility Operation and Maintenance Manager positions increases by just under 930 (13%)

over the 2015‐2024 forecast period: with

 just over 755 positions in the Lower Mainland, and

 just over 30 in Northern BC.

In BC as a whole, about 3,605 job openings (growth and retirements combined) are expected to be created,

with:

 just under 2,435 in the Lower Mainland, and

 just under 135 in Northern BC.

The majority of job openings are expected to be created in the first half of the forecast. The rate of change

between 2020 and 2024 will be about two thirds of that seen in the first five years.

The majority of job openings are

expected to be created between

2015 and 2019, when demand

will grow at just over 2%

annually.

Across BC as a whole, 29% of job openings come from Expansion, 40% in the first 5 years.

 35% in the Lower Mainland, 45% in the first 5 years; and

 26% in Northern BC, 32% in the first five years. 300 350 400 450 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total Job Openings: Facility Operation and

Maintenance Managers – British Columbia

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Key

Facts

2015

‐

2024:

Labour

Supply

The labour supply is created by the number of workers who have the skills and/or certification to be

qualified to work in each occupation in each year, including those who are newly trained, have moved from

other provinces or countries, or have moved from other occupations. The extent of labour demand will

have an impact on changes in labour supply.

Attrition

Attrition continues to be the primary driver of job openings, and its impact remains about the same as in

previous forecasts. This is due to the senior nature of the position, which draws on an experienced

workforce to fill vacancies and whose workers are therefore older on average than in other occupations.

Impact of Attrition on Job Openings for Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers Region

Total Job

Openings

Job Openings Created by Attrition, 2015‐2019

Job Openings Created by Attrition, 2020‐2024

% Job Openings Created by Attrition

British Columbia

3,604

1,184 1,361 70.62% Lower Mainland

2,433

727 866 65.47% North

134

44 55 73.88%

On average, Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers are 49 years of age.

For BC as a whole, labour supply is expected to grow by about 840 workers over the 10 years of the

forecast, including:

 just over 690 in the Lower Mainland, and

 just over 25 in Northern BC.

Base Supply3 is a measure of the decline in the number of workers who are active in an occupation at the

beginning of the forecast, and who leave due to retirement during the forecast period. The decline

demonstrates the proportion of experienced workers who leave the workforce over the forecast period.

Changes to the Base Labour Supply for Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers, 2015‐2024 Region

Base Supply,

2015

Decline, 2015‐2019 % Decline, 2015‐2024

% British Columbia

7,573

‐1,184 ‐15.6% ‐2,545

‐33.61% Lower Mainland

4,975

‐727 ‐14.6% ‐1,593

‐32.02% North

321

‐44 ‐13.7% ‐99

‐30.84% 3

The Base Supply is calculated by removing the average number of unemployed workers for the period from the 2014 supply and

then removing Attrition from each year of the forecast, in essence it demonstrates the changes in each year to the cohort of

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New Supply

New supply is expected to average just under 100% of job openings in BC over the 2015‐2024 forecast

period, but to be lower (92%) in the first 5 years. The outlook is similar for the Lower Mainland and

Northern BC, and it suggests that the labour market for Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers

should be more challenging over the first 5 years before stabilizing in the second half of the forecast period.

New Supply by Type

Labour Supply Characteristics of Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers, 2015‐2024 Totals Region

Average Number of

Qualified Workers

New Entrants Immigration Regional Mobility

From Other Occupations Average Age

British Columbia

8,177

0 282 75 3,196

49 Lower Mainland

5,442

0 271 ‐30 2,158

49 North

340

0 2 10 119

49

There are no New Entrants in the new supply of Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers in BC, the

Lower Mainland or Northern BC.

International Immigration is expected to add 8% to the total new supply of Facility Operation and

Maintenance Managers in BC.

 This number will be higher in the Lower Mainland (11%).

 In Northern BC, it will be 2%.

Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers move into BC and add to the new supply of workers

marginally (2%):

 In the Lower Mainland, mobility reduces the workforce’s new supply by 1%.

