W i l l i s I n d e p e n d e n t S c h o o l D i s t r i c t

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(2)

Willis ISD

Independent School District

February 2015

Demographic Study

Board of Trustees

Christen Arnold - President

Sue Ann Powell – Vice President

Elizabeth McKenna – Secretary

Rebecca Broussard – Assistant Secretary

Robin Sproba – Trustee

Beverly Vornsand – Trustee

Cliff Williams – Trustee

Superintendent

Tim Harkrider – Superintendent

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 2

Willis ISD

Demographic Study

February 2015

Page

A. Introduction

&

Summary

3 Introduction

3 Summary

4 B. Demographics

8 Population

&

Race

Trends

9 Households

&

Housing

Unit

Trends

10 Age Trends

11 Income Trends

12 Household

Size

Trends

13 Education

&

Labor

Force

Trends

14 C. Student Analysis

15 Planning

Zones

15 Student

Analysis

Methodology

15 October

2014

Student

Distribution

17

D. Growth

Issues

23 Factors

Influencing

Future

Growth

23 Development

Activity

25

E. Student

Projections

38 District-Wide

Enrollment

Projections

40 Campus

Enrollment

Projections 43

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 3

Section A - INTRODUCTION

Impact Demographics, a division of DeskMap Systems, Inc., a consulting

company based in Austin, was retained by the Willis Independent School District

(hereinafter referred to as "WISD") to produce a demographic study.

The demographic study will provide the District with information necessary to

plan for future needs. Included are an analysis of population, housing and

related trends, and the factors that will affect population change in the area. This

information was utilized in producing enrollment projections by grade for the

District.

The study report is divided into several sections:



The

Demographic

section of the report has been prepared to “tell the

demographic story” of the Willis ISD geographic area, including the

characteristics of the people and population of the area and of the school

district itself.



The

Student Analysis

section includes maps displaying the District’s

planning zones and the residential location of each student in the District.

Student counts by planning zone are included based on the district’s

student database from fall 2014.



The

Growth Issues

section reports on the factors that will influence future

enrollment growth and contains information on current and planned

developments within the school district.



The

Student Projections

section contains detailed enrollment projection

tables for the school district for each grade over a ten-year period. In

addition to district-wide enrollment projections, enrollment projections

were also produced for each campus. This section also includes an

analysis of capacity at each campus.

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 4

SUMMARY

DEMOGRAPHICS



The demographics section includes several categories of analysis with

data tables and graphs. A few of the key categories are as follows.



Population. The total population within the boundaries of WISD was

estimated to be 36,184 in 2014.



Population. The population under 18 years of age was estimated to be

24.2% of the total population.



Households. Family households in 2014 were estimated to be 76.7% of

total households and 48.2% of family households were estimated to

include a person under 18 years of age.



Age Trends. The median age in WISD was estimated to be 42.3 in 2014.



School-Aged Children Trends. School-age children, ages 5 to 19, were

estimated to total 7,463 in 2014.

STUDENT ANALYSIS



Student Distribution. The student enrollment was analyzed geographically

to determine the density of students in the district by planning zone.



Student Distribution. Five planning zones were identified as the planning

zones with the largest number of students, each having over 250 students.



Student Distribution. There were 6 planning zones with 10 or fewer

students.

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 5

GROWTH ISSUES



Development Activity. Housing developments in the WISD area were

studied to determine current development activity in the District.



Residential Development. Twenty active residential development projects

were identified and summary information about each development was

provided.



Future Development Projects. Five large developments were identified

that will likely generate large numbers of future students. These projects

will have an impact on the future development and growth of the District.

STUDENT PROJECTIONS



District Projections. Two scenarios were developed for the District-wide

enrollment projections. Each is based upon different economic and

residential growth assumptions. The Conservative Scenario is based on

current economic conditions and is useful for budgeting and staff planning.

More robust economic conditions and greater building activity were

assumed to derive enrollment projections under the Moderate Scenario.



Campus Projections. Enrollment projections were produced for each of

WISD’s current campuses for the next ten school years.