 In Northern BC, mobility adds 8%. ‐ 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Labour Force Supply – Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers, British Columbia –

Moderate Scenario

Base Supply Immigration Mobility Occupational Mobility New Entrants Demand

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Mobility from other occupations (that is, workers who are experienced in another role and move into the

occupation) is forecast to represent 90% of new supply in BC as a whole, including:

 90% in the Lower Mainland, and

 91% in Northern BC.

Impact

of

the

Economic

Scenarios

In BC, the High Investment Scenario outperforms the Low by 120 job openings (3%) for the full 10 years of

the forecast. This is also true for Northern BC, although the impact is much larger, at 54%. In the Lower

Mainland, the High Investment Scenario outperforms the Low by 70 positions in the first five years of the

forecast. In the second half, the Low Investment Scenario outperforms the High by 15 job openings. The

Net effect has the High Investment Scenario outperforming the Low by about 55 job openings (2%) over the

full ten years.

The forecast shows that the economic scenarios will have little impact on both supply and demand for

Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers.

Both supply and demand for

Facility Operation and

Maintenance Managers follow a

very similar path in all economic

scenarios.

The High Investment Scenario

produces 54% more job openings

than the Low in Northern BC. For

BC and the Lower Mainland the

High Investment Scenario impact

is quite low (under 4%).

Measures

by

Scenario:

British

Columbia

The table on the next page shows the four APGST measures for workers in BC: APGST Tightness Ranking,

Supply Risk, Immigration Reliance, and Mobility4. Taken together, these indicators provide a quick

4

There are four metrics used to summarize the information from the 2015‐2024 forecast.

(1) APGST Tightness Ranking: Assesses the “tightness” of the labour market; i.e., the degree of difficulty an employer may experience in trying

to hire into the occupation.

1 = excess supply = Blue (more than 60% higher than normal unemployment)

2 = balanced supply and demand = Green (between 30 and 60% higher than normal unemployment)

3 = nearing a tight labour market = Yellow (between 0 and 30% higher than normal unemployment)

4 = excess demand, limited supply = Red (below normal unemployment)

(2) Supply Risk: A metric that assesses the extent to which new supply is keeping pace with job openings. It allows for an assessment, relative

to the Ranking, of the extent to which conditions are tightening or loosening in the labour market.

0 50 100 150 200 250 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Expansion Demand: Facility Operation and

Maintenance Managers – British Columbia

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reference “scorecard” on the conditions in the labour market for Facility Operation and Maintenance

Managers.

Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers (NOC 0714)

Scenario 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 APGST Tightness Ranking Low 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Moderate 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 High 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Supply Risk

Low LOW LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Moderate LOW LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

High LOW LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Immigration Reliance

Low LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Moderate LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

High LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Mobility Low Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Moderate Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in High Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in

Implications

The forecast shows an increasingly challenging labour market for Facility Operation and Maintenance

Managers across BC. By the third year, conditions move to tight by year 3, and will remain tight for the rest

of the forecast. This implies that employers will have challenges finding the workers they need across the

province as a whole.

If the new supply is more than 90% of the job openings, it is a LOW risk.

If the new supply is between 80 and 90% of the job openings, it is a MEDIUM risk.

If the new supply is less than 80% of the job openings, it is a HIGH risk.

(3) Immigration Reliance: Assesses the extent to which the new supply is dependent on Immigration. Given that the levers that control

immigration are not in the control of employers, this measure provides insight into the potential that the new supply expectations could

be affected by changes to immigration policy.

If Immigration represents less than 10% of new supply, it is a LOW risk.

If Immigration represents between 10 and 25% of new supply, it is a MEDIUM risk.

If Immigration represents between 25 and 50% of new supply, it is a HIGH risk.

If Immigration represents 50% or more of new supply, it is an EXTREME risk.

(4) Mobility: Demonstrates the extent to which movement into or out of the province affects the supply available to fill job openings. For the

regions, it measures movement into and out of the region to other regions in BC as well as to other provinces.

No worker mobility

Workers moving in

Workers leaving <10%

Workers leaving 10‐25%

Workers leaving 25‐50% Workers leaving 50% or more

(8)

The Lower Mainland forecast also shows an increasingly challenging labour market for Facility Operation

and Maintenance Managers. Conditions move from balanced in the first 2 years to tight by year 4, and

remain tight until the final year of the forecast period. This implies that employers will begin to have

difficulty finding workers by 2018; those challenges will increase through to 2023.

For Northern BC, the forecast will be tight from 2016 onward, and when normal unemployment5 is taken

into consideration, Northern BC will have more Facility Operation and Maintenance Manager positions than

workers from 2018 through to 2020, as well as in 2022.

New supply is expected to average just below 100% of job openings over the 2015‐2024 forecast period,

but to be lower (92%) during the first 5 years. The outlook is similar for both the Lower Mainland and

Northern BC, and suggests that the labour market for Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers will be

more challenging over the first 5 years before stabilizing in the second half of the forecast period.

Across BC, the High Investment Scenario outperforms the Low by 120 job openings (3%) for the full 10 years

of the forecast.

 This is also true for Northern BC, although at 54% the impact is much larger.

 In the Lower Mainland, the High Investment Scenario outperforms the Low by 70 positions during

the first five years of the forecast. In the second half, the Low Investment Scenario outperforms the

High by 15 job openings. The net effect has the High Investment Scenario outperforming the Low by

about 55 job openings (2%) over the full ten years.

In summary, the impacts of the forecast labour market conditions for employers are:

1. Job openings are created largely by Attrition (71%). While the loss of senior workers can create loss

of corporate memory and have a negative impact on productivity, the significant number of

experienced new workers (from other occupations) entering the occupation is likely to help

maintain productivity and knowledge levels.

2. About 1 in 3 of today’s Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers today will leave the labour

market by the end of the forecast period.

3. 9 in 10 workers who add to the supply of Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers are

experienced workers from other occupations. They create vacancies in other positions as they

move to fill opportunities in these roles.

4. Conditions are challenging in all but the first 2 years and in all regions.

5. While the overall tightness changes very little, BC and the Lower Mainland show some degree of

balance in the labour markets in the first 2 to 3 years of the forecast.

6. Changes in the number of jobs and workers available in the labour market are driven more by the

base economy than by large‐scale projects and programs.

7. 66% of Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers live in the Lower Mainland; 4% live in

Northern BC.

5

The shortage is calculated by assuming that 50% of the normally unemployed will work in the occupation, effectively cutting

normal unemployment by half. If fewer workers are drawn into the workforce, the shortages are more pronounced. If all the

normally unemployed remained outside of the workforce, Northern BC would show a shortage of workers in all occupations and in

(9)

8. On average, Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers have from 6 to 16 years left in their

working lives. This implies a need to focus on succession and maintaining corporate knowledge.

Strategies

and

Actions

Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers present a challenging labour market over the 10 years of the

forecast period in BC as a whole as well in each of Northern BC and the Lower Mainland. Some strategies to

help employers to access workers and enhance productivity in this environment include the following:

 Focus on retention: keep workers working for you and help them stay in BC.

 In a tight labour market, managing succession and building comprehensive succession plans and

experienced‐worker‐retention programs can be central tools for expanding and maintaining a

workforce.

 Examine workforce retention and recruitment programs for mature workers to extend the working

lives of current employees.

 Review hiring/job requirements with in order to encourage transferability from other occupations.

OCCUPATION

KEY

CHARACTERISTICS

Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers (NOC 0714)

Example Titles airport manager

arena manager

campus maintenance manager

chief, maintenance support services

facility operations manager

harbour master

head, facilities maintenance

maintenance manager

mechanical services superintendent

plant maintenance superintendent

recreation facility manager

shopping centre manager

superintendent, maintenance and service

warehouse manager

Main Duties

Facility operation managers perform some or all of the following duties:

 Plan, organize, direct, control and evaluate the operations of commercial, transportation and

recreational facilities and the included real estate

 Oversee the leasing of space in the facility and the included real estate and the development of

marketing strategies

 Plan, organize and direct administrative services such as signage, cleaning, maintenance, parking,

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 Plan, organize, direct, control and evaluate construction projects to modify commercial,

transportation and recreational facilities and real estate

 Oversee the installation, maintenance and repair of real estate infrastructures including machinery,

equipment and electrical and mechanical systems

 Plan and manage the facility's operations budget

 Prepare or oversee the preparation of reports and statistics related to areas of responsibility

 Hire and oversee training and supervision of staff.