A capacity analysis was developed comparing the campus capacities to

the campus enrollment projections.

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY

A summary of the enrollment projections at the district-level is displayed on the

following page. A description of the enrollment projections is provided in

Section

E Student Projections

along with detailed projections by district and campus.

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 6

Y2010‐11 Y2011‐12 Y2012‐13 Y2013‐14 Y2014‐15 Y2015‐16 Y2016‐17 Y2017‐18 Y2018‐19 Y2019‐20 Y2020‐21 Y2021‐22 Y2022‐23 Y2023‐24 Y2024‐25

6,440

6,471

6,545

6,784

6,922

7,184

7,474

7,768

8,067

8,403

8,715

9,033

9,311

9,641

9,941

10-'11 t o '11-'12 11-'12 t o '12-'13 12-'13 t o '13-'14 13-'14 t o '14-'15 14-'15 t o '15-'16 15-'16 t o '16-'17 16-'17 t o '17-'18 17-'18 t o '18-'19 18-'19 t o '19-'20 19-'20 t o '20-'21 20-'21 t o '21-'22 21-'22 t o '22-'23 22-'23 t o '23-'24 23-'24 t o '24-'25

change

31

74

239

138

262

290

294

299

336

312

318

278

330

300 %

0.48%

1.14%

3.65%

2.03%

3.79%

4.04%

3.93%

3.85%

4.17%

3.71%

3.65%

3.08%

3.54%

3.11%

Note:

The

above

table

does

not

include

students

in

the

JJAEP

programs.

Conservative Scenario

Willis ISD Enrollment Trends & Projections

Projected

Historical

Enrollment

District

Totals

by

Grade

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

EE

15

21

17

24

17

20

21

22

23

23 PK

210

219

258

253

200

229

231

235

236

240

243

246

250

255

259 K

485

434

486

520

522

510

518

526

533

542

548

556

565

575

584 Grade

1

547

522

507

537

563

582

574

585

597

610

618

625

637

647

658 Grade

2

494

548

507

512

518

557

582

578

592

608

620

629

639

650

660 Grade

3

515

483

529

523

526

541

582

608

609

628

645

658

671

683

695 Grade

4

516

482

478

538

512

520

540

587

618

622

640

656

673

686

698 Grade

5

498

515

491

481

556

524

538

564

615

650

654

673

693

711

724 Grade

6

494

500

520

511

506

596

563

587

623

676

716

724

748

772

791 Grade

7

463

500

505

510

515

512

607

574

601

641

692

732

743

772

796 Grade

8

457

475

515

526

540

542

544

642

612

642

680

734

778

794

824 Grade

9

467

523

493

540

593

595

602

610

722

692

724

766

829

879

895 Grade

10

458

414

462

502

516

572

584

596

605

717

688

719

762

824

872 Grade

11

433

426

403

426

427

475

528

539

553

567

666

640

670

710

765 Grade

12

388

409

374

381

411

409

461

517

530

547

560

653

631

660

697 Total

6,440

6,471

6,545

6,784

6,922

7,184

7,474

7,768

8,067

8,403

8,715

9,033

9,311

9,641

9,941

Note: The above table does not include students in the JJAEP programs.

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 7

Y2010

‐

11 Y2011

‐

12 Y2012

‐

13 Y2013

‐

14 Y2014

‐

15 Y2015

‐

16 Y2016

‐

17 Y2017

‐

18 Y2018

‐

19 Y2019

‐

20 Y2020

‐

21 Y2021

‐

22 Y2022

‐

23 Y2023

‐

24 Y2024

‐

25 6,440

6,471

6,545

6,784

6,922

7,231

7,586

7,982

8,457

8,975

9,478

9,936

10,326

10,756

11,166

10-'11 t o '11-'12 11-'12' t o '12-'13 12-'13 t o '13-'14 13-'14 t o '14-'15 14-'15 t o '15-'16 15-'16 t o '16-'17 16-'17 t o '17-'18 17-'18 t o '18-'19 18-'19 t o '19-'20 19-'20 t o '20-'21 20-'21 t o '21-'22 21-'22 t o '22-'23 22-'23 t o '23-'2423-'24 t o '24-'25

change

31

74

239

138

309

355

396

475

518

503

458

390

430

410 %

0.48%

1.14%

3.65%

2.03%

4.46%

4.91%

5.22%

5.95%

6.13%

5.60%

4.83%

3.93%

4.16%

3.81%

Note:

The

above

table

does

not

include

students

in

the

JJAEP

programs.

Moderate Scenario

Willis ISD Enrollment Trends & Projections

Historical

Enrollment

Projected

District Totals by Grade

Grade

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

EE

15

21

17

24

17

20

21

22

23

24

25

25 PK

210

219

258

253

200

231

234

241

247

255

263

269

276

283

290 K

485

434

486

520

522

513

523

537

554

569

583

595

610

624

638 Grade

1

547

522

507

537

563

586

583

599

623

648

665

678

692

708

723 Grade

2

494

548

507

512

518

561

591

595

621

650

675

688

702

715

730 Grade

3

515

483

529

523

526

544

590

625

640

672

705

728

744

759

774 Grade

4

516

482

478

538

512

523

549

604

648

667

699

728

751

767

782 Grade

5

498

515

491

481

556

528

547

581

646

696

716

746

776

800

817 Grade

6

494

500

520

511

506

600

572

604

655

725

783

805

840

874

901 Grade

7

463

500

505

510

515

616

589

630

684

753

808

831

871

906 Grade

8

457

475

515

526

540

545

551

658

638

682

736

805

862

891

933 Grade

9

467

523

493

540

593

599

611

627

755

738

786

841

918

981 1014

Grade

10

458

414

462

502

516

576

593

613

636

765

748

791

846

920

982 Grade

11

433

426

403

426

427

478

537

555

583

611

725

708

747

795

862 Grade

12

388

409

374

381

411

412

469

533

560

591

618

723

707

743

789 Total

6,440

6,471

6,545

6,784

6,922

7,231

7,586

7,982

8,457

8,975

9,478

9,936

10,326

10,756

11,166

Note: The above table does not include students in the JJAEP programs.

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 8

Section B - DEMOGRAPHICS

The demographics section of this report has been prepared to “tell the

demographic story” of the Willis ISD geographic area. This overview integrates

data tables and graphs to portray the characteristics of the District.

Note: This section was developed by integrating several demographic data

sources together to provide an analysis of the district.

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 9

% % %

Total % % %

Hispanic Origin (any race)

Population

99.6

1

in households 36,184 99.6

Demographics Trends

2010-2014-2019

33,331

2010 Census

2014 Estimate

2019 Projection

population race 33,190 Willis ISD 99.6 40,203 40,061 24.2 32,239 89.4 89.5 3,802 26.2 8,740 29,663 3,527 36,041 7.1 10.5 143 0.4 10.6 0.4 10 7.0 9,526 6,827.0 20.5 7,839.0

Race & Hispanic Origin

33,331 36,184 40,203 8,769 4,040.0 0.7 21.7 89.4 4,244 10.6 142 0.4 7.0 23.7 35,817 10 141

in noninstitutional group quarters ₁₀

in families in non-families in group quarters under age 18 other, multi-racial _3,726.0 _11.2

2010 Census

9,162.0 22.8 11.2 4,480.0 11.1

Asian, Pacific Islander _217.0 _0.7 _236.0 _256.0 _0.6

5.3 2,130.0 5.3 American Indian _236.0 _0.7 _265.0 _0.7 _295.0 _0.7 black _1,759.0 _5.3 _1,914.0

2014 Estimate

2019 Projection

29,728.0 33,042.0 82.2 white _27,359.0 _82.1 _82.2 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2010 2014 2019

Population Trends

Population Population in Familes Population under Age 18

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 10

% % % % % % 11,980 76.5 13,060 10,014

Households

23.3 42 1.2 non-families

with person under 18 23.5 3,046

9,167 4,415

Demographics Trends

2010-2014-2019

34 3,390 76.7 5,382 48.2 14,561 11,170 households

2

housing units Willis ISD

2010 Census

2014 Estimate

2019 Projection

76.7

30 2,813

families

with person under 18 48.2

69.6 12.6 17.8 13,704 14,601 1,527 10.5 2,623 10,437 1.1 1.1 23.3 48.2 4,825 10.5 16,284 11,630 owner-occupied renter-occupied 9,5382,442 71.518.0 _2,931 71.418.0 vacant units _1,716

Housing Units

1,724 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2010 2014 2019

Household Trends

Total Households Family Households 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2010 2014 2019

Housing Unit Trends

Total Housing Units Owner Occupied HU

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 11

%

School-age children trends

Early Elem. (ages 5-9)

_34.1%

_32.9%

_32.8%

Late Elem. (ages 10-14)

_33.9%

_34.0%

_33.2%

High School (ages 15-19)

32.0%

33.2%

34.0%

2014 Estimate

2019 Projection

Demographics Trends

2010-2014-2019

age

3 Willis ISD

2010 Census

6.6

5 to 9 years _2,424

_7.3

_2,452

_6.8

_2,636

_6.6

Age, total population

33,331 36,184 40,203 under 5 years _2,392

_7.2

_2,454

_6.8

_2,659 2,667

6.6

15 to 19 years _2,270

_6.8

_2,475

_6.8

_2,729

_6.8

10 to 14 years 2,406

7.2

2,536

7.0

2,588

6.4

25 to 34 years 4,247

12.7

4,357

12.0

4,696

11.7

20 to 24 years _1,780

_5.3

_2,205

_6.1

4,553

11.3

45 to 54 years _4,874

_14.6

_4,986

_13.8

_4,840

_12.0

35 to 44 years 4,113

12.3

4,189

11.6

5,395

13.4

65 to 74 years 2,797

8.4

3,563

9.8

4,428

11.0

55 to 64 years 4,332

13.0

4,988

13.8

2,293

5.7

85 years and over 304

0.9

416

1.1

718

1.8

75 to 84 years _1,310

_3.9

_1,559

_4.3

43.4 2,536 2,475 2,636 2,667 2,729 7,100 7,463 8,032 Median age _38.3 _42.3 2,424 2,406 2,270 2,452

34.1%

32.9%

32.8%

33.9%

34.0%

33.2%

32.0%

33.2%

34.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2010

2014

2019

School

‐

Age

Children

Trends

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 12

%

Median income _$56,732 _$60,671 _$65,544

Per capita income _$25,445 _$26,603 _$28,017

Aggregate income ($M) ₈₄₂ ₉₆₁ _1,125 Average income _$70,297 _$73,610 _$77,283

5.0

$200,000 and over ₃₉₄

_3.3

₅₈₈

_4.5

_1,211

_8.3

$150,000 - 199,999 ₄₅₂

_3.8

₇₁₈

_5.5

₇₃₃

9.5

$125,000 - 149,999 ₅₂₅

_4.4

₆₅₁

_5.0

₇₂₈

_5.0

$100,000 - 124,999 ₉₈₉

_8.3

_1,180

_9.0

_1,380

9.7

$75,000 - 99,999 _1,898

_15.8

_1,764

_13.5

_2,004

_13.8

$60,000 - 74,999 _1,085

_9.1

_1,340

_10.3

_1,409

5.7

$50,000 - 59,999 _1,081

_9.0

_1,161

_8.9

_1,280

_8.8

$45,000 - 49,999 ₆₃₂

_5.3

₆₉₅

_5.3

₈₂₈

4.4

$40,000 - 44,999 ₆₆₇

_5.6

₈₀₂

_6.1

_1,263

_8.7

$35,000 - 39,999 ₇₂₃

_6.0

₈₆₆

_6.6

₆₄₀

5.1

$30,000 - 34,999 ₅₅₅

_4.6

₅₈₂

_4.5

₆₀₃

_4.1

$25,000 - 29,999 ₅₉₆

_5.0

₆₄₀

_4.9

₇₃₈

3.6

$20,000 - 24,999 ₆₂₁

_5.2

₆₉₀

_5.3

₄₂₇

_2.9

$15,000 - 19,999 ₇₃₅

_6.1

₅₄₀

_4.1

₅₃₁

3.0

$10,000 - 14,999 ₄₇₆

_4.0

₄₂₀

_3.2

₃₄₂

_2.3

under $10,000 ₄₂₉

_3.6

₄₂₁

_3.2

₄₄₃

2010 Census

2014 Estimate

2019 Projection

Household income

(households) (households) (households)

Demographics Trends

2010-2014-2019

_income

4 Willis ISD

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

2010

2014

2019

Per Capita income

Median income

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 13

1 person

30.2

2 persons 3 to 4 persons 2 persons 3 to 4 persons All households % 13,060

18.6

%

36.9

4,816

18.7

4,073 11,980 2,233

34.2

43.9

19.3

8.0

20.4

21.4

3,150 1,263 4,151 1,724 1,882

30.0

12.4

461 10,437 564

18.0

566 665

12.1

2,446 5+ persons 5+ persons 5+ persons

35.3

523 625

25.6

17.4

3 to 4 persons 2,442 Renter households Owner households 1 person 424 1,178 2,860 2 persons 862 3,791

17.9

1 person

39.7

31.2 2014 Estimate

2019 Projection

25.4

35.2 Household size

235 1,921 4,540 923 1,897 1,287 2,931 2,623 20.1

36.9

4,416 1,710 3,722 9,538

31.1

13.4

79.6 household size

5 Demographics Trends

2010-2014-2019

Willis ISD

2010 Census

28.6

1,686

18.8

31.2

14,561 2,735

16.3

79.9

36.8

% 20.1 838 5,364

14.5

35.1

13.2

2.75 3.21 Household size 2.77 2.76 4,077 3,974 11,630

39.8

13.2

79.9 1,602

17.6

21.5

non-family size _1.25 _1.25 _1.25 family size _3.24 _3.22 12.0% 21.7% 36.9% 29.2%

2010 Household Size Percentages

1 Person

2 People

3-4

People

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DeskMap Systems, Inc., 7600 W State Hwy 29, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 78628 Page 14

persons age 25+ % % % persons age 16+ % % % 1,291 associate degree _1,710 _7.8 _1,869 17,892 93.8 63.8 63.9 16,346

Labor Force

college degree 1,215 5.5 graduate/professional degree 7.8 11,387 20,120 5.6 36.1 0.0 93.6 6.4 2,073 1,479 63.9 1 18,829 14.2 7.7 5.5 23.6 some college 24,059 22,029

Education

6,906 31.3 3,813 17.3 23.7 5,679 7,493

high school graduate _8,462 _31.4

5,218

Demographics Trends

2010-2014-2019

_{education, labor force}

Willis ISD

17.5

no high school diploma _17.6

2010 Census

2014 Estimate

2019 Projection

6

4,233 26,920 4,712 31.1 23.6 6,363 9.0 36.1 6.2 1,113 91.0 3,831 1,344 14.3 14.4 3,441 31,508 16,779 28,033 1 36.2 0.0 2 0.0 10,139 3,167 14,867 1,479 9,216 employed unemployed in labor force

not in labor force

25,563 in Armed Forces 17.3% 31.3% 31.5% 19.9%

2010 Educational Attainment - Percentages of People Age 25+ Less than HS HS Graduate Some College or Assoc. College Graduate 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2010 201 2019

Labor Force Trends

Population in Labor Force

Employed Unemployed

(16)

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Section C - STUDENT ANALYSIS

PLANNING ZONES

The District has been divided into 75 planning zones. Planning zones provide

smaller areas of geography to allow for the detailed analysis of densities and

distributions of students.

The map on the following page displays the 75 WISD planning zones.

STUDENT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

The October 2014 student population was analyzed geographically to determine

the concentration of students in each planning zone and the general distribution