Maintenance managers perform some or all of the following duties:

 Direct the maintenance and repair of an establishment's machinery, equipment and electrical and

mechanical systems

 Develop and implement schedules and procedures for safety inspections and preventive

maintenance programs

 Co‐ordinate cleaning, snow removal and landscaping operations

 Administer contracts for the provision of supplies and services

 Plan and manage a facility's maintenance budget

 Hire and oversee training and supervision of staff

Educational Requirements

 Facility operation managers require completion of a college or university program in business

administration or in a discipline related to facility operation and maintenance

or

 An equivalent combination of technical training and experience in administration or maintenance.

 Maintenance managers require completion of a college or university program in electrical or

mechanical engineering or in another discipline related to building maintenance

or

 An equivalent combination of technical training and experience in building maintenance.

 Several years of supervisory experience in facility operations or maintenance are usually required.

Source: Human Resources and Skills Development Canada at www.hrsdc.gc.ca

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DATA

TABLES

BY

REGION

AND

ECONOMIC

SCENARIO

Facility

Operation

and

Maintenance

Managers

(NOC

0714)

Region: British Columbia High Investment Forecast

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Demand 7,362 7,519 7,717 7,898 8,061 8,135 8,191 8,227 8,287 8,360

Labour Force Supply 7,713 7,841 7,962 8,071 8,193 8,294 8,388 8,455 8,526 8,626

Replacement

Demand 218 229 238 246 254 261 268 274 279 284

Expansion Demand 134 158 201 183 164 72 54 35 61 74

Total Job Openings 352 387 439 429 418 333 322 309 340 358

Average Age 48 49 49 49 49 49 49 50 50 50 New Entrants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net International In‐migration 27 26 27 27 26 26 27 27 30 33 Net Interprovincial In‐migration 11 10 9 9 11 11 9 7 5 5 Net Other In‐mobility 349 322 323 320 338 326 325 307 315 346

Net New Supply 387 358 359 356 375 363 361 341 350 384

APGST Tightness

Ranking 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Supply Risk LOW LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Immigration Reliance LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Mobility Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in

Region: British Columbia Moderate Investment Forecast

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Demand 7,355 7,508 7,688 7,868 8,013 8,092 8,147 8,185 8,235 8,284

Replacement

Demand 218 229 238 246 253 260 267 273 278 283

Net New Supply 387 358 359 356 375 363 361 341 350 384

APGST Tightness

Ranking 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

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Region: British Columbia Low Investment Forecast

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Demand 7,336 7,472 7,625 7,797 7,954 8,046 8,121 8,157 8,207 8,253

Replacement

Demand 218 229 238 246 253 260 266 272 277 281

Net New Supply 387 358 359 356 375 363 361 341 350 384

APGST Tightness

Ranking 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Region: Lower Mainland High Investment Forecast

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Demand 4,812 4,921 5,067 5,220 5,357 5,421 5,475 5,504 5,550 5,595

Replacement

Demand 132 139 146 152 158 164 169 174 178 182

Average Age 48 48 48 49 49 49 49 49 49 50 New Entrants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net International In‐migration 28 25 27 26 26 24 26 25 28 31 Net Interprovincial In‐migration ‐3 ‐1 ‐2 ‐2 0 0 ‐1 ‐2 ‐4 ‐5 Net Other In‐mobility 224 215 217 221 233 219 219 205 210 228

Net New Supply 249 239 242 245 259 243 244 228 234 254

APGST Tightness

Ranking 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3

Supply Risk LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Immigration Reliance MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Mobility Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low No worker migration No worker migration Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low

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Region: Lower Mainland Moderate Investment Forecast

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Demand 4,808 4,913 5,048 5,198 5,328 5,395 5,453 5,484 5,527 5,564

Replacement

Demand 132 139 146 152 158 164 169 173 178 182

Average Age 48 48 48 49 49 49 49 49 49 50 New Entrants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net International In‐migration 28 26 28 29 27 25 26 25 27 30 Net Interprovincial In‐migration ‐3 ‐2 ‐5 ‐5 ‐2 ‐1 ‐1 ‐2 ‐4 ‐5 Net Other In‐mobility 223 214 213 217 225 216 216 203 206 225

Net New Supply 249 239 242 245 259 243 244 228 234 254

APGST Tightness

Ranking 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3

Supply Risk LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Immigration Reliance MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Mobility Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low

Region: Lower Mainland Low Investment Forecast

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Demand 4,799 4,895 5,013 5,156 5,290 5,365 5,433 5,467 5,512 5,550

Replacement

Demand 132 139 146 152 158 163 168 173 177 181

Average Age 48 48 48 49 49 49 49 49 49 50 New Entrants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net International In‐migration 28 26 29 32 30 26 26 24 26 28 Net Interprovincial In‐migration ‐3 ‐2 ‐6 ‐8 ‐5 ‐2 ‐2 ‐2 ‐3 ‐3 Net Other In‐mobility 220 210 210 214 223 212 215 197 204 224

Net New Supply 249 239 242 245 259 243 244 228 234 254

APGST Tightness

Ranking 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Immigration Reliance MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Mobility Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low Workers leaving low

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Region: North High Investment Forecast

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Demand 317 322 331 335 345 350 355 363 370 386

Labour Force Supply 328 331 336 339 347 354 362 370 378 393

Replacement

Demand 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12

Average Age 47 48 48 48 49 49 49 49 49 49 New Entrants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net International In‐migration ‐1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 Net Interprovincial In‐migration 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 Net Other In‐mobility 14 10 12 11 16 16 17 18 18 25

Net New supply 16 11 13 12 18 17 19 20 20 28

APGST Tightness

Ranking 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Supply Risk LOW MEDIUM HIGH MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Immigration Reliance _immigNo intl._‐_n _immigNo intl._‐_n _immigNo intl._‐_n _immigNo intl._‐_n _immigNo intl._‐_n _immigNo intl._‐_n LOW LOW LOW LOW

Region: North Moderate Investment Forecast

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Demand 315 320 325 329 331 336 336 343 344 346

Replacement

Demand 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12

Average Age 47 48 48 48 49 49 49 49 50 50 New Entrants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net International In‐migration ‐1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Net Interprovincial In‐migration 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Net Other In‐mobility 13 10 10 10 10 14 12 15 12 13

Net New Supply 16 11 13 12 18 17 19 20 20 28

APGST Tightness

Ranking 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Supply Risk LOW MEDIUM HIGH MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Immigration Reliance _immigNo intl._‐_n LOW No intl.

immig‐n No intl. immig‐n No intl. immig‐n No intl. immig‐n No intl. immig‐n LOW No intl. immig‐n LOW Mobility Workers moving in No worker migration Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in

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Region: North Low Investment Forecast

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Demand 314 317 321 323 324 325 325 326 328 329

Replacement

Demand 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11

Average Age 47 48 48 48 49 49 49 50 50 50 New Entrants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net International In‐ migration ‐1 ‐1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 Net Interprovincial In‐migration 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Net Other In‐mobility 13 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12

Net New Supply 16 11 13 12 18 17 19 20 20 28

APGST Tightness

Ranking 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Supply Risk LOW LOW MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Immigration Reliance _immigNo intl._‐_n _immigNo intl._‐_n MEDIUM MEDIUM No intl.

immig‐n No intl. immig‐n No intl. immig‐n No intl. immig‐n No intl. immig‐n LOW Mobility Workers moving in Workers moving in No worker migration No worker migration Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in Workers moving